Texas Fall 2024

[Brent]

Early November still looks promising I just wish it wasn't 10-15 days out I feel like nothing at this range has verified

I mean you would think climo catches up at some point

[Edwards Limestone]

The lack of rain is becoming very concerning for drought feedback next spring/summer. I'm afraid it's going to get very ugly ala 2011.

[Stratton23]

Noaa is favoring a good chunk of texas in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks for above normal precipitation, im cautiously optimistic

[Kirby68]

I have lived in North Texas my entire life of 56 years. September and especially October has always been my favorite time of the year because of football starting and also it being the end of summer. I remember the mid to late September pacific fronts blowing through always bringing storms and cooler weather. That just seems like a distant memory now. I’ve now gone 30 days with not a drop of precipitation in Roanoke and it’s been hot. This is just miserable. The new normal it seems.

[Brent]

I have lived in North Texas my entire life of 56 years. September and especially October has always been my favorite time of the year because of football starting and also it being the end of summer. I remember the mid to late September pacific fronts blowing through always bringing storms and cooler weather. That just seems like a distant memory now. I’ve now gone 30 days with not a drop of precipitation in Roanoke and it’s been hot. This is just miserable. The new normal it seems.

Honestly im getting closer and closer to feeling like this... If we don't have a way better winter this year up here where we average 9 inches the questions are going to mount even more. Like I remember when October used to mean floods and to not even rain a drop is just beyond words

But back to winter we've had plenty of 2 winters back to back being bad but not a third

[Kirby68]

I have lived in North Texas my entire life of 56 years. September and especially October has always been my favorite time of the year because of football starting and also it being the end of summer. I remember the mid to late September pacific fronts blowing through always bringing storms and cooler weather. That just seems like a distant memory now. I’ve now gone 30 days with not a drop of precipitation in Roanoke and it’s been hot. This is just miserable. The new normal it seems.

Honestly im getting closer and closer to feeling like this... If we don't have a way better winter this year up here where we average 9 inches the questions are going to mount even more. Like I remember when October used to mean floods and to not even rain a drop is just beyond words

But back to winter we've had plenty of 2 winters back to back being bad but not a third

Yeah I mean climatology wise, October in NT is supposed to be like the 2nd or 3rd wettest month of the year. And there’s no rain in the 7 day forecast.

[Stratton23]

Scattered showers/ storms are likely to return to the forecast for many starting late next week, pattern change is coming that should at least support a daily chance for scattered activity, we will take what we can get

[CaptinCrunch]

I have lived in North Texas my entire life of 56 years. September and especially October has always been my favorite time of the year because of football starting and also it being the end of summer. I remember the mid to late September pacific fronts blowing through always bringing storms and cooler weather. That just seems like a distant memory now. I’ve now gone 30 days with not a drop of precipitation in Roanoke and it’s been hot. This is just miserable. The new normal it seems.

Honestly im getting closer and closer to feeling like this... If we don't have a way better winter this year up here where we average 9 inches the questions are going to mount even more. Like I remember when October used to mean floods and to not even rain a drop is just beyond words

But back to winter we've had plenty of 2 winters back to back being bad but not a third

Yeah I mean climatology wise, October in NT is supposed to be like the 2nd or 3rd wettest month of the year. And there’s no rain in the 7 day forecast.

You are correct Kirby68, October is our 3rd wettest month behind April and May. Usually the faucet in Fall gets turned on late September and runs till November shutoff.

[CaptinCrunch]

Scattered showers/ storms are likely to return to the forecast for many starting late next week, pattern change is coming that should at least support a daily chance for scattered activity, we will take what we can get

A progressive shortwave trough traversing the Midwest will
send a weak backdoor cold front towards North Texas heading into
Friday, while surface high pressure settles across the Great
Lakes region in its wake. The boundary itself will offer little/no
temperature contrast, but the attendant shift to backed easterly
winds and slightly higher dewpoints in the front`s proximity may
shave a few degrees off of highs heading into the upcoming
weekend. This front should stall through parts of the Texoma
region, and a small percentage of guidance (20-30%) suggests a
potential for rain showers to develop nearby on Saturday. We`ll
retain some low PoPs for our northeastern counties, although
measurable precipitation will be rather unlikely. The vast
majority of the CWA is expected to remain dry through the
entirety of the extended forecast.

Ensemble guidance favors a pattern shift to a deep western CONUS
trough heading into the early portion of next week. During its
slow multi-day establishment across the Intermountain West, it
will renew stronger southerly flow for us locally, leading to
richer Gulf moisture return and daily morning stratus intrusions
with increased cloud cover overall. However, warm advection within
this southerly flow regime will continue to support well above
normal temperatures with highs mostly in the 80s. Later in the
week, this trough and an attendant front may finally encroach on
North Texas itself which would offer a cooldown and some rain
chances for the very end of the month of October. However, there
it still quite a bit of uncertainty on this trough`s evolution
beyond day 6/7.

-Stalley

[weatherdude1108]

I know these CPC maps tend to change at the drop of a hat, sometimes daily, but it's still nice to see a shift from much below normal precip odds to near/above normal odds.

Looks more hopeful at least (as of 10/22/2024). More model consistency than yesterday, which means they're latching onto something(?).

[Brent]

I know these CPC maps tend to change at the drop of a hat, sometimes daily, but it's still nice to see a shift from much below normal precip odds to near/above normal odds.

Looks more hopeful at least (as of 10/22/2024). More model consistency than yesterday, which means they're latching onto something(?).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

I will say the guy I follow up here who is usually good at this stuff says this time it's a real pattern change. He never was convinced the other times

I certainly hope his track record holds up

[Ntxw]

The ultimate problem is cold has been unable to build with any significant quality. We have had some delivery patterns, and even with a pattern change if there's no substantial cold air to deliver, it will just be muted. Not talking about 'modeled' cold air, but real on the ground anomalous cold.

[Stratton23]

Ntwx we wont be able to get cold air to build in our source region with the persistent gulf of alaskan troughing, until that gets replaced by ridging its gonna be hard to build up any cold air, if we want any cooler air down the road, we need a trough to dig in the central US

[snownado]

Tomorrow's record high for DFW is 91*F, which is also the forecast high.

[Stratton23]

Hit a high of 90 here today, absolutely miserable, i swear if we dont get some big winter storm in the winter, im going to go Rocky Balboa on Mother Nature!

[Throckmorton]

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation index in September 2024 dropped to -3.54, which is the third–lowest on record. The lowest was -3.65 in July 1950 and April 1859.

[Brent]

Well the news showing average temps by the end of the forecast

Yeah that's right... Average high is already 60s next week

[Stratton23]

GFS has an absolutely insane -NAO block over greenland, really slowing down the pattern over NA

[cstrunk]

Two days later and not much has changed for my NE TX wedding forecast (11/2). Looks to be in the 80's and no rain.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The never ending summer continues..