Texas Fall 2024

[Throckmorton]

As things stand now, October is on track for the warmest on record for DFW...

Fifth warmest on record through Oct. 18. Very unlikely to catch #1 1938.

DFW's October temperatures have increased only 1° F since 1899.

[Gotwood]

What an odd weather pattern we are in. Can’t believe we haven’t received any rain this month. What analog years does this compare to so far? I was looking in DFW looks like last year Oct had zero (trace amounts) of rain was 1975. Is that accurate?

[snownado]

As things stand now, October is on track for the warmest on record for DFW...

Fifth warmest on record through Oct. 18. Very unlikely to catch #1 1938.

I stand by what I said.

The warmest October on record (2016) had an average 74.1*F. We're currently at 75.8*F with what will likely be positive departures every day for the rest of this month.

[snownado]

What an odd weather pattern we are in. Can’t believe we haven’t received any rain this month. What analog years does this compare to so far? I was looking in DFW looks like last year Oct had zero (trace amounts) of rain was 1975. Is that accurate?

For DFW, there's never been an October on record with no precip what so ever. 1975 and 1924 both tied for #1 with a T.

[Brent]

Is this pattern ever going to end? The GFS don't think so

TWC still has somewhat more normal weather towards Halloween but no cold air

[Ntxw]

Models have toned down any cool shot. Looks like 80s all the way to early November. We are entering a period now where normals are falling at a decent clip. Low to mid 70s becoming average highs. 80s is running 10+ above normal.

[snownado]

Is this pattern ever going to end? The GFS don't think so

From what I'm hearing, the GFS is indicating record-breaking 850mb temps for the first week of November.

[Stratton23]

Larry Cosgrove says hold youre horses on a warm first week of november, he says the first week of november and beyond could be cold for the central to eastern US, due to possible typoon forming and recurving east of japan, if that happens then it could help to promote a -EPO /-AO blocking pattern over NA, the Euro AIFS has been showing this, things will change alibeit slowly, i will say models typically do not handle typoon recurving and shaking up the pattern over NA very well, so maybe the Euro AIFS just might be on to something here

[Brent]

Larry Cosgrove says hold youre horses on a warm first week of november, he says the first week of november and beyond could be cold for the central to eastern US, due to possible typoon forming and recurving east of japan, if that happens then it could help to promote a -EPO /-AO blocking pattern over NA, the Euro AIFS has been showing this, things will change alibeit slowly, i will say models typically do not handle typoon recurving and shaking up the pattern over NA very well, so maybe the Euro AIFS just might be on to something here

Yeah well first it was gonna be the end of October then Halloween

Is it ever going to get closer? Our averages are dropping fast like said above

[snownado]

Larry Cosgrove says hold youre horses on a warm first week of november, he says the first week of november and beyond could be cold for the central to eastern US, due to possible typoon forming and recurving east of japan, if that happens then it could help to promote a -EPO /-AO blocking pattern over NA, the Euro AIFS has been showing this, things will change alibeit slowly, i will say models typically do not handle typoon recurving and shaking up the pattern over NA very well, so maybe the Euro AIFS just might be on to something here

A well-timed typhoon recurve in the Pacific and an unseasonably early Hurricane in the Gulf is what saved this past Summer (while still a top 20 hottest) from being the 3rd blowtorch in a row for DFW.

[Stratton23]

Brent I get the frustration, but things are going to change eventually, one pattern cant stay locked in forever, already seein changes in the models as we speak, it will be slow to occur but ill be watching the pacific to see if we can geta typoon to form and recurve east of japan

[gpsnowman]

Just heard from my favorite weatherman Jim Nantz from CBS Sports that Green Bay could reach 80 degrees. This crappy weather pattern isn't confined to just Texas but damn near nationwide. Having to punt one of my favorite months into early November is just sad. We better make up for this in the winter!!!

[Stratton23]

Yeah this miserable warmth encompasses a majority of the deep south not just texas, thats why im hoping for a typoon recurve in the pacific, we really need this pattern to get broken up and try to get rain back into the picture

[TropicalTundra]

0z GFS. 93 degrees 5 days into November would break the all-time November high by 2 degrees.

Miserable

[Throckmorton]

The consensus of international climate models is that ENSO neutral conditions will persist through at least March of next year.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean

[Yukon Cornelius]

Tired of this never ending crap.

[Brent]

I remember when the 90s were gonna be over in September. 2024 has been the year of weather lies

[CaptinCrunch]

I remember when the 90s were gonna be over in September. 2024 has been the year of weather lies

Live by the models die with the models!

Our current weather pattern was never going to let the 90s die, regardless of what long range model said. All a model truly is, is a best guess assessment based solely on the data that's dumped into it, and garbage in is garbage out.

Anyone see the Kansas City @ 49ers game? it was 90+ degrees in the sun on the KC sideline in San Francisco. The only place in the US where it does feel like Fall is the NE. It has been mid 30s for lows and upper 50s to low 60s for highs in Oswego NY. (I have family there) Until there is change with the southern ridge, a buckle in the Polar Jet, or little green men, we are stuck in 2nd Summer.

[Ntxw]

I remember when the 90s were gonna be over in September. 2024 has been the year of weather lies

2023 and 2024 have been experiencing a significant temperature spike globally and the Arctic has been excessively warm. It's just not easy to be relatively "cold" when your cold source is too warm. It's been hard enough to be below normal anytime of the year for more than a decade in a sustained fashion, even harder when the base state increased is even more raised now. It's been the transition months really been the effected players that gets to us. May gets hotter sooner and October stays hotter later.

A staunch mid continental ridge has been dominating the core of the US and Canada for months on end now also does not help. You'll have breaks with it but heights overall remain higher than normal. Basically it's been warm at the surface AND well above our heads.

All that said it will eventually get cold. Lasting? We'll have to wait and see if cold can actually build in Canada. We're not talking about just "freezing" temps up there, needs to be a vast anomalous pool of cold.

[CaptinCrunch]

I remember when the 90s were gonna be over in September. 2024 has been the year of weather lies

2023 and 2024 have been experiencing a significant temperature spike globally and the Arctic has been excessively warm. It's just not easy to be relatively "cold" when your cold source is too warm. It's been hard enough to be below normal anytime of the year for more than a decade in a sustained fashion, even harder when the base state increased is even more raised now. It's been the transition months really been the effected players that gets to us. May gets hotter sooner and October stays hotter later.

A staunch mid continental ridge has been dominating the core of the US and Canada for months on end now also does not help. You'll have breaks with it but heights overall remain higher than normal. Basically it's been warm at the surface AND well above our heads.

All that said it will eventually get cold. Lasting? We'll have to wait and see if cold can actually build in Canada. We're not talking about just "freezing" temps up there, needs to be a vast anomalous pool of cold.

The mid continental ridge has been off the chart strong, and you are absolutely correct with the surface and atmospheric heat. When it's hot top to bottom, that's all you get, and with that comes the drought, which we are in.
The forecast for the next 2 weeks does no favors for October, we could see a unprecedented October for hottest and driest on record.