Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 AM AST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ONLY ALLOWING FOR ONLY ISOLATED TYPICAL AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON
AND NOCTURNAL PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS. THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL ENJOY PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEEK IN STORE AS MID LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS A CAP
ON ANY LARGER SCALE SYSTEMS TO PENETRATE THE REGION. NO
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED NEXT 7 DAYS...SO LOOKING
FOR VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
THE MAJORITY OF THE ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A
RETURN TO CLIMO EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT. GFS STEADILY BACKING OFF
OF FRONT SWEEPING INTO REGION BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD...SO KEPT
CLIMO GRIDS IN THE EXTENDED.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT TJMZ WHICH COULD
SEE A MVFR CIG 18-22Z IN VCSH.


&&

.MARINE...WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SWELL ENERGY TO PERSIST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN MUCH LONGER PERIOD ENERGY (12-14 SECONDS)
ARRIVES FROM THE SAME DIRECTION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
BREAKERS AND COASTAL RUN UP FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER SET OF
WEAK NELY SWELLS FOR THURSDAY BEFORE NWLY SWELLS BEHIND MID
LATITUDE SYSTEM ARRIVE EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

[msbee]

quiet week in store.
I like that!

[cycloneye]

quiet week in store.
I like that!

And an important week as its Thanksgiving.For a change good weather for us.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED...AND A SUBTROPICAL JET SEGMENT MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRESENT CONDITIONS
WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE PREVAILING NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND AS A RESULT TRANSPORT BRIEF PERIODS OF
QUICK PASSING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS AND
COASTAL AREAS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN INDUCED TROUGH JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL HELP CREATE A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TO THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INITIALIZED
FAIRLY WELL TODAY...AND ALSO SUGGESTS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE SO FAR EXPECTED TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THAT TIME. THEREFORE...EXPECT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC AND STALL WHILE DISSIPATING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION BY
LATE SATURDAY...WITH ITS FRONTAL REMNANTS EVENTUALLY SINKING
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY OF
THE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...DO NOT FORESEE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TO SEE IF HOW IT UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. VCSH ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH 23/22Z IN TJMZ...AND
TJPS. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT TNCM...TKPK...AND TJSJ
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 24/12Z. VA EMISSIONS CONTINUE TO EXTEND
FROM SOUFRIERE HILLS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM THE EAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HRS SHOULD KEEP ASH EMISSIONS WELL SOUTH OF LOCAL FLYING
AREA.

[cycloneye]

Good night to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1002 PM AST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC...AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...AND A SUBTROPICAL JET
SEGMENT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE PRESENT CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN AN OVERALL
SUBSIDENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS THIS
EVENING SHOWED ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER
LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS EVENING. A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING EASTWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WILL
MAINTAIN A QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FORMS NEAR THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
COMBINATION OF THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. VA EMISSIONS CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM SOUFRIERE
HILLS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HRS SHOULD KEEP ASH EMISSIONS WELL SOUTH OF LOCAL
FLYING AREA.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Gusty,what is going on today in terms of the strike in the butterfly island?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
227 AM AST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN STORE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIEST CONDITIONS OF THE SEASON ONGOING AS TPW
IMAGERY AND EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS PWATS HAVE PLUMMETED TO LOWER
THAN 1.50 INCHES AND CONTINUE TO DROP. STRONG MID LAYER
RIDGE...ALSO EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY AND SOUNDING SHOW VERY DRY AIR
PUSHING LOWER DOWN TO THE 700 MB LAYER AS SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO BUILD. NO CHANGE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS GFS AND NAM12
IN SOLID AGREEMENT OVER NEXT FEW DAYS BUILDING DEEP LAYERED HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CTRL ATLC. THIS WILL SERVE TO
BLOCK NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK...KEEPING
MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF LOCAL AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IN
THE MID LEVELS...AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER CLIMO POSITION IN
CTRL ATLC...CLIMO WIND PATTERN ALREADY BACK IN PLACE. VERY LOW
POPS IN FORECAST NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Gustywind]

Good morning to all.Gusty,what is going on today in terms of the strike in the butterfly island?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
227 AM AST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN STORE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIEST CONDITIONS OF THE SEASON ONGOING AS TPW
IMAGERY AND EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS PWATS HAVE PLUMMETED TO LOWER
THAN 1.50 INCHES AND CONTINUE TO DROP. STRONG MID LAYER
RIDGE...ALSO EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY AND SOUNDING SHOW VERY DRY AIR
PUSHING LOWER DOWN TO THE 700 MB LAYER AS SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO BUILD. NO CHANGE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS GFS AND NAM12
IN SOLID AGREEMENT OVER NEXT FEW DAYS BUILDING DEEP LAYERED HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CTRL ATLC. THIS WILL SERVE TO
BLOCK NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK...KEEPING
MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF LOCAL AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IN
THE MID LEVELS...AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER CLIMO POSITION IN
CTRL ATLC...CLIMO WIND PATTERN ALREADY BACK IN PLACE. VERY LOW
POPS IN FORECAST NEXT FEW DAYS.

Hi Luis numerous "strong actions" are expected today with this big strike... schools should be close and some administrations, poweroutage could appear, for the water too... but nothing to report here for the moment given the latest news (radio). Let's hope it stays like that.
I will keep you informed as usual if anything happened.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Two streak days of strike are expected (today and tommorow) given the latest news of our periodic... It's a " warning strike" for the moment!
I will continue today to keep your informed as possible.
Link: http://www.guadeloupe.franceantilles.fr ... -57621.php
French version for those who are interrested

[Gustywind]

Not much "action" today... only some administrations were in strike. Whereas looks like some more "action " tommorow... with people in the streets of Guadeloupe is anticipated given the demonstrators. Let's wait and see.

[cycloneye]

Thanks Gusty for the reports.Hopefully tommorow stays as it was today over there and all is in peace.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
158 PM AST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS ATLANTIC TO MAINTAIN STABLE
AND SUBSIDENT PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH
SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FRONTAL TROUGH TO
APPROACH PUERTO RICO FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION..NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE SHORT OR LONG TERM INHERITED
FORECAST. SATELLITE SHHOWS NARROW BANDS OF TRADE WIND CUMULUS
ALIGNED FROM ENE TO WSW ACROSS THE LEEWARDS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE
WHICH SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY AS
IT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT SURFACE TO REMAIN AS
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY PROVIDING LOCAL AREA WITH
GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS. ONLY THE TYPICAL NIGHTIME AND EARLY
MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG EAST AND NORTH
PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AFTERNOONS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND AS THE WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY ON THURSDAY IT SHOULD DISPLACE TO THE WEST AND WEST
INTERIOR. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY...AND ONLY ON SUNDAY IT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
MORE SHOWERS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...ALL AIRPORT SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[msbee]

Not much "action" today... only some administrations were in strike. Whereas looks like some more "action " tommorow... with people in the streets of Guadeloupe is anticipated given the demonstrators. Let's wait and see.

Gusty
hope things will be OK tomorrow. what exactly are they striking for?

[Gustywind]

Not much "action" today... only some administrations were in strike. Whereas looks like some more "action " tommorow... with people in the streets of Guadeloupe is anticipated given the demonstrators. Let's wait and see.

Gusty
hope things will be OK tomorrow. what exactly are they striking for?

Tkanks Msbee It's a long story Msbee and that could be very complex to explain it, but i will try to sum up for you and the others .

The demonstrators are fighthing against the cost of life (for example the price very expensive of the fuel, etc.).
This is a group of associations (not a political one in appareance but most of people here are very doubtfull about that)called the LKP.
Its demonstrators have signed a sort of chart with the French Governement to sease the conflict, and they noticied that the points signed the 4 th of March are not in vigor or applicated by the French Governement. Consequently they want French Government to respect all these points who have been signed. And that's why they're encouraging everybody to go in the street and shouted that French Governement is not respectfull about that.

Whereas, interresting thing to note is that this institution used frequently the physical strength to intimidate everybody in the streets by blocking the roads and some areas with debris of cars and burning it, slam many things etc to make troubles to be heard and have the solutions of their revendications. They have forced many shops (during February) to close by using the power, the abuses, thus menacing too!

I have just check the latest news of the TV and the LKP leader said that tommorow could me more muscled than today and they have all the strategies to showed that they're present. Whereas a journalist analysit tkinks that this organisation has lost a bit its vigor stedaily compared to February or he's waiting for a next strategy. Whereas, he said too that people could be a bit feed up with that way to discuss divergents opinions in the butterfly island.
In my opinion that's maybe why most of them does not seem interresting about another big and long strike It's boring creazy and maybe... not always neccessary especially when you use the violence to be heard .
A big walk in the streets is expected tommorow much more than 400 people for the LKP (evaluation of the day 24 th of November).
They said that tommorow could be stronger that today. For the journalists, people have not make much contribution and that was a very weak participation.
Let's wait and see where this strike will go and ended. Hope things will be OK tomorrow my friends, honestly we don't need that [conflicts,violence] here in GUADELOUPE!!!
I will continue to keep your informed as possible.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 242002
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
402 PM AST TUE NOV 24 2009

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE ADJACENT
WATERS DETECTED. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT ABOUT 15 TO
20 MPH.

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A STRONG AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

MARINE ISSUES ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINERS IN SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF WINDS MEET OR
EXCEED 18 KNOTS.

$$

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 242330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



[b]000
AXNT20 KNHC 250001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 6N25W 8N40W 7N50W 8N60W.
AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 16N40W TO
6N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 21W-37W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS..AND E OF THE AXIS FROM
8N-17N BETWEEN 27W-37W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG
42W IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT WHICH IS ENHANCING THE
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ALONG THE
ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT. AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OFF THE
TEXAS COAST STRETCHING FROM 30N93W NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
TO 25N98W S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS CONTINUING NW ALONG THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 27N102W. RECENT LIGHTNING AND RADAR DATA
INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE IN
THE NERN TIP OF MEXICO FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 97W-100W. LIGHTNING
DATA ALSO INDICATES ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER MOST OF THE N AND CENTRAL
GULF FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 88W-96W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS AHEAD
OF THIS LARGE AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N82W N OF FORT MYERS
CONTINUING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 26N87W 23N94W. LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SRN
PORTION OF THE FRONT FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 90W-94W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT AXIS. THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A LONGWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING SWD OVER
THE FAR WRN GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND WRN CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST AND DIFFLUENT WSW FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WRN
GULF AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
INTO THE WRN ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 78W-85W AFFECTING MOST
OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND ERN NICARAGUA ENHANCED BY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED OVER JAMAICA...CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...AND THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN ATLC FROM 31N73W ALONG
29N76W TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AT 28N80W NEAR MELBOURNE
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST FROM
28N-29N BETWEEN 77W-82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC N OF 22N W OF 68W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
SUPPORTED BY A MOIST AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO THE NE UNITED STATES COASTLINE NEAR 37N75W. IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC...A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N54W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 22N59W. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NE
ALONG 28N47W TO A SECOND 1012 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 32N41W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM S OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS. TO THE N..A DYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
1012 MB LOW CENTER AT 32N41W TO 29N50W CONTINUING AS A DYING
STATIONARY FRONT TO 32N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THIS
FRONT AXIS. A NARROW SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
ALONG 36N65W 26N52W SUPPORTS THE 1011 MB LOW...WHILE A SECOND
LONGER WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 22N42W SUPPORTS THE
1012 MB LOW AND THE SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTING THE TWO SURFACE
LOWS. THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO ENHANCING SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE ITCZ.

$$
WALTON

[/b]

[cycloneye]

Good night to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
900 PM AST TUE NOV 24 2009

.UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED BY THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR LATE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY FAST
MOVING AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. GFS/NAM/ECMWF
COMPUTER MODELS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR TOMORROW DUE
TO AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TOMORROW...INCREASING SLIGHTLY THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS
SCENARIO. REST OF FORECAST PACKAGE UNCHANGED.

[Gustywind]

Good morning to all

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250706
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 AM AST WED NOV 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TYPICAL NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS WELL AS NORTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...WITH ONLY AN FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
THESE OVERALL...FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO STALL WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT
ON THE LOCAL WEATHER. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING SEAS AND SWELLS LATE THANKSGIVING
DAY...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN PASSING SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 25/17Z AND 25/21Z.
PLUME OF ASH AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SEAS AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG
THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 86 74 / 10 10 20 20
STT 87 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.

&&

$$

06/04

[cycloneye]

Good morning everyone.

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 AM AST WED NOV 25 2009

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE WIND WAS VARIABLE AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST OFF OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S. THE
WIND WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TODAY...TO
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 19
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
200 PM AST WED NOV 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY AND RETREAT EASTWARD AS TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
FRONTAL TROUGH TO STALL NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...UPDATED DAYTIME FORECAST DUE TO ENHANCED SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND ACROSS CULEBRA AND SAINT THOMAS IN RESPONSE TO NARROW BANDS OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF LOW NEAR 38N44W.

FOR TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF THE
EAST NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI
AND NORTH AND EAST PUERTO RICO. THE NAM RUN THIS MORNING WAS ON
TARGET WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COVERAGE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR PATCHY CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE EAST
OF THE LEEWARDS TO CROSS THE AREA. THE GENERAL CHARACTER OF THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE SCATTERED OR LESS RANGE.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL CHANGE LATE ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVES AND ENHANCES MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE
FRONTAL TROUGH.

AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER... BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PASSING SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 25/18Z AND 26/01Z. PLUME
OF ASH AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT WAS REPORTED MOVING MOSTLY WEST
WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWEST MOTION AND EXTENDED UP TO 10 THSD FEET.
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY.

MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN INCREASING SEAS
AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN
EXPOSED COASTLINES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

[cycloneye]

To all the Caribbean friends,have a good thanksgiving day with your familys.