June 7 - 13 Severe Weather

[Bunkertor]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1124 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

OKC035-041-097-121645-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0029.000000T0000Z-090612T1645Z/
DELAWARE OK-CRAIG OK-MAYES OK-
1124 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MAYES...SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG AND WESTERN DELAWARE
COUNTIES...

AT 1122 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LANGLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHLOETA...
DISNEY...KETCHUM...BERNICE...CLEORA...ZENA AND JAY.

[brunota2003]

I'm guessing the numbers will be 90/70 for the new watch.

At least. My guess is >95/80, with 90 mph winds mentioned.

Perhaps, since there has been an observation of 85 mph winds.

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1129 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

ARC007-143-OKC001-021-041-097-101-145-121700-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0293.000000T0000Z-090612T1700Z/
WASHINGTON AR-BENTON AR-MUSKOGEE OK-WAGONER OK-DELAWARE OK-ADAIR OK-
CHEROKEE OK-MAYES OK-
1129 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR
EASTERN MAYES...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER...
NORTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE...WESTERN BENTON AND WESTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES...

AT 1128 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND VIOLENT STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 90 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ZENA TO COLCORD TO PROCTOR
TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF HULBERT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WEST SILOAM
SPRINGS...CHRISTIE...WATTS...BALLARD...SILOAM SPRINGS...WESTVILLE...
LAKE FRANCIS...CHEROKEE CITY...CINCINNATI...MAYSVILLE...BARON...
SUMMERS...GENTRY...FAIRMOUNT...GALLITIN...WEDINGTON...MARIETTA...
SPRINGTOWN...DECATUR...RHEA...SULPHUR SPRINGS...BUNCH...LINCOLN...
SAVOY...GRAVETTE...STILWELL...HIGHFILL...VINEY GROVE...PRAIRIE
GROVE...CANEHILL...MORROW AND CLYDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE COVER
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PERSONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM SHOULD PREPARE FOR
VIOLENT STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY. IF NO UNDERGROUND
SHELTER IS AVAILABLE TAKE COVER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR
ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 9436 3600 9428 3580 9441 3565 9467
3586 9540 3598 9521 3618 9508 3652 9519
TIME...MOT...LOC 1629Z 280DEG 38KT 3647 9481 3620 9465
3600 9473 3578 9508

$$

[Bunkertor]

p.s. Bart is yet on the fast lane.

[CrazyC83]

It's a big watch, stretching from Tulsa all the way to Memphis, including almost all of Arkansas. Still working on it - the PDS wording has to be typed in separately I believe so it won't show it until it is published.

BREAKING NEWS - Aviation update mentions 105 mph winds!!!

[CrazyC83]

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1135 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 105 MPH...LARGE
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF MUSKOGEE OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
MEMPHIS TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 387...

DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE BOW ECHO/DERECHO HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NERN
OK AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY E/ESEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THRU THE
AFTERNOON. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND 40-50KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...A SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY VERY DAMAGING
WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. IN ADDITION SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE STRONG HEATING OF THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE DERECHO WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS WIND
DAMAGE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 90
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28045.


...HALES

[CrazyC83]

With those numbers, a High Risk may be warranted (although maybe they need 100 kt/115 mph winds - something I have never seen in a watch - to go that far?)

Probabilities: >95/>95 (as high as it can go)

[brunota2003]

it is >95/>95 for wind! we were both wrong

[brunota2003]

WWUS40 KWNS 121639
WWP8

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

WS 0388 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 50%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 90
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 28045
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU8.

$$

[Dave]

Crazy here's the map for it..

[CrazyC83]

it is >95/>95 for wind! we were both wrong

This is an EXTREMELY dangerous situation. Those kind of numbers are very rare - this could be a historic derecho event that could last all evening (and it may not be the last PDS watch today). At 2000Z, I'd go high risk and extend the moderate all the way to the Carolinas or Georgia.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1141 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1140 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GENTRY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...GENTRY...
DECATUR...GRAVETTE...HIWASSE...BELLA VISTA...BENTONVILLE AND
ROGERS.

[brunota2003]

Well, I will be back later...back to work (lunch break).

[Dave]

Just came on a little while ago and already see 5 meso's working in E OK & NE Ark.

[Dave]

I'll be posting some of the thunderstorm warnings esp with winds over 80 mph. This one is 30 mins old but still has 30 mins left in it..getting started on warnings and catching up...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1136 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DELAWARE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1135 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND VIOLENT STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 90 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CLEORA TO MAYSVILLE TO
WESTVILLE TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COOKSON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...COOKSON...
CINCINNATI...MAYSVILLE...DECATUR...GENTRY...MARIETTA...
SPRINGTOWN...GROVE...STILWELL...HIGHFILL...LINCOLN...BUNCH...
GRAVETTE...PRAIRIE GROVE...CAVE SPRINGS...TONTITOWN...FARMINGTON...
BENTONVILLE...HIWASSE...GREENLAND...FAYETTEVILLE...ROGERS...
LOWELL...SPRINGDALE...STRICKLER...BELLA VISTA...WEST FORK...
ELKINS...BLACKBURN...WAR EAGLE...BRENTWOOD...PEA RIDGE...LEE
CREEK...WESLEY...NATURAL DAM...HINDSVILLE...WINSLOW...CHESTER...
MOUNTAINBURG...GARFIELD AND GATEWAY.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1152 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
SOUTHERN MUSKOGEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EASTERN OKMULGEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
HASKELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHERN LE FLORE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
MCINTOSH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1152 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM COOKSON TO WARNER TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
COUNCIL HILL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...VIAN...
MARBLE CITY...PORUM...STIDHAM...BRUSHY...TAMAHA...SALLISAW...
BRIARTOWN...EUFAULA...STIGLER...WHITEFIELD...SHORT...KEOTA...
GANS...MULDROW...ENTERPRISE...ROLAND...MCCURTAIN...BOKOSHE...
SPIRO...QUINTON...KINTA AND LEQUIRE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE COVER
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS STORM IS LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK
SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

[Dave]

I'll pick up the 70+ mph winds also...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1205 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SEBASTIAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1204 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH.THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR POCOLA...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...POCOLA...
BONANZA...HACKETT...MIDLAND...JENNY LIND...EXCELSIOR...BARLING...
GREENWOOD...HUNTINGTON...MANSFIELD...BURNVILLE...LAVACA AND
BLOOMER.

[Dave]

I don't have a site to get the number of lightning strikes per hour or minute but on the overlay here on grlevel3 I'm seeing places near the state lines of ok & ar getting 19 strikes per 15 mins. The lightning is so intense I've got the overlay shut off so I can see the cells.

[Dave]

DATE: JUN 12 131500 EDT
TYPE: HAIL
CITY: 2 M E SPIRO
MAGNITUDE: E 2.75 INCH
COUNTY: LE FLORE
STATE: OK
SOURCE: EMERGENCY MNGR

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 1222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL AND VIOLENT STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 90 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GARFIELD TO FARMINGTON TO LEE
CREEK...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS TO 85 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...GARFIELD...
GATEWAY...SPRINGDALE...GREENLAND...BLACKBURN...FAYETTEVILLE...WEST
FORK...CHESTER...MOUNTAINBURG...WINSLOW...WAR EAGLE...BRENTWOOD...
BEAVER...ELKINS...FERN...WESLEY...EUREKA SPRINGS...HINDSVILLE...
CLIFTY...GRANDVIEW...JAPTON...FORUM...HUNTSVILLE...CASS...
URBANETTE...BERRYVILLE...SAINT PAUL...AURORA...OAK GROVE...
WITTER...MARBLE...GREEN FOREST...RULE...PETTIGREW...RUDD...
BOSTON...KINGSTON...OSAGE...CARROLLTON AND ALPENA.


PERSONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM SHOULD PREPARE FOR
VIOLENT STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.