Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

Latest NWS Miami snippet. If those winds would just veer NNE later tonight -- SE Florida would be spared but appears they will be about 6-8 hours too late.

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 211651
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1151 AM EST WED JAN 21 2009

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW-NNW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
EASTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING TO 5KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT. WINDS AT KAPF WILL BE SIMILAR SPEEDS BUT MORE OF A
N-NNE DIRECTION. SIMILAR DIRECTIONS AND LIGHT SPEEDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE NNE AT ALL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

[Scorpion]

Only 44 here under full sun.. very chilly indeed. Supposed to get down to 26 tonight.. we shall see.

[dizzyfish]

They lowered my low temp for tomorrow morning to 22.

[jdray]

NWS JAX hesitant to call for teens, but mentions the possibility. Current Forecast for me is 20F, was 19F earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
131 PM EST WED JAN 21 2009

...HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR 8 TO 12 HOURS TONIGHT...
...MINIMUM VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS EXPECTED FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA...

.SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
AREA...STILL A RAW JANUARY DAY WITH NOON TIME TEMPERATURES STILL
IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME
REMAINING IN PLACE. AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN ABSOLUTELY CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES AREA WIDE WITH LOW
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES INDICATING MARINE STRATO CU DECK TO BE A NON-
FACTOR FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE STAGE HAS BEEN SET WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR IN
PLACE...NEAR OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TEENS OVER THE AREA FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT IN
QUITE SOME TIME OVER THE AREA. MAV GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN
COLDER WITH VALUES NOW ADVERTISED IN THE MID TEENS OVER THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH MAV DID BETTER WITH LAST NIGHTS EVENT THAN PREVIOUS EVENT
DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH...STILL NOT CONVINCED
WE WILL GO QUITE THAT LOW WITH A 1027 MB HIGH. REGARDLESS...A HARD
FREEZE IS IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPS FOR
12 HOURS MORE INLAND LOCATIONS. USING A BLEND OF THE LATEST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND USING A BIT OF THE LATEST MAV AS WELL...UPPER
TEENS IS WHAT I COME UP WITH BUT EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL TWEAKS DOWNWARD.

[gatorcane]

It's very rare to see dewpoints this low across Florida...teens in central FL?

[HURAKAN]

High: 55.6ºF @ 1:27 PM

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful day.

[jinftl]

Any shift to the nne would take place along the immediate coast...and that is where the temp moderation would take place....but since this is generally the area not under a freeze warning, it would be of little impact overall (unless it was a strong nne flow which developed....and would impact the whole of south florida, including well inland areas from the shore).

ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO
AROUND FREEZING IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TOMORROW ACROSS WESTERN
SUBURBS...GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 IN BROWARD COUNTY AND
THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE EXTENSION IN MIAMI-DADE.

Map gives good idea of where freezing temps may occur..I-75 in Broward and Turnpike in Miami-Dade are far western highways (I-75 runs north to south in orange and Turnpike Extension runs north to south in green in western M-D).

Latest NWS Miami snippet. If those winds would just veer NNE later tonight -- SE Florida would be spared but appears they will be about 6-8 hours too late.

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Current Version
Previous Version: 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58
[Printable]

Links in the discussion text will open a (small) new browser window with more information inside.
A more complete Weather Glossary is Available Here

000
FXUS62 KMFL 211651
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1151 AM EST WED JAN 21 2009

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW-NNW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
EASTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING TO 5KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT. WINDS AT KAPF WILL BE SIMILAR SPEEDS BUT MORE OF A
N-NNE DIRECTION. SIMILAR DIRECTIONS AND LIGHT SPEEDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE NNE AT ALL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

[HURAKAN]

I live just to the west of the Turnpike and I have class tomorrow at 8 AM!!!!!

[jinftl]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
334 PM EST WED JAN 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
UPPER- LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VORT MAX WHICH SENT A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA YESTERDAY NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. A SERIES OF WEAKER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING INSUFFICIENT FOR EVEN
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL ANTICIPATED
OVER THE MAINLAND...THE STAGE IS SET FOR EXCELLENT RADITIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT...AS WINDS RELAX WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING
OVER THE PENINSULA. WILL MAINTAIN HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR
GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES...AS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE
MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
ELSEWHERE...WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL BUT COASTAL PALM
BEACH/BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH FREEZING CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL/BRIEF...AND CONFINED TO THE EXTREME
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METROPOLITAN ZONES. WITH DEW POINTS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...ANY FROST WILL LIKELY BE
MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD...AND HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...AS ANOTHER
DAY OF ABUNDANT INSOLATION WILL MORE EFFICIENTLY WARM THE DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH NO
ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL COLD THERMAL ADVECTION. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
VEER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
HOWEVER...VERY COLD LANDMASS WILL RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW ONCE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG BOTH COASTS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. ANOTHER VERY LIGHT FREEZE
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS GLADES COUNTY...AND WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED
FREEZE WATCH FOR THIS SINGLE ZONE.

AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED BY
FRIDAY...AS MODELS INDICATE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SLOWLY WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT SPREADS OVER FLORIDA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW AND THE
PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAY
ALLOW SHOWER CHANCES TO SLOWLY INCREASE ALONG THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

High today was only 46*F in the backyard...and it is still windy...

Daily Statistics
35/46*F
Very Frigid

[JonathanBelles]

Wow did that hard freeze warning expand!

[Scorpion]

Wow, with these very low dewpoints low 20's seems like a good possibility here...

[Sanibel]

Sanibel 56* - 42.5*


About as cold a high as its gets down here.


(No hurricane today)

[JonathanBelles]

mid 40's here before sunset...going to very cold tonight.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is beyond insane.
Currently 43*F in the back yard- and I am less than 100 feet from
Tampa Bay!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Saint Petersburg is forecasted to hit 38*F
according to the newschannels ...it's gonna be much colder than
that I am sure...

[O Town]

Wow, with these very low dewpoints low 20's seems like a good possibility here...

You bet it is.
I am putting out the sprinkler to make icicles for the kids. Got to do it once last year, and its been a few years before
that that it stayed freezing long enough to do it. Hoping all the tropicals I have make it, they are all covered but you
never know hopefully it only stays below or at 32 for a hour or 2. Can't wait for the weekend! 70's here we come!!!!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

My second coldest afternoon temperature in my 15 years here:
42*F at 5:44 PM....

Coldest was in late 1995 and early 1996, when the afternoon
temperature was 39*F.

Note: This is not a high temperature...the high was 46 earlier

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow. They are forecasting 24F in Orlando (MCO).

Brr!!!