
Edit to add I now have CG and much heavier storm again.
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jasons wrote:Yes, there is some rain along the Katy Freeway corridor moving NNE. If - IF - it can hold together - I will finally get my first rain in 8 days....
*on knees praying*
jasons wrote:I managed a whopping .03". Hardly enough to settle the dust...maybe better luck tomorrow. Who woulda thought the DFW area would be having so much rain this month....my trek through bizarro world continues.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
724 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009
.AVIATION...
STARTING OUT WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN 2000 FT LAYER AND A LAYER
OF HIGH CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM STORMS TO THE NORTH. LOWER DECK
SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY...BUT EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING
MUCH AS YESTERDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTRMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INHIBITION WEST...WITH BEST
COVERAGE LIKELY NORTH OF I 10 AND EAST OF I 45. BASED ON
THIS...THINK CLL...GLS...AND LBX LEAST LIKELY TO SEE A
TSTRM...WITH A BETTER CHANCE AT UTS...CXO...AND POSSIBLY
HOU...IAH. FOR THE MORE LIKELY SITES...HAVE GONE WITH VCTS MAINLY
AFTER 18Z. ELSEWHERE...JUST A MENTION OF CB. TOYED WITH GOING WITH
TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON FOR CXO AND UTS...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT AT THIS POINT THAT STORMS WILL HIT THE TERMINALS...MAY
BE MORE HIT OR MISS...BUT CAN SEE AMENDMENTS IN THAT DIRECTION AS
STORMS BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR. 46
Heavy rainfall ongoing this morning over NE TX….where models progged late last week to be over SE TX.
Models have not handled the current situation well over the past few days with ridge over SE TX not giving as much ground and axis of heavy rainfall remaining over N TX and LA. Feel today will be no different than yesterday with models trending too much toward climo and not handling the extreme to exceptional drought in progress. Pressure gradient is up this morning resulting in decent south winds already…which will hamper a good seabreeze formation. Also watching outflow from NE TX storms…but strong southerly inflow may keep this well NE of our area.
Expect scattered storms to develop across the area once trigger temperatures are reached and exceeded. Hard pressed to find anything good to fire on and soundings show increasing capping at CRP so will favor the areas along and NE of a line from CLL to Katy to Galveston for best chances. Will likely see nothing down around Matagorda Bay. With this said…will at least need to keep one eye out to the NE in case a rough MCS develops and attempts a run at the area in NNE flow aloft.
Pattern beyond today shows lowering rain chances confined mainly to the afternoon seabreeze as winds weaken allowing a better Gulf circulation to develop. Ridging builds slightly each day so rain chances drop and afternoon high push back toward the upper 90’s and low 100’s into the weekend.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD OF ZFPHGX MAINLY FOR REST OF MORNING PORTION
LOWERING POPS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWFA REFLECTING SHORT TERM
PROJECTED TREND. WATER VAPOR INDICATE JET STREAK PUSHING ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OK WHILE VSBY LOOP INTERESTINGLY SHOWING
GRAVITATIONAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TX.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ONGOING OVER EXTREME NE TEXAS EXTENDING INTO
NORTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN AR. COOLER AIR OUTFLOW MAY PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON FIRING UP CONVECTION AND THIS
IS REFLECTED W/CURRENT FCST. 37
jasons wrote:On satellite, it looks like a line of TCU developing from near Huntsville to Brenham.
I'm guesstimating location on a satellite pic with no labels, so I could be off by a few miles... It is moving slowly SE. Let's see if it can develop any storms...
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