Texas Summer 2024

[txtwister78]

Man, give it up for the ICON. Model was locked in pretty far out that this would be much further up the coast, and it appears to have scored the win overall with the 12z Euro now further east again.

[South Texas Storms]

Man, give it up for the ICON. Model was locked in pretty far out that this would be much further up the coast, and it appears to have scored the win overall with the 12z Euro now further east again.

The cruel pattern of the Hill Country missing out on heavy rain events continues. It seems like that area is cursed. Every time it looks like they will finally cash in something changes. Just brutal.

[Brent]

Meanwhile it's 82 degrees here at mid afternoon

[txtwister78]

If this thing keeps moving north, it may end up missing most of the Texas coastline at this rate. Incredible track changes within the last 12-18 hours both real-time and beyond. Another example of mother nature making up her own rules while making most of our models look silly.

[Portastorm]

Man, give it up for the ICON. Model was locked in pretty far out that this would be much further up the coast, and it appears to have scored the win overall with the 12z Euro now further east again.

The cruel pattern of the Hill Country missing out on heavy rain events continues. It seems like that area is cursed. Every time it looks like they will finally cash in something changes. Just brutal.

As Bart Simpson once said: “that sucks and blows.”

[txtwister78]

One thing is for sure with that jog to the north while over the Yucatan it definitely took a toll on the storm. Looks pretty ragged right now on Infared. NHC still holding with a landfall around Corpus, but they note additional track changes are possible.

[Edwards Limestone]

Man, give it up for the ICON. Model was locked in pretty far out that this would be much further up the coast, and it appears to have scored the win overall with the 12z Euro now further east again.

The cruel pattern of the Hill Country missing out on heavy rain events continues. It seems like that area is cursed. Every time it looks like they will finally cash in something changes. Just brutal.

Exactly what I came here to post. Just brutal for us.

Never would have thought this would miss us to the EAST.
It’s gonna be hot/dry/windy, great.

[Tejas89]

Anyone else smell an “off year” from the usual frying pan in north Texas?

It’s in the 80s with drizzle and no 100s in the extended.

[txtwister78]

Look at those changes on the Euro over the past 24 hours.

 https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1809376160544968814

[rwfromkansas]

Holy cow…the shift from being south to maybe giving lots of TX rain to now SE TX. I’m stunned. I pray for folks in the path that now have limited time to prepare. I am disgusted this happened in 2024. The risk of subsidence heat is nothing compared to the threat to property.

[mmmmsnouts]

This is some great weather for draining all the stored heat from my garage.

[Brent]

At the rate this storm is going it'll be in Louisiana by Monday

[txtwister78]

Encouraging trend regarding the intensity guidance forecast for Beryl. Almost all models here now keep this TS strength at final landfall. Definitely looks rough right now thankfully (perhaps a low-end TS). The upcoming NHC advisory will verify that obviously.

[txtwister78]

Interesting recon pass. New center much further south now?

[txtwister78]

Now the GEFS is doing its best Jim Carey impersonation "so you're saying there's a chance".

[Cpv17]

At the rate this storm is going it'll be in Louisiana by Monday

Haha I’ve been saying the same thing too

[South Texas Storms]

Now the GEFS is doing its best Jim Carey impersonation "so you're saying there's a chance".

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefsens/2024070600/138/qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_sc.png

One last Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown at the last second huh GFS Ens? Come on man we know better down here in south central TX not to fall for that trick

[funster]

Still west enough forecast to get some rain in north texas at this point but could continue its move east in the models leaving us dry. If it comes in weaker the rain might spread out more than with a consolidated cane.

Even clouds are nice this time of year "happy little clouds" to quote bob ross although not happy for the coast if beryl strengthens.

[Iceresistance]

I just posted this, when I filmed the lightning and fireworks at the same time

https://youtu.be/RSCfA2g2PeU

(Why is the YT embed not working?)

[Shoshana]

Sitting here watching all the Beryl models and discussions and keeping an eye on local Mets. Still can’t decide if we’re gonna be dry, wet or flooded on the east side of Austin…