SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Mid 80's and sunny this week

[Stratosphere747]

I'd be more concerned with the pattern setting up for training storms, and not so much severe. Looks like Ntx and Ctx are going to get hit fairly hard, with our area receiving some serious rainfall.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, rainfall looks like a serious problem as well. I sure wasn't expecting to see that flood watch go up! None the less, the severe issue is also something to watch closely since some of SE Texas is included in a moderate to high risk zone.

[Stratosphere747]

PDS watch for our neighbors to the west.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
DEL RIO TEXAS TO 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF WACO TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

[Bunkertor]

[quote="Stratosphere747"]PDS watch for our neighbors to the west.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

quote]

How does that feel like ?

[Stratosphere747]

Pff... Cat 1 cane. Been through a few of those without getting my hair wet...

It's the tornado's that scare me.

[JenBayles]

How often do we see a "PDS" warning? Not very, if memory serves correct...

[JenBayles]

Forgot to add... How often do we see a Flash Flood Watch when we haven't already had soaking rains ahead of the final flooding rain event? Our soils aren't exactly saturated right now, so the Powers That Be must be looking for some serious p*ss downs tonight. Not good.

[Stratosphere747]

Forgot to add... How often do we see a Flash Flood Watch when we haven't already had soaking rains ahead of the final flooding rain event? Our soils aren't exactly saturated right now, so the Powers That Be must be looking for some serious p*ss downs tonight. Not good.

Our classic training set up Jen.

Storm after storm with the line barely budging. Why I'm not so worried about the severe threat. Folks might go to sleep and wake up with a good 4/5 inches have fell overnight.

[Stratosphere747]

How often do we see a "PDS" warning? Not very, if memory serves correct...

Not often at all.

[Extremeweatherguy]

it has gotten quite windy outside in the last few minutes. The trees are swaying around pretty good at times. (probably gusting to 25-30mph).

Update - - here are the 5pm wind reports from area airports:

IAH = SE 23 G 29 MPH
Hooks = SE 15 G 30 MPH
Hobby = S 14 G 24 MPH
Galveston = SE 20 MPH
Conroe = SE 21 G 28 MPH

[jasons2k]

There are some very intense storms up in the DFW area with several warnings & flooding rains:

[Stratosphere747]

Jason...

Can you get an image of the current complex near Eagle Pass?

[jasons2k]

Jason...

Can you get an image of the current complex near Eagle Pass?

No prob!

[JonathanBelles]

I love how ABC news just reported that there have been warnings from texas to nebraska, yet when they showed the map it was a WATCH map and even says warning map on it. ABC news doesnt know the differnce yet.

[jasons2k]

The one out by Eagle Pass sure is a baddie:

[Stratosphere747]

The one out by Eagle Pass sure is a baddie:

No doubt. Surprised that there are no warnings up that way, but still a bit off from the border.

They have a tornado warning near San Angelo. This is looking to be a fairly large outbreak....

[Ptarmigan]

I am getting quite concerned that a monster squall line may try to form out of this before arriving here.

The radar maybe quiet for now, but I expect severe storms especially tonight. I have never seen high risk issued by SPC and they really mean it. Has that ever happened before?

[jeff]

No one should be surprised with the flash flood watch. PWS of 1.5-1.8 inches with 850mb dewpoints of 12-14C along with strong 850mb convergence points to a big heavy rainfall threat. Threat for slowing MCS/boundary with training and high hourly rates of 1.5-2.5 inches supports a watch. Even with fairly dry grounds rainfall of this magnitude can cause problems.

Looks like we could see some river issues due to the widespread nature of the event.

[Ptarmigan]

I'd be more concerned with the pattern setting up for training storms, and not so much severe. Looks like Ntx and Ctx are going to get hit fairly hard, with our area receiving some serious rainfall.

I worry about flooding too. They are talking about heavy rain tonight. Up to 4 inches. Whenever they predict rain amount, I predict it with times 2. It usually comes out right.

[jeff]

Per latest guidance and surface obs along with satellite data....severe outbreak looks good for tonight from SW TX through E TX. Strong short wave rounding base of the upper trough should eject into the Big Bend region in the next few hours with all guidance pointing to rapid and explosive MCS formation along 850mb frontal boundary. Latest surface obs show backed low level winds over SC TX in the region of I-35 suggesting an enhanced supercell/tornadic threat along the southern portions of PDS watchbox this evening as forcing overspreads the region. Nasty right moving supercell SE of Eagle Pass should gradually weaken as it encoutners strong capping over S TX. Feel main severe threat will be north of an Eagle Pass to Port O Conner line where mid level temps. are cooler. Initial supercell structures should grow into large MCS over time as the acitivty moves E of I-35

Tornadic threat this evening will tranisition into a damaging wind threat with LEWPS and bows pushes toward E TX and the upper TX coast. Slowing MCS will result in cell training and given extremely high moisture levels flash flooding is a good possibility.