SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Extremeweatherguy]

11pm (11/15/07) area temperatures...

Huntsville - 42˚
College Station - 49˚
Conroe - 39˚
Brenham - 39˚
IAH - 49˚
Hooks - 42˚
Hobby - 52˚
Sugar Land - 44˚
Galveston - 58˚
Beaumont - 47˚

My thermometer - 43˚

**I will be updating this each hour I am able**

[Yankeegirl]

I am sitting at 55.2.... chilllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllly!

[JenBayles]

Yankee - I'm laughing about your comment about the annual First Lighting of the Furnace. GAK! I hate that smell! We usually try to do that on a nice cool day before we really need the heat, so the stank can air out first.

Looks like our 50% chance of rain on Saturday is going up in smoke - or should I say going "down"? Who IS getting rain these days?

[Yankeegirl]

As for rain, im going to go with London...?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Brrr! At 5:39am I am siting at 37.0˚! This is definitely my coldest morning so far this fall.

[Extremeweatherguy]

At 6am, the local Houston-area airports looked like this...

Conroe - 34˚
Hooks - 37˚
IAH - 40˚
Hobby - 45˚
Sugar Land - 40˚

[CajunMama]

It got down to 36 here. I wasn't expecting it to be that chilly! It's warming up nicely now though!

[southerngale]

It got down to 35° at the Weatherbug station just to my north and 37° at the one just to my south. I fell asleep on the couch and woke up about 5am freezing my tootsies off. I couldn't get in my bed fast enough! It's currently 65° and feels great outside.

As for the rain, Yankee and Jen... I got some last Saturday and Sunday. After nearly a year and a half of rain all the time, it hadn't rained much in the past few months, and it was welcomed. The ground was wet for a few days, but has since dried up. It's nice how much faster it dries up when it isn't raining all the time!! We could probably use some more, but I sure have been enjoying my yard the past few months... something I haven't really been able to do since spring 2006!

[Ptarmigan]

I hear Saturday night and Sunday could rainy and even stormy. We could get some rain.

[Ptarmigan]

HPC update:

Storms are expected to increase by late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening over parts of south and sern TX as the boundary layer destabilizes and as mid level forcing for ascent increases in advance of the shortwave trough. Deep layer shear will be sufficient for some storms to develop supercell structures. This area will be monitored for a possible upgrade to slight risk in day 1 outlooks.

[southerngale]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
532 AM CST SAT NOV 17 2007

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-172200-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
532 AM CST SAT NOV 17 2007

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

RAPID CHANGES IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WEST TEXAS MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING...AND A SURFACE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS. THIS COMBINATION WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FORMATION TONIGHT...WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
NOON SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. RAINFALL
TOTALS WITHIN THIS REGION WILL AVERAGE 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 4 OR MORE INCHES POSSIBLE WITHIN AREAS OF POSSIBLE
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM THE NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. EXACT PINPOINT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE ALWAYS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. PLEASE
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES
ON THIS DEVELOPING HEAVY RAINFALL SITUATION.

$$

LANDRENEAU

[PTrackerLA]

Hopefully this rain event pans out without too many flooding problems. We could really use a good soaking and this could do the trick with 2"-4" of rain forecasted. We haven't had a decent rainfall in almost a month and we're over 3" below normal for the year. The long term forecast this winter indicates a drought developing so we need what we can get now.

[Ptarmigan]

Hopefully this rain event pans out without too many flooding problems. We could really use a good soaking and this could do the trick with 2"-4" of rain forecasted. We haven't had a decent rainfall in almost a month and we're over 3" below normal for the year. The long term forecast this winter indicates a drought developing so we need what we can get now.

I don't think flooding won't be much of a problem since we haven't had any rain for weeks.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is our latest Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving weekend forecast from the NWS...

Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.

Thanksgiving Day: Partly sunny, with a high near 59.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 41.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41.

Saturday: A chance of rain and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58.

...Looks pretty chilly! And according to the models, this forecast may even be too warm. Time to get out those jackets!

[Yankeegirl]

Good! I love to cook Thanksgiving dinner when its cold outside... I hate to cook and have to have the a/c on!! I wish it would get cooler sooner!!

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like we have storms to the west.

[Yankeegirl]

bring it on!

[Extremeweatherguy]

These storms are leading to TORNADO WARNINGS to our west...


TORNADO WARNING
TXC177-180100-
/O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0036.071118T0035Z-071118T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
635 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
GONZALES COUNTY...

* UNTIL 700 PM CST.

* AT 634 PM CST...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GONZALES...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GONZALES BY 640 PM CST...
9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAELDER BY 700 PM CST...

IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...GET OUT AND GO TO A STURDY
SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH
OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 2973 9738 2971 9724 2965 9717 2941 9744
2942 9761 2945 9766
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 216DEG 18KT 2948 9745

[Yankeegirl]

But they all look like they are going to stay to the west of us for now...

[Extremeweatherguy]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 180056Z - 180300Z

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION APPEARS MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING.
RECENT SFC DATA SUGGESTS A WEAK WARM FRONT OR MOISTURE SURGE HAS
RETURNED WELL INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS NOW
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F. 00Z SOUNDING FROM CRP CLEARLY SAMPLES
THIS AIRMASS WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG
ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO A FEW WEAK
SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED JUST EAST OF SAT. ONE MAJOR IMPEDIMENT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION IS THE RELATIVELY
WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY ROTATE AT TIMES...THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ULTIMATELY
HINDER ANY MEANINGFUL DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL OR TORNADO THREAT.
EVEN SO...STRONG THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA LATER THIS EVENING.

..DARROW.. 11/18/2007


ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

29199792 30429689 30009577 29279507 28289769

Looks like the SPC thinks we may be in line for some strong storms later tonight!