Texas Spring 2013

[South Texas Storms]

I got 1 inch of beneficial rainfall at my house before the front came through last night! The high-res models definitely beat the globals with this system. GFS and Euro showed nothing for me and they were wrong!

[horselattitudesfarm]

A very sobering forecast from John Neilson Gammon from the climate abyss blog
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Not looking good for Texas' water supply. Record low levels set in 2011 will likely be surpassed. Lets pray for another TS like Allison to park itself over Texas, only over the Hill Country instead of Houston.

[Rgv20]

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[Ntxw]

Latest SOI crash suggest a legit period of wet weather may be coming to Texas. Fingers crossed as models trend wetter and moisture return from the gulf looks good this week.

[Tireman4]

Any fronts on the horizon? Woo Hoo to the last one. My running is so thankful for the respite. (You Summer lovers, you will get your 95 degree days and you know it...LOL)

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Any fronts on the horizon? Woo Hoo to the last one. My running is so thankful for the respite. (You Summer lovers, you will get your 95 degree days and you know it...LOL)

[Ntxw]

Any fronts on the horizon? Woo Hoo to the last one. My running is so thankful for the respite. (You Summer lovers, you will get your 95 degree days and you know it...LOL)

Models do show late cold fronts (for this time of year). At this time they do not appear to be the magnitude of the recent fronts but will still keep temps slightly below average and continue below averages for the month thus far. The Epac ridge is moving inland to the west as a +PNA signal (SOI and MJO related) which bodes well for stormy weather in Texas while the coldest air likely heads for the eastern US. As the ridge continues it's migration east coupled with the MJO progressing through the Pacific we may see a milder period period come third week of May.

Forgot to post this in my previous post, rainfall estimates from the HPC next 7 days.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

My buddy told me they are taking the water from Lake Travis and shipping it to South Texas for fracking. Said his dock is nearly all mud now, had to move the boat.

[weatherdude1108]

I wish we would get rainfall like this more often than once a month or so, assuming this forecast even comes to fruition. The lakes (aka Lakes Travis and Buchanan) do not benefit at all from it. But rainwater collection systems might! Hmmmmm.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 082008
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
308 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AS THE DRY-LINE MIXES EASTWARD.
OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS WILL ENVELOP ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S TO SE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL
COUNTRY AND NE COUNTIES. THE HI-RES ARW AND NMM ALONG WITH THE TTU
3KM WRF GENERATE THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS THOSE AREAS. SPC HAS ALSO
PLACED THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA FOR THURSDAY INDICATING THAT ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES STILL HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CHURNING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WILL BRIEFLY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWFA FRIDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES CUT-OFF OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES
PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ONCE
AGAIN SPC HAS PLACED ALMOST ALL OF OUR REGION IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS SCENARIO AND WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE IN THE GRIDS/FCST
ATTM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING AS AN WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS REMAINS
PLANTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL AXIS WILL
FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY ENDING OUR RAIN
CHANCES. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHEST STORM TOTALS. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE
FROM ONE HALF INCH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO AROUND 2 INCHES NORTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BURNET TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO LA GRANGE. THIS
IS WELCOMED RAINFALL...BUT NOT A DROUGHT BUSTER BY ANY MEANS.

[Rgv20]

A wide spread heavy rain event will be welcome!


Brownsville Afternoon Discussion:

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE AREA SHIFTING OUR
WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND A SFC LOW/COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP AS UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES. WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
THE INCREASE DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE BOUNDARY IN VICINITY
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PEAKING AT 50
PERCENT WITH QPF VALUES UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH.

THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING...NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL AGREE ON
BRINGING A SFC BOUNDARY/FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY
AROUND NOON OR SO IN THE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE IS BASICALLY NO
COLD ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THIS FRONT...UPPER SUPPORT...OR STRONG
RIDGING/COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE PLAINS TO SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE OUR
AIRMASS...AND THE REAL REASON IT IS PUSHING IS A SHIFT OF OUR WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST AS SFC TROUGHING FORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH A
LACK OF REAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND
1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF SFC BASED AND MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. SUSPECT THAT ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND COOLER ONSHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR
INSTABILITY A BIT LIMITED...BUT UPPER FORCING SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD
SO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE ADDED CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...INCLUDING POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HAIL/WIND. THE MAIN ITEM THAT CATCHES MY ATTENTION AT THIS
TIME THOUGH IS THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE ABOUT 850MB ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS WHICH
PRODUCES A HODOGRAPH SUGGESTIVE OF VERY SLOW STORM MOTION. WITH
PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES...AROUND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF THE BOUNDARY IS A LITTLE
STRONGER AND INSTABILITY IS WEAKER CONVECTION AND THE ATTENDANT
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED.

[weatherdude1108]

That would be great Rgv20! I've seen in the news how irrigation/drinking water is limited down there right now because of drought since 2010 (sounds like us too in Central Texas), and Mexico isn't releasing their fair share to the U.S. due to an international treaty from the 1940s I think(?). Didn't know if you had more insight being down there?

[weatherdude1108]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL SLIDE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES HAS DRAGGED A COLD FRONT
INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE WEAKENING HEIGHTS ALOFT...S/W TROUGH...AND
ADVANCEMENT OF THE DRYLINE INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WILL
COMBINE WITH THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA AND
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM ROCKSPRINGS TO SAN MARCOS TO LEXINGTON. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION AND THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF
FROM THE BROADER FLOW ALOFT AND STALLS OVER NRN MEXICO. BETTER
AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF SAN ANTONIO...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOW
90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AND MORE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION
OF BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ONLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
LINGERING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AND GOOD MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY WILL RANGE
FROM 1.5 TO ALMOST 2 INCHES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) AND GUIDANCE
FROM WPC INDICATE THREE-DAY STORM TOTALS (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
OF CLOSE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
MOST AREAS WILL WELCOME THE BENEFICIAL RAIN...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN
MAKERS AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR FLOODING
ACROSS URBANIZED AREAS DUE TO RUNOFF.

[Ntxw]

Not very heavy but a steady slow soaker over the metroplex last few hours. Nice to see after the recent dry stretch this month, hoping for more to soak into the soil next few days.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Not very heavy but a steady slow soaker over the metroplex last few hours. Nice to see after the recent dry stretch this month, hoping for more to soak into the soil next few days.

These 'dry stretches' are becoming far too common in our springtime months these days

[horselattitudesfarm]

Wouldcha look at that....a donut hole right over Austin! What have you guys done wrong! [/URL]

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Where are we for the year now? I imagine above normal with this event and the one from 3 weeks ago

[Ntxw]

Some totals for the big cities as of early this morning year to date.

IAH: 8.34 inches; Departure from normal: -6.43 inches

DFW: 10.26 inches; Departure from normal: -2.53 inches

Austin Bergstrom: 10.31 inches; Departure from normal: +0.04 inches

San Antonio: 7.35 inches; Departure from normal: -1.64 inches


** For Houston metro the recent flooding rain events effected mostly the western and southern areas, there is a sizable gap between rainfall totals in a relatively short distance.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Thats strange that ATX gets about 40% more rain than SA by this time of the year

[weatherdude1108]

Beautiful rain at the Weatherdude Center!! 0.60-inch in the last 45 minutes. No hail THANKFULLY. Still raining!! "Just what the doctor ordered."

[South Texas Storms]

SA got unlucky with this event too. Only .25 inch so far and I was hoping for at least .50 inch. Oh well. Hopefully it's my turn the next time.