Texas Fall 2022

[Ntxw]

How's SOI look? I want to believe those WPC totals for my area, but I've been burned too many times this year. Probably wise to cut those totals in half.

We desperately need some form of precip soon. SAT is running nearly 20 inches below average...

https://www.weather.gov/images/ewx/products/climate/climate_KSAT_2022.png

SOI positive streak continues, 30 day as high as it's been. I'm not trusting any long range qpf. If early month forecast verified we'd be in a wetter pattern now mid month. 0.00" at DFW.

The coming trof/front will swing through some rain activity but nothing near what the models were forecasting for it some time ago.

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro looks promising

[Cpv17]

12z Euro looks promising

Promising for what? I don’t see it showing much rain. 1-2” maybe. That’s what we need is rain. I picked up 1.50” today!

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro looks promising

Promising for what? I don’t see it showing much rain. 1-2” maybe. That’s what we need is rain. I picked up 1.50” today!

Large 1-2 inch swath for Oklahoma and Texas.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro looks promising

Promising for what? I don’t see it showing much rain. 1-2” maybe. That’s what we need is rain. I picked up 1.50” today!

Large 1-2 inch swath for Oklahoma and Texas.

I’ll take it but that’s basically average for October. I want more lol being greedy

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS, which tends to have a bit of a warm bias, bottoms out DFW at 44F next week

I tend to agree; winter is on the way; I found plenty of it up in New Mexico this week.

[Brent]

The TWC app has me down to 33 next week

Winter is definitely coming

[Iceresistance]

The TWC app has me down to 33 next week :eek:

Winter is definitely coming

Lowest temperature I can find for my area is 36°F on KFOR, KWTV, and NWS-Norman. (KOCO 5's lowest is 38°F and FOX 25's lowest is just 40°F)
NWS-Tulsa has you down to 35°F next Tuesday, News on 6 (KOTV) is at 34°F. KJRH (Tulsa Channel 2 from NBC) is down to 30°F, and Fox 23 shows the lowest temperature at 37°F

[cstrunk]

Looking forward to the cool temperatures next week. Unfortunately, it looks like the Sunday/Monday rain event QPF is decreasing for my area. Might be lucky if I end up with 0.25" total. But I would take anything at this point. The good news is the rest of Texas hopefully can at least get 0.5"-1" or more.

[weatherdude1108]

Yeah, rain forecasts have trended down (again) for this area. We'll be lucky to get a few sprinkles at this rate (shocker). But lows in the 40s/50s next week will be nice.

[Iceresistance]

Yeah, rain forecasts have trended down (again) for this area. We'll be lucky to get a few sprinkles at this rate (shocker). But lows in the 40s/50s next week will be nice.

Stupid Cockroach Death Ridge! It always leaves behind a LOT of dry air to wipe out the QPF totals!

[Edwards Limestone]

Until we get a major pattern change in the Pacific, more of the same I guess...

Could we be heading toward a 4th year Nina?
Next summer is going to be very dicey around here if so.

[Iceresistance]

Until we get a major pattern change in the Pacific, more of the same I guess...

Could we be heading toward a 4th year Nina?
Next summer is going to be very dicey around here if so.

Every La Nina is different, a 4th year Nina is difficult to analog due to the rarity of them.

The 2nd Year Nina was being too nice to Texas, a weird summer for 2021, even for Nina Standards.

And either way, I don't like the Pacific SST anomalies at all.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/I-dont-like-this.png

[weatherdude1108]

Until we get a major pattern change in the Pacific, more of the same I guess...

Could we be heading toward a 4th year Nina?
Next summer is going to be very dicey around here if so.

Every La Nina is different, a 4th year Nina is difficult to analog due to the rarity of them.

The 2nd Year Nina was being too nice to Texas, a weird summer for 2021, even for Nina Standards.

And either way, I don't like the Pacific SST anomalies at all.
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/I-dont-like-this.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/I-dont-like-this.png

The trend is not our friend.

[Ntxw]

It's cumulative. 2015-2020 despite whatever ENSO was very wet times. 2016 and 2017 Ninas and even 2020 still provided copious rains. We've entered a different Pacific mode since 2021 and are riding a stretch of overall dry regime. PDO is decadal shift, meaning year to year has variables but overall longterm stretch favors a set of outcomes.

What this may mean is that even if an El Nino comes, we may see a few months to a year of improvement but it may revert. Ninos in colder PDO regimes are not as prolific as warm PDO ones for rain. We cycle through these stretches often, 2000-2005 wetter, 2006-2014 dry, 2015-2020 wetter, 2021-? Dry.

[Iceresistance]

It's cumulative. 2015-2020 despite whatever ENSO was very wet times. 2016 and 2017 Ninas and even 2020 still provided copious rains. We've entered a different Pacific mode since 2021 and are riding a stretch of overall dry regime. PDO is decadal shift, meaning year to year has variables but overall longterm stretch favors a set of outcomes.

What this may mean is that even if an El Nino comes, we may see a few months to a year of improvement but it may revert. Ninos in colder PDO regimes are not as prolific as warm PDO ones for rain. We cycle through these stretches often, 2000-2005 wetter, 2006-2014 dry, 2015-2020 wetter, 2021-? Dry.

Hopefully, this dry stretch is short, someone on the ENSO updates suggested that the colder waters north of Hawaii is a good step towards a +PDO, but the waters near Japan must cool down for a +PDO to take effect.

[weatherdude1108]

It's cumulative. 2015-2020 despite whatever ENSO was very wet times. 2016 and 2017 Ninas and even 2020 still provided copious rains. We've entered a different Pacific mode since 2021 and are riding a stretch of overall dry regime. PDO is decadal shift, meaning year to year has variables but overall longterm stretch favors a set of outcomes.

What this may mean is that even if an El Nino comes, we may see a few months to a year of improvement but it may revert. Ninos in colder PDO regimes are not as prolific as warm PDO ones for rain. We cycle through these stretches often, 2000-2005 wetter, 2006-2014 dry, 2015-2020 wetter, 2021-? Dry.

Thanks for those stats! After the 2006-2014 dry stretch, I noticed some of the lakes in west-central Texas never fully recovered, even with the 2015-2020 wetter stretch. Most did recover, especially up in central and north Texas.

Medina Lake west of SA was almost fully a couple years or so back. Now it is in in sad shape. This will force people to conserve what they have.

[South Texas Storms]

While it's unfortunate and not surprising to see the forecast rainfall totals drop as we get closer to the event, I'm still hopeful much of the state can pick up 0.50-1.00 inch.

The temperatures behind the front next week look awesome. I can't wait for our first taste of cool fall air.

[ElectricStorm]

Marginal risk up for me tomorrow. Hopefully we can get some decent storms this time

[weatherdude1108]

While it's unfortunate and not surprising to see the forecast rainfall totals drop as we get closer to the event, I'm still hopeful much of the state can pick up 0.50-1.00 inch.

The temperatures behind the front next week look awesome. I can't wait for our first taste of cool fall air.

Sorry, didn't mean to be a buzzkill. I've just gotten my hopes up multiple times with these forecasts a few days out, then they "dry up" (pun intended). Then it makes me question any forecast QPF.

Makes it hard to know if you should water or not.lol That said, ANY measureable rain/cool temps is a good thing! In any case, I water (as needed) per usual regardless of the forecast (based on recent history), that way whatever falls gets supplemented.