SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Yankeegirl]

So all that rain out to the west of here, is it going to move in this direction?

[srainhoutx]

Congrats on the rain Texas. I know all to well the pain of day after day of no rain and no clouds. I just wish a little more was supposed to fall down south of I 10 where its needed even worse. Either way. Enjoy your wet stuff.

We need it, but not with flooding. ~sigh~

[JenBayles]

Ouch! Don't even think about the "F-word"!

Nothing but sprinkles here in Bear Creek the past two days. Holding my breath that if we do see storms tonight and tomorrow, they won't be of the training variety.

[srainhoutx]

Ouch! Don't even think about the "F-word"!

Nothing but sprinkles here in Bear Creek the past two days. Holding my breath that if we do see storms tonight and tomorrow, they won't be of the training variety.

We missed you1!1 Hope all is well since April.

[JenBayles]

Thanks srain! :-D

Seems like reconstruction will never end, but we're down to punchlist items now and there aren't a great deal of them thankfully. My mother has been very ill all summer - nearly lost her twice. Between the flood and trying to maintain Mom's health issues, I about had a nervous breakdown. But, things are looking up now for both the house and my mother. At least we don't have to go to the hospital every two weeks for blood transfusions. I'll take whatever relief I can get!

Our flood task force has made some progress on the myriad problems that contribute to our ongoing and worsening flooding here in Bear Creek. Managed to get Flood Control to survey Langham Creek to determine if it needs desilting (dredging). Yeah, no kidding! The formal report should be out before the end of this month. If it says what it should say, then we have to fight Commissioners' Court for funding of the project. It's going to be a veeeery long process...

[srainhoutx]

Thanks srain! :-D

Seems like reconstruction will never end, but we're down to punchlist items now and there aren't a great deal of them thankfully. My mother has been very ill all summer - nearly lost her twice. Between the flood and trying to maintain Mom's health issues, I about had a nervous breakdown. But, things are looking up now for both the house and my mother. At least we don't have to go to the hospital every two weeks for blood transfusions. I'll take whatever relief I can get!

Our flood task force has made some progress on the myriad problems that contribute to our ongoing and worsening flooding here in Bear Creek. Managed to get Flood Control to survey Langham Creek to determine if it needs desilting (dredging). Yeah, no kidding! The formal report should be out before the end of this month. If it says what it should say, then we have to fight Commissioners' Court for funding of the project. It's going to be a veeeery long process...

Congrats Jen. You championed a valid concern.

[jasons2k]

Glad to see you back Jen. I hope as well you don't have to deal with "F" again!!!

[Nederlander]

thanks for the link southerngale.... im kinda upset.. i went and rented movies and video games and had a full weekend planned of staying in bed all weekend and now theres no rain

[Diva]

I totally agree! It's been dark, grey and gloomy all day but only spits of rain. Not complaining...just surprised is all. I DO hope that the rain holds off until after tonight's football games are done though! The game may be fun to watch being played in the mud but the band uniforms just don't look good with mud all over them!

I'm guessing you don't have much to worry about. The Houston NWS discussion mentions that the precip should start to diminish in the next few hours. I don't know how it's going to diminish anything over here unless it starts sucking the tiny bit I did get out of the ground.

Last night's game was PERFECT! No rain, the clouds partially cleared, and the temp was wonderful! Oh, and we won!!!

Now, is it ever gonna rain here??? "They" keep saying it will but I'm beginning to wonder.....

[mpic]

im kinda upset.. i went and rented movies and video games and had a full weekend planned of staying in bed all weekend and now theres no rain

Ditto here. I even took one of my vacation days for tomorrow to have a long weekend and avoid getting out in the heavy rains. Of course, it WILL be nice to have a mini vacation of sorts as it will be getting hectic at work with the holidays coming. I've had a little rain, too, and guess it's much better than having it all at once...maybe it will have time to soak in some. This cly is really stubborn sometimes.

[lebron23]

in my unprofessional opinion i think that these counties south of I-10 there threat has somewhat diminished
Fort Bend, Wharton, Matagorda, Jackson

These areas I would give 30-50 percent pops..

of course its unprofessional

[Diva]

Orange county is finally getting some healthy showers!

[Flyinman]

We have only seen drizzle all day. Has been nice and cool but same scenario, different month. One day all the rain to the West, the next all the rain to the East.

[southerngale]

We have only seen drizzle all day. Has been nice and cool but same scenario, different month. One day all the rain to the West, the next all the rain to the East.

I've been getting light rain for a little while now... very light. This is hardly the drought-buster that was advertised, at least for most folks. I realize that some spots are seeing more rain, but the "widespread MANY inches," appears to be a huge bust. I realize we still have yet another day of "heavy rain" but I'm not holding my breath. I'm not criticizing anyone in particular as everyone seemed to have the same forecast. I'm not sure what happened, but I assume that everyone was looking at the same crappy models.



Congrats, diva. You're one of the lucky ones.

[jasons2k]

Well, it's not over yet...not until that ULL moves east of here.

Here are the storm totals out of Lake Charles so far. Just offshore over 11":


Shot at 2009-09-12

[srainhoutx]

HGX echos why some of us a concerned this is not over yet...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
305 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTN
WHILE 1006 MB SFC LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST.
A SFC COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
HAS PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVY CONVECTION TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND LACK OF A SFC FOCUS HAVE WORKED AGAINST DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BECOME A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE SFC LOW/COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE SFC
FOCUS THAT HAS BEEN LACKING RECENTLY. IN ADDITION UPPER FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT ACROSS THE AREA. A
CONVERGENCE ZONE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
SE TX AS WELL. PWS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES
AREAWIDE THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE BLANKETED LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
SE TX TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEGINNING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1/2
INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY KIND OF A WATCH FOR THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AS HINTED AT IN
SPC`S DAY 2 OUTLOOK THERE WILL BE A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR FUNNEL
CLOUDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO SUNDAY NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWOHGX.

SFC LOW WILL SWING EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH WINDS IN THE
LOW LEVELS SHIFTING TO A WEST/NORTHWEST DIRECTION. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS (PWS 1.8-2.0 INCHES)
REMAINING OVER THE AREA WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH
BEST COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. A FEW POCKETS OF SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEATING AIDING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH THE MID LEVELS FILTERS LOWER
PW AIR INTO THE AREA. THE 12Z GFS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF ON THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT STILL APPEARS A
LITTLE FAST MOVING IT OUT WHEN COMPARED WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.
HAVE GONE MORE WITH THE MEAN WHICH SHOWS THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH A SHARP CUTOFF OF MOISTURE/PRECIP AT THAT
POINT. THE ECMWF REMAINS A DAY OR TWO SLOWER THAN THIS. PWS ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DROP FROM 1.8-1.9 INCHES TUESDAY TO AROUND
1.4 INCHES BY THURSDAY. WILL TAPER DOWN POPS FROM HIGH CHANCE
LEVEL TUESDAY TO 20S AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX BY NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT TYPICAL
LATE SUMMER WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN MAX TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO NORMAL
LEVELS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

[jasons2k]

I think the discussion explains all the features nicely. I agree with them and lean towards the EURO solution. I haven't been optimistic for rain in a long time but I still feel this will eventually gives us a good rain for the Houston area before it's done.

[southerngale]

I admire your enthusiasm Jason, but I ain't falling for it anymore.

I'm in the dark blue (along with MANY others)... that's 0.3 according to their estimates. The GOM is getting a nice soaking, though.

And I know some of our friends to our west and southwest got some much needed rain... that's a good thing. But here... I think it's over, but I will be THRILLED if I'm wrong.

[jasons2k]

I know how you feel...I've gotten a whopping .04" today. I'm just sayin' keep watching (knock on wood)

[southerngale]

I started that post before you two replied, but like I said, I hope I'm wrong, but they've been saying heavy rain for days now and it hasn't happened. I see that they explained why, but I have a feeling they'll be explaining tomorrow what kept it from happening again.

JMO and I really want rain, and a lot of it, so I hope we do get it... I'm just not getting my hopes up anymore. It's better not to expect it and be surprised if it happens.