Texas Summer 2016

[dhweather]

Cat. 5 in the Gulf? Granted it is model lala land right now, but YIKES.

I like the way you think!

Thanks! I've seen it mentioned time and again over the years. How did that phrase originally start? I think it was before I joined this forum. Such a classic!

It was born in Talkin' Tropics - from various model outputs, usually longer range.

examples:


"The CMC has a cat 5 in the gulf in 120 hours"
"The GFS has a cat 5 in the gulf in 96 hours"
"The Euro has a cat 5 in the gulf in 108 hours"


So the spin became just "cat 5 in the gulf"

[weatherdude1108]

Wonderful. I leave for the Sierras in California tomorrow through next Tuesday. Lows in the 40s, one day 39!


000
FXUS64 KEWX 021904
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
204 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...

Mid-level anticyclone has become centered over South Central Tx
and looks to further dry out low levels and raise max temps.
Expansion of the mid-level ridge into the Northern Plains should
result in lighter sfc winds over TX, which should allow for
better cooling overnight while continuing trends for fewer low
clouds at daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

No impacts from newly formed TS Earl are expected to reach this
far into TX as the high pressure at mid levels maintains its
intensity over Central Tx late this week into the weekend. A
subtle deepening of onshore winds Thursday into Friday could lead
to a few showers and storms forming over our far SErn counties by
Friday, but could also mean warmer min temps by a degree or two
Thursday morning through the weekend. The slightly deeper moist
layer resulting from deeper onshore flow could take a degree or
two off weekend highs, but heat indices are expected to remain
high through the extended periods. [b]The most recent of model runs
have trended toward the high pressure aloft remaining entrenched
over TX whereas earlier runs had suggested the ridge center to
drift north and allow for some moderation in temperatures. With
this unfortunate trend, will go ahead and update the HWO to extend
concerns for elevated heat indices of 104 to 109 degrees for the
remainder of the extended forecast.[/b]


June Lake, CA

Tuesday
08/02
84 | 46 °F
Tuesday 0 % Precip. / 0 in
Sunny. High 84F. Winds WSW at 10 to 20 mph.
Tuesday Night 0 % Precip. / 0 in
Clear skies. Low 46F. Winds WNW at 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday
08/03
85 | 46 °F
Wednesday 0 % Precip. / 0 in
Sunny skies. High near 85F. ENE winds shifting to WSW at 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday Night 0 % Precip. / 0 in
Mostly clear. Low 46F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday
08/04
81 | 43 °F
Thursday 20 % Precip. / 0 in
Sunny skies. High 81F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph.
Thursday Night 0 % Precip. / 0 in
Clear. Low 43F. Winds WSW at 10 to 15 mph.

Friday
08/05
79 | 40 °F
Friday 0 % Precip. / 0 in
Sunny. High 79F. Winds SW at 10 to 20 mph.
Friday Night 0 % Precip. / 0 in
Clear skies. Low near 40F. W winds at 10 to 15 mph, decreasing to less than 5 mph.

Saturday
08/06
80 | 39 °F
Saturday 0 % Precip. / 0 in
Sunny. High near 80F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph.
Saturday Night 0 % Precip. / 0 in
Clear skies. Low 39F. Winds WSW at 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday
08/07
79 | 40 °F
Sunday 0 % Precip. / 0 in
Sunny. High 79F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph.
Sunday Night 0 % Precip. / 0 in
Clear skies. Low around 40F. W winds at 10 to 15 mph, decreasing to less than 5 mph.

Monday
08/08
79 | 42 °F
Monday 0 % Precip. / 0 in
Sunny. High 79F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph.
Monday Night 0 % Precip. / 0 in
Clear skies. Low 42F. Winds W at 10 to 15 mph.

[JDawg512]

I'm not surprised by EWXs discussion one bit. It only confirms what I said yesterday.

Believe me, I would like nothing more than to be wrong and would like nothing more than to see a stream of moisture and above normal rainfall for the last half of August.

We'll see how the forecast looks in 7 days.

[aggiecutter]

On this date, back in 2011:

[Ntxw]

Keep your eyes on the West Pacific. Euro and ensembles are supporting a big Typhoon interacting with the jet stream once it re-curves near Japan. If this is so, there would be implications down the road for a more potent pattern shift as we all know this time of year when the typhoons start recurving, they can interfere with the stale patterns. 98W seems like a good candidate.

[aggiecutter]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
Euro seeing possible northern gulf problems from tail of trough dropping ssw in 4-8 day period

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Keep your eyes on the West Pacific. Euro and ensembles are supporting a big Typhoon interacting with the jet stream once it re-curves near Japan. If this is so, there would be implications down the road for a more potent pattern shift as we all know this time of year when the typhoons start recurving, they can interfere with the stale patterns. 98W seems like a good candidate.

Heard about this yesterday. Maybe a dry front coming in our future? I'll take it.

Also watching the warm blob in the Pacific. Recently found the analog page on tropical tidbits and shows the blob sticking around for a bit. Lets pray!

[Ntxw]

98W has become Omais in the WPAC and will likely become a typhoon. This is a very large system in terms of size and is something capable of buckling the jet stream as it moves north.

[gpsnowman]

98W has become Omais in the WPAC and will likely become a typhoon. This is a very large system in terms of size and is something capable of buckling the jet stream as it moves north.

Any relief is needed so let's hope it does. 103 for the high today. Just plain nasty and gross. I am so ready for the first "cool" front.

[Tireman4]

I....cant....take...this...anymore.....I hate Summer. Come on September 25th....oh by the way, we need to have our prognostication contest again....

[TeamPlayersBlue]

About 6 more weeks guys, just hang in there!

[Brent]

I'll be honest... this summer really hasn't bothered me THAT much

until this week...

Omg this weather sucks. I'm counting the weeks... need relief

[aggiecutter]

On this date back in 2011:

[Ntxw]

It's subtle but some guidance (including ECMWF) are showing some changes. Not a fall front by any means, but would break this rut of a pattern we are in and maybe a wind shifting front by mid month. Typhoon rule. Omais will buckle the jet stream.

[aggiecutter]

I was thinking the same thing when I saw the CPC 8-14.

[vbhoutex]

It's subtle but some guidance (including ECMWF) are showing some changes. Not a fall front by any means, but would break this rut of a pattern we are in and maybe a wind shifting front by mid month. Typhoon rule. Omais will buckle the jet stream.

http://i66.tinypic.com/2mdgu45.png

http://i65.tinypic.com/25uty0i.png

Maybe for N TX. Looks like SOSDD for SE TX. August is traditionally our hottest month. I guess I can dream.

[A.V.]

It's subtle but some guidance (including ECMWF) are showing some changes. Not a fall front by any means, but would break this rut of a pattern we are in and maybe a wind shifting front by mid month. Typhoon rule. Omais will buckle the jet stream.

http://i66.tinypic.com/2mdgu45.png

http://i65.tinypic.com/25uty0i.png

Maybe for N TX. Looks like SOSDD for SE TX. August is traditionally our hottest month. I guess I can dream.

It's worth noting that August only became the hottest month in SE TX starting with the 1981-2010 normals; historically (as recently as 1971-2000), it was July, not August, that was the hottest month. So, chances are, that August heat is only a temporary trend in the grand climactic scheme.

1971-2000 for Houston, HOU:
http://i.imgur.com/ouoOK0D.png

Also, if the jetstream is in that much of a buckle, then rain chances will follow as per instability, which is what truly matters (regardless of what the temps are).

[Brent]

August may or may not be the hottest month... but in any case, usually towards mid and especially late month you start to see pattern shifts towards slightly lower temps and rain chances... and we're losing daylight everyday... we just gotta hang in there. I can already start to notice in the evening it's getting dark earlier... its no longer light past 9pm...

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro has a cold front bringing decent rain chances back to much of Texas in 7-10 days.

[Ntxw]

August may or may not be the hottest month... but in any case, usually towards mid and especially late month you start to see pattern shifts towards slightly lower temps and rain chances... and we're losing daylight everyday... we just gotta hang in there. I can already start to notice in the evening it's getting dark earlier... its no longer light past 9pm...

Past this week the average lows drop. That is where we will most likely see changes first.