Texas Spring 2013

[horselattitudesfarm]

Wouldcha look at that....a donut hole right over Austin! What have you guys done wrong!

It does look like the donut hole over Austin finally got filled in last night by more convection. Still not much for my farm south of I-10, long known to be a demarcation line for rain to the north and dry to the south.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Interesting numbers for the first ten days of May


JUST SOME NUMBERS HERE COVERING THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF MAY.

FOR CLL...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WAS 66.9 DEGREES WHICH IS 6.6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. RAINFALL TOTAL OF 4.43 INCHES IS 3.07 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.
YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL TOTAL OF 13.97 INCHES IS 0.69 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.
LAST YEAR`S RAINFALL TOTAL AT THIS TIME WAS 22.73 INCHES.

FOR IAH...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WAS 67.5 DEGREES WHICH IS 7.0 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. RAINFALL TOTAL OF 0.84 INCHES IS 0.80 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL TOTAL OF 9.14 INCHES IS 5.80 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
LAST YEAR`S RAINFALL TOTAL AT THIS TIME WAS 21.56 INCHES.

FOR HOU...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WAS 67.8 DEGREES WHICH IS 7.0 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. RAINFALL TOTAL OF 2.83 INCHES IS 1.39 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.
YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL TOTAL OF 18.32 INCHES IS 3.36 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.
LAST YEAR`S RAINFALL TOTAL AT THIS TIME WAS 19.75 INCHES.

FOR GLS...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WAS 69.2 DEGREES WHICH IS 6.6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. RAINFALL TOTAL OF 1.08 INCHES IS 0.18 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL TOTAL OF 14.68 INCHES IS 0.44 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.
LAST YEAR`S RAINFALL TOTAL AT THIS TIME WAS 17.84 INCHES.

[Ntxw]

Some visuals to add on TeamPlayersBlue's post. Cold springs have been hard to come by for more than a decade, definitely seeing one here.

Meteorological Spring so far with three weeks to go, unlikely to overcome the cold anomalies even with a heat wave rest of this month.



May thus far



If it's not going to be wet this outcome is the next best thing as it minimizes evaporation and we stay away from the death loop of heat and drought (cool dry air from the north instead of the hot dry air from the SW). The North Pacific has clearly changed it's configuration to a more +PDO look even though technically it is still -PDO just that the anomalies have moved. Hope this is a sign of a longer shift for the rest of this year.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Any estimates of where the death heat loop may be this summer? Could it move out west? About to research the SST anamolies to see where we may be headed as far as hurricanes this summer and the upcoming winter.

[Ntxw]

Any estimates of where the death heat loop may be this summer? Could it move out west? About to research the SST anamolies to see where we may be headed as far as hurricanes this summer and the upcoming winter.

From what I can tell based on latest long range guidance, SST's over the eastern Pacific off the coast will be warmer than it has been the past several years and fits well with spring trends so far. This is a makeshift +PDO for this region as the southern Pacific remains in the cold PDO mode. Warm waters in the oceans generally means high pressure, this equates to heat in the west. My guess is since drought in west Texas appears worse than east Texas we may see the ridge bulge out every now and then but NW and zonal flow may bring better summer time pop up storms than the past two seasons and less likely those streaks of enduring heat.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product ... e3Sea.html

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That NW flow would mean pretty hot days for us too im guessing? With the storms popping up around the ring of heat.

[somethingfunny]

Is it Spring yet?

[wxman57]

Interesting numbers for the first ten days of May


JUST SOME NUMBERS HERE COVERING THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF MAY.

FOR CLL...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WAS 66.9 DEGREES WHICH IS 6.6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. RAINFALL TOTAL OF 4.43 INCHES IS 3.07 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.
YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL TOTAL OF 13.97 INCHES IS 0.69 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.
LAST YEAR`S RAINFALL TOTAL AT THIS TIME WAS 22.73 INCHES.

FOR IAH...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WAS 67.5 DEGREES WHICH IS 7.0 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. RAINFALL TOTAL OF 0.84 INCHES IS 0.80 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL TOTAL OF 9.14 INCHES IS 5.80 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
LAST YEAR`S RAINFALL TOTAL AT THIS TIME WAS 21.56 INCHES.

FOR HOU...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WAS 67.8 DEGREES WHICH IS 7.0 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. RAINFALL TOTAL OF 2.83 INCHES IS 1.39 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.
YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL TOTAL OF 18.32 INCHES IS 3.36 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.
LAST YEAR`S RAINFALL TOTAL AT THIS TIME WAS 19.75 INCHES.

FOR GLS...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WAS 69.2 DEGREES WHICH IS 6.6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. RAINFALL TOTAL OF 1.08 INCHES IS 0.18 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL TOTAL OF 14.68 INCHES IS 0.44 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.
LAST YEAR`S RAINFALL TOTAL AT THIS TIME WAS 17.84 INCHES.

IAH isn't very representative of most of Houston, since many areas got 3-7" of rain on the day IAH got 0.26". I'm at 20.7" for the year and 3.36" for May.

[weatherdude1108]

Another half-inch of rain since 3:00 this morning at the Weatherdude barracks as of 6:15am Wednesday 5/15. Off and on moderate and heavy rain thanks to the low pressure over the Burros. Raining VERY HEAVY on house as I type. This time, we actually went less than a month since the last rain. Just five DAYS! This is more like the Spring I remember as a kid. it would be awesome if it stayed that way. I'm seeing much warmer temps on the horizon as the death ridge tries to make its infamous presence. But for now, I'm enjoying this WATER!!

[ndale]

We just received almost half and inch of rain from the morning thunder shower. If this pattern of rain every week or so will only continue thru the rest of spring.

[Ntxw]

Short range models show MCS activity along I-35 tonight. Severe weather warnings have been hard to come by this spring, maybe this evening will pick up in activity.

[Portastorm]

Short range models show MCS activity along I-35 tonight. Severe weather warnings have been hard to come by this spring, maybe this evening will pick up in activity.

I'm thinking tonight's action may be more favorable for areas near Temple/Belton and north up to DFW. Wish we could get some more rain out of this pattern but not sure we in Austin will win out tonight. After tonight, it looks like a good solid week of warmth and no rain.

[Ntxw]

Well the storms seems to have fired further east than models projected and so far have held singular supercell mode, especially just west of the metroplex, keep an eye on them.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 600 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS EXPECTED WITH SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF ARDMORE
OKLAHOMA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

****

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

TORNADO WATCH 161 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC027-035-049-077-083-085-093-097-099-113-121-133-139-143-147-
181-193-217-221-231-237-251-281-307-309-333-337-363-367-397-411-
425-429-439-497-503-160600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0161.130515T2300Z-130516T0600Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BELL BOSQUE BROWN
CLAY COLEMAN COLLIN
COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL
DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND
ELLIS ERATH FANNIN
GRAYSON HAMILTON HILL
HOOD HUNT JACK
JOHNSON LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH
MCLENNAN MILLS MONTAGUE
PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL
SAN SABA SOMERVELL STEPHENS
TARRANT WISE YOUNG
$$


ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...

[Ntxw]

Here we go...

TORNADO WARNING
TXC363-367-160015-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0004.130515T2324Z-130516T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
624 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL PALO PINTO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CENTRAL PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 624 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH. THIS DEVELOPING TORNADO IS HEADED RIGHT INTO THE HEART
OF THE CITY OF MINERAL WELLS...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MINERAL WELLS AROUND 630 PM CDT...
COOL...MILLSAP AND MINERAL WELLS STATE PARK AROUND 640 PM CDT...
WEATHERFORD AND HUDSON OAKS AROUND 715 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES FOR A STORM SHELTER OR PERMANENT BUILDING. IF
NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.

[Ntxw]

TORNADO WARNING
TXC237-337-497-160015-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0005.130515T2326Z-130516T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN JACK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHERN MONTAGUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHERN WISE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 626 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 16 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CHICO...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CHICO AROUND 700 PM CDT...
ALVORD AROUND 710 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO AN INTERIOR BATHROOM...CLOSET...OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR BUILDING. COVER YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS...OR A
MATTRESS FOR PROTECTION.

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Well the storms seems to have fired further east than models projected and so far have held singular supercell mode, especially just west of the metroplex, keep an eye on them.

Thats disappointing. I was hoping for a big juicy MCS that moves in from further west so we could ALL get some rain. I long for one of those 'almost-all-night' MCS's with lots of cloud-to-cloud lightning and a steady soaking rain that I can sleep to. Now it looks like we will either be hiding from, or watching from some distance a few string-of-pearl supercells that will miss most of us and leave us watching lightning from afar, and of course, no rain. I can just watch the cotton from my cottonwood keep blowing around on my now extremely dry grass and driveway

[Ntxw]

Per TWC: Debris in the air around Sunset, TX. That's the storm straddling Montague and Wise counties.

[Ntxw]

Seeing pictures of a tornado in Parker county. That storm is really cranking, folks in Tarrant County need to prepare.

Edit: Per local NBC news, multiple tornadoes (possibly wedge) on the Parker county cell. Debris in Millsap.

[Ntxw]

Thats disappointing. I was hoping for a big juicy MCS that moves in from further west so we could ALL get some rain. I long for one of those 'almost-all-night' MCS's with lots of cloud-to-cloud lightning and a steady soaking rain that I can sleep to. Now it looks like we will either be hiding from, or watching from some distance a few string-of-pearl supercells that will miss most of us and leave us watching lightning from afar, and of course, no rain. I can just watch the cotton from my cottonwood keep blowing around on my now extremely dry grass and driveway

There are still pieces of energy from the system that will pivot through, development is occurring in NW Texas. I'm not sure if they will grow and consolidate into a full MCS but there should be several more chances tonight. The current activity wasn't foreseen by the short range guidance.

[Ntxw]

Spotters reporting developing tornado near Granbury in Hood county, debris ball seen on radar in southern Parker county heading towards Annetta South. Storms are starting to fill in, maybe this will diminish tornado threat some.