Texas Spring 2026

[JDawg512]

EPS looks decent, but some other ensemble guidance is backing off on QPF for portions of the state, GEFS/ AIFS ensembles arent impressed at all, Euro AIFS ensemble keeps the heaviest QPF in NE Texas with maybe up to 1.5 inches across central and se texas, better hope the EPS is right , because a lot of the other guidance really isnt overly excited, looks more like a chance of scattered activity than more wide spread heavy rains to me

Exactly my point and that would correlate with our recent past rain events. Really I do not see any major changes anytime soon. We are in a vicious cycle of hotter and drier. I was talking ro a friend yesterday and we discussed that the overall climate has shifted to a more arid climate which sucks but for decades we have been sounding the alarm. Every article about this recent heat wave mentions that it is impossible that we have reached such a wide spread heatwave so early in the year without human caused climate change. This is the reality and I will continue to point this out in the future. Unless my rain gauge ends up with several inches, I am not getting excited.

[Cpv17]

EPS looks decent, but some other ensemble guidance is backing off on QPF for portions of the state, GEFS/ AIFS ensembles arent impressed at all, Euro AIFS ensemble keeps the heaviest QPF in NE Texas with maybe up to 1.5 inches across central and se texas, better hope the EPS is right , because a lot of the other guidance really isnt overly excited, looks more like a chance of scattered activity than more wide spread heavy rains to me

Yeah, I started noticing guidance backing off a few days ago but the CPC outlooks still look good, at least. I’m not as confident as I once was, though. Thinking it’ll be more of the 30-40% chance of afternoon/evening pop ups than anything widespread.

[South Texas Storms]

EPS looks decent, but some other ensemble guidance is backing off on QPF for portions of the state, GEFS/ AIFS ensembles arent impressed at all, Euro AIFS ensemble keeps the heaviest QPF in NE Texas with maybe up to 1.5 inches across central and se texas, better hope the EPS is right , because a lot of the other guidance really isnt overly excited, looks more like a chance of scattered activity than more wide spread heavy rains to me

Yeah, I started noticing guidance backing off a few days ago but the CPC outlooks still look good, at least. I’m not as confident as I once was, though. Thinking it’ll be more of the 30-40% chance of afternoon/evening pop ups than anything widespread.

The good news is next week should just be the start of us entering into a wetter pattern that could potentially last for much of April and into May. The Euro and GFS Weeklies have been indicating this for several runs now.

[Stratton23]

Im just hoping this wet pattern ends up going through summer, what we dont want is april and may to be wet and then the faucet completely shuts off in summer, 3-4 months of summer heat and mainly dry weather would just easily wipe out whatever rains we see in april and may and we end up with severe drought conditions again, fingers crossed this summer ends up similar to last year

[wxman22]

Im just hoping this wet pattern ends up going through summer, what we dont want is april and may to be wet and then the faucet completely shuts off in summer, 3-4 months of summer heat and mainly dry weather would just easily wipe out whatever rains we see in april and may and we end up with severe drought conditions again, fingers crossed this summer ends up similar to last year

You need a wet Spring to increase your chances of having a good Summer. Especially considering the low soil moisture content right now, if this Spring ended up dry Summer would more than likely not be pretty.

Also the pattern for *early April looks more conductive for severe weather in traditional tornado alley, than it does a widespread heavy rain event.

[Brent]

I wanna see us set as many record lows as we've had record highs the last 6 months. Insanity

Bet it will never happen

[txtwister78]

EPS looks decent, but some other ensemble guidance is backing off on QPF for portions of the state, GEFS/ AIFS ensembles arent impressed at all, Euro AIFS ensemble keeps the heaviest QPF in NE Texas with maybe up to 1.5 inches across central and se texas, better hope the EPS is right , because a lot of the other guidance really isnt overly excited, looks more like a chance of scattered activity than more wide spread heavy rains to me

Exactly my point and that would correlate with our recent past rain events. Really I do not see any major changes anytime soon. We are in a vicious cycle of hotter and drier. I was talking ro a friend yesterday and we discussed that the overall climate has shifted to a more arid climate which sucks but for decades we have been sounding the alarm. Every article about this recent heat wave mentions that it is impossible that we have reached such a wide spread heatwave so early in the year without human caused climate change. This is the reality and I will continue to point this out in the future. Unless my rain gauge ends up with several inches, I am not getting excited.

Respectfully disagree. We are still 7 days out so things can and will change. The point at this range isn't really about focusing or pinpointing exact locations as it relates to any given amount of QPF/total rainfall among various ensembles.

The point at this range is to highlight the pattern change/signal that introduces the prospects of rainfall across a good portion of the state. Obviously the details will get ironed out as we get closer but at least it's a better signal than the alternative which would be a.continuation of what we have now? That's unlikely thankfully as we move into April.

In regards to the climate change debate, it's been hotter in SA before. 1991 we had a string of 90 degree days including topping out at 100 degrees March 6th 1991. I doubt anyone was talking about climate change then. Patterns repeat and so nothing "alarming" in my opinion about an early heat wave other than yes with a string of La Ninas's four of the last 5 years it should come as no surprise that yes we really need the rain and yes it's been hotter as a result throughout.

[Texoz]

EPS looks decent, but some other ensemble guidance is backing off on QPF for portions of the state, GEFS/ AIFS ensembles arent impressed at all, Euro AIFS ensemble keeps the heaviest QPF in NE Texas with maybe up to 1.5 inches across central and se texas, better hope the EPS is right , because a lot of the other guidance really isnt overly excited, looks more like a chance of scattered activity than more wide spread heavy rains to me

Exactly my point and that would correlate with our recent past rain events. Really I do not see any major changes anytime soon. We are in a vicious cycle of hotter and drier. I was talking ro a friend yesterday and we discussed that the overall climate has shifted to a more arid climate which sucks but for decades we have been sounding the alarm. Every article about this recent heat wave mentions that it is impossible that we have reached such a wide spread heatwave so early in the year without human caused climate change. This is the reality and I will continue to point this out in the future. Unless my rain gauge ends up with several inches, I am not getting excited.

Respectfully disagree. We are still 7 days out so things can and will change. The point at this range isn't really about focusing or pinpointing exact locations as it relates to any given amount of QPF/total rainfall among various ensembles.

The point at this range is to highlight the pattern change/signal that introduces the prospects of rainfall across a good portion of the state. Obviously the details will get ironed out as we get closer but at least it's a better signal than the alternative which would be a.continuation of what we have now? That's unlikely thankfully as we move into April.

In regards to the climate change debate, it's been hotter in SA before. 1991 we had a string of 90 degree days including topping out at 100 degrees March 6th 1991. I doubt anyone was talking about climate change then. Patterns repeat and so nothing "alarming" in my opinion about an early heat wave other than yes with a string of La Ninas's four of the last 5 years it should come as no surprise that yes we really need the rain and yes it's been hotter as a result throughout.

Was curious about that March 1991 temps you mentioned so I looked it up for Austin. What the heck was going on? Really wild temp swings.

https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cit ... /year-1991

Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches)
March 1 82 56 0.05
March 2 82 56 0.00
March 3 68 44 0.00
March 4 91 44 0.00
March 5 91 50 0.00
March 6 96 52 0.00
March 7 68 51 0.00

[Quixotic]

Florida is going to have fierce fire conditions if things don’t change.

[rwfromkansas]

Weird seeing Florida dry. But, it shows everybody can have drought.

[TomballEd]

Weird seeing Florida dry. But, it shows everybody can have drought.

5 or 10 years ago the July NASCAR race in Daytona was cancelled because of thick smoke from nearby wildfires. Late spring to early autumn is the 'rainy' season in Florida. They might be ok if rainy season does arrive. Whatever year that was, rainy season didn't happen or started late.

[TomballEd]

0Z Euro isn't bone dry through day 10 in STX but it feels like the models keep pushing back the coming rainy period to past 10 days. This feels like the GFS and a Caribbean hurricane always just past Day 10 that always stays just past 10 days day after day before the model finally gives up.

[Stratton23]

Yup . ive noticed this for the past 2 days now, the wet pattern keeps getting delayed on guidance, ive seen this game before

[JDawg512]

EPS looks decent, but some other ensemble guidance is backing off on QPF for portions of the state, GEFS/ AIFS ensembles arent impressed at all, Euro AIFS ensemble keeps the heaviest QPF in NE Texas with maybe up to 1.5 inches across central and se texas, better hope the EPS is right , because a lot of the other guidance really isnt overly excited, looks more like a chance of scattered activity than more wide spread heavy rains to me

Exactly my point and that would correlate with our recent past rain events. Really I do not see any major changes anytime soon. We are in a vicious cycle of hotter and drier. I was talking ro a friend yesterday and we discussed that the overall climate has shifted to a more arid climate which sucks but for decades we have been sounding the alarm. Every article about this recent heat wave mentions that it is impossible that we have reached such a wide spread heatwave so early in the year without human caused climate change. This is the reality and I will continue to point this out in the future. Unless my rain gauge ends up with several inches, I am not getting excited.

Respectfully disagree. We are still 7 days out so things can and will change. The point at this range isn't really about focusing or pinpointing exact locations as it relates to any given amount of QPF/total rainfall among various ensembles.

The point at this range is to highlight the pattern change/signal that introduces the prospects of rainfall across a good portion of the state. Obviously the details will get ironed out as we get closer but at least it's a better signal than the alternative which would be a.continuation of what we have now? That's unlikely thankfully as we move into April.

In regards to the climate change debate, it's been hotter in SA before. 1991 we had a string of 90 degree days including topping out at 100 degrees March 6th 1991. I doubt anyone was talking about climate change then. Patterns repeat and so nothing "alarming" in my opinion about an early heat wave other than yes with a string of La Ninas's four of the last 5 years it should come as no surprise that yes we really need the rain and yes it's been hotter as a result throughout.

Its not that we never saw any days that hot but we did not see such a long stretch as we are seeing now, let alone a good chunk of the United States. We just broke the all time record for hottest temp (110 in Arizona) last week so early in the year. This heat wave is wide spread and it is unlike anything we have seen since records began. I remember my birthdays (happens to be today) even in the late 90s where temps were cool, I especially remember 96 as it was chilly and damp. More times than not before 2000 the weather was cooler and wetter since 2000 and especially after 2010 my birthdays were hotter and drier. Also we were definitely talking about climate change in 91 however at that time we were told it was decades away or past our lifetime. Well it is happening now and speeding up. My studies were of Environmental Sciences and climate and the science is absolutely clear about this. Now putting all that aside for a moment, I hope you are right about the rain chances but even EWX is not very bullish on rain chances through the extended.

[txtwister78]

Exactly my point and that would correlate with our recent past rain events. Really I do not see any major changes anytime soon. We are in a vicious cycle of hotter and drier. I was talking ro a friend yesterday and we discussed that the overall climate has shifted to a more arid climate which sucks but for decades we have been sounding the alarm. Every article about this recent heat wave mentions that it is impossible that we have reached such a wide spread heatwave so early in the year without human caused climate change. This is the reality and I will continue to point this out in the future. Unless my rain gauge ends up with several inches, I am not getting excited.

Respectfully disagree. We are still 7 days out so things can and will change. The point at this range isn't really about focusing or pinpointing exact locations as it relates to any given amount of QPF/total rainfall among various ensembles.

The point at this range is to highlight the pattern change/signal that introduces the prospects of rainfall across a good portion of the state. Obviously the details will get ironed out as we get closer but at least it's a better signal than the alternative which would be a.continuation of what we have now? That's unlikely thankfully as we move into April.

In regards to the climate change debate, it's been hotter in SA before. 1991 we had a string of 90 degree days including topping out at 100 degrees March 6th 1991. I doubt anyone was talking about climate change then. Patterns repeat and so nothing "alarming" in my opinion about an early heat wave other than yes with a string of La Ninas's four of the last 5 years it should come as no surprise that yes we really need the rain and yes it's been hotter as a result throughout.

Its not that we never saw any days that hot but we did not see such a long stretch as we are seeing now, let alone a good chunk of the United States. We just broke the all time record for hottest temp (110 in Arizona) last week so early in the year. This heat wave is wide spread and it is unlike anything we have seen since records began. I remember my birthdays (happens to be today) even in the late 90s where temps were cool, I especially remember 96 as it was chilly and damp. More times than not before 2000 the weather was cooler and wetter since 2000 and especially after 2010 my birthdays were hotter and drier. Also we were definitely talking about climate change in 91 however at that time we were told it was decades away or past our lifetime. Well it is happening now and speeding up. My studies were of Environmental Sciences and climate and the science is absolutely clear about this. Now putting all that aside for a moment, I hope you are right about the rain chances but even EWX is not very bullish on rain chances through the extended.

Again without really getting too into the weeds on this particular topic, I would point out the term global warming has now semmingly evolved into "climate change" over the years as a result of some incredible blockbuster winters like oh say February 2021 for example(lol), unfortunately the "science" behind all this has become overly politicized and more importantly financially profitable to push in certain sectors. I'll leave it at that for the purposes of this forum.

As to the actual weather aspect, will just have to agree to disagree in that again weather is cyclical my friend and while you may say "I remember when " here or there in my lifetime, I can easily come back and point to time periods as I did in 1991 when it was actually hotter (even earlier in March) but again there are other factors at play that contribute to temp variations at any given time. We've been in a perma drought essentially here since 2021 which is why I pointed out the la nina factor ( 4 out of the last 5 years). That absolutely plays a big factor in temps and climate obviously as a whole. The population and expansion of urban cores within cities/infrastructure plays a role etc and so is our weather impacted by man-made variables that evolve absolutely but I don't see this as "alarming" or earth shattering by any stretch anymore than what happened in Feb 2021. Mother nature deserves a lot more "credit" I would argue than what some for other reasons are willing to give her.

I think April is going to be a great month to cash in on some much needed rainfall. Happy birthday btw.

[TomballEd]

I think there is a fair amount of hysteria about climate change, 10 year predictions of ice free poles and large sea level rises that don't happen.


OTOH. there seems a lot more red than blue on SST anomaly maps the past few years. It may not be all anthropogenic but there sure seems to be oceanic warming.

[Ntxw]

I think there is a fair amount of hysteria about climate change, 10 year predictions of ice free poles and large sea level rises that don't happen.


OTOH. there seems a lot more red than blue on SST anomaly maps the past few years. It may not be all anthropogenic but there sure seems to be oceanic warming.

The answer is usually somewhere in the middle. We have gone through 10-15+ years of very low solar cycles that predictions were cooling but most sites have seen some of their warmest years since and been trending upward, and the state as a whole. We can debate back and forth why, it doesn't change that it is happening. The last below normal year for the state of Texas was 1996.

[Ntxw]

WPC maps are looking more promising for rain, it's not a lot yet but you can definitely see the shift. It won't be a flip of a switch but gradual increase as we enter April. -SOI is starting to kick in so the big WWB is slowly effecting the Pacific pattern. We will see more significant -SOI into the month of April which will likely signal a coupling of El Nino, things will progress quicker as May-Aug kick in. It may be like 1997 when the rains come late spring into summer.

[Brent]

Exactly my point and that would correlate with our recent past rain events. Really I do not see any major changes anytime soon. We are in a vicious cycle of hotter and drier. I was talking ro a friend yesterday and we discussed that the overall climate has shifted to a more arid climate which sucks but for decades we have been sounding the alarm. Every article about this recent heat wave mentions that it is impossible that we have reached such a wide spread heatwave so early in the year without human caused climate change. This is the reality and I will continue to point this out in the future. Unless my rain gauge ends up with several inches, I am not getting excited.

Respectfully disagree. We are still 7 days out so things can and will change. The point at this range isn't really about focusing or pinpointing exact locations as it relates to any given amount of QPF/total rainfall among various ensembles.

The point at this range is to highlight the pattern change/signal that introduces the prospects of rainfall across a good portion of the state. Obviously the details will get ironed out as we get closer but at least it's a better signal than the alternative which would be a.continuation of what we have now? That's unlikely thankfully as we move into April.

In regards to the climate change debate, it's been hotter in SA before. 1991 we had a string of 90 degree days including topping out at 100 degrees March 6th 1991. I doubt anyone was talking about climate change then. Patterns repeat and so nothing "alarming" in my opinion about an early heat wave other than yes with a string of La Ninas's four of the last 5 years it should come as no surprise that yes we really need the rain and yes it's been hotter as a result throughout.

Its not that we never saw any days that hot but we did not see such a long stretch as we are seeing now, let alone a good chunk of the United States. We just broke the all time record for hottest temp (110 in Arizona) last week so early in the year. This heat wave is wide spread and it is unlike anything we have seen since records began. I remember my birthdays (happens to be today) even in the late 90s where temps were cool, I especially remember 96 as it was chilly and damp. More times than not before 2000 the weather was cooler and wetter since 2000 and especially after 2010 my birthdays were hotter and drier. Also we were definitely talking about climate change in 91 however at that time we were told it was decades away or past our lifetime. Well it is happening now and speeding up. My studies were of Environmental Sciences and climate and the science is absolutely clear about this. Now putting all that aside for a moment, I hope you are right about the rain chances but even EWX is not very bullish on rain chances through the extended.

Right maybe it's not totally unheard of in Texas and Oklahoma but more broadly Wichita and the state of Kansas just had it's hottest March day ever today

It's been an even worse nightmare out west too. Ski resorts closing early because theres no snow. Places in Colorado shattering record highs by 10 degrees. How many times has Phoenix already hit 100?

Let's not forget that we did that at Christmas already even if this is unheard of that was. Tulsa shattered the December record by 7 degrees. Look I've never been one to believe in climate change but this is crazy. Maybe it's just the endless La Nina which is crazy in itself but what if it's not

[Edwards Limestone]

Rain is always 7-10 days out. When it does arrive it underperforms.