Texas Spring-2014

[Portastorm]

I'm a bit surprised there were no warnings issued for that storm that moved through your area Porta.
But I'm very happy and thankful we got rain today! A similar storm hit my house in SA this afternoon with small hail and about .40 inch of rain. Not bad!

Yea I feel the same way. I know the NWS did not issue a warning because the storm was apparently just alittle below severe storm criteria but tell that to the people that live a couple of houses down from me that had a tall Cedar Elm tree snap in half falling into the street blocking half of it. They were lucky because their car was unscathed just inches from the canopy. Had it fallen a few feet over it would have been crushed. I also saw a mailbox ripped right out of the ground pole and all as well as lots of tree limbs down and a bunch of trash and recyclable bins not only knocked over but were thrown all over with trash and debris everywhere. Its going to be a mess to clean up tomorrow.

Now whether the NWS thought it was severe or not, I know that we have had severe storm warnings issued for our area several times before and those storms did not produce the kind of damage we saw tonight. As one local news meteorologist put it was basically like splitting hairs when it came down to classification.

IMO that storm had higher winds than what the recording stations picked up. There were power outages in parts of the city and in West Campus a bunch of scaffolding fell on a vehicle driving by, luckily the people inside were okay. The damage I saw in my neighborhood could not have been done with 50 to 55 mph winds. There had to have been some pretty strong gusts above that to do what it did.

In situations like this if damage like what we saw tonight are being reported in a heavily populated area, that should have been the point where they issued a warning. A lot of people were caught off guard and were out and a bout in it.

I've seen numerous "warned" storms that couldn't match what we experienced last night. I agree that it was a matter of splitting hairs and this situation isn't unlike the ice event in Dallas this past winter where orangeblood and others here were livid about a lack of warnings from their local NWS office. A warning last night would have been nice to give folks a heads up. Anyone watching radar saw how the storms blew up (enhanced further than the condition they were in) about 50 miles west of Austin as they moved southeast. I was surprised to see no warnings. Call it what you want, but I would have classified it as "severe."

[TheProfessor]

The 6z GFS shows some very beneficial rain for the eastern 2/3 of the state, especially Houston.

[aggiecutter]

And this from PWC meteorologist Joe Bastardi on the upcoming summer:

"Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h
ECMWF seasonal forecast very impressive with rains for southern plains mid summer into fall! Warm enso, global temp spike MEANS WET there!"

[dhweather]

Joe B tweets:

BigJoeBastardi: Heh SUper El Nino Mongers

We know you are hoping for a major spike, but its a come and go warm event . Us pays big price next winter


BigJoeBastardi: The cold DECADOL PDO warm enso much different than warm ones of 80s/90s. Sorry, a global spike, than bigger downturn follows, like 9/10


BigJoeBastardi: You will have 6-9 months to scream warming, then when cooling starts anew, you will have to go back to climate change

He needs to keep his climate change debate out of Enso and stick to the data. He first called for a weak Nino which is likely to be left for dust by a bigger event.

No doubt, he's become too politicized in his forecasts. Yesterday tweeting about the drought in Texas, implying it was population growth. Waco had the driest Jan 1 - April 1 in recorded history, no rain = drought Joe. Population puts stress on reservoirs, but no rain = drought.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose has a new video blog on the El Niño Watch.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[South Texas Storms]

The models seem to be struggling with the system late this weekend. They've been flip flopping between a decent line of storms along the next cold front or another dry front. I prefer the former.

[dhweather]

This mornings AFD from FWD


CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE A RAPID RETURN TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
SATURDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP
A SQUALL LINE ALONG A COLD FRONT IN OKLAHOMA AND BRING THIS MCS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE IN THEIR
TIMINGS BUT THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT AND MCS. THE CANADIAN IS ANOTHER 6 HOURS SLOWER
THAN THE ECMWF. ITS LOOKING MORE CERTAIN THAT AT LEAST THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING BUT THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS PREVENT US
FROM INCREASING POPS TOO MUCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
CAP WEAKENING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 50 KTS SUGGEST
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SQUALL LINE...ESPECIALLY IF
IT CAN STAY ROOTED IN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION...THE PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AFTER DAYBREAK.




curse you CAP

[dhweather]

Afternoon FWD AFD

WE STILL SEE A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY RAIN EVENT RATHER THAN SUNDAY DAYTIME
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING EVENT. AGAIN...UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
AGREEMENT...I HAVE NOT CHANGED POPS BUT COULD SEE THEM SLIPPING
12 HOURS IF THE NEXT SET OF DATA CONFIRMS THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.

THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...BUFKIT GFS SOUNDINGS AT
DFW DO NOT SHOW THE CAP BREAKING TO UTILIZE THAT CAPE. BETTER QPF
MAY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN AREAS IF THE CAP HOLDS IN THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT IT MAY JUST BE NOISE IN
THE GFS SOLUTION.



ARRRRRRRRRGHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[gboudx]

You might as well write a script that logs in and posts a complaint about the CAP. It's just an everyday part of NTX weather life. It would be like living in SELA and complaining about the humidity everyday.

[dhweather]

You might as well write a script that logs in and posts a complaint about the CAP. It's just an everyday part of NTX weather life. It would be like living in SELA and complaining about the humidity everyday.

Automation - I like the way you think.

It would be nice once in a while just to see a forecast talk about rain/thunderstorms and not be qualified with "if the cap breaks....."

[gboudx]

You might as well write a script that logs in and posts a complaint about the CAP. It's just an everyday part of NTX weather life. It would be like living in SELA and complaining about the humidity everyday.

Automation - I like the way you think.

It would be nice once in a while just to see a forecast talk about rain/thunderstorms and not be qualified with "if the cap breaks....."

I had never heard the meteorological term "Cap" until we moved to Dallas in 1995. I despised hearing it like you and would routinely go outside and shake my fist angrily at the sky. Ok, I made up the "routinely" part.

But Sunday night into Monday morning look promising for more rain. We got about 0.8" from the last event and hopefully we got a lot more this time, because the ground would produce more run-off now.

[Ntxw]

The cap is always a signature thing in the southern plains. We'll never stop hearing about it, it is a part of life in Texas and Oklahoma. It is broken two ways, either you heat up to the proper temperatures or you provide lift. In the spring and summer when the cap is stronger the best way to do this is either cold fronts or a vigorous shortwave passing overhead. The first option is limited because the front scours moisture. The second option has been rare since the -PDO/La Nina's as storms have passed by further north. A southern stream would benefit, especially like ones in El Nino.

Cold period still on store and possible 30s, frost is a threat. By the second half of this month, baja lows will start emerging more often or least EPAC lows. The atmosphere is currently in transition to respond to the oncoming El Nino, which all guidance are now in good agreement of a strong full basin Nino. And frankly you don't even need the models to know one was coming, the Pacific ocean has provided ample evidence. April has proven so thus far with most of Texas recording more cloudy days than clear.

A good post I made before worthy saying again, when you have a strong temperature anomaly in the Ocean, those downstream will likely feel stronger or extreme weather events in correlation. We saw this over the winter with the NEPAC warm pool. Now the big dog will be El Nino with it's strong anomalies.

[South Texas Storms]

The cap is always a signature thing in the southern plains. We'll never stop hearing about it, it is a part of life in Texas and Oklahoma. It is broken two ways, either you heat up to the proper temperatures or you provide lift. In the spring and summer when the cap is stronger the best way to do this is either cold fronts or a vigorous shortwave passing overhead. The first option is limited because the front scours moisture. The second option has been rare since the -PDO/La Nina's as storms have passed by further north. A southern stream would benefit, especially like ones in El Nino.

Cold period still on store and possible 30s, frost is a threat. By the second half of this month, baja lows will start emerging more often or least EPAC lows. The atmosphere is currently in transition to respond to the oncoming El Nino, which all guidance are now in good agreement of a strong full basin Nino. And frankly you don't even need the models to know one was coming, the Pacific ocean has provided ample evidence. April has proven so thus far with most of Texas recording more cloudy days than clear.

A good post I made before worthy saying again, when you have a strong temperature anomaly in the Ocean, those downstream will likely feel stronger or extreme weather events. We saw this over the winter with the NEPAC warm pool. Now the big dog will be El Nino with it's strong anomalies.

I'm still optimistic that the wetter weather pattern will begin later this month (as you predicted a few months ago). May is typically one of the wettest months of the year. If we can get above normal rainfall next month, it could possibly be a very wet month!

[WeatherGuesser]

SPC showing a severe risk for Sunday for TX/OK/LA/AR

[dhweather]

Interesting tweets from Jim Edds @ExtremeStorms


ExtremeStorms: Breaking: Forecast from Hurricane Conference from Gray/Klotzbach: 9 named storms, 3 Hurricanes, 1 Major in Atlantic basin 2014.

ExtremeStorms: We will likely see a significant El Nino event in 2014 - Klotzbach/Gray from the hurricane conference.



Come on major El Nino! Bring us copious amounts of rain!

[gboudx]

That's low forecasted numbers for tropical activity. I'm not complaining.

[Portastorm]

Nice blog write-up here by Mike Ventrice which touches upon our spring weather prospects and El Nino.

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-through-the-first-half-of-may/

[gboudx]

Nice read. But what is the acryonym "CAISO"?

[weatherdude1108]

That's what I was wondering(?).

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Nice read. But what is the acryonym "CAISO"?

I'm believe it is an energy sector term relating namely to California. So I think CAISO refers to the California energy sector or the California energy grid. *I think*