Texas Summer 2024

[mmmmsnouts]

Shear going to work on Beryl to get the intensity down. As long as the remnants keep moving after landfall this could end up being rather beneficial.

[txtwister78]

Latest NHC advisory has shifted the landfall track a little north once again putting the southern Texas coast at risk.

[South Texas Storms]

Latest NHC advisory has shifted the landfall track a little north once again putting the southern Texas coast at risk.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/174432_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

It sure would be nice if that track verified. Would spread a large area of beneficial rainfall to areas still in severe drought. Would like to see the northward trends in the track stop before most of the rain misses the Hill Country to the east.

[Ntxw]

This is almost as good as it can get in July. Trof will leave a frontal boundary which in itself will provide plenty of focus for daily showers. Beryl is a bonus injecting tropical moisture boosting qpf along and south of the boundary. Hopefully not too strong of a system once it approaches the gulf but sprawling enough to help everyone!

[Cpv17]

Latest NHC advisory has shifted the landfall track a little north once again putting the southern Texas coast at risk.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/174432_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

It sure would be nice if that track verified. Would spread a large area of beneficial rainfall to areas still in severe drought. Would like to see the northward trends in the track stop before most of the rain misses the Hill Country to the east.

It’ll be a bit to the right of that track, but overall, it’ll verify.

[bubba hotep]

Oh, hello

[snownado]

DFW snagged a late day intra-hour high of 100*F today (6th this season), which will seemingly be the last one for a while...

[txtwister78]

Oh, hello

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2024070412/240/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Hopefully this verifies but my guess is we're going to see a much narrower QPF window/cutoff the further west you go all along the I-35 corridor especially the further north you go up 35 assuming this trough is as strong as some models forecast. In addition, with Beryl now back up to Cat 3 intensity will have to see how it emerges out over the gulf and whether that re-intensification prior to the Yucatan landfall ends up pushing this track further north into Texas than what the Euro ensembles/OP have thus far indicated.

GEFS and GEPS seem more aligned right now. Euro has really been off its game as of late in my opinion with this storm. 18z Euro ensembles have shifted east just as I was typing this. My guess is we may see another nudge north from NHC in terms of landfall.

[rwfromkansas]

It probably will recurve too much and leave DFW high and dry. But, that one run looks good.

[South Texas Storms]

Oh, hello

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2024070412/240/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Hopefully this verifies but my guess is we're going to see a much narrower QPF window/cutoff the further west you go all along the I-35 corridor especially the further north you go up 35 assuming this trough is as strong as some models forecast. In addition, with Beryl now back up to Cat 3 intensity will have to see how it emerges out over the gulf and whether that re-intensification prior to the Yucatan landfall ends up pushing this track further north into Texas than what the Euro ensembles/OP have thus far indicated.

GEFS and GEPS seem more aligned right now. Euro has really been off its game as of late in my opinion with this storm. 18z Euro ensembles have shifted east just as I was typing this. My guess is we may see another nudge north from NHC in terms of landfall.

Like I've been fearing the past few days, I bet the IH-35 corridor misses out with the final track being just east of there. Hope I'm wrong but the 0z guidance making a big jump north just makes me feel like it's even more likely to happen now.

[txtwister78]

"King" Euro definitely not representing thus far as it relates to the tropics at least.

12z Run vs the latest 0z run. Ouch. Keep in mind it had this storm buried into Mexico on previous runs as well. GFS has definitely been the more consistent/reliable of the two.

[Brent]

Texas might get a full fledged hurricane with these trends this morning. Nearly every model is further north than the NHC. I would expect a hurricane watch soon too

[Portastorm]

Latest NHC advisory has shifted the landfall track a little north once again putting the southern Texas coast at risk.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/174432_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

It sure would be nice if that track verified. Would spread a large area of beneficial rainfall to areas still in severe drought. Would like to see the northward trends in the track stop before most of the rain misses the Hill Country to the east.

I saw this yesterday STS and thought you might be right. Knowing our rainfall luck, the projected landfall will keep moving up the coast and we’ll be eating the nada enchiladas.

Beryl ain’t much at the moment but what will she do in the open Gulf waters? That’s a big concern.

[rwfromkansas]

Looks increasingly likely drought areas further west will get nothing, as well as DFW.

I don’t think one ATL hurricane has really given me rain since moving here in 2014.

That said, risks of a bigger hit are WAY increasing.

[Shoshana]

I was really hoping Beryl was going to bring much needed rain to the areas west of San Antonio and Austin… as usual for GoM storms we’ll just have to keep watching the updates and see how strong it is when it leaves the Yucatán

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The rain will be fantastic for Texas, i'm concerned about the strength once it pop into the BoC again. I dont think it will remain a TS like models are saying.

[Portastorm]

I was really hoping Beryl was going to bring much needed rain to the areas west of San Antonio and Austin… as usual for GoM storms we’ll just have to keep watching the updates and see how strong it is when it leaves the Yucatán

As of the 10 am update from NHC, the track is now east of Austin and San Antonio. But there could be more changes ... and the trend is further and further east. Not in our favor.

[Ntxw]

Rain blob popped up over the airport, close to 0.20" in a quick minute.

[txtwister78]

Who would have thought we'd be here talking about a deep Midwest trough pushing out a SE ridge in July of all things and as a result robbing us potentially of another big rainfall opportunity. Definitely not on my bingo card for the summer. Having said that, hopefully we can get a little rain with this boundary over the weekend.

[Brent]

The rain will be fantastic for Texas, i'm concerned about the strength once it pop into the BoC again. I dont think it will remain a TS like models are saying.

I dunno why I'm having Harvey flashbacks but I am...

Hopefully the fact it's early July will help keep it from getting too out of control again