SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff Lindner...

Flash flooding ongoing this morning across Polk County after 7-11 inches of rainfall overnight.

Stalled boundary from S of CLL to Lake Livingston resulting in training storms along this line. Additionally a small MCS has recently developed over SE TX/SW LA and is backbuilding toward the SW. Radar also shows scattered showers advancing inland from the coast along Galveston/Brazoria/Matagorda counties. Air mass is highly unstable and very moist with PWS over 2.0 inches. As noted with overnight rainfall over Polk County the air mass is capable of some fairly significant rainfall.

Feel MCS from the E will slowly weaken this morning as low level jet mixes out with heating. Combination of outflow boundary and convection to the north will set the stage for more development after the noon hour as the air mass heats to the trigger temperatures. Upper level winds support slow ENE to ESE storm motions and a favorable pattern for backbuilding into the SSW low level flow. This pattern favors cell training and some fairly hefty rainfall totals.

Feel this is our best shot at rainfall this week and for the next several days…so hopefully most will get wetting rains as the heat will return with force this weekend into next week with rain chances going toward less than 10%.

[Flyinman]

Been watching all the rain now for 2 weeks to the North and East. I sure hope we get some of the rain today, but again this morning it is just a little too far North.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
833 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 930 AM CDT

* AT 830 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT FLASH FLOODING WAS LIKELY FROM A THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF
SEGNO.

* LOCATIONS IN THE FLOOD WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LIVINGSTON AND GOODRICH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS...BAYOUS..AND FARM-TO-MARKET OR OTHER
SECONDARY ROADS MAY FLOOD QUICKLY. AVOID LOCATIONS WHERE WATER COVERS
THE GROUND!

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

[jasons2k]

It is inching ever so closer to my house. I sure hope I get some decent rain today before it all melts away.

[srainhoutx]

Thought this may be coming...Northern Liberty County may be next.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
904 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

TXC041-051-311600-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0040.090731T1404Z-090731T1600Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZOS TX-BURLESON TX-
904 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHERN BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 902 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MILLICAN TO
SNOOK TO 8 MILES WEST OF SOMERVILLE. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
IF THIS HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
929 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 925 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT FLASH FLOODING WAS LIKELY FROM A THUNDERSTORM NEAR
TARKINGTON PRAIRIE. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
POLK AND EASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTIES. SOME OF THESE AREAS IN
POLK COUNTY HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL. LAW
ENFORCEMENT REPORT WATER ON ROADWAYS BUT NO ROAD CLOSURES.

* LOCATIONS IN THE FLOOD WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SEGNO...ROMAYOR...MOSS HILL...MOSCOW...LEGGETT...LAKE LIVINGSTON
STATE PARK...ALABAMA-COUSHATTA RESERVATION...SHEPHERD...SEVEN
OAKS...ONALASKA...LIVINGSTON...KENEFICK...HARDIN...GOODRICH...
DAYTON LAKES AND CLEVELAND.

[srainhoutx]

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/31/09 1357Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1345Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...ONGOING CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH OF A PUSH FROM THE WEST TO DRIFT
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN SOUTH...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WESTERLY FLOW AND REMAINS OF DECAYING MCS
TO THE WEST ACTUALLY HAVING A SUBTLE BUT NOTICEABLE POSITIVE AFFECT IN
DEFLECTING HEAVIEST RAINS IN POLK COUNTY SOUTH. THIS WOULD BE POSITIVE
FOR POLK...BUT STILL SOME CONCERN JUST DOWNSTREAM IN TYLER COUNTY WHERE
THERE HAS NOT BE AS HIGH AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. LITTLE MOVEMENT SEEN WITH
CONVECTION CENTERED OVER BRAZOS COUNTY BUT THAT HAS JUST SHOWN UP ON
THE SCENE BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCHED. GFS PWAT FORECAST FOR 12Z TOO FAR
SOUTH AS PER LATEST GPS...RADIOSONDE ANALYSIS WHICH CAN INSURE CONVECTIVE
CELLS CONTINUING OVER SE TX FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING...SO HEAVY RAIN THAT
HAS SINKED SOUTH ON POLK COULD HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON LIBERTY COUNTY/NW
HARDIN COUNTY FOR NEXT HR OR 2.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...

[KatDaddy]

I see TCUs NW of downtown. Come on rain!

[jasons2k]

Call me a masochist, but I would love to see Montgomery on that list. The most recent radar shot shows two blips over The Woodlands - maybe these are new/future storms going-up?

The system keeps on backbuilding to the west/SW. If high rain totals & flooding reports continue to pour in (hehe), this will once again uphold my unscientific theory of 'gotcha!' when you least expect it.

[srainhoutx]

Yeah, storms appearing to continue to build along the boundry in Burleson County and new cells firing to the W. Just goes to show, you never know.

[KatDaddy]

More hope for heavy rainfall:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH OF COLLEGE
STATION TO LIBERTY WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL IN
BURLESON/BRAZOS COUNTIES AND LIBERTY COUNTY. UPDATED POPS FOR
TODAY TO HIT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL A LITTLE HARDER. POSSIBLE
FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES HIGHER THAN 2 INCHES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTH.
THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO HAVE HIGHER POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

[jasons2k]

They are going-up now as we speak...it's showtime!

[Tireman4]

Heavy rain in Humble the past 20-25 minutes.

[KatDaddy]

Hoping the cell in central Brazoria County continues to develop and head NE into NW Galveston County.

[srainhoutx]

Just drove through some heavy stuff near HWY 6 N/FM 529 area. OT, the "local forum' is down for the moment.

[KatDaddy]

Thanks for update on local forum srainhoutx. I had been wondering what was going.

[Tireman4]

It looks like more heavy rain coming for Humble.

[srainhoutx]

Looking good in Waller County as well. Jason's yard will be happy.

[jasons2k]

Hoping the cell in central Brazoria County continues to develop and head NE into NW Galveston County.

I think your best chances will come a bit later when/after the outflow pushes SW across Galveston county...it's moving across the bay now.

[southerngale]

Wow, what an interesting night, particularly after days of all the rain/storms dancing around me. The lightning show started earlier in the night... I looked outside and noticed it around 9ish, maybe a little earlier. It never ended. Sometime around midnight or a little later, I started hearing thunder and it never stopped, all night long. Some of the storms were just north of here for a while, but with frequent thunder and lightning, then they made it here. Thunder and lightning, off and on heavy to moderate rain, all. night. long. Literally. And much of this morning as well. I can't remember the last time I've seen/heard thunder and lightning for such a long period of time. Radar estimates widespread several inch totals, with some areas only receiving an inch or less, but others receiving quite a bit. North of here, in the lakes area, lots of 6-8 inch totals, with some 10+ spots.