Texas Fall 2013

[Rgv20]

Had a low of 75 this morning....75!!!

[dhweather]

That blessed 4+ area moved further east and north, I was really hoping it would slide slightly westward to feed the lakes that amount of rain.

[Ntxw]

I think much will depend on the slow moving front. If thunderstorm outflow pushes it quickly it will pass faster and less time in the warm sector for training before the impulse arrives. A slower movement will expand heavier rain to the west and southwest. A lot of timing issues to be resolved.

Regardless if the 1-3 inches does pan out it will push DFW airport above normal for the month of October. Why is that so important? Wet Octobers equates to wet and snowy winters just as average temps for the month also foretells the winter temps.

[Ntxw]

Well, the biggest acorns I have seen on my backyard oaks are all over my yard. And the trees around the Metroplex are starting to show some autumn color. A bit earlier than normal if memory serves me right. Pretty yellow, brown, and oranges dotting the landscape. Some trees are losing their leaves at a good clip already. One thing is missing. C O L D. Portastorm, Ntwx, when are we getting some cold around here? Give us some good news!!!!

Could be awhile. All the signals point to mild start to November, after the rain this week we may not see good rains again for a couple of weeks. +AO/NAO neutral EPO and negative PNA says no cold. Wild card is Raymond.

[Portastorm]

Well, the biggest acorns I have seen on my backyard oaks are all over my yard. And the trees around the Metroplex are starting to show some autumn color. A bit earlier than normal if memory serves me right. Pretty yellow, brown, and oranges dotting the landscape. Some trees are losing their leaves at a good clip already. One thing is missing. C O L D. Portastorm, Ntwx, when are we getting some cold around here? Give us some good news!!!!

Could be awhile. All the signals point to mild start to November, after the rain this week we may not see good rains again for a couple of weeks. +AO/NAO neutral EPO and negative PNA says no cold. Wild card is Raymond.

I concur with Ntxw. I don't see anything unseasonably cold coming between now and mid November. There are some hints/suggestions out there that the pattern will change again as we near the end of the month, closer to Thanksgiving.

[gboudx]

For me, the perfect Thanksgiving Day weather is cloudy with temps in the upper 40's-low 50's. Good cooking, eating, football watching and sleeping weather.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well, the biggest acorns I have seen on my backyard oaks are all over my yard. And the trees around the Metroplex are starting to show some autumn color. A bit earlier than normal if memory serves me right. Pretty yellow, brown, and oranges dotting the landscape. Some trees are losing their leaves at a good clip already. One thing is missing. C O L D. Portastorm, Ntwx, when are we getting some cold around here? Give us some good news!!!!

Could be awhile. All the signals point to mild start to November, after the rain this week we may not see good rains again for a couple of weeks. +AO/NAO neutral EPO and negative PNA says no cold. Wild card is Raymond.

I concur with Ntxw. I don't see anything unseasonably cold coming between now and mid November. There are some hints/suggestions out there that the pattern will change again as we near the end of the month, closer to Thanksgiving.

This could be good if you believe in the 6 week cycle of patterns. (6 weeks mild, 6 weeks chilly) If this theory holds any water, we will be getting chilly right when it matters

[somethingfunny]

When did MAF and SJT start using complete sentences with a full range of punctuation AND LOWERCASE LETTERS? I'm actually so accustomed to reading ALL CAPS SHORTHAND that I'm having trouble reading these AFDs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013/

SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Wednesday)

Rain chances for West Central Texas look promising for the next 24
hours. The GFS is more aggressive than the NAM in generating QPF;
the NAM QPF continues to be especially spotty for tonight. However,
mass divergence aloft does look somewhat better on both models this
run. So, I`m going to continue the best rain chances for the Big
Country and for mainly after midnight. For tomorrow, a surface
trough just to our west, across the Trans-Pecos Region and Permian
Basin, will help with low-level convergence. Plus, the GFS and NAM
forecast soundings indicate precipitable water values around 1.4
inches from 06z tonight into tomorrow morning. Although the severe
threat is low, I think we might have a few severe thunderstorms,
mainly after midnight tonight and tomorrow. If so, large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threats. Also, some thunderstorms
may produce heavy rainfall.

Huber

LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

An unsettled pattern will continue through the extended forecast.
Precipitation chances will continue across much of the area on
Wednesday night before a Pacific front moves through, resulting in
an intrusion of drier air. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible ahead of the front, with a better chance as the front
moves through the area. The 3km Texas Tech WRF is developing
convection along the front, mainly along and east of Sweetwater, to
San Angelo, to Sonora line. I have indicated the best PoPs along and
east of here, with slight chance across the western counties. Modest
instability and 0-6 KM bulk shear values of 40 to 55 knots could
yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Although a few severe
storms will be possible, I think the bigger threat will be locally
heavy rainfall.

[TexasF6]

S2K IS BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hallelujah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! There was this flood? It was crazy??? Just glad the site is up again!!!

[dhweather]

S2K IS BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hallelujah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! There was this flood? It was crazy??? Just glad the site is up again!!!

No kidding.

[gboudx]

I can now unclench from the fetal position and walk-off the shakes. Welcome back S2k!

[ravyrn]

Picked up about 5" in Maydelle, TX. Tons of branches and a good bit of trees down from this week's rain and storms. Really dreading the first front that comes through the area with an actual squall line and some heavy winds in front of it -- there'll be so many trees down.

[gpsnowman]

Holy Cow! Never leave again Storm2K. Back to weather.

[Ntxw]

Ah yes, the show has returned! Never realize how much we are dependent until it's gone!

Still don't see any real significant cold air push the next 2 weeks but the subtropical jet remains active. Another rain event mid week for somebody? We sha'll see. At least the EPO isn't going too positive or we would torch with the +AO, just seasonable to slightly mild. As Portastorm has foretold, there are signs of another tank by the Pacific mid to late November. With a semi SE ridge forming and deep trough in the west it's possible we may be tracking some kind of cut off low in a few weeks. Warming of the western ENSO region is a good thing heading into the heart of winter. We don't necessarily need a Nino, just need the SST's config to improve.

[horselattitudesfarm]

I sure hope the forecasts for the rain event this week are better than those of our last (non) rain event. I have never seen such strange weather behavior as we had last week. The way the storms set up in such a narrow intense band south of us eventhough we had PW values well over 2+ inches here. All we got was damp blustery wind blowing slimey-wet leaves around all day Wednesday. The mixing down of winds and the atmosphere all felt like what you get after a long period of heavy rains......only without the rain!
Even Bob Rose and other forecasters were left scratching their heads on how this all happened: As per Bob Rose:

"A look back at Wednesday’s Night’s Heavy Rain Event across Central Texas: A fairly narrow band of rain and thunderstorms set up along the Interstate 35 corridor Wednesday evening and persisted until daybreak on Thursday. The mechanics on why this band of storms set up and why it set up over that particular area are not well understood at this time. Numerous showers and thunderstorms trained across the Balcones Escarpment, from just north of San Antonio to east of Temple for nearly 10 hours. With a very moist, tropical air mass in place , rainfall rates at times were extremely heavy; nearly 4 inches per hour. A cold front moving out of West Texas finally caused the rain to decrease and move off to the east."

I do remember reading some AFD's about this how a couple of the models were showing dry subsiding air (dry-slotting) but the forecasters couldn't figure out how such a big 'wet' low with so much bouyancy and tropical pacific moisture would have much subsidence. It turns out thats ALL we got, with no rain whatsoever. I wanted to get on here and discuss it and ask questions, but couldn't, obviously. Again, it looks like most of the rain missed the highland lakes chain.

[Ntxw]

Definitely a good study to look into. There was a warm front that formed and basically stalled over that area at the same time there was remnants of Raymond that crossed over. I wonder if some mesoscale feature associated with that may have played a role. Often times on the wrong side (NW or W) of these tropical entities you get subsidence and on the east side it just floods.

TD18 in the EPAC is going to act like an enhancement as well for the lucky ones.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Looks like a setup similar to last weeks with TS Sonia's moisture this time. Lets hope the bands of rain set up more in NTX and go back into the higher areas of the hill country.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Geez! Doesn't this look familiar?! Again, the storm train sets up just south of the DFW area. WOW. Its like Groundhog Day! But I'll just call it Deja Vu for now.

[gboudx]

Yeah, I was a bit amused seeing the radar this morning since it's just par for the course. But with 2 more days of rain expected, hopefully our luck changes.

[gpsnowman]

Is anyone else having trouble trying to get on Larry Cosgroves articles and his winter outlook? For months now every time I try I get an article dating from last March. Nothing current. Very strange. Google does not want to cooperate. Maybe I am just dumb