Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

Happy new year to all! we had a cool christmas' eve but we've had a warm new year's eve in El Salvador although I can tell that I've enjoyed both and I hope you are enjoying too. See you next year on storm2k (well it's still 2009 on this part of the world).

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all on this first day of 2010.Here is the first discussion of the year.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST FRI JAN 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. ACTIVE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
REGION MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BREEZE CONDITIONS
STILL THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AND SATELITE IMAGES INDICATED THAT MOST
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED THIS MORNING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...SOME FAST MOVING PASSING SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING MAINLY
THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF DRIER AIR MOVES OVER
THE REGION. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT
EAST AND WEAKEN. FOR SUNDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY WITH
PW VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 1.0 INCH...AS VERY STABLE AIR MASS
MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. FOR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN CONCERN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BE THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. REFER TO
MARINE SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. HAPPY NEW YEAR 2010!.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING OVER THE AREA AS THE BOUNDARY
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 01/22Z
AND WINDS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH UNTIL
AFTER 01/22Z. COASTAL STATIONS WILL SEE 15G25 KTS. AT THE TAF
SITES...VFR WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS


&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
...PEAKING THIS MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO FRESH...LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COMBINATION OF WINDS
AND SWELLS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS...MAINTAINING
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. REFER TO
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion.High Surf Advisory is cancelled.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
230 PM AST FRI JAN 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER LOCAL AREA TO
PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THIS
WEEKEND. BY NEXT WEEK A FEW FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRUSH THE
AREA...MARGINALLY INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP. SEAS TO REMAIN
HAZARDOUS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
CARIBBEAN/SW ATLC HELPED PUSH LOW LEVEL SHEAR LINE SOUTH OF LOCAL
AREA LAST EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHEAR LINE NOW WELL
SOUTH OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS...A SCENARIO HANDLED VERY POORLY BY
ALL MODELS. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE MID 60S
AS MUCH MORE STABLE POST FRONTAL AIR IS NOW IN PLACE. HAVE DROPPED
POPS AND INTRODUCED A FEW NO WEATHER GRIDS...A RARITY IN THIS
AREA. SO WE WILL BE ABLE TO START THE NEW YEAR OFF WITH BEAUTIFUL
SUNNY SKIES...A VERY NICE BREEZE OF 15 MPH...AND COMFORTABLE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

A MAJOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL DEEPEN THIS WEEKEND AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT...AND
ACCOMPANYING SET OF SWELLS ACROSS THE SW ATLC TOWARDS THE LOCAL
AREA BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY. CURRENT GFS SOLUTION KEEPS STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC IN PLACE...FORCING FRONTAL
TROUGH TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...PERHAPS BRUSHING THE NWRN PORTION OF CWA. BY MID
WEEK...THE DEEP LOW PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STARTS TO TRACK ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DRAGS AROUND THE STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...LIKELY KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
VERY NEARBY. A PATTERN PROVEN TO BE POORLY HANDLED NEARLY EVERY
TIME BY MODELS. SO WILL KEEP SCATTERED RANGE POPS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED. LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN...AND CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON TRACK OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWED BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO AROUND 10 FEET. LIKELY A FEW AREAS WHERE UP TO 15
FOOT STILL MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY MOST
AREAS WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE DECREASED IN THE SURF ZONE. HOWEVER...SEAS
WILL REMAIN QUITE ROUGH AS BUOY 41403 SHOWING SEAS OF AROUND 10
FEET WITH SPECTRAL DENSITY PLOT SHOWING SEVERAL SWELL/WIND WAVE
GROUPS COMBINING TO CREATE CONFUSED SEAS. MOST OF THE ENERGY IS
NOW AROUND 7 SECONDS...WHICH MAKES SITUATION WORSE FOR MARINERS
BUT BETTER FOR SWIMMERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN SCA RANGE REALLY
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...WITH HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 7 TO 10 FEET OVER THE
EXPOSED WATERS. NEXT SWELL GROUP COURTESY OF DEEP COASTAL BOMB TO
DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND OFF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST...SHOULD HIT LOCAL
WATERS BY TUESDAY...BUT THIS GROUP WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS POTENT AS
THE LAST.

[cycloneye]

Here are the final stats of rainfall for San Juan in 2009.December was below normal but overall 2009 was above normal.

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        T             0.40 1973   0.11  -0.11     0.00
  MONTH TO DATE    1.83                      4.57  -2.74     4.58
  SINCE DEC 1      1.83                      4.57  -2.74     4.58
  SINCE JAN 1     64.86                     50.76  14.10    54.64


[cycloneye]

Good morning to all on the first Saturday of 2010.Good weather in general expected until mid=week for NE Caribbean.Another high swell event for next week but not as high as the past one.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST SAT JAN 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPOND
TO WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
DROPPED SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEK...AS LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES HAS ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO OCCUR MORE EFFECTIVELY. WINDS HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAX. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS WEAKENING...AND SHIFTING EAST...AS A POTENT LOW
PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BUT MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
FEATURE...WILL ENHANCE SOME THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ISLAND.
NAM12 AND GFS360 COMPUTER MODELS SHOWS A WIND SHIFT BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM EAST TO
SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A SLOT OF DRIER AIR
OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DECREASING THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ALSO...HIGHER THAN NORMAL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES COULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO WITH THE SOUTH WIND FLOW. FOR WEDNESDAY...COMPUTER
MODELS INDICATED ANOTHER COLD FRONT...STRONGER...WILL APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH 02/22Z EXCEPT AFT 02/18Z
IN TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UP THROUGH 12 THOUSAND FEET EXCEPT
WHERE AUGMENTED BY SEA BREEZES.

&&

.MARINE...ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE TODAY AS WINDS RELAX AND NORTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE. A BATCH OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
U.S. WILL INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING.

[Gustywind]

[Macrocane]

A windy saturday is expected in Guatemal, Honduras and El Salvador because the first cold front of the year has reached the area. Here is the saturday's forecast for El Salvador:

The skies will be mostly clear with a few clouds. A situation of northerly winds is expected with a velocity between 15 and 27 km/h (9-17 mph) and occasionally 35-40 km/h (22-27 mph) gusts, especially in higher terrain. Temperatures will continue to be warm in the peak sunlight hours and cool at night and dawn

Comments about dominant systems: Atmospheric condictions in El Salvador will be influenced by a cold front and its related high pressure system producing a moderate northerly winds situation and a drop in temperatures at night and dawn hours

Here is the link with the official forecast (in Spanish): http://www.snet.gob.sv/ver/meteorologia/pronostico/24+horas/

[cycloneye]

Here are the stats of 2009 at San Juan.

* January marked the beginning of the dry season across Puerto Rico. However, 2009 began with the remnants of multiple cold fronts brushing the northern half of Puerto Rico, which contributed to above normal precipitation across much of the island for the month.

*The dry season across the local islands generally continues through March. However, at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport in San Juan, both February and March 2009 recorded precipitation totals more than one inch above average.

*April generally marks the transition to the rainy season. Statistically speaking the month of April is much wetter than March, however this is not always the case. April 2009 was the first full month of 2009 in which below normal precipitation was recorded island wide across Puerto Rico. (An official total of 2.79" of rain was recorded at the LMM Airport in San Juan, making it the third driest month of 2009.)

*May 2009 was a rather wet month across the local islands due to a fairly persistent area of upper level troughiness that dominated the southwestern Atlantic and much of the Eastern Caribbean Sea. This brought a humid trade wind flow across Puerto Rico, resulting in 26 days in which at least a Trace of precipitation was recorded in San Juan.
*June is a transition between the normally wet month of May, and typically a short dry spell before the hurricane season. This was not the case in 2009. The deep and persistent upper level trough continued over the Southwestern Atlantic and Eastern Caribbean for much of the month, promoting a constant flow of moist tropical air over the region. When the month came to a close, June 2009 ended as the second wettest June on record at the LMM Airport in San Juan.

*Precipitation for the month of July was dictated by the typical mesoscale-driven nocturnal/diurnal regime across the local islands. In terms of temperature, July 2009 had one of the warmest starts on record. A new record for the warmest minimum temperature was set on July 16th, when the morning low temperature only fell to a balmy 82 degrees. In fact, the low temperature did not fall below 80 degrees a record 19 times during the month!
*At the LMM International Airport, 8.57" of rain fell during the month of August, making it the third wettest month of 2009. To put this in perspective, LMM Airport received 3.35" of rain above the normal for the month.

*September 10th marks the peak of the hurricane season across Puerto Rico. September 2009 was a rather quiet month tropically speaking, with only two named storms, Erika and Fred. On September 3rd, a tropical storm warning was issued for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands due to the forecast proximity of Tropical Storm Erika.

*October 2009 ended as the warmest October on record at the LMM Airport in San Juan. The average low temperature was 79F, a full degree warmer than the previous record of 78F set in 1980. During the month, the record warmest minimum temperature was tied or broken on 15 separate days, and the average daily temperature was above normal every single day of the month.

*November 2009 ended as the third wettest November on record and the wettest month of 2009 at LMM Airport in San Juan. The end of November also marked the end of the hurricane season, with below normal tropical cyclone activity observed for the year. A total of nine named storms were observed in 2009, three of which became hurricanes and two of which became major hurricanes.

*December 2009 was the driest month of the year at the LMM Airport in San Juan and 3rd driest on record. A total of only 1.83” fell over the course of the month, which was 2.54” below the normal of 4.57” for December.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=2009_review

[cycloneye]

New Record High for January 2 in San Juan

89F was the high breaking the record that was at 87F.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=record100102

A new record High Temperature was set at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport in San Juan on January 2nd, 2010. The temperature soared to 89F at 12:21 PM, which surpassed the old record of 87F, last reached on January 2nd, 1996 and also reached on January 2nd, 1962. The normal High Temperature for January 2nd is 83F. This record follows an unusually warm 2009, which was the 4th warmest year on record in San Juan, PR.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all on this first Sunday of the new year.Not looking bad weatherwise but maybe unusually warm for this time of year.Seas will increase again by Monday so stay tuned to that.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST SUN JAN 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WHILE FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL BETWEEN 20
AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE. A STRONG SUB TROPICAL JET WILL WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TROUGHINESS
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS
NORTH OF 20 NORTH.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA LEAVES A
SADDLE IN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH
LATITUDE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REAPPEARS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW TRAVELS UP
THE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND STRENGTHENS EXPLOSIVELY FRIDAY
NIGHT...REGENERATING THE SADDLE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN HAS LITTLE
MOISTURE AND MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL CREATE ABOVE NORMAL
WARMTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.


&&

.DISCUSSION...RECORD WARMTH FOR THE DATE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF PUERTO RICO COULD CONTINUE TODAY AS WEAK SOUTH WINDS
ALLOW CONSIDERABLE WARMING AND BLOCK THE EARLY INITIATION OF THE
SEA BREEZE OVER THE AREA. MUCH OF THIS IS CAUSED BY THE WEAKNESS
OF THE RIDGE ORIENTED EAST-WEST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA CAUSED
BY A STRONG LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND THE LOW DUMB-BELLING AROUND
IT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD
THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...KEEPING THE TROUGH FROM
ADVANCING INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
MOISTURE PATCHY AT BEST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WITH FRONTS UNABLE TO
PENETRATE THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH AND NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...WARM WEATHER WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL IN BOTH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. WINDS AT 850 MB WERE LIGHT WESTERLY AT 03/00Z BUT BOTH
THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINNING BETWEEN
03/12-18Z AND INCREASING TO 25 KNOTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
BAND OF MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. MODELS ARE NOT
AS CLEAR ON THE NEXT PATCH OF SHOWERS OR THEIR CAUSE. THE GFS
SHOWS CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS THE MAIN
GENERATOR OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS CAUSES
THE HIGHER POPS DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THE NAM RELIES ON
BUBBLES OF MOISTURE THAT SWIRL IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS THE COLD FRONT RECEDES TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST AND SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES MARKEDLY AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASH EMISSIONS FROM MONTSERRAT
EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES...BUT MAY NEAR TKPK
AFTER 03/14Z...IF EMISSIONS CONTINUE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...PUERTO RICO WILL ENJOY THE LULL IN SWELLS FOR LESS THAN
24 HOURS. THE NEXT TRAIN WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT ITS PEAK ON MONDAY...ANOTHER
HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR BREAKING WAVES OF 9 TO 12
FEET. THIS HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE HOISTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY IN ALL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

[Macrocane]

Good morning everyone, it's a nice day in El Salvador, here is the link to today's forecast: http://www.snet.gob.sv/ver/meteorologia/pronostico/24+horas/

The sky will be clear and occassionally partly cloudy, isolated precipitations could occur in diurnal hours in some areas in the north, west and center of the country. At night weak to moderate northerly winds will begin again increasing their speed on Monday. Temperatures wiil be warm at sunlight hours and cool at night.

Dominant systems: The cold front and it's related high pressure will weaken this will allow northerly winds to be weak and occassionally moderate in higher terrain. Because of the weakening of the systems moisture form the Pacific will move into the country increasing the probability of rain in some areas. During sunday night the high pressure will strengthen again and the northerly winds will increase their speed on Monday

By the way, those 2009 stats for Puerto Rico are very interesting.

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory is up

Here we go again with a high surf advisory.This expected event will not be with higher swells than the big past event of last week but nerverless,it will be high enough to take all kind of precautions.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
226 PM AST SUN JAN 3 2010

...ANOTHER SET OF NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
EXPOSED COASTLINES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-040230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SU.Y.0001.100104T1200Z-100105T1500Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
226 PM AST SUN JAN 3 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM AST
TUESDAY...

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAS GENERATED
ANOTHER SET OF NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELLS WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS MONDAY MORNING. WITH PEAK SWELL ENERGY OF AROUND 11 FEET
AT 10 TO 12 SECONDS...BREAKING WAVES UP TO 15 FEET WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS REEFS...AND STEEP ROCKY COASTLINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO
NOT PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE
TO THE BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAVE THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM
TO SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE
URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE
BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF
ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE
LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THE TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 1.7 FEET AT 12:04 PM MONDAY
1.2 FEET AT 12:10 AM TUESDAY

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 1.3 FEET AT 12:03 PM MONDAY
0.5 FEET AT 11:40 PM MONDAY


STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
SAN JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert has been requiered for a "rough and dangerous sea" (because of the arrival tommorow morning of a strong swell from a N to NW direction) in the Northern Leewards... Waves should reach more than 2m50 or even 3meters.
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php (french version for those who are interested).
I will keep you informed as possible my friends. Whereas, Guadeloupe could pass in yellow alert too...given Meteo-France.
I will keep you informed as possible my carib friends .

[Gustywind]

High Surf Advisory maintained...

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 031913
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST SUN JAN 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL
HELP TO LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTHWESTWARD AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT LIMITED
LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO
RESULT IN NICE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES
ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING...AND A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING 8 AM MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECT RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH MID WEEK IN A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND EACH AFTERNOON...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH CLOSE TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WHICH
MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BRIEF...AS THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO RETREAT AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EMISSIONS FROM MONTSERRAT EXPECTED
TO STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SEAS
FOR SMALL CRAFTS BEGINNING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
OVERNIGHT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES ON MONDAY.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 87 74 86 / 20 20 0 10
STT 75 85 76 84 / 10 20 10 20

&&


.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM AST TUESDAY FOR
CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-VIEQUES.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER MIDNIGHT AST AMZ710.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM AST TUESDAY FOR ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.


SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER MIDNIGHT AST AMZ710.
&&

$$

93/04

[vbhoutex]

Wow!! Again? Hopefully this will not be like the last one.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.High Surf advisory in effect and unusually warm for this time of year.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST MON JAN 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA WHILE A STRONG SUB TROPICAL JET MOVES EAST
NORTHEAST OUT OF FLORIDA OR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
WHILE A HIGH CIRCULATES NEAR 20 NORTH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS BRINGS A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 8 DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE
NEXT 8 TO 10 DAYS. OCCASIONALLY TRIGGERING SHOWERS OR SPREADING
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. ITS CLOSEST APPROACH AND GREATEST EFFECT
WILL LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS HOVERING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA...AS EVIDENCED BY THE PACKING IN THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
LINES AND THE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO A MASSIVE AND COLD PAIR OF
LOWS JUST OFFSHORE FROM MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. THE HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR 26 NORTH AND BETWEEN 30 AND 40 WEST IS KEEPING SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST TWO OR THREE MORE DAYS AND HOLDING THE
FRONT AT BAY. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SAN JUAN AT OR CLOSE TO
RECORD WARMTH FOR THIS DATE TODAY. MODELS SHOW THAT A PULSE FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH THE FRONT A LITTLE CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY...AND
...SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY RESULT FOR THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL NOT
BE A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT. LATE ON THURSDAY THE FRONT
RETREATS TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN AND SHOWERS DIMINISH OVER THE
AREA. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD THUS LIMITING
THE STRENGTH OF THE SHOWERS THAT DO FORM IN THE RELATIVELY MOIST
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 10 THOUSAND FEET. THE FACT THAT THE SUB
TROPICAL JET TENDS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FLORIDA OR GEORGIA ALSO
SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION AND IS UNLIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA IN
THE NEAR FUTURE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE AND CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON
TODAY AND TOMORROW. A BAND OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN IN BOTH THE IR IMAGERY
AND THE MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 04/21-24Z WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD COAST...WHICH IS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR FOLLOWS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CLOSES
IN ON THE AREA WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE WETTEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK AND FOLLOWING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. MOS GUIDANCE ALSO REFLECTS THE
LOWERING THICKNESS VALUES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASH EMISSIONS FROM THE MONTSERRAT
VOLCANO WILL AFFECT TKPK FROM 04/10Z THROUGH AT LEAST 04/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...SWELL HAVE
ALREADY RISEN FROM A LOW OF 3.9 FEET JUST BEFORE 04/00Z TO 8.9
FEET AT BUOY 41043 AND THESE SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ARRIVING
IN THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 16
FEET ON THE COASTS WITH NORTHERN EXPOSURES. THE WAVE WATCH MODEL EXPECTS
THESE SWELL TO PEAK IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
FROM NOON TO AROUND MIDNIGHT TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF.
A SECOND AND LESSER SWELL TRAIN WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE CARIBBEAN...WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE
SLOWLY TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BUT THE CARIBBEAN WILL BE MOSTLY PROTECTED FROM THE NEWLY
ARRIVING SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC.


&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DATE IS 87 DEGREES SET IN 1996.
SAN JUAN IS LIKELY TO GET CLOSE TO OR EXCEED THIS WITH THE
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. MOS IS FORECASTING 86 BUT WAS
ONE DEGREE TOO COOL YESTERDAY AND 4 DEGREES TOO COOL THE DAY
BEFORE.

[Macrocane]

The ridge that affected Central america this weekend weakened during a brief period but it has begun a strengthening trend again. Winds have increased their speed a lot on the last few hours, we've experienced a few very strong gusts I would dare to say the strongest gusts since the beggining of the cold front season, tomorrow is expected to be the most windy day. In a couple of hours the SNET (salvadoran met office) is going to release the 48 hours forecast and perhaps an update about the northerly winds situation. I will keep you updated.

[cycloneye]

A new record high temperature set in San Juan for January 4th

The mercury rose to 88F setting the new record for this date.The abnormal warm conditions continue but there may be some changes towards some rain and cooler temps as a front zaggs towards the area by Wednesday.The high swells continue to crash towards the beaches so all precautions have to be taken until the waves subside by Wednesday.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
333 PM AST MON JAN 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND DEEP TROUGHINESS
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SLIGHT
OSCILLATIONS IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE LOCALLY FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS...ALLOWING NORTH COASTAL
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB AGAIN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. PLEASE SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR INFORMATION ON SAN JUAN RECORD MAX
TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST
BECOMES A LITTLE MURKIER...AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE IS
FORECASTED TO RETURN "BACK" TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. NOT A LOT OF
DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT MODEL INDICATED SLIGHT WEAKENING OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SURFACE TO 700 MB TO OUR EAST...COULD ALLOW THIS
BOUNDARY TO SINK ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS IS IMPORTANT...
AS WE HAVE THE LOCAL THREE KINGS DAY HOLIDAY ON WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS INITIALLY LACKING...IT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
AND ALONG BOUNDARY AND THIS COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT
FORESEE A HEAVY RAIN OR FLOOD PROBLEM AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. BASED ON LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA...CONTINUOUS PLUME OF VA FROM MONTSERRAT
CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWEST WHILE FANNING OUT MORE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS ASH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
IMPACT TKPK AND POSSIBLY TNCM THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SURF CAMERAS AND WAVE MODELS
INDICATE THAT LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO PEAK ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THESE SWELLS WILL
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

IN ADDITION...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM
AST TUESDAY FOR THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND FOR ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE
ADJACENT SMALLER ISLANDS. PLEASE REFER TO CFWSJU FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

CLIMATE...AT 241 PM AST...THE MERCURY REACHED 88 DEGREES AT THE
SAN JUAN LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS READING
BROKE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE OF 87 DEGREES SET
IN 1996.

[Macrocane]

The 4th special advisory has been issued for the "Northerly winds" situation in El Salvador. Here is the link: http://www.snet.gob.sv/ver/meteorologia/informes+especiales/?evento=167

Translation:

Descripition of the event:A high pressure system extends a ridge over Central America allowing moderate to strong northerly winds to persist in El Salvador, the related cold front is weakening but the cooler temperatures will persist especially at night and dawn.

Forecast
The rest of monday: clear skies with some clouds especially in western mountain areas. Weak to moderate northerly winds persist with speed between 15 and 30 km/h (9-19 mph) and occassionally 40 km/h gusts (25 mph). Lowered temperatures are expected especially at night.

Tuesday, January 5: moderate and occasionally strong northerly winds continue. Speeds are expected to be between 20 and 30 km/h (12-19 mph) and gusts between 40 and 50 km/h (25-31 mph) especially in higher areas, lakes and open sea. It will feel very cool particularly at night and dawn.

Wednesday January 6th: Northerly winds will continue to affect the territory, with a weak to moderate intensity, speeds between 15-25 km/h (9-16 mph) and gusts between 30-40 km/h (19-25 mph). It will feel very cool particularly in night hours.

Temperatures will drop especially at night, between 9°C and 12°C (48°F and 54 °F) in mountain areas, between 14°C and 16 °C (57°F and 61°F) in the inner valleys, and between 18°C and 20°C (64°F and 68°F) on the coast.

Recommendations: People practicing navigation, fishing and water sports in lakes and sea are advised to evaluate the weather conditions before doing the mentioned activities. People should not be exposed to cold air gusts especially children and old people, stay away from trees and weak structures that could fail due to wind speed increase.

[cycloneye]

Here is the detailed information of the new record high temperature (88F) in San Juan set on the 4th day of January.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=record100102

A new record High Temperature was set at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport in San Juan on January 4th, 2009. At 242 PM AST, the temperature reached 88F, surpassing the previous record of 87F set back on January 4th, 1996. This is the second record high temperature recorded in San Juan since the 1st of the year. On January 2nd, 2010, the temperature soared to 89F at 12:21 PM, which surpassed the old record of 87F, also set back in 1996. The normal High Temperature for both January 2nd and 4th is 83F. These records follow an unusually warm 2009, which was the 4th warmest year on record in San Juan, PR.