Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

yea, it's been cloudy here too. so we will see if we can see.

[cycloneye]

Barbara,it was a spectacular view that I had after sunset with that big moon with little Mars beside.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
830 PM AST FRI JAN 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PROMOTING A GENERALLY DRY
AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE LOCAL
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...PRODUCING MAINLY ISOLATED PASSING
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN VI...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO...DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. NO CHANGES WERE DONE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL
TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 30/16Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ AND TIST AFTER 30/0600Z IN BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS. WITH A PREVAILING EAST NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW...VA FROM MONTSERRAT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF ALL THE LOCAL
TAF SITES. TJSJ 30/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AND EAST NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW...UP TO 25 KNOTS...ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 15K
FEET...BECOMING WEST NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST SAT JAN 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PROMOTING A GENERALLY DRY
AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATTELITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING PATCHES OF SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED AND MORE NUMEROUS...THEREFORE INCREASE
THE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AFFECT TH U.S.VI AND
EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
VARIABLY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS GENERATING ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH THE HIGH
PRESSURE TOWARD THE EAST...THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LATE MORNING...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND IF ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOP...NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL TAF
SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF PASSING -SHRA IS POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES
UNTIL 13Z...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FOR ANY MORE THAN
A FEW MINUTES. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG TODAY IN THE 15 TO 20
KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT MOST SITES...WITH STRONGEST FLOW
EXPECTED AT TIST AND TISX.


&&

.MARINE...THE GFS AND THE NAM MODEL ARE SUGGESTING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE ON WINDS TODAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS WILL GENERATE SEAS ABOVE 7
FEET...THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ELSEWHERE.

[cycloneye]

GFS continues to show the very strong low to our northeast that will cause for sure rough seas by the 8th.The cold front looks like after the first run that had it strong,it is a relative weak one.Lets continue to watch the next runs.

[cycloneye]

The 12z GFS for 1/30/10 continues to despict the strong low pressure to our northeast and the Cold Front that comes out from it.In this run it has a little more stronger front reaching the NE Caribbean by the 8th of Febuary.By the way,the front goes down to Centralamerica.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

Afternoon Discussion by NWS San Juan

They are starting to mention about next weekends model scenario but still is early to make a call on it.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST SAT JAN 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. A
PASSING BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS OR SO. A PASSING BAND OF
MOISTURE...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE VI AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
SHIFT SE TOMORROW...AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SHIFTS EASTWARD...BUT SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY
EASTERLY...AND BREEZY AT TIMES...FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITING...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...MAINLY ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...MIXED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LATEST MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
POSSIBLE CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT FAR
TO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CERTAINTY...SO LEFT INHERITED FORECAST
MAINLY INTACT.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BAND OF L/L CLODS AND FEW
EMBEDDED SHRA MAINLY BTW 020-090K FT...DRIFTING WEST ACROSS THE
REGION. SHRA ACTIVITY MAINLY SOUTH OF PR ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
NO SIG OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE FLYING AREA OR
TERMINAL AERODROMES. L/L ENDS WILL CONTINUE FM EAST AT 15-25 KTS
WITH INDC SFC WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KTS OR SO PSBL AT LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST UNTIL 31/00Z. VA PLUME AND GAS EMISSIONS NOW
VISIBLE AT TRPG FANNING OUT TO SOME 100 MILES OR SO WEST OF
MONTSERRAT. EXPECT GENERAL WIND FLOW TO BCMG MORE ESE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR VA NXT 24 HRS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Some showers for today as patches of clouds move thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 AM AST SUN JAN 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL
WEATHER PATTERN...PROMOTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PASSING BANDS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON SHRE AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
EASTERN ADJACENT ISLANDS. THESE CLOUD AND SHOWERS CLUSTERS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING.

THE NAM MODEL SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY....THIS WILL PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TODAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A VERY SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO IT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH PATCHES OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO EVERY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...TRADE WIND SHOWER BAND MOVING ACROSS PR/USVI WILL BRING
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KT AND SHRA CAPABLE OF CREATING
TEMPO MVFR CONDS OVER TIST...TJSJ AND TISX THROUGH 18Z...WITH
IMPROVING CONDS AFTERWARD.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH
MONDAY. A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL START TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED ABOVE THE 7 FEET
THEREFORE SCA WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

[cycloneye]

Updated Discussion by NWS San Juan

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1110 AM AST SUN JAN 31 2010

.UPDATE...LOCAL AREA WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...CONTINUED
TO PUSH THIS BAND OF MOSTLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/LIGHT
RAIN WESTWARDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO.

ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION...THE
LOCAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING APPEARED TO BE MAINLY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL
ADVECTION...OR LIFTING OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR OVER COOLER AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST TJSJ UPPER AIR
SOUNDING SUGGESTED THIS WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 700
MILLIBARS (4-6 DEGREE CAP) INVERSION LAYER. EXPECT GRADUAL LIFTING
AND CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MOISTURE BAND WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...DUE TO THE FAIRLY STRONG LOCAL
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO
SPREAD TO ISOLATED AREAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS
LATER THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH PASSING CLOUDS AND TRADE
WINDS SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN SOME COASTAL AREAS DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA AND TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF ISOLD SHRA
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OR
PR. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED FAINT VA PLUME EXTENDING
SOME 100 MILES OR SO W OF TRPG. REMAINDER OF FLYING AREA MASKED
BY LOW LEVEL CLD COVER WEST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...THEREFORE SOME VA EMISSIONS MAY MAKE IT CLOSER TO LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THAT TIME... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

[cycloneye]

Gustywind,I borrowed your image from Meteo-France. Interesting that big stratocumulus deck east of Antilles.

[Macrocane]

A cold front-high pressure system is affecting Central America right now, the northerly winds have picked up a little, they are expected to be on the 20-30 km/h range (13-19 mph) the temperatures will be warm in the day and cool at night. Some clouds and isolated to scattered showers have been moving over Central America because of the front. Here is the latest image:

[cycloneye]

Febuary is on average the driest month of the year in Puerto Rico but if GFS is right,the first half of the month will have above average precipitation.But we know the drill about the models.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Gustywind]

Gustywind,I borrowed your image from Meteo-France. Interesting that big stratocumulus deck east of Antilles.
are you a thief? no problem but only for this time lol Yeah big stratocumulus east of us.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon Discussion by NWS San Juan

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
331 PM AST SUN JAN 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PASSING BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
OVERALL...NO HEAVY OR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN OLD BAND OF MOISTURE REALIGNED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
THIS MORNING AND BROUGHT CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR MOST
OF THE DAY...WHILE JUST TO OUR EAST THE VI ENJOYED A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS HOWEVER HAVE BEEN LIGHT...AS WILL ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. EVEN SO...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS EVENING WILL HELP TO PAD FURTHER THE NEW RAINFALL
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY...WHICH CURRENTLY STANDS AT 11.07
INCHES...SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 7.60 INCHES WHICH
ACCUMULATED AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT BACK IN 1977.

OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. WILL STILL SEE PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE VI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...NO WIDESPREAD OR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...A N-S ORIENTED BAND OF LOW LVL CLDS BTW 015-080 KFT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS PR...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. THE PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW
WILL BRING INTMT MVFR IN LOW CIGS AND PASSING SHRA ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR AS WELL IN AND AROUND...TJMZ... TJBQ...
TJPS UNTIL 31/23Z. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REST OF LOCAL TAF
SITES. OCNL GUSTY SFC WNDS TO NR 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF
SITES TIL 31/22Z. VA AND GAS EMISSIONS CONTD FM TRPG...BUT
CURRENT STEERING WND FLOW WILL KEEP MAIN VA PLUME SOUTH AND AWAY
FM LOCAL FLYING AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY SPREADING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS BY TOMORROW MORNING. IN
ADDITION...A CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RESULT IN FRESH AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS...CONTRIBUTING TO
OVERALL HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST MON FEB 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL
WEATHER PATTERN...PROMOTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS ,MOVING
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.
WITH A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE SOUTHEAST MUNICIPALITIES
OVERNIGHT. SATELLITES IMAGES ARE SHOWING A LARGE CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THESE AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MID MORNING. THE NAM MODEL SUGGEST A
LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS CLUSTER WILL START TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...THIS WILL ALSO COMBINED
WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...
GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WILL STILL
SEE PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE VI AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. HOWEVER...NO WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL SITES...WITH FLOW
WEAKENING A BIT TO 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN MVFR
CIG/VSBY IN PASSING SHRA AFTER 18Z AT TIST AND TISX...BUT OTHERWISE
VFR. VA PLUME FROM MONTSERRAT BEING TRANSPORTED TO SW OF VOLCANO...
WELL OUT OF LOCAL FLYING AREA.


&&

.MARINE...THE 41043 IS SHOWING COMBINED SEAS AT AROUND 7 FEET
WITH A NE SWELL AT AROUND 6 FEET AND WITH A PERIOD OF 12 SECONDS.
THEREFORE SCA HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND OFF
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING.

[cycloneye]

New Rainfall Record for January in San Juan is 11.07 inches

http://www.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=sju

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        0.02          0.98 1982   0.09  -0.07     0.00
  MONTH TO DATE   11.07                      3.02   8.05     2.49
  SINCE DEC 1     12.90                      7.59   5.31     7.07
  SINCE JAN 1     11.07                      3.02   8.05     2.49


[cycloneye]

I thought that the clouds east of us would dissipate but that stratocumulus deck continues there and in fact it has grown since yesterday.If that moves west,it means a rainy period for the NE Caribbean.

[Macrocane]

It seems that the new January record will be hard to break, doesn't it?

[cycloneye]

It seems that the new January record will be hard to break, doesn't it?

Here is the statement about the January record.It may take many decades for a new record to be broken as January is the third driest month in Puerto Rico.

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY CONCLUDED THE 23RD WETTEST MONTH IN THE HISTORY OF
RECORD KEEPING SINCE 1956 AT SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND THE WETTEST
JANUARY EVER IN THAT SAME PERIOD. TOTAL RAINFALL RECORDED AT THE
ASOS THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT IN JANUARY 2010 WAS 11.07
INCHES. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 7.60 INCHES SET IN 1977. ALTHOUGH
JANUARY 2010 HAD THE MOST RAIN OF ANY JANUARY SINCE 1956...IT WAS
BY NO MEANS THE JANUARY WITH THE MOST NUMBER OF DAYS OF RAIN.
ONLY 17 DAYS HAD MEASURABLE RAIN LAST MONTH...WHEREAS JANUARY 0F
1990 HAD THE MOST WITH 26 DAYS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. EVEN SO
ONLY 4.56 INCHES OF RAIN FELL THAT YEAR. THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL RECORD
HOLDER...1977...HAD EVEN FEWER DAYS OF RAIN WITH A TOTAL OF ONLY
13 DAYS RECEIVING ONE ONE HUNDREDTH OR MORE.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon Discussion by NWS San Juan

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST MON FEB 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND BE SLIGHTLY FLATTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND PASSES JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SUBTROPICAL JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 70 KNOTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RIDGE WILL AGAIN
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND THUS RETAIN FAIRLY DRY UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER EXITING THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IS SEPARATED BY A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF MOISTURE...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THE TWO HIGH PRESSURE
AREAS WILL MERGE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING AREA OF OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND WEAKEN THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC AND THE ATLANTIC HIGH RECEDES
EASTWARD. AS A RESULT EXPECT PASSING CLOUDS AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS
TO AFFECT THE MAINLY THE COASTAL AREA OF PUERTO RICO AND ISOLATED
AREAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY EXPECT A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS HELP INDUCE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES
ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION...AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...BRINGING A RETURN
OF THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND SHOWERS...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS MAINLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
02/23Z EXCEPT AT TNCM AND TKPK WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO CIGS IS
LIKELY BTWN 02/03-09Z AND POSSIBLE AFT 02/16Z. FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
VEER TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AFT 02/10Z AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO BRING
THE ONGOING VOLCANIC ASH PLUME TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ASH
MAY FILTER ACROSS SOME OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES OF THE USVI BY 12Z AT
THE LATEST...BUT IF ANY ASH WILL BE DIFFUSE AT THIS TIME.

[cycloneye]

Updated Discussion by NWS San Juan

The talk of a wetter next week intensifies.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
943 PM AST MON FEB 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HOLD
STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN COLLAPSE AS DEEP POLAR
TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. UNDER THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN XPC CVRG TO BE
HIGHEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ISOLD CVRG AT BEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FLATTENS LATE IN THE WEEK AS A VERY DEEP MID-
UPPER LEVEL POLAR TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES CRANK UP A COUPLE OF VERY DEEP SFC LOWS ACROSS
THE NORTH ATLC THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE SECOND
CDFNT (NEXT MONDAY) OR ASSOCIATED SHEARLINE GETTING VERY CLOSE TO THE
AREA AND BRINGING US POTENTIALLY MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS. LONG
RANGE PROGNOSTIC TOOLS LIKE 1-2 WEEK MJO FORECASTS FROM
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMIC MODELS SUGGEST A STRONG PULSE OF THE MJO
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A MORE ACTIVE/WETTER
PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS.


&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS AND PASSAGES.