MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1991
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN SD...FAR SCENTRAL/SERN ND AND
WCENTRAL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 161837Z - 162030Z



AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH CONVECTION ONGOING AND/OR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WW.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR
MOBRIDGE SD EWD TO NEAR ALEXANDRIA MN. BASED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING AT
ABR/BIS FOR 18Z CONDITIONS OVER NRN SD/SRN SD HAVE BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG WITH LESS THAN 25 J/KG
OF MLCINH. THE AIRMASS FURTHER EAST OVER WCENTRAL MN WAS SLIGHTLY
MORE UNSTABLE...WITH DEWPTS AROUND 70 AND MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF CENTRAL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 6
DEG C/KM THAT WAS PRESENT ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...RECENT
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT TSTMS WERE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AND
BECOME STG OVER NCENTRAL/NERN SD. THUS...THESE LAPSE RATES MAY NOT
BE WEAK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT
GIVEN THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 40 KTS PER VWP DATA/ IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 08/16/2005

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1993
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AZ...ERN UT AND WRN CO/FAR NWRN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 161933Z - 162130Z



TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA MAY POSE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR
HAIL/DMGG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR
GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

SFC DESTABILIZATION HAS AIDED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY...MLCAPES
AROUND 1500 J/KG...FROM NERN AZ NEWD INTO ECENTRAL UT/WCENTRAL
CO...WHERE DEWPTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE 55-60 DEG F RANGE DESPITE
STRONG INSOLATION/MIXING. A 50-60 KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX OVER ERN
UT/NERN AZ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NV. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE
EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR/STORM TOP VENTING WILL SUPPORT MULTI-CELL
ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTION AS IT STRENGTHENS/INITIATES ALONG
FAVORED OROGRAPHIC CONVERGENCE ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID
LVL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR HAIL.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1994
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WV / WRN AND SWRN VA / PARTS OF NWRN-NRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 723...

VALID 162102Z - 162200Z



PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SRN WV...
WRN AND SWRN VA AND IN PARTS OF NWRN TO NRN NC.

AT 2045Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE
LOCATED ACROSS NRN TO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 723. A BOWING LINE OF
STORMS EXTENDED FROM 25 N BKW TO 5 N BLF TO 40 WNW TRI...WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS EXTENDING ALONG AND IN LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM NRN VA TO NWRN NC. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE VALID PART OF THIS WW...WITH THE STRONGEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES EXTENDING FROM NRN KY TO NRN VA. ALTHOUGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TENDS TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...ANY ELY COMPONENT
TO THE SURFACE WINDS WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE SRN PART
OF WW 723 TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. THUS...CAPE/SHEAR VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS TRACK EWD THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1995
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NERN WY AND NWRN SD/SWRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 162104Z - 162300Z



ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 00Z OVER ERN
MT. ADDITIONAL MARGINALLY SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NERN
WY...WITH A MUCH LESSER THREAT OF SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ALONG A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NWRN SD/SWRN ND. AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BEFORE 00Z.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR BIL. SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN SUSTAINING DEEP CONVERGENCE ALONG A LEE
TROUGH STRETCHING N-S ACROSS ERN MT INTO ERN WY. ISOLATED CONVECTION
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEE TROUGH OVER NERN WY WHERE
STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING WAS SPREADING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SRN WY. GIVEN TOWERING CU OVER SERN MT...AND MDT CU
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NERN MT...TSTM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS LIKELY BY 00Z. DESPITE MODEST SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS FROM
20-30 KTS AS PER BBW PROFILER...MODERATE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR OVER ERN MT. COMBINED
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG/...THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS. IN
ADDITION...30-35 DEG F DEWPT DEPRESSIONS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DMGG
WIND GUSTS.

FURTHER SOUTH...LESSER DEEP LAYER SHEAR DUE TO MORE SLY COMPONENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER ERN WY WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
SVR THREAT. WEAKER NEAR SFC CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVER NWRN SD/SWRN ND SHOULD PRECLUDE SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA THROUGH 00Z.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1997
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0548 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/WRN UT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 725...
   
   VALID 162248Z - 170045Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
   HALF OF WW 725 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER CENTRAL
   UT. THIS WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE/SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   AXIS MOVING ACROSS WRN UT. KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS IN
   THIS LINE GIVEN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPES AROUND 1000
   J/KG/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR
   STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
   FAR NWRN PORTION OF WW 725 TO THE WEST OF SLC /CLOSER TO THE MID
   LEVEL LOW CENTER/...AS WELL AS EAST OF WW 725 OVER ECENTRAL UT.
   SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT
   ADDITIONAL STG-SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SCENTRAL/SWRN UT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 08/16/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...
   
   40631067 40831209 40991344 40681396 40091362 39891313
   39471261 38501246 37901270 37621256 37591207 38031083
   39071000 40181007

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1998
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0614 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MN
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 162314Z - 170015Z
   
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS NEAR/NORTH OF THE ST. CLOUD
   AND MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL AREAS.  ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...
   WHICH HAS DEVELOPED IN WAKE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
   WELL EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PARCELS LIKELY EMANATING
   FROM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT ARE
   REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.
    THIS LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT IN FAVORABLY
   SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BENEATH 30+ KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
   ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. BEYOND 01-02Z...ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO
   DIMINISH RAPIDLY AS INFLUENCE OF LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES
   ...AND BETTER WARM ADVECTION REGIME SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT
   LAKES.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/16/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...ABR...
   
   46499645 46809514 46589329 45839230 44709176 44389261
   44919410 45379528 45509629

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1999
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0657 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...NRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 723...724...
   
   VALID 162357Z - 170130Z
   
   STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT SEVERE THREAT
   APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...AND REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS WILL
   BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THEIR RESPECTIVE EXPIRATIONS TIMES.
   
   LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING IS ALREADY UNDERWAY
   ALONG/SOUTH OF EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
   CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.  THOUGH STILL AROUND
   90F...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW WELL OFF DAYTIME MAXIMA...AND
   SLOW COOLING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.  ASSOCIATED STABILIZATION
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING OF CONVECTION...AND SEVERE THREAT SEEMS
   LIKELY TO DIMINISH SHORTLY.
     
   FORCING/INSTABILITY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   EVENING...HOWEVER.  PRIMARY CLUSTER EAST OF SURFACE LOW WILL
   GRADUALLY DEVELOP WEST OF NORFOLK INTO AREAS WEST/SOUTH OF ELIZABETH
   CITY.  BUT...FRONTAL ZONE WESTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN NORTH
   CAROLINA COULD ALSO REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ON
   SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/16/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
   
   36168166 36478021 36747926 37337861 37507665 36647581
   35847603 35527699 35817762 35917851 35717994 35528308

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2004
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN SC...ERN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 171712Z - 171915Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY 19Z OVER CENTRAL/ERN SC AHEAD OF
   A SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP INTO A SMALL
   CLUSTER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN DMGG WIND THREAT
   POSSIBLE INTO ERN GA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR A
   POSSIBLE OUTLOOK UPGRADE AND WW.
   
   VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS SC...WITH MLCAPES
   FROM 2500-3000 J/KG. AT MID LEVELS...DRY AIR WAS EVIDENT PER WV
   IMAGERY OVER SRN SC INTO ERN/SRN GA. INCIPIENT TSTMS DEVELOPING
   ALONG A THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   FROM NW OF CAE TO MYR WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...AS THEY MOVE SWD AROUND 10-15 KTS. DESPITE WEAK AMBIENT
   VERTICAL SHEAR...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMBIENT MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL FAVOR ISOLATED
   WET MICROBURSTS. GIVEN A FOCUSING MECHANISM WITH THE FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY
   DEVELOP BY THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO SRN SC AND
   EVENTUALLY ERN GA. IF THIS BECOMES APPARENT BEFORE THEN...AREA MAY
   NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK AND WW ISSUANCE WOULD BE
   CONSIDERED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 08/17/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...
   
   33867868 34237943 34378028 34378191 33738289 31938258
   31438194 31358122 32028087 32867978 33167916

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/NCENTRAL OK...SWRN/SCENTRAL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 172024Z - 172230Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY 22Z ACROSS FAR NWRN OK/SWRN KS.
   AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MDT-TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ALONG A
   CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM PAWNEE AND BARTON COUNTIES OF SWRN KS
   SWD INTO WOODS/ALFALFA COUNTIES IN NWRN OK. A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH
   EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF DDC INTO THE NERN TX PANHANDLE. WV
   IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MOVING NEWD
   TOWARDS THE REGION OUT OF SRN CO/NM. ONE OF THESE IS LIKELY THE
   SOURCE OF EARLY INITIATION OF AN ISOLATED TSTM IN THE NRN PANHANDLE.
   THESE MID LEVEL FEATURES COMBINED WITH FOCUSED LOW LEVEL LIFT ALONG
   SEVERAL SFC TROUGHS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE NEXT
   1-2 HRS AS MINIMAL /LESS THAN 25 J/KG/ MLCINH REMAINS. DESPITE
   MODEST WLY MID LEVEL WINDS /30 KTS PER GDA PROFILER/...LOW LEVEL
   SSELY WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER NCENTRAL
   OK/SCENTRAL KS WILL AID IN AROUND 35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR STORMS AND POSSIBLY
   SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS. DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM MID-TROPOSPHERIC
   TEMPERATURES  /- 6 TO -8 DEG C AT 500 MB/ AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 70-74 DEG F RANGE SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS WITH 2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUS A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
   AND DMGG WINDS IS LIKELY TO EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS THAT
   DO DEVELOP. ENOUGH UNCERTAINLY STILL EXISTS ON THE COVERAGE OF
   SEVERE TSTMS GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING THAT WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT CERTAIN.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 08/17/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
   
   38219749 38629816 38819863 38549936 38249942 37649976
   36870007 36219984 36249951 36309848 36419744 36719672
   37629678

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2009
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...EXTREME NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 172045Z - 172245Z
   
   AN ISOLATED LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS A SMALL PART OF
   EXTREME NERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS CELL. HOWEVER...IF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
   CAN INITIATE EITHER AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORM...OR ALONG THE
   OUTFLOW IN ITS WAKE...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE
   REGION.
   
   A STEADY-STATE AND LONG-TRACK CELL HAS BEEN MOVING EAST NEAR THE
   KS/NEB BORDER ALMOST ALL DAY. EARLIER INDICATIONS WERE THAT THIS
   STORM WOULD MOVE AWAY FROM MORE FAVORABLE STORM INFLOW AND
   INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS DEPICTING
   CLEARING AHEAD OF THE STORM AND THIS HAS ALLOWED AIR MASS ACROSS
   NERN KS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. STORM APPEARS TO BE CYCLING
   THROUGH INTENSITY CHANGES BUT WAS MAINTAINING SUPERCELL
   CHARACTERISTICS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAP VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR
   AS IT NEARS THE MO RIVER VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE
   THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS ACTIVITY. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
   WEAK...LFC BELOW 1KM AND VEERED LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALSO SUGGEST
   A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 08/17/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...
   
   39759482 39539487 39379499 39459557 39689622 40059606
   40049566

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0518 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL AND NERN SD / S CENTRAL AND SERN SD / W
   CENTRAL AND NWRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 727...
   
   VALID 172218Z - 180015Z
   
   STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WW.
   
   STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST NE OF SURFACE LOW/INVOF WARM FRONT
   ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SERN ND...AND SWD ALONG TROUGH/DRYLINE INTO N
   CENTRAL/NERN SD -- INTO NEWLY-ISSUED WW 728.  AIRMASS REMAINS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
   MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED.  THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT
   WEAK...FAVORABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
   SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
   THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL.
   
   ..GOSS.. 08/17/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   46210166 47509858 47819715 47689499 46849442 45219883
   44390184

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0116 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN IL...NWRN INDIANA...SRN
   LM...SERN LOWER PENINSULA OF MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 729...
   
   VALID 181816Z - 181945Z
   
   MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD APPROXIMATELY 25-30 KT ACROSS NERN IL
   AND SRN LM.  MEANWHILE TSTMS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS
   AREA BETWEEN RFD-VYS...IN ZONE OF ELEVATED WAA...ATOP COLD POOL FROM
   MCS.  LATTER ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS BUT IS NOT
   EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BECAUSE OF LIMITED
   SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. 
   
   IF PRESENT CONVECTIVE WEAKENING TRENDS CONTINUE AND EXTEND SWD INTO
   MORE OF WARM SECTOR...WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 20Z
   EXPIRATION.  IN ANY EVENT...AIR MASS FARTHER E ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN
   LOWER MI AND NRN INDIANA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH INCREASING
   HEATING AND NWD LIFT OF WARM FRONT AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE
   POTENTIAL E OF WW. 729.  MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND 35-50 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEARS ARE EVIDENT ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT OVER NRN
   INDIANA...INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR REVERSAL OF WEAKENING TRENDS
   AND REINVIGORATION OF SEVERE THREAT AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS FARTHER E.
   
   BACK W...CONVECTION HAS EFFECTIVELY REINFORCED/RELOCATED FRONTAL
   ZONE FARTHER SWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL IL...WHICH MAY SERVE AS A PRIMARY
   FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT/MOTION.  ANOTHER MESOSCALE
   DISCUSSION REGARDING THAT LATER SCENARIO...EXTENDING WWD INTO
   IA...WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AFTER SOME MORE
   EXAMINATION.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/18/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
   
   40288677 40308757 40478855 41118919 41658919 41768880
   41668725 41918640 42238577 42428472 41548478 40558567

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2015
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...ERN WY AND NWRN NEB PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 181905Z - 182100Z
   
   TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS MAY POSE AN ISOLATED SVR
   THREAT IN THE NEXT HR OR SO. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP EITHER ALONG STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W
   ACROSS NERN/ECENTRAL WY INTO WCENTRAL SD AND/OR MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL
   WY WHILE INTENSIFYING. DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...OVERALL
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO ISOLATED
   OCCURRENCES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS WW ISSUANCE REMAINS
   UNCERTAIN ATTM.
   
   LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
   BLACK HILLS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINS NNWLY...MODERATE
   UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL AIRMASS
   DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT/
   INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION OVER THE NRN BLACK HILLS AREA DURING
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT CAPPED EAST OF THE
   BLACK HILLS /LOWER ELEVATIONS/...WITH OVER 100 J/KG OF MLCINH PER
   RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THUS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
   MOVE OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 21Z.  WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR AND 1000-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE /PER RECENT FCST SOUNDINGS
   AND MBW PROFILER DATA/ ISOLATED SVR HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGEST STORMS. FARTHER WEST...BASED ON RAWS/ASOS REPORTS...THE
   SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM NRN NATRONA COUNTY
   WY ESEWD TO DAWES COUNTY IN THE NEB PANHANDLE. SUFFICIENT
   CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL HEATING/MINIMAL CINH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
   SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW
   HRS. IN ADDITION...HIGH BASED CONVECTION THAT IS OCCURRING TO THE
   WEST OF THE LARAMIE MTNS MAY INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BETTER
   INSTABILITY OVER ERN WY INTO THE FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE BY MID
   AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS IN ERN WY/NWRN NEB PANHANDLE BASED ON
   CURRENT DEWPT FIELDS INDICATE AROUND 1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE SHOULD
   EXIST BY 21Z. WITH AROUND 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE
   ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED SVR HAIL THREAT AS
   WELL.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 08/18/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
   
   44870264 44720476 44590609 44390682 43690699 42680651
   42080540 41720423 41900328 42380269 43650181

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2016
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0209 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL IA...NWRN
   IL...SWRN/S-CENTRAL WI...EXTREME SERN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 181909Z - 182045Z
   
   WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THIS REGION...WITH SEVERE
   POTENTIAL INCREASING OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.  DAMAGING
   GUSTS...TORNADOES AND OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WELL-DEFINED LOW OVER SERN MN -- N RST AS OF
   19Z -- FCST TO MOVE EWD INTO SWRN/S-CENTRAL WI THROUGH REMAINDER
   AFTERNOON.  WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM LOW ACROSS SWRN WI INTO
   OUTFLOW POOL LEFT BY MORNING MCS.  WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
   NWD AND WRN PORTION OF OLD OUTFLOW POOL WILL FAVORABLY MODIFY. 80S
   SFC TEMPS AND 70S DEW POINTS -- EVIDENT IN WARM SECTOR ALONG AND S
   OF WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND
   2000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS.  LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN MAXIMIZED INVOF WARM FRONT...WHERE BACKED SFC
   WINDS CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF
   150-250 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM AGL LAYER.  THOSE VALUES -- DERIVED FROM
   OBSERVED REGIONAL VWP DATA...ARE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN INDICATED
   BY SHORT TERM RUC ANALYSES AND FCSTS...AND SUPPORT SUPERCELL/TORNADO
   THREAT PARTICULARLY NEAR WARM FRONT.
   
   FARTHER S...ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED VEERING OF SFC FLOW OVER MUCH OF
   IA SHOULD SHIFT EWD INTO IL THIS AFTERNOON S OF OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY...LIMITING CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...HOWEVER SEVERE
   GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONE OVER SERN MN...0-1
   KM SRH APPEARS SMALL BECAUSE OF WEAKER FLOW...HOWEVER VERY LOCALIZED
   AREA OF JUXTAPOSITION EXISTS BETWEEN FAVORABLE SFC VORTICITY MAX AND
   LOW LEVEL CAPE FIELD.  POSSIBILITY OF NONSUPERCELL TORNADOES CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT AS THAT REGIME SHIFTS EWD ACROSS REMAINDER EXTREME SERN
   MN AND LSE REGION INTO SWRN WI.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/18/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
   
   41189032 41939139 42939212 43919236 44279184 44479098
   44469000 44378957 44098911 43708862 43128861 42498873
   41408896 41098934

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL SD...FAR SCENTRAL/SERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 182027Z - 182230Z



ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BY 23Z ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY OF
CENTRAL SD NWD INTO FAR SCENTRAL ND. AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING CU DEVELOPING OVER FAR
SCENTRAL ND/NCENTRAL SD ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH AND
OCCLUDED LOW CENTER INTERSECTION. AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY AND TO THE
SOUTH/EAST OF THIS AREA HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MLCINH LESS THAN 25 J/KG. GIVEN SEVERAL MORE
HOURS OF HEATING AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY OF CENTRAL
SD/SCENTRAL ND BY 23Z. AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA. THUS THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED THROUGH
THAT TIME AND THUS WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE
HRS. AFTER 00Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT
GREATER ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL AND THUS AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY...NERN OH...WRN PA AND NRN WV PNHDL

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 191216Z - 191315Z



13Z SWODY1 WILL INCLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK BASED ON
TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NY...NERN OH...WRN PA AND THE
NRN WV PNHDL. METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS WILL BE FORTHCOMING WITH THE
13Z SWODY1 ISSUANCE.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1055 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/CENTRAL KS...SWRN THROUGH E-CENTRAL
   NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 191555Z - 191800Z
   
   GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THIS REGION MAY WARRANT WW
   WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH INITIAL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL.
   
   VIS IMAGERY AND 15Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD/QUASISTATIONARY
   BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL MO WWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NWRN
   KS...CENTERED NEAR I-70...WITH WEAK MESOLOW BETWEEN SLN-CNK.
   ELEVATED TSTM COMPLEX BUILDING ACROSS NRN KS -- OVER WRN PORTION OF
   THAT BOUNDARY -- WILL MOVE NEWD AND AFFECT KS/NEB BORDER REGION
   BETWEEN MCK-CNK THROUGH 18Z.  OTHER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF
   SFC-850 MB FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM SERN SD SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN
   NEB.  CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS FCST TO SHIFT ENEWD FROM BOTH REGIONS
   ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME MERGING
   POSSIBLE.  MAIN THREAT BEFORE ABOUT 18Z WILL BE OCCASIONAL LARGE
   HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN RATES LOCALLY 2-3 INCHES/HOUR.  THEREAFTER -- AS
   ANY CONVECTION REMAINING OVER REGION INGESTS MORE WELL-MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND BECOMES MORE SFC-BASED -- DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL.
   
   MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ROUGHLY 8 DEG C/KM MEAN
   LAPSE RATES IN 700-500 MB LAYER AND ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG
   ATTM.  PRECONVECTIVE/PREFRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS
   AND CENTRAL/SERN NEB WILL BECOME FAVORABLY UNSTABLE FOR SFC BASED
   TSTMS BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.  STRONG SFC HEATING AWAY FROM
   CLOUDS/PRECIP...70S F DEW POINTS AND 7-8 DEG C MEAN LAPSE RATES IN
   700-500 MB LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES RISING ABOVE 2000 J/KG.
   LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK FLOW...THOUGH
   DEEP-LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEARS OF 40-50 KT ARE POSSIBLE BENEATH
   MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
   
   38379868 39049978 39490029 39930091 40330065 41289897
   41729818 41779743 41539658 41029599 40569573 40039573
   39079618 38239723 38239830

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN IL...SRN INDIANA...N-CENTRAL/NERN
   KY...SRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191749Z - 191915Z
   
   POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SEVERE TSTMS FROM SERN IL ESEWD TOWARD
   ERN KY.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE IN LOW LEVELS.  COMBINATION OF
   LIGHT SFC WINDS AND 30-40 KT WNW FLOW ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER YIELDS
   ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY TSTMS THAT MAY DEVIATE SEWD
   TO SWD OFF MEAN WIND VECTOR.  ADJUSTED VWP OBSERVATIONS AND RUC FCST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-3 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG...AND ABOUT 40 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AND THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN S OF STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT
   LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STILL...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING MAY
   ERODE CAP...SUPPORTING EITHER NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR
   EVOLUTION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
   SFC-BASED TSTMS.  DESPITE MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG SFC
   HEATING AND DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES 2000-3000
   J/KG IN SOME PORTIONS OF THIS REGION.  SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
   LIMITED WITH SRN EXTENT TOWARD TN/KY BORDER BY WEAKENING FLOW AND
   WARMING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...LEADING TO DIMINISHMENT BOTH OF
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALOFT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...
   
   39168796 39618648 39648572 39748419 39438271 39038235
   38348254 37748345 37618453 37668590 38218745 38468808

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2031
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0132 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE OH/WRN PA/WRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191832Z - 192030Z
   
   MONITORING FOR INDICATIONS OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE OH/WRN
   PA/WRN NY...WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
   IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   AT 1830Z...STRONG TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS SW ONTARIO JUST WEST OF THE
   HAMILTON/TORONTO CANADA AREAS. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT TSTMS WILL
   DEVELOP/BUILD SWD ACROSS THE BORDER INTO NE OH/WRN PA/WRN NY OVER
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE/DEEPEN OVER NE
   OH/LAKE ERIE AT THIS TIME...LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH PREFRONTAL
   CONFLUENCE/WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS NW OH. ADDITIONAL
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED FURTHER EAST ALONG EFFECTIVE WARM
   FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN PA INTO WRN NY...WHERE MAX PRESSURE
   FALLS ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED.
   
   AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
   1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS AND
   MODIFIED 18Z PIT RAOB...WHILE VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BE
   ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE
   HAIL...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
   LAYER WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED TO SLY. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
   PROGRESSIVE ENLARGEMENT OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THROUGH MID/LATE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..GUYER.. 08/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   43367858 43577710 43467705 42787705 42427736 42227761
   41857869 40097898 40007916 40078094 40318222 40588238
   40838230 41648203 42337976 42827917

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2032
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0150 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS...NWRN MO...SERN
   NEB...SWRN/S-CENTRAL IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 191850Z - 192045Z
   
   POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SFC-BASED SEVERE TSTMS FROM NERN KS NEWD
   TOWARD PORTIONS S-CENTRAL IA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON -- SE OF LARGE
   MASS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP NOW OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB.  AREA IS BEING
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   LINE OF SCATTERED TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED AS OF 1830Z...GENERALLY FROM
   LEAVENWORTH COUNTY WWD TO BETWEEN CNK-RSL.  THIS IS INVOF
   DIFFUSE/QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVER NERN KS...WHERE
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL LIFT ARE MAXIMIZED AS A RESULT OF
   EARLIER/DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER.  INFLOW-LAYER TRAJECTORIES SHOULD
   EMANATE FROM BOUNDARY LAYER OVER E-CENTRAL KS THAT WILL BECOME VERY
   UNSTABLE.  MODIFIED 18Z TOP/OAX RAOBS INDICATE SFC TEMPS LOW-MID
   90S...AND DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S...COMBINE WITH 7-8 DEG C/KM
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD MLCAPES AOA 3500 J/KG IN SOME AREAS.
   RUC APPEARS TO BE UNDERESTIMATING MLCAPE BECAUSE OF EXCESSIVELY
   MIXED AND TOO-DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY N OF BOUNDARY.  BUT
   WHEN MODIFIED ACCORDINGLY...ITS FCST SOUNDINGS YIELD EVEN LARGER
   BUOYANCY APCHG 5000 J/KG.  WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
   LIMIT 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE...PER LATEST NERN KS/SERN NEB
   VWP/PROFILER DATA.  HOWEVER...STRONGER/30-40 KT FLOW ALOFT AND
   DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST RISK FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS
   AND/OR BOW ECHOES TO FORM...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL
   LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
   
   39169471 39219619 38939812 39089858 39389856 40059728
   40669582 41079434 41029326 40459247 39689270 39389323