Texas Spring 2023

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1634211735342071810

[rwfromkansas]

Well, I think we can stick a fork in winter. At least I got an ice week, but I am bummed I didn't get to use the new snow shovel.

The Lezak cycle didn't seem to verify well early in early March without a big cooldown as expected. But, it has been spot-on much of the rest of the winter.

[Ntxw]

Well, I think we can stick a fork in winter. At least I got an ice week, but I am bummed I didn't get to use the new snow shovel.

The Lezak cycle didn't seem to verify well early in early March without a big cooldown as expected. But, it has been spot-on much of the rest of the winter.

Standing wave has changed due to broader ENSO changes. MJO cycle pattern has shifted and is amplifying in the 7/8 phases. Lezak cycle is one of those things it works until it doesn't . As long as the broad tropical forcing remains the same, otherwise it's not a good tool.

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1634211735342071810?s=46&t=-5lM_vdlE9nb5DLG3wNfmg

Does this mean there is a chance for a Super El Nino?

[Iceresistance]

Well, I think we can stick a fork in winter. At least I got an ice week, but I am bummed I didn't get to use the new snow shovel.

The Lezak cycle didn't seem to verify well early in early March without a big cooldown as expected. But, it has been spot-on much of the rest of the winter.

Standing wave has changed due to broader ENSO changes. MJO cycle pattern has shifted and is amplifying in the 7/8 phases. Lezak cycle is one of those things it works until it doesn't . As long as the broad tropical forcing remains the same, otherwise it's not a good tool.

So in general terms, the Lezak cycle works very well when the upper patterns are generally the same, but otherwise it's useless in changing patterns?

[Ntxw]

Well, I think we can stick a fork in winter. At least I got an ice week, but I am bummed I didn't get to use the new snow shovel.

The Lezak cycle didn't seem to verify well early in early March without a big cooldown as expected. But, it has been spot-on much of the rest of the winter.

Standing wave has changed due to broader ENSO changes. MJO cycle pattern has shifted and is amplifying in the 7/8 phases. Lezak cycle is one of those things it works until it doesn't . As long as the broad tropical forcing remains the same, otherwise it's not a good tool.

So in general terms, the Lezak cycle works very well when the upper patterns are generally the same, but otherwise it's useless in changing patterns?

It's not useless, but it's one of those things where it's good at telling you what may happen as long as the broad forcing is in place to remain the same. Example stagnant La Nina over the MC standing wave for the past two-three years. I would say it is an indirect forecast of the MJO and wavebreaking tendencies. What the Lezak cycle doesn't do is tell you when it's about to change.

[Iceresistance]

Standing wave has changed due to broader ENSO changes. MJO cycle pattern has shifted and is amplifying in the 7/8 phases. Lezak cycle is one of those things it works until it doesn't . As long as the broad tropical forcing remains the same, otherwise it's not a good tool.

So in general terms, the Lezak cycle works very well when the upper patterns are generally the same, but otherwise it's useless in changing patterns?

It's not useless, but it's one of those things where it's good at telling you what may happen as long as the broad forcing is in place to remain the same. Example stagnant La Nina over the MC standing wave for the past two-three years. I would say it is an indirect forecast of the MJO and wavebreaking tendencies. What the Lezak cycle doesn't do is tell you when it's about to change.

Yeah changing patterns is always problematic to the forecasts.

[Iceresistance]

Tomorrow is the first day of a Conditional Severe Weather setup of the year.

[Iceresistance]

I popped 80°F today

Mangum managed to reach 90°F

[Brent]

Tomorrow is the first day of a Conditional Severe Weather setup of the year.

Didn't even rain here

[Iceresistance]

Tomorrow is the first day of a Conditional Severe Weather setup of the year.

Didn't even rain here

Not here at my house either, it was too far south and east!

[Iceresistance]

SOI index is starting to tank, daily SOI is now -11.9

[Iceresistance]

Oof


https://s2.gifyu.com/images/day4prob-2.gif

[Iceresistance]

SOI is really taking a nosedive

[CaptinCrunch]

88 Saturday, didn't make it out of the upper 50's Sunday and a chilly wind. Now we are looking at possible freeze for parts of NTX both Friday and Saturday moring, with high's this week mostly staying in the low to upper 50's.
Only Thursday has a forecast high in the mid 70's

[Edwards Limestone]

What a weird end to winter and start of spring so far.

[Ntxw]

This chilly, eastern trough type pattern (-NAO) will probably slow down early severe weather season.

[cheezyWXguy]

This chilly, eastern trough type pattern (-NAO) will probably slow down early severe weather season.

Won’t that depend on whether these upcoming fronts can clear the gulf coast? I imagine if they can’t it would allow for faster moderation between systems since the gulf would stay warmer

[Brent]

I almost feel like March might end up colder than February at this rate up here I'm probably wrong but the cold air in February never lasted long after the first few days. It is the first day of Spring Break and the wind chill is 39 at 2pm... And I've heard it may be even colder at the end of the week

[Ntxw]

This chilly, eastern trough type pattern (-NAO) will probably slow down early severe weather season.

Won’t that depend on whether these upcoming fronts can clear the gulf coast? I imagine if they can’t it would allow for faster moderation between systems since the gulf would stay warmer

With warm gulf, if the pattern is right, can increase severity. But verbatim the NW flow/eastern trough couplet reduces the odds of frequency. It's not the right pattern through the end of March.

2012-2014 period was this quasi trying El Nino that overall had less tor/severe count. But there were still outbreaks within the period.