Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

After almost two weeks without cold fronts a weak event is beggining tonight. The SNET (salvadoran met survey) mentioned the system on the 48 hours forecast issued this afternoon: http://www.snet.gob.sv/ver/meteorologia/pronostico/48+horas/

Here is the translation:

January 26: A small change will be noticed this day, a very cool dawn is expected because of a small drop in temperatures and an increase in the wind speed with winds coming from the north and northeast, the northerly winds will be present in the north and central part of the country, southerly winds are expected in the afternoon hours only in the coast. Wind speeds in the 15-30 km/h range (9-19 mph) are forecasted.

January 27: The decrease in temperatures will persist, a cold dawn is expected. It will feel warm in the afternoon and very cool at night. Northerly winds in the 15-25 km/h (9-16 mph) range will be experienced especially in the high areas of the country.

Comments about dominant systems: A weak cold front is located north of Honduras and is associated with a 1024 mb high pressure system. These systems will produce a small acceleration in northerly winds and a small decrease in temperatures especially at night.

[cycloneye]

January 2010 continues to increase its record rainfall total as the .28 that fell on Monday sends the record to 10.88 inches in the month and there are a few days left to add a little more.

http://www.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=sju

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  TODAY            0.28          1.08 2003   0.09   0.19     0.00
  MONTH TO DATE   10.88                      2.48   8.40     1.96
  SINCE DEC 1     12.71                      7.05   5.66     6.54
  SINCE JAN 1     10.88                      2.48   8.40     1.96


[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Fresh breezes will continue to mantain the temperatures normal for this time of year.Another front passage by next weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST TUE JAN 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING OUT OF NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOVER AROUND PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
SAME PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FADE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS MOISTURE IN THE BAND TO OUR
SOUTH AND PUERTO RICO ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THE BEST MOISTURE.
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE ON THE OUTER FRINGES. THIS MATCHES
WELL WITH MODEL INITIATION. HOWEVER THERE APPEAR TO BE A NUMBER OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS AS WELL AS THE CURRENT
TREND. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS THE BAND OF MOISTURE JUST TO OUR
SOUTH SLOWING AND STALLING...WHEREAS THE GFS WANTS TO MOVE THE
MOISTURE SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MUCH DRIER AIR
AT 850 MB FOLLOWS THIS BAND INTO THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAINS OVER
US AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT ACTIVE FRONTAL BAND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THE
NAM HOWEVER BRINGS IN A PATCH OF MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWS
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY AND THEN
BRINGS IN THE FRONTAL BAND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE BAND IS
STILL ORIENTED EAST NORTHEAST/WEST SOUTHWEST.

ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY THAT THE NAM BRINGS THROUGH
THE AREA MAY BE EXAGGERATED BY MEANS OF AN OVERLY AMPLIFIED
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH FROM THE EAST...THE GFS ALSO SHOWS PATCHES
OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 28/00Z. THE
SLOWNESS OF THE FRONTAL BAND TO MOVE OUT IS WELL REFLECTED AND
EXPECT THE NAM`S FORECAST TO HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THIS
PERIOD THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE RELIABLY BRINGING IN A NEW FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EARLY ON SATURDAY...AFTER THE PASSAGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WITH A MORE BELIEVABLE FRONTAL ORIENTATION
SO BELIEVE THIS IS THE MORE REASONABLE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A DRIER
FRIDAY AND THEN A RETURN TO SHOWERS PRODUCED BY AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY THE GFS BRINGS YET ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE
BAHAMAS...BUT DOES NOT PULL IT DOWN OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEFORE
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. INSTEAD IT SHOWS BUBBLES OF MOISTURE MOVING
OUT OF THE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TUESDAY. THIS HEIGHTENS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ON NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 26/22Z. VA/GAS EMISSIONS FROM MONTSERRAT NOT DISCERNIBLE
AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUDS...HOWEVER PRESENT WIND FLOW FROM THE
EAST WILL KEEP VA IF ANY WELL SOUTH OF LOCAL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...HIGHEST SWELL OF THE WEEK WILL BE PASSING THE ATLANTIC
BUOY 41043 THIS MORNING AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. BECAUSE WINDS REMAIN STRONGER IN THE PRESENCE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL HAVE COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY
BY THE END OF THE DAY TODAY. BASED ON THIS THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN PLACE AND ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO
MODIFY...CANCEL OR EXTEND IT A FEW HOURS MORE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
ALONG THE COASTLINE. SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE MAINLY AFFECTED BY
EASTERLY WINDS WHICH INCREASE A LITTLE TODAY. SEAS ALSO INCREASE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE.

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory until 4 PM AST this afternoon

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1048 AM AST TUE JAN 26 2010

...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-VIZ001-262000-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-100126T2000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
1048 AM AST TUE JAN 26 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AST THIS
AFTERNOON.

LARGE NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE
TODAY FROM AGUADA EAST TO FAJARDO...CULEBRA AND ST. THOMAS. THESE
SWELLS WILL CAUSE BREAKING WAVE ACTION THAT WILL POSE A THREAT TO
LIFE WITHIN THE SURF ZONE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THE ATLANTIC / CARIBBEAN WATERS ALONG THE NORTH / SOUTH FACING

...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL ATLANTIC /
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ALL OPEN PASSAGES...

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT
PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE
BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE
THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO
SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING
WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES
INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY
OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH EROSION
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 4:24 PM AST AT 0.8 FEET.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

Normal weather for the NE Caribbean for the rest of this week until the weekend when another weak front approaches.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
207 PM AST TUE JAN 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...PREVAILNG FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HELPED TO
LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...SHALLOW MOISTURE IN A MODERATE TO
FRESH ENE WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH VERY
MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BRING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST WED JAN 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A DRY AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANTLY THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. IN FACT...COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT SHOWED ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN NEXT 3 DAYS. PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DOMINATING THE
LOCAL AREA...PRODUCING A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN CONCERNED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO IS THE MARINE CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST BY COMPUTER MODEL TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 28/04Z. VA/GAS EMISSIONS FROM MONTSERRAT NOT
DISCERNIBLE AT THIS TIME DUE TO DARKNESS...HOWEVER PRESENT WIND FLOW
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WILL KEEP VA IF ANY WELL SOUTH OF LOCAL TAF
SITES.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST WED JAN 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BE
REINFORCED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE WEST
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
ATLANTIC BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRONTAL SHEAR LINE/BOUNDARY
AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF MOISTURE SEPARATING THE TWO HIGHS WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
THE WEST ATLANTIC BUILDS FURTHER EASTWARD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE MODERATE TO STRONG EAST NORTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW TO BRING PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THEREAFTER...EXPECT FRAGMENTS OF MOISTURE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED
FRONTAL SHEAR LINE NORTH OF THE AREA...AND THAT ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH...TO BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONALLY REACH THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE DOMINANT MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL AID IN PUSHING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE/
CLOUDINESS FURTHER INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE
EXPECT SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH APPROACH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS REGION
WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENT WILL
LIMITED SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. NO
MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE IN SIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...A VCSH OR -SHRA MAY BRING VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE VI AND TJSJ THROUGH 28/00Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AND ACROSS REMAINDER OF TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 28/16Z. VA FROM MONTSERRAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH
AND HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

[cycloneye]

Is the first time in this thread that I post model runs but I see something interesting that GFS shows in a little more than a week and a half.It has a strong cold front by the 8th of Febuary reaching Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.Of course is a long time to know if this will occur as there will be many changes in every run so lets watch the next runs to see if it continues to show it or otherwise,it has a weaker front by that time.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

Updated night discussion


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1013 PM AST WED JAN 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WHILE SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A STOUT CAP OVER THE AREA AROUND
850 MB. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE CAP TOWARD
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. OUR TWDR RADAR IS
SHOWING SOME SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE NORTH COAST AND EVEN A LONE
SHRA OVER SJU ON NORTHEAST WINDS. THE 3.9 MICRON IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU OVR ATLC WATERS SO THERE IS LIKELY
QUITE A BIT OF SHRA ACTIVITY OUT THERE. LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS PICK UP SO HAVE UPDATED
FCST TO RAISE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR TOMORROW MORNING.

USERS ARE REMINDED THAT OUR TWDR RADAR HAS LIMITED COVERAGE AND
THE RADAR CAN NOT DETECT THESE SHOWERS TOO WELL DUE TO THE VERY
SHALLOW NATURE OF THEM ESPECIALLY AT DISTANCES NOT TOO FAR AWAY
FROM THE RADAR. WE ARE HOPING TO GET THE 88D RADAR BACK IN SERVICE
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST BRIEF PASSING SHRA.


&&

.MARINE...NE SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS. OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 7 FT DUE TO A TIGHTER GRADIENT

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST THU JAN 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WERE AFFECTING THE
LOCAL AREA THE LAST 24 HOURS. SOME SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...BUT THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE VERY LIGHT. NO MAJOR
CHANCES IN FORECAST REASONING FROM LAST 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO IS THE MARINE CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST BY COMPUTER MODEL TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION....MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF LOCAL
TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 28/16Z. WITH A PREVAILING EAST
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...VA FROM MONTSERRAT WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES.

[cycloneye]

Here is another web cam added to the very loooong first post of this tent thread,this one from ST John docking area of ferrys.If anyone has more web cams,post them and there will be added to the big album of cams at that first post of thread.It really looks like you are going in a tour of the Caribbean and Centralamerica if you see the Panama Canal cams and San Salvador cam.

[Macrocane]

That's a nice cam

The northerly winds have continued in Central America and I think they're at their peak at this time, the temperature has not dropped significantly but it feels cooler thanks to the moderate winds, although they're expected to end today as the ridge is weakening and moving eastwards.

I also wanted to share the "November 2009 climate bulletin",though it's in Spanish: http://www.snet.gob.sv/ver/meteorologia/clima/climatologico/

This are the most important information from the document:

- 100% of the stations reported above normal rainfall.
- The stations in San Vicente, San Miguel Tepezontes, Ilopango, Cojutepeque, San Salvador and Santa Tecla registered between 500% and 800% of the climatological precipitation This amounts of rainfall were caused by a low pressure in the Pacific and Hurricane Ida during november 6,7 and 8.
- San Vicente's station registered the highest precipitation anomaly 828% and also the highest accumulated rainfall 566 mm (22.3 inches).
- 7 stations reported positive maximum temperature anomaly and 18 had a negative anomaly.
- 8 stations reported negative minimum temperature anomaly and 17 had a positive anomaly.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon Discussion by NWS San Juan

Some scattered showers during the next few days as the trade winds will transport patches of clouds thru the area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST THU JAN 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SPREAD
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PREVAILING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH MOVES
INTO THE EAST ATLANTIC AND SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND DOMINATE
THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS WHILE MAINTAINING A DRY AND SUBSIDENT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE PRESENT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...WILL PUSH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WHICH HAVE BECOME SHEARED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL AND LOCAL
EFFECTS WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
AS WELL AS OVER ISOLATED COASTAL AREAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

EXPECT THE PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE FREQUENT ACROSS
THESE VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOCAL WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY OF SHORT DURATION WITH
LITTLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...AS THE MODERATE TO STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST SOUNDING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED PWAT VALUES NEAR TO OR BELOW 1.00
INCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A 2-3 CAP INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND
800 MILLIBARS.

THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH INTERVALS OF PASSING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER...
GUIDANCE FROM THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IF THIS UNFOLDS WE COULD SEE A
SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. BUT AS
USUAL... THIS IS STILL A WAY OUT AND PREFER TO WAIT AND SEE HOW
MODELS AND WEATHER PATTERN ADJUST OVER TIME BEFORE MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRESENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY ENE WIND FLOW OF
15-20 KTS WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS OF NEAR 25 KTS.

[cycloneye]

As I posted yesterday,the GFS has shown in the runs a potent low pressure with a strong cold front by the 8th of Febuary.On thursdays run at 12z,it has that strong low but the front looks less strong than Wednesday run.But for sure the seas will be up if that low materilizes that strong so lets continue to watch the next runs to see if that low stays and if the cold front is strong or weak.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1027 PM AST THU JAN 28 2010

...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...

.THE COMBINATION OF SWELLS AND MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WIND
WAVES WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AMZ710-722-732-291030-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-100201T1000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
1027 PM AST THU JAN 28 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Generally good weather for the NE Caribbean this weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 AM AST FRI JAN 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN
A FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXCELLENT WEATHER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS DEEP LAYER
RIDGING DOMINATES CARIBBEAN/W ATLC PROMOTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND A 15 TO 20 MPH EASTERLY BREEZE. ONLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
WEAK PIECES OF MARINE STRATOCU RIDING UNDER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
PROVIDING SOME LIGHT TRADE WIND DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE...BEST
CHANCES BEING SUNDAY ATTM. NEVERTHELESS...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BE VERY WEAK AND SHOULDNT BE ENOUGH TO RUIN ANY DAY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW TO PREVAIL NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SITES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...VERY MINOR ENE SWELL KEEPING SEAS JUST ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA OVER UNPROTECTED PASSAGES AND ATLC WATERS. ALSO WIND
WAVES TO BUILD OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOCALLY
CREATED FETCH FROM STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IN THAT REGION PICKS UP
SEAS GRADUALLY OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL KEEP SCA SCENARIO
UNCHANGED.

[msbee]

hello and happy weekend everyone!
Don't forget to watch the biggest brightest full moon of the year tonight.
and Mars will be right beside it in a close encounter with Earth.
http://www.spaceweather.com/

Regards
Barbara

[cycloneye]

Good weather for the next several days with the exception of patches of moistere from time to time.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST FRI JAN 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...NICE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE LOCAL
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE VI...AS WELL
AS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY. NO CHANGE TO THIS
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

hello and happy weekend everyone!
Don't forget to watch the biggest brightest full moon of the year tonight.
and Mars will be right beside it in a close encounter with Earth.
http://www.spaceweather.com/

Regards
Barbara

It should be a spectacular scene to watch,hopefully the clouds stay away after sunset.