Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

To all the Caribbean friends,have a good thanksgiving day with your familys.

Tkanks Cycloneye we all appreciate. All is ok in Guadeloupe Nothing occurs in terms of violence along the day with the big strike. Whereas the participation was strong enough with 10000 personn in the streets. The demonstrators were pretty pacific, and that's the good news. No damages in the shops have been reported too .
Peace and love in Guadeloupe... at least in appearence and let's begin with that as the demonstrators said that at any time they could come back in the streets in case of non respect of the chart signed by the French Government. Let's wait and see...
Gustywind from Guadeloupe.

[cycloneye]

To all the Caribbean friends,have a good thanksgiving day with your familys.

Tkanks Cycloneye we all appreciate. All is ok in Guadeloupe Nothing occurs in terms of violence along the day with the big strike. Whereas the participation was strong enough with 10000 personn in the streets. The demonstrators were pretty pacific, and that's the good news. No damages in the shops have been reported too .
Peace and love in Guadeloupe... at least in appearence and let's begin with that as the demonstrators said that at any time they could come back in the streets in case of non respect of the chart signed by the French Government. Let's wait and see...
Gustywind from Guadeloupe.

Thats very good news that nothing bad occured.

[Gustywind]

To all the Caribbean friends,have a good thanksgiving day with your familys.

Tkanks Cycloneye we all appreciate. All is ok in Guadeloupe Nothing occurs in terms of violence along the day with the big strike. Whereas the participation was strong enough with 10000 personn in the streets. The demonstrators were pretty pacific, and that's the good news. No damages in the shops have been reported too .
Peace and love in Guadeloupe... at least in appearence and let's begin with that as the demonstrators said that at any time they could come back in the streets in case of non respect of the chart signed by the French Government. Let's wait and see...
Gustywind from Guadeloupe.

Thats very good news that nothing bad occured.

Absolutely Luis we're glad hope that this trend will continue before the end of the year .

[cycloneye]

Good night to all.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 PM AST WED NOV 25 2009

...CLIMATE SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED...

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...PRODUCING NEAR HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IN SOME ISOLATED
AREAS. COMPUTERS MODELS SUGGEST THIS WEATHER PATTERN...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY SATURDAY...A SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TREND IS FORECAST BY COMPUTER MODELS TO OCCUR WHICH WILL
LIMIT SIGNIFICANTLY THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. JSJ AND JBQ THE MOST LIKELY AIRPORTS TO EXPERIENCE THESE
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS OF AROUND 11 SECS ARE ALREADY BEING EXPERIENCED AT
BUOY 41043. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH TOWARD
PR/USVI WITH 18Z NAH MODEL INDICATING SWELLS INCREASING TO 5 FEET BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BREAKERS OF 8 FT OR MORE CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE ATLC COASTLINE. VERY MARGINAL HIGH SURF CONDITIONS COULD BE MET
TOMORROW. GIVEN THAT THIS WOULD BE A SECOND PERIOD EVENT AND THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF IT WILL NOT ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ATTM BUT
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.CLIMATE...TOTAL NOV RAINFALL SO FAR THIS MONTH THRU 02Z THU IS
12.06 INCHES. THIS IS THE THIRD WETTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD FOR LMM
INTL AIRPORT.

[Gustywind]

Good morning to all .

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260944
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST THU NOV 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...PATCHY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH NORTHERN PUERTO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...EXPECT CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE TO STEER
OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ONLY THE VERY ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA...WILL LIKELY STALL WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH ITS REMNANTS GETTING PUSHED ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RACES BY. IF THIS PANS
OUT...WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS RETURNING RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE...HELD OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INHERITED
FORECAST AS TYPICAL NOCTURNAL/DIURNAL PATTERN SEEMS REASONABLE. MAIN
CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY...WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM AST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN PASSING SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 25/17Z AND
25/21Z. PLUME OF ASH AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 HAS BEEN DETECTING 6 TO 7 FOOT SWELLS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THESE SWELLS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS THEY CROSS OUR
LOCAL WATERS...THEY ARE RUNNING MODERATELY HIGHER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG
THE NORTHERN EXPOSED SHOALS...REEFS AND COASTLINES OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE THIS IS ONLY A BORDERLINE HIGH
SURF EVENT...DUE TO THE HOLIDAY...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF MAINLAND
PR...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...EFFECTIVE AT 6
AM AST THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...WITH AN ADDITIONAL THIRTY NINE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH...NOVEMBER 2009 WILL MOVE INTO SECOND PLACE AS FAR AS THE
WETTEST NOVEMBERS GO. THE ALL TIME RECORD WET NOVEMBER WAS
1979...WHEN A TOTAL OF 15.96 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATED AT THE
LUIS MUNOZ INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN. SO FAR...12.06
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ACCUMULATED THIS MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 86 73 / 30 20 20 20
STT 86 76 85 75 / 40 20 20 20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AST SATURDAY FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ
AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

&&

$$

06/04

[cycloneye]

Good morning Gusty and the rest in this Thanksgiving day.

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST THU NOV 26 2009

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGED FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE WIND WAS MAINLY EAST AT 10 MPH
OR LESS.

THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AGAIN TODAY. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST OFF OF THE WEST COASTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY EAST
AT AROUND 15 MPH OR LESS.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AGAIN TODAY...TO
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 16
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY AND THEN
CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT
IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE
NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT
SMALLER ISLANDS AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS.

[Gustywind]

Good morning Gusty and the rest in this Thanksgiving day.

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST THU NOV 26 2009

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGED FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE WIND WAS MAINLY EAST AT 10 MPH
OR LESS.

THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AGAIN TODAY. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST OFF OF THE WEST COASTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY EAST
AT AROUND 15 MPH OR LESS.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AGAIN TODAY...TO
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 16
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY AND THEN
CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT
IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE
NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT
SMALLER ISLANDS AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS.

Good morning Luis hope all is ok en la isla del encanto: PR Weather is fine here for our musical festival. Saturday should bring a special guest, one of your friend from Republica Dominica : el sonero José Alberto " El Canario". Do you know him? I appreciate latin music especially salsa latin jazz, quel placer un regalo para el alma Azucar!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etZJPEVcpSU
I love this singer, my favorite i have most of its albums, i'm a fan, i'm glad to see him saturday it's a very nice opportunity for me and the others islanders, so come come in the flight of salsa .

[Gustywind]

Hi Msbee hope that concerning the big strike the last two days i give you some infos to understand the facts (see my previous posts). Hope that all is ok in the Northern Leewards
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST THU NOV 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING PREVAILS EXCEPT FOR THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH VERY EARLY ON MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY BUT DISSIPATES
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
BEEN EAST SOUTHEAST SINCE AT LEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME
RATHER LIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES DURING
THE NEXT 7 DAYS BUT NO MAJOR EVENTS ARE FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE AN INVERSION BETWEEN 750 AND 700
MB...INCOMPLETE CAPPING OCCURRED. THIS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF PUERTO RICO OR MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE DIRECTION
OF VIEQUES THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
SHOWERS WERE HEAVY AT TIMES...NO FLOODING WAS REPORTED. A
CONVERGENCE BAND SPIRALING INTO A LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF 30 NORTH
60 WEST APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GOOD CONVECTION
MUCH AS YESTERDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND GRADIENTS WEAKEN. BUT IN THE
LONG TERM GENERAL MOIST TRADE WIND FLOW WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN
DIRECTION WILL KEEP SHOWERS ON THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COASTS
NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS AND IN THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO A PASSING SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AS SEAS RANGE BETWEEN
6.3 AND 7.3 AT BUOY 41043 AND SHOULD PRODUCE 9 FOOT BREAKING WAVES
ON MANY COASTS WITH 10 TO 12 FOOT BREAKING WAVES IN CERTAIN
FAVORED AREAS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
MAY RISE AGAIN TO EQUAL OR EXCEED TODAY`S LEVELS ON THE LAST DAY OF
NOVEMBER.

[cycloneye]

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 PM AST THU NOV 26 2009

A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE THROUGH...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OR JUST ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE WIND WAS MAINLY EAST
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH.

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE WIND WILL BE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 16
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN LARGE
BREAKING WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN
EXPOSED COASTLINES OF ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT SMALLER
ISLANDS AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

[msbee]

Hello everyone and Happy Thanksgiving Day to everyone even if you don't celebrate it on your island. We don't really celebrate it on St. maartne ( it's a normal working day here) but because there are Americans living here and there are so many American tourists, there are many places you can go for a traditional thanksgiving dinner..

Thanks Gusty for the info on the strikes. Hope everything stays cool and calm down there.

[cycloneye]

See all tommorow,black friday,the official kickoff to Christmas. Good night to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
925 PM AST THU NOV 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FCST PERIOD. A CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF 20N ON
SAT THEN DISSIPATE. SFC HIGH PRES TO BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OP MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AMPIFLYING NEXT 24 HRS AS
DEEP TROF OVER THE ERN GREAT LKS DEEPENS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSIDENCE CAP THAT STRENGHTENS/BUILDS DOWN
TO 750 MB AND AIR MASS DRYING OUT FURTHER. ANTICIPATE CURR
CONVECTION OVR THE WATERS TO DECREASE IN CVRG SUBSTANTIALLY BY
MORNING. HAVE ALSO CUT IN POPS FOR TOMORROW WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCE
FOR THE NW. DEFINITELY A GOOD DAY TO DO SHOPPING TOMORROW. UPPER
RIDGE FLATTENS ON SAT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH BUT THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO DO MUCH FOR US IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX.
HOWEVER..DO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NW
WATERS AS CDFNT STALLS ALONG THE NCOAST OF HISPANIOLA AND TO THE
NORTH OF 20N.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUILDING SFC RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
INCREASE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN BRINGING BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS ATLC
WATERS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST OF PR ON NERLY WINDS.

MID LEVEL RIDGE FCST TO AMPLIFY AGAIN FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
KEEPING ANY FRONTS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...BRIEF
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR...AS A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT INCLEMENT WEATHER
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AFOREMENTIONED
MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL
WEATHER REGIME. HOWEVER...STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
LOCALLY...PARTICULARLY IN BANDS AND PATCHES...TO COMBINE WITH
LOCAL DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL PROCESSES EACH DAY...TO AT LEAST
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY...BUT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO STALL OVER HISPANIOLA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE
REMNANTS LINGERING NEARBY FOR MONDAY AND PROBABLY TUESDAY ALSO. AS
SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
EXPECT IT TO GRADUALLY BRIDGE ACROSS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
RESULTING IN INCREASING EAST NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND PATCHES
OF REMNANT MOISTURE AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PR AND
THE U.S.V.I. THROUGH 27/12Z...WITH A VCSH OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS
TIST AND TISX. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF MOISTURE NEAR TNCM AND
TKPK WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TO THESE SITES THROUGH
27/14Z...IN A PASSING SHRA. AFT 27/16Z...A SHRA OR TSRA MAY BRING
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS TO TJMZ...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. ASH FROM MONTSERRAT EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 14 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
7 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. NEW...MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN INVADING THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES EARLY SUNDAY...BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE
NORTH. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
TODAY.

[cycloneye]

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1047 AM AST FRI NOV 27 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THIS MORNING. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THEIR COASTAL WATERS. THE
WINDS HAVE BEEN SOUTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...EXPECT AN AREA OF PASSING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...TO BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AS SEAS WILL BE UP
TO 6 FEET IN NORTH NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THESE AREAS...PLEASE STILL TAKE
PROPER PRECAUTION. EVEN WITH THE IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS...THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE BREAKING WAVES AND
CHALLENGING SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED
COASTLINES OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...BRIEF
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR...AS A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO...CU LINES DEVELOPED OVER
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EL YUNQUE. THE YUNQUE CU LINE MOVED WNW AND
AFFECTED THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. NONE OF THESE SHOWERS
HAVE GENERATED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET.

A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW LOCATED OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WEST AND AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EASTERN COAST OF
PUERTO RICO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY...
BUT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OVER HISPANIOLA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE REMNANTS LINGERING NEARBY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PR AND
THE U.S. VI THIS AFTERNOON. A SHRA OR TSRA MAY BRING TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS AT A COUPLE OF SITES...BUT THAT WOULD BE SHORTLIVED.
VOLCANIC ASH FROM MONTSERRAT IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SAINT CROIX
AIRPORT.


&&

.MARINE...THE NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THE NEXT
SWELL EVENT WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS A NNW SWELL WILL BEGAN TO
REACH OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
632 PM AST FRI NOV 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CAMUY
HATILLO
ARECIBO

* UNTIL 930 PM AST

* AT 627 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE
HATILLO AND ARECIBO COUNTY LINE. RADAR HAS ESTIMATED OVER FIVE
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE CORCOVADA AND CARRIZALES SECTORS.
AT AREA. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN COULD TRIGGER FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
STREAMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

[cycloneye]

Have a good night everyone.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
946 PM AST FRI NOV 27 2009

.UPDATE...DESPITE STRONG RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE CAP AT MID LEVELS
STRONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WAS ABLE TO OVERCOME CAP LOCALLY IN
A FEW PLACES WITH A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER LARES AND
HATILLO EARLIER. THE THUNDERSTORM OVER HATILLO WAS NEARLY STATIONARY
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE PRODIGIOUS AMOUNT OF
RAIN WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF UP TO 11.5 INCHES THERE. UNFORTUNATELY
THE RAIN MISSED ALL THE GAGES IN THE AREA AND AN ACCURATE ESTIMATE
OF HOW MUCH PRECIP FELL IN THOSE AREAS IS NOT AVAILABLE. WOULD
EXPECT THAT A LARGE AREA RECEIVED BETWEEN 6 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN.
SEE LSR PRODUCT FOR FLOODING REPORTS.

ALL SHOWERS HAVE NOW DISSIPATED AND A QUIET NIGHT APPEARS IN
STORE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD AFFECT EASTERN PR OVERNIGHT AS
AN AREA OF SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE USVI AND ANEGADA PASSAGE
MOVES WEST.

WINDS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MAKING
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR.
ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING LIKE IT DID TODAY.

NO CHANGES TO GRIDS WERE NECESSARY AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 12 HOURS. VOLCANIC ASH FROM
MONTSERRAT IS LIKELY AFFECTING TISX. DAYTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A VERY LARGE SWATH OF DIFFUSE ASH PLUME EXTENDING OUT FROM
MONTSERRAT TO THE WNW 200 NM. ALL ROUTES FROM VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD EXPECT ASH FROM FL100 TO FL250.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES EXPECTED...THE
FIRST PASSING MAINLY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A MORE IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECASTING LOCALLY DURING THIS MONTH OF NOVEMBER
HAS CERTAINLY BEEN CHALLENGING AT TIMES...WITH MID LATITUDE
SYSTEMS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICS. EVEN WHEN "DRIER" DAYS ARE
EXPECTED...THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL POOLING OF 70 TO 75 DEGREE
DEW POINTS BY EXCELLENT SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...INTENSE
HEATING...OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND JET VENTILATION CAN HAVE AMAZING
RESULTS...AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A LOCALIZED
...SLOW-MOVING INTENSE CELL OVER HATILLO AND ARECIBO THAT PRODUCED
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

THE FIRST TWO AND A HALF TO THREE DAYS OF WEATHER...SKY...POP AND
QPF GRIDS AND FORECASTS WERE RE-WORKED TO SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE LOCATED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...
WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND GENERALLY WEST ACROSS THE FA TODAY. THIS
FEATURE AND MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND JET
VENTILATION TODAY...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH THE
BEST GUESS AT THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS...THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
CELLS AGAIN TODAY COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHEAST...WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...IT APPEARS THAT
FRONT WILL PROBABLY MERGE WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...AND WILL THEN BECOME ORIENTED MORE
WEST TO EAST ALONG 20 TO 20.5 DEGREES NORTH LATER SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A GOOD CHUNK OF MOISTURE WILL "BREAK" OFF
AND MOVE INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN A PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE
U.S.V.I...TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH 28/13Z. AFT 28/16Z...SHRA
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR WILL LEAD TO
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ FROM 28/17-28/22Z AS WIND
FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW MOVING.
ADDITIONALLY A VCSH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR TJPS...TJSJ AND
TJBQ. VA FROM MONTSERRAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TISX THROUGH
28/13Z...WITH WIND EXPECTED TO STEER VA SOUTH OF ALL THE LOCAL TAF
SITES AFTER 28/13Z...BUT STILL RATHER CLOSE TO TISX.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
7 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
LEFTOVER NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TODAY. MODERATE...LONG
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN INVADING THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES EARLY SUNDAY...BUILD
SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE NORTH.

[cycloneye]

If you have noticed,only "two" more days of hurricane season are left!

However,that doesnt mean this tent thread will be locked from December 1rst until June 1rst,as its the contrary. This thread is for our Caribbean and Centroamerican friends to post all year around about what is going on in the islands weatherwise and sometimes some off-topic themes like the Soufriere Volcano,Guadeloupe strike etc so keep the posts comming into the tent.

Note=I expanded our tent to include our friends in Centralamerica so they can come and post what is going on in that area so lets welcome our friends that live there.That is why you see CA at the title of thread

[Gustywind]

If you have noticed,only "two" more days of hurricane season are left!

However,that doesnt mean this tent thread will be locked from December 1rst until June 1rst,as its the contrary. This thread is for our Caribbean and Centroamerican friends to post all year around about what is going on in the islands weatherwise and sometimes some off-topic themes like the Soufriere Volcano,Guadeloupe strike etc so keep the posts comming into the tent.

Note=I expanded our tent to include our friends in Centralamerica so they can come and post what is going on in that area so lets welcome our friends that live there.That is why you see CA at the title of thread

Good job as usual Luis , I was wondering why the title had mentionned CA good catch Cycloneye, that's a very good idea !