Caribbean - Central America Weather

[caribepr]

Well, here is one for the record books (a specific mention of Culebra about rain)!!!! This was the official word at 8:26 (now 9:11)

Now
Scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms were occurring and will continue over these islands. The heaviest rainfall was observed across Culebra where Doppler radar indicated around two inches of rain already fallen. The chances for additional rainfall during the rest of the evening and overnight are high. Be aware of frequent and intense lighting.

AMAZING!!!!! It sure did rain!

[caribepr]

The wind has really picked up and the rain is comin' down. The wind is out of the west, backward to usual. Sounds and looks like we're in for it tonight.

[cycloneye]

Wow,what a night here as torrential downpours with plenty of lighting and thunder came to San Juan from around 8:00 PM.But after 11:00 PM it was all gone as it moved east.Now look what is instore for us.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
644 AM AST THU OCT 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PUERTO RICO
TODAY...WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 16.5 N AND 62.7 WEST THIS MORNING...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY. THE CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOWED SOME
SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BECAME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. AS PER TPC OUTLOOK AND
COORDINATION THIS MORNING...THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEREFORE IT WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TODAY. EITHER WAY...EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE VI AND PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY...AND THEREFORE HAVE
UPGRADED THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IN TOMORROWS
FORECAST. OVERALL...A VERY WET END TO THE WEEK AND WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE IN STORE.


We will have to watch if this turns into a depression but regardless plenty of rain is in the cards for tommorow and saturday.

[caribepr]

The ground in my yard looks like it got hit by a few million bb's, it's strange to see the imprint of the actual raindrops! Incredible storm, and I'm curious to find out how much we got last night, after 2 inches yesterday afternoon...along with what is coming.
And...the gardens ARE happy! I was afraid the plants were going to be beaten up

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 PM AST THU OCT 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...DRY AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY WHICH HELPED LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL FA.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY FROM THE
WAVE-UPPER TROUGH INTERACTION. THE TROUGH AXIS IS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND HAD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE TODAY
WHICH HELPED LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND SLOW THE PROGRESSION
OF THE WAVE ENERGY. APPEARS AS IF A LOW HAS STARTED TO EMERGE
JUST WEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEPEND ON THE MOVEMENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE GRADUALLY
WEST NORTHWEST AND PASS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL FA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. TIMING OF THIS TRACK IS ANOTHER DIFFICULTY IN THE
FORECAST...CURRENTLY...GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW EXISTS...BUT A
GENERAL SLOW WEST NORTHWEST MOTION TOWARD THE LOCAL FA IS EVIDENT.
FOR NOW...HELD OFF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL FRIDAY
WITH THE ANTICIPATION THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY. THIS FEATURE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL FA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



A somewhat less rain event will unfold starting tommorow as the main area of precipitation will pass to our north.But anyway we can see scattered showers and a few thunderstorms rolling in but the real bad weather has dodged us.

[caribepr]

It is raining and blowing like the bats out of hell here...all my little trees are bending over and I'm scared some of my container plants are going to blow over and spill out. The ground is about an inch deep in water now, and there is no sign of let up yet.

[cycloneye]

It was a very stormy afternoon in San Juan witth a almost 2 hour downpour,lighting and thunder.But all has calmed down and clearing skies are seen.

[cycloneye]

I see that Culebra is under a big thunderstorm as I type this.MJ,report when you can about what is going on there as that is excessive stuff,maybe around 3-4 inches.

[caribepr]

Pretty crazy. My friend Linda and I went out in it, just because we had cabin fever and wanted to see what was going on. We straddled a van stalled and did sidewalk driving to town....cars stalled out along the way and everyone soaking wet. I don't know how much rain we got but it was coming down strong for a long long time. We were waiting for some friends on a boat coming back from Fajardo, they made it back safe...we were worried a bit. But while it is still raining, it's slowed. A few hours ago, my yard looked like a fast running creek, with water 3 inches above the ground and running to the sea...it's been a strange evening Luis.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190846
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST THU OCT 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...QUICKSCAT DATA LAST NIGHT INDICATED THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAVE LINGERED SINCE SEVERAL DAYS AGO...JUST
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO THE GFS40
SOLUTION NEAR THAT TIME. THE 200MB STREAMLINES/WINDS ANALYSIS
CONTINUED TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS.
225MB-100MB SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALSO SHOWED SPEED CONVERGENCE
TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH CENTER AND ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE U.S.V.I....THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE IN
THE VICINITY WITH A TREND TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY OF THE LOCAL AREA
LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WHILE THIS HAPPENS...STRONG DIFLUENCE ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE ATLANTIC AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE U.S.V.I. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A SIMILAR
SCENARIO WILL PERSIST UNTIL FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY WHEN THE
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE
NORTH...AWAY OF THE AREA. ALL THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOW LEVEL SOUTH
FLOW WHICH MAY INDUCE AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTH...NORTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TODAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE JUST NORTH OF SAN JUAN
AND A TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSING OVER
THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY

&&

.MARINE...UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND THE
ATLANTIC WATERS CAN PRODUCE DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH
ROUGH SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHOWERS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WHICH MAY BE INTENSE.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF LOW CEILING AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY MAY AGAIN RESULT
IN FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA AND
SOME RIVERS GETTING OUT OF THE BANKS.


Expect more rain later today as the trough lingers.Wow MJ,it was not good for you what occured last night.Hopefully today will rain less but as long the trough lingers,we can expect some more.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190846
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST THU OCT 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...QUICKSCAT DATA LAST NIGHT INDICATED THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAVE LINGERED SINCE SEVERAL DAYS AGO...JUST
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO THE GFS40
SOLUTION NEAR THAT TIME. THE 200MB STREAMLINES/WINDS ANALYSIS
CONTINUED TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS.
225MB-100MB SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALSO SHOWED SPEED CONVERGENCE
TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH CENTER AND ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE U.S.V.I....THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE IN
THE VICINITY WITH A TREND TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY OF THE LOCAL AREA
LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WHILE THIS HAPPENS...STRONG DIFLUENCE ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE ATLANTIC AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE U.S.V.I. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A SIMILAR
SCENARIO WILL PERSIST UNTIL FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY WHEN THE
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE
NORTH...AWAY OF THE AREA. ALL THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOW LEVEL SOUTH
FLOW WHICH MAY INDUCE AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTH...NORTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TODAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE JUST NORTH OF SAN JUAN
AND A TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSING OVER
THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY

&&

.MARINE...UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND THE
ATLANTIC WATERS CAN PRODUCE DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH
ROUGH SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHOWERS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WHICH MAY BE INTENSE.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF LOW CEILING AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY MAY AGAIN RESULT
IN FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA AND
SOME RIVERS GETTING OUT OF THE BANKS.


Expect more rain later today as the trough lingers.Wow MJ,it was not good for you what occured last night.Hopefully today will rain less but as long the trough lingers,we can expect some more.

[caribepr]

I gather from stormcarib.com that it was even worse in the USVI's...schools are closed on some islands there today, etc. (as I recall from living there, a lot of them are pretty leaky).

The water is standing on the ground in parts of my yard. I haven't made it out yet to see anything else, but more rain is not good news at this point. Guess it's not a choice thing though!

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC007-021-025-029-031-061-063-119-127-139-192145-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
340 PM AST THU OCT 19 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING...
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS
CAROLINA
CAGUAS
AGUAS BUENAS
GURABO
SAN JUAN
TRUJILLO ALTO
BAYAMON
GUAYNABO
RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 315 PM AST...A TRAINED WEATHER OBSERVER AS WELL A SATELLITE
IMAGERY REPORTED AND INDICATED SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING OR MOVING QUICKLY TOWARDS THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF RIO GRANDE...CENTRAL GUAYNABO...EAST CENTRAL BAYAMON...
TRUJILLO ALTO...SOUTH CENTRAL SAN JUAN...SOUTHEASTERN CAROLINA AND
CENTRAL CANOVANAS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS...AS WELL AS LAND ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS. MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS
WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A
FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE

I will report later on as I will shut down my PC due to the strong thunderstorm now.

[caribepr]

We've only had overcast skies, with a short period of sunshine so far, and no rain. BUT, I just hung up some laundry so I figure that will do it! My bay is one big muddy mess There was some street damage and a lot of dirt run off from construction areas up in the hills. I've been home all day though so I don't really know much else that's going on.
I hope all stay safe during this rain over there...if it's as bad as it was here, there will be some serious flooding and mudslides. Stay safe Luis!

[cycloneye]

It didn't rained hard in San Juan this afternoon,but in the suburbs it was very stormy with immense traffic jams all around the metroflex.There haved been some rivers that rised to close to getting out of their banks.

[caribepr]

It just started raining here again. Not like yesterday/last night, but pretty strong. And I'm hearing thunder in the distance.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 202123 RRA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 PM AST FRI OCT 20 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM HISPANOLA
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO INTO THE
ATLANTIC...AND AN ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST...WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER
THE LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE COMBINATION OF THE BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE AND ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX
ARE CURRENTLY THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION AS THE PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO TRAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH
OF PUERTO RICO BY EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO WHERE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PARTICULARLY THE ISLANDS OF SAINT CROIX...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. ON SATURDAY...THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA...DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER DAY OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.



We had another round of heavy rain with thunderstorms this afternoon with rainfall total of around 2 inches.It looks like the weekend will be much of the same especially in the afternoons.

[caribepr]

Hmm. We had a beautifully sunny day for the most part (it was overcast this morning) with barely any breeze and NO rain at all.

[cycloneye]

No rain last night,but a new round of rain will occur this afternoon.High clouds are over San Juan this morning.

[caribepr]

Same here. I'm opening the cart this morning and we'll see what happens!