Historic outbreak Sunday: The aftermath

[CrazyC83]

Come to think of it, the northern Plains (i.e. Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, northern Iowa, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan) have a snow and ice event coming on the back side of the same storm...

[WindRunner]

Storm that produced the Ray County damage now about to move into IL, two more reports of a tornado from that storm in Randolph County and Monroe County line, with hail reported around an inch.

EDIT: All of E Kansas, northern and central MO, and central and southern IL just went under a tornado watch until 11pm CST. Mentions potential for damaging and long-track tornadoes. Gonna be a rough day (and night).

[weatherlover427]

Sounds like a PDS tornado watch might be issued soon...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...ERN OK...SW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 121729Z - 121930Z

SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE FROM
ERN KS TO CNTRL OK. DAMAGING TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS INITIATE AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DRYLINE ORIENTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
FROM SCNTRL KS TO SOUTHWEST OK. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS VERY WEAK AND STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AS
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AS A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX NOSES
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. IN ADDITION...STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL PROFILERS WILL CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. LONG TRACK STRONG TO VIOLENT
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP
AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS ERN OK AND ERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH
WIND DAMAGE ALSO LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS

..BROYLES.. 03/12/2006

[WindRunner]

Here's the text for it . . . and the red part is also in red on the SPC site . . .

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 73...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

CORRECTED FOR WATCH REPLACEMENTS

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
EASTERN KANSAS
MOST OF MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 1000
PM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF EMPORIA
KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF DECATUR ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 69...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER
70...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 71...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH NUMBER 72. WATCH NUMBER 69 70 71 72 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 1155 AM CST.

DISCUSSION...RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A PARTICULARLY INTENSE UPPER TROUGH
AND JET STREAM MOVING INTO CENTRAL U.S. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE
HAIL...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING LONG TRACK TORNADOES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL INITIATE VICINITY OF
DRY LINE ERN KS AND ADDITIONALLY VICINITY WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD
ACROSS MO INTO IL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.

[CrazyC83]

Wow, this could be Super Outbreak II at this rate!!!

[Stormy1]

Temps in Indy are rising quickly and the air is really thick (81%). I'm really surprised that with the threat area to the west of us, they haven't given us a tornado watch yet. Surely they will later?

[Skywatch_NC]

Mercy...the time length of those tornado watches! Wowsers!

When on average...one lasts to around 6 hrs.

Eric

[CrazyC83]

Temps in Indy are rising quickly and the air is really thick (81%). I'm really surprised that with the threat area to the west of us, they haven't given us a tornado watch yet. Surely they will later?

Almost certainly later this afternoon as the frontal boundary moves eastward. I wouldn't be surprised to see a major outbreak all the way to the Appalachians, and stretching from the Gulf Coast to the central Great Lakes.

The northern frontal boundary runs along a line from about Sioux City, Iowa to Appleton, Wisconsin to Traverse City, Michigan to Sudbury, Ontario. Anything below that is fair game for severe weather...

[WindRunner]

Tornado watch should be out shortly for E OK and SE KS.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...ERN OK...SW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 121729Z - 121930Z

SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE FROM
ERN KS TO CNTRL OK. DAMAGING TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS INITIATE AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DRYLINE ORIENTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
FROM SCNTRL KS TO SOUTHWEST OK. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS VERY WEAK AND STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AS
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AS A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX NOSES
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. IN ADDITION...STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL PROFILERS WILL CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. LONG TRACK STRONG TO VIOLENT
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP
AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS ERN OK AND ERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH
WIND DAMAGE ALSO LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS

..BROYLES.. 03/12/2006


ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

34439643 34679715 35169733 35459726 36429707 37439711
38359715 38599644 38669508 38269445 36769432 35189450
34489487 34449552

[6SpeedTA95]

Well whoever had this thing shifted west yesterday looks to be damn close to on the money. we may get some rain afterall...also this dryline is firming up here in Oklahoma so we may have our own weather to deal with.

[CrazyC83]

I'm updating my prediction map now - enlargement of the Level 5 Alert (Extreme risk) area, and all the other outbreak threats now cover large areas.

[cheezyWXguy]

boy I hope that dryline fires up some storms in the Dallas area...Ive been waiting quite a while to get one of the big hailstorms!

[Skywatch_NC]

Well whoever had this thing shifted west yesterday looks to be damn close to on the money. we may get some rain afterall...also this dryline is firming up here in Oklahoma so we may have our own weather to deal with.

I think it was WaitingForSiren.

[wx247]

I am surprised there are no watches for Oklahoma yet. All in due time I guess.

[CrazyC83]

I've updated my prediction - NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST.



Notice the Level 5 area has enlarged greatly and the outbreak area is now enormous. I see the cells continuing to develop and become severe right into late this evening, and all along the line.

I'm thinking this thing is going to go all the way to the Appalachians, and stretch from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes!

[6SpeedTA95]

I am surprised there are no watches for Oklahoma yet. All in due time I guess.

I was just thinking that, I've been following the mesoscale discussions and really I'd have expected a tornado watch by about 12:15 or so...owell

[6SpeedTA95]

I've updated my prediction - NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST.



Notice the Level 5 area has enlarged greatly and the outbreak area is now enormous. I see the cells continuing to develop and become severe right into late this evening, and all along the line.

I'm thinking this thing is going to go all the way to the Appalachians, and stretch from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes!

-removed- a little??????? Thats a VERY large area for an extreme risk...granted its your forcast not mine...but man I hope thats wayyy wrong that would spell bad news for EVERYONE in that extreme risk area.

[CrazyC83]

I think what will happen is the supercells will hold together and keep firing up this afternoon, and this evening will still be around for the Ohio Valley.

[cheezyWXguy]

HOLY CRAP!!! if that turns out right then im in level4!!!

[senorpepr]

The probability tables for PDS Tornado Watch #73...

Tornadoes...

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes --- High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes --- High (70%)

Wind...
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events --- (90%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots --- High (70%)

Hail...
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events --- High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches --- High (70%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind...
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events --- (<2%)