MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE/SCNTRL MN AND WRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 282047Z - 282245Z
   
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS SE MN/WRN WI. A SEVERE WATCH IS
   NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
   
   TSTMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS NW WI ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WHERE
   CU FIELD IS ALREADY AGITATED...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SCNTRL/SE
   MN AND WCNTRL WI. ALTHOUGH OVERALL BUOYANCY IS MARGINAL PER LATEST
   RUC SOUNDINGS/TAMDAR DATA...MODEST INSOLATION/HEATING COMBINED WITH
   COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-12C TO -16C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
   THE STRONGEST STORMS. RELATIVELY STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL AMBIENT WIND
   FIELDS PER BLUE RIVER WI PROFILER/AREA WSR-88D VWPS WILL LEAD TO
   ORGANIZED/SE MOVING MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
   CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT
   WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/28/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   43759444 44329429 45299279 45809017 45468977 44688981
   43709112 43549342

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1900
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN GA...CNTRL/ERN SC...FL
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 291758Z - 291930Z
   
   ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...MOSTLY CONFINED TO
   AREAS SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NORTH
   CAROLINA INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  VERY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...IS WARMING INTO THE
   90S...CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER
   CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  THUS...DESPITE WEAKLY SHEARED FLOW
   REGIME...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...POSSIBLY SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL... IN STRONGER STORMS.  LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT
   ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR OUTFLOWS/SEA BREEZES...PERHAPS
   SURFACE FRONT...SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AND
   BEYOND THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/29/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   32918449 33328307 33548176 33918090 34388011 34007940
   33287961 32648065 32058140 31028165 30068162 29098126
   28688094 27698054 26688090 25838082 26088142 26828182
   27528201 28228217 28988247 30258330 30458435 30318473
   30908525 31618459 32388454

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1901
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0550 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CA...AZ...NV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 292250Z - 300115Z
   
   STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE INTO THE
   EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH WINDS...
   HAIL... AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE
   ACTIVITY. A WATCH IS NOT IMMINENT BASED ON SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND
   RANDOM NATURE OF ONGOING CONVECTION.
   
   VIGOROUS MULTICELLULAR STORMS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
   SRN CA AND NRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND
   WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER
   OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK ELY WAVE WAS TRANSLATING WNWWD
   ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE DESERTS OF SRN AZ. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
   ACROSS THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY REVEALS A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/SHEAR
   ZONE. AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE BENEATH THIS WEAK SHEAR
   AXIS AND THIS COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND/OR
   SUSTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION DRIFTING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
   EVENING.
   
   LARGE SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING ELY WAVE
   COMPLEX COULD ENHANCE BOTH DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AND COLD POOL
   DEVELOPMENT. THIS COULD RESULT IN HIGH WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
   IN BLOWING DUST OVER PARTS OF SW AZ ALONG I-8 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
   OF HOURS. MORE ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH WINDS AND
   PERHAPS SMALL HAIL FROM BLYTHE NWD TO LAKE HAVASU CITY TO KINGMAN
   THROUGH THE EVENING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/29/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
   
   32131319 33621538 34161574 35041613 35661565 36111538
   36251448 36021371 34721301 34341248 33831172 33341135
   32591146

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR SRN CA AND FAR SRN NV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 301912Z - 302145Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
   EVENING ACROSS THE IMPERIAL VALLEY OF CA AND THE ADJACENT MTNS.
   LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH ANTICIPATED SLOW MOTION
   OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS.
   
   SURFACE MOISTURE AXIS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
   70S...EXTENDS NNNWD FROM GULF OF CA INTO THE IMPERIAL VALLEY OF CA
   AND ERN SLOPES OF THE COASTAL RANGES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
   TO INCREASE NWD INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT AND FAR SRN NV. AT
   19Z...STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
   AND INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SRN
   CA. CONTINUED INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM
   COVERAGE DURING THE PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING.
   
   SYNOPTIC-FORCING IS NOT STRONG...HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
   MID-LEVEL VORT CENTER IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES OF
   SRN CA AT 19Z...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS
   THE INTERIOR DESERTS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...WITH SFC-6KM VALUES
   RANGING FROM 10-20KT. THIS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL EXHIBIT PULSE
   CHARACTERISTICS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING MICROBURSTS THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AROUND 2.0" IN THE
   IMPERIAL VALLEY...AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
   THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/30/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...
   
   32681653 32971676 33571697 33721718 34201754 34611786
   35251798 35741770 35991705 36301628 36621588 36501521
   35951474 35091460 34301454 33631462 33321473 32781471
   32711521

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1903
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0307 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE MN...NRN WI...INTO PARTS OF WRN UPPER
   MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 302007Z - 302200Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   WARM ADVECTION REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN
   ROCKIES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  MODELS SUGGESTS THIS WILL BECOME FOCUSED
   WHERE LOW-LEVEL JET INTERSECTS DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
   NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
   
   SOUTH OF FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING...AND WITH
   FURTHER HEATING/MOISTURE ADVECTION...MIXED LAYER CAPE SEEMS LIKELY
   TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
   SHORTLY.  SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO STRENGTH OF
   CAPPING...BUT INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE
   ALONG/SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AS EARLY AS THE 30/22-31/00Z TIME FRAME.
   THIS MAY BE AIDED BY INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW
   REGIME...ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES PROGRESSING THROUGH MAIN BELT OF
   WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...AND SUBTROPICAL BELT OF
   WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
   
   GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MODERATE
   NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...
   PRIMARILY WITH A LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/30/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   46089272 46579306 47149313 46929204 46909062 46648921
   46168796 45268791 44658842 44598944 44919114 45489217

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1904
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 302036Z - 302230Z
   
   UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING STRENGTH OF INHIBITION EXIST...BUT
   POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE
   INCREASING.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL BELT OF WESTERLIES...EXTENDING
   FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
   APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING CAP SOUTH AND EAST OF
   BROAD/WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
   WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TOWARD 100F ACROSS THIS REGION...BOUNDARY
   LAYER HAS BECOME DEEPLY MIXED...WITH MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR CAPE IN
   EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG.  HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARS TO BE
   FORMING WEST/SOUTH OF BISMARCK...AND...AS THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
   EASTWARD IN FAVORABLE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...POTENTIAL
   FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO EXIST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...THIS COULD BE FAIRLY
   RAPID...WITH MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO
   SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND
   FIELDS.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/30/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   48550145 48819992 47749841 46789767 46179961 46990074
   47610142

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1905
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0613 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 302313Z - 310115Z
   
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE BLACK HILLS
   INTO W-CENTRAL SD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOCALIZED THREAT OF
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED
   NATURE OF THREAT SUGGESTS THAT WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED IN
   THIS AREA.
   
   AT 30/23Z...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SSWWD FROM WEAK CYCLONE CENTER
   /1010MB/ NEAR BIS INTO W-CENTRAL NEB. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME
   DEEPLY-MIXED ACROSS MUCH OF SD ALONG AND WEST OF THE TROUGH
   AXIS...WITH SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ROUGHLY DRY ADIABATIC. THIS HAS
   ALLOWED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
   BLACK HILLS AREA WHERE MUCH OF THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   HAS BEEN FOCUSED DURING THE PAST HOUR. RAPID CITY VAD WIND PROFILE
   INDICATES SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30KT...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED
   CELLS. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 40F SUGGEST
   LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNDRAFTS FROM THESE
   STORMS AS THEY TRACK ESEWD AT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
   EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST
   CORES...HOWEVER...LOW DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF
   ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH
   FOR MUCH SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION FROM THESE CELLS. WEAK SYNOPTIC
   SUPPORT SUGGESTS SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS
   BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO COOL.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/30/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...
   
   43150243 43480328 44000388 44450398 44910378 45100318
   45170231 45110096 45110006 44879984 44379962 43819946
   43559966 43400023

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1910
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 011702Z - 011830Z



TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...WEAKER WAVES ARE EVIDENT IN BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ONTARIO...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH MAY NOT BE DIGGING ACROSS AREAS NORTH/NORTHEAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTING ONGOING INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF GEORGIAN BAY/LAKE HURON.

SURFACE HEATING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS MOIST WITH UPPER 60S DEW POINTS...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MIXED
LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS
LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING
STORMS. 30 TO 40 KT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID EVENTUAL
PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN/
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 20-21Z. MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE CELL MOTIONS/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY
BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS UTICA/ SYRACUSE/ROCHESTER AND AREAS
TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1911
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN WY...THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE...NERN CO...AND
FAR NWRN KS/SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 012101Z - 012300Z



LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED
NATURE OF THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.

AT 2050Z...SURFACE THERMAL LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER SWRN NEB WITH A
CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDING WSWWD INTO THE FRONT RANGE 30N COS.
BOUNDARY LAYER IS WELL MIXED AND VERY DEEP ALONG THIS AXIS WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 100F AND EXTREME SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF
50-60F. ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD DRIFT
GENERALLY EWD AT 5-10KT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONVECTION IS STRONGLY OUTFLOW
DOMINANT...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 20-25KT AND STRONG
SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION POTENTIAL. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT
MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DRY MICROBURST ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF SHORT-LIVED
BUT LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1916
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0913 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ME...NH...VT...NRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 021413Z - 021645Z



MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SEWD ACROSS SRN QUE WITH A 50 KT H5 JET AT MOOSONEE. STRONG UPPER
MOTION IN EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IS ALREADY SUPPORTING AN
INTENSIFYING BAND OF TSTMS OVER SERN QUE. VSBL SATL SUGGESTS THAT
THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL DESTABILIZE
RAPIDLY OWING TO INSOLATION AND 60-65F DEW POINTS. MAGNITUDE OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE UNCAPPED/INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING STORMS AS THEY
HEAD TOWARD ME...NRN VT AND NRN NH THROUGH EARLY AFTN.

GIVEN FAST WNWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME...TSTMS WILL TEND TO
ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH LEWPS/BOWS. THUS...WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK.

THE 1630Z OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK FOR
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...LIKELY PARTS OF ME INTO NRN VT/NH. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCHES MAY FOLLOW FOR PARTS OF THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTN.

[wxwatcher91]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1917
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO NRN NY STATE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 696...

VALID 021829Z - 022000Z

SATL INDICATES THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS QUICKLY MOVED
INTO ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK AND WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY 21Z.
STRONG TSTMS ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH WITH STRONG WNWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. VERTICAL SHEAR HAS APPARENTLY BEEN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS PER CARIBOU RADAR.

FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THE NRN PARTS OF ME BY
21Z. 18Z MESOANALYSIS...HOWEVER...CONTINUES TO SHOW A RESERVOIR OF
MID 60S DEW POINTS ADVECTING NEWD UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY/SRN QUE
AND INSTABILITY IS GROWING AGAIN OWING TO HEATING BENEATH COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. CU STREETS OBSERVED IN VSBL SATL WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP INTO CBS AND DROP SEWD TOWARD NRN PARTS OF NY/VT/NH LATER
THIS AFTN...VERY SIMILAR TO 12Z NAM SOLUTION. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS WRN ME INTO NRN NY STATE. FARTHER
N...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE MAY PROVE DETRIMENTAL IN
SUSTAINING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS NRN/CNTRL ME THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN/EVE.

MAIN SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS/SUPERCELLS.

..RACY.. 08/02/2005


ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...

43307087 43467217 43817428 44987431 44987087 46916749
44906736

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1920
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0553 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SE MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 022253Z - 030030Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
   CENTRAL/SE MT. SEVERE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED
   AND A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THOUGH THIS AREA WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
   
   A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING
   ACROSS S CENTRAL MT TO THE W OF BILLINGS.  WEAK ELY/NELY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CONVECTION WITH MODEST
   STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
   EXPANDING COLD POOL.  THOUGH INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK /MUCAPE
   VALUES AOB 500 J/KG/...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
   STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOW WINDS.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 08/02/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...
   
   45290512 45070706 45100828 45530873 46110914 46480921
   46700801 46650574 46300512 45720486

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0655 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 022355Z - 030130Z
   
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SWD
   DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS N CENTRAL ND. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN
   THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   AN ISOLATED CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS DEVELOPED JUST N OF
   A SURFACE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS BOTTINEAU/MCHENRY COUNTIES.  SWD
   DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE TRIPLE POINT
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN ACROSS
   WEAKENED THIS AREA BY DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE
   BOUNDARIES.  STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000
   J/KG/ IS PRESENT NEAR AND E OF THE ONGOING STORMS...WHILE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.  PRESENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY BY ROUGHLY 01Z ACROSS CENTRAL/N CENTRAL ND.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 08/02/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   46969972 47220014 48260060 48750078 49010063 49019869
   47979848 47479875 47099913

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1924
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY STATE AND PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 031627Z - 031900Z



TSTMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. ATTM...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT EVOLUTION WILL BE
MONITORED.

VSBL SATL SHOWS CU FIELD BEGINNING TO EXPAND BENEATH CONVECTIVE
MID-CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 JETLET TRANSLATING THROUGH SERN
ONTARIO. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS LOCATED SW OF A BACKDOOR BAROCLINIC
ZONE WAS BECOMING UNSTABLE OWING TO RESIDUAL SURFACE DEW POINTS OF
65-70F AND INSOLATION. COMBINATION OF UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND A
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT TIED TO THE SPEED MAX...TSTM INITIATION
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING ACROSS ERN NY AND PARTS OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY FAVOR TERRAIN AND THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY FROM VCNTY KSLK-KGFL AND SEWD INTO MA.

THOUGH THE FLOW HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 24-HRS...PRESENCE OF AT
LEAST 30-40 KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING AROUND
THE PARENT SERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH MAY ENCOURAGE ISOLD TSTMS TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MOREOVER...HOT TEMPERATURES AND LARGE
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN WILL AUGMENT COLD
DOWNDRAFTS.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1928
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN WI...ERN IA AND NWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 032016Z - 032145Z



ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A THERMAL RIDGE FROM NEB ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
IA INTO CNTRL WI AT MID-AFTN. MLCAPES WITHIN THIS AXIS WERE AROUND
3500 J/KG OWING TO LOW-MID 70S DEW POINTS BENEATH VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT. AN ISOLD TSTM HAD FORMED RECENTLY OVER NERN IA ALONG A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO EXTEND NEWD
INTO SWRN WI AND RECENT VSBL IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS EAST
OF KLSE VCNTY THIS BOUNDARY.

TSTMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP NEWD FROM NERN IA INTO SWRN WI THROUGH
LATE AFTN. BLUE RIVER PROFILER SHOWS MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
THROUGH ABOUT 2 KM /OWING TO SWLY LLJ/...THEN A WEAKENING PROFILE
ABOVE. THIS IS LIMITING THE OVERALL VERTICAL SHEAR TO 30 OR 35 KTS.
THUS...MAINLY MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD RESULT. BUT...GIVEN
HOT AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS HAIL AS THEY MOVE SEWD INTO SCNTRL WI/NWRN IL
LATER THIS EVE. A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF STORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP/INTENSIFY.

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1202 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES THROUGH SRN NEW
   ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 051702Z - 051900Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
   COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 20-21Z.  NEED FOR A WW IS
   NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WITH SEVERE THREAT MOSTLY HIGHLY
   LOCALIZED OR MINOR...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
   ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR.  TEMPERATURES ARE RISING
   THROUGH THE 90S...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING NEAR 70F...
   CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. UPSTREAM...
   INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF
   SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS STEADILY ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH
   VERMONT/SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.  FRONT
   SEEMS LIKELY TO MERGE INTO PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BY THE 20-21Z TIME
   FRAME...MUCH AS PROGGED BY MODELS...ACROSS OR NEAR THE
   PHILADELPHIA/NEW YORK CITY AND BOSTON AREAS.  COUPLED WITH
   WEAKENING/EASTWARD SHIFT OF HIGH-LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE NORTHERN MID
   ATLANTIC COAST...THIS  IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
   INCREASING/INTENSIFYING BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. THOUGH WESTERLY MEAN
   FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 30 KT...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED
   DOWNBURSTS...PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/05/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
   
   40817571 41237506 41997329 42657235 43737155 44287044
   43857007 41877073 40687281 39827467 39747558 40257658

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1941
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0945 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MN INTO W-CNTRL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703...

VALID 081445Z - 081615Z



POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH
MOST INTENSE STORMS THROUGH 16Z. SHOULD CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
CONTINUE...WW RE-ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED.

CLUSTER OF TSTMS IN PROGRESS ACROSS WW 703 HAVE NOT ORGANIZED AS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY NOTED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS
SUGGEST THAT SOME AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF TSTM COMPLEX WHERE
LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING IS TAKING PLACE. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT OWING TO DIURNAL
WEAKENING OF WLY LLJ AND SWD DISPLACEMENT OF STORMS FROM PRIMARY
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES HAVE DISCOURAGED STORM ORGANIZATION THUS FAR.

ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS THROUGH 16Z. A REPLACEMENT
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1946
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0910 AM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN UP OF MI INTO NRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091410Z - 091545Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E
   OF WW 705 BY 15Z AND AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WW WILL LIKELY BE
   REQUIRED.
   
   SHORT SEGMENT BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING
   OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN UP OF MI INTO NERN WI WITH AN OBSERVED
   MOTION OF 270/45-50 KTS. 12Z GRB SOUNDING INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF
   RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER WHICH
   WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG. MODIFICATION OF THIS
   SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS WITHIN IMMEDIATE INFLOW AIR
   MASS SUGGESTS THAT THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS IS LIKELY BECOMING SURFACE
   BASED WITH A RECENT REPORT OF WIND DAMAGE IN VILAS COUNTY WI
   VERIFYING THIS NOTION.
   
   ASSUMING CURRENT SYSTEM MOTION...EXTRAPOLATION TAKES LEADING EDGE OF
   BOW ECHO E OF WW 705 BY 15Z. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE DOWNSTREAM CLOUD
   COVER /PER VISIBLE SATELLITE/ ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY
   OCCUR...SUGGESTING AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT EWD ACROSS
   CNTRL/ERN UP OF MI AND POSSIBLY NRN LOWER MI.
   
   ..MEAD.. 08/09/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...
   
   46638740 46428366 45078397 45338750

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1947
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 AM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/NERN NEB/SWRN MN/NWRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091625Z - 091800Z
   
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
   THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
   FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A PERSISTENT AREA OF TSTMS OVER
   PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB ALONG SWRN FRINGE OF
   STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
   NRN/CNTRL MN. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AND
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
   ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS
   AFTERNOON. CURRENT PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE THAT STRONGEST
   DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR RESIDES OVER MN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OBSERVED
   WITH SWWD EXTENT.
   
   THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT BEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED...ROTATING
   UPDRAFTS WILL BE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG SRN MN
   PORTION FRONTAL ZONE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY TEND TO BE MORE
   MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE SWWD INTO NERN NEB...THOUGH POTENTIAL WILL
   EXIST FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 08/09/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
   
   42709948 43189876 43739767 44449619 44769455 44489372
   44009354 43279395 42459496 41559822 42079958

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1948
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 AM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MN INTO NWRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091651Z - 091815Z
   
   LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
   LIKELY WITH INTENSIFYING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   NE-SW ORIENTED BANDS OF TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF
   HOUR OR SO E AND W OF STC WITH A GENERAL EWD MOVEMENT OF 30-35 KTS.
   CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TO
   THE N OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MPX 0.5 DEGREE BASE
   REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD...THUS
   INTENSIFYING STORMS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. SOME AIR MASS
   MODIFICATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IF SUFFICIENT DIABATIC
   HEATING CAN OCCUR ACROSS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER NWRN WI.
   
   RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVER NRN/CNTRL MN IN CONJUNCTION WITH 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED...SEVERE
   STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   LARGE HAIL...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
   STORMS BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 08/09/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   45089491 45669497 46209413 46449259 46629111 46238997
   45788994 45059085 44809203 44699406