Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Hunter tour thru Caribbean and Centralamerica

Among the places that this tour will visit are Puerto Rico,Antigua,San Salvador and Mexico.



NOAA and the U.S. Air Force Reserve will host a series of public events from March 18 to 27 in six coastal communities in Bermuda, Mexico and the Caribbean to urge residents to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season.

Tours of the Air Force Reserve Command’s WC-130J “hurricane hunter” aircraft will be available to residents and have an opportunity to meet U.S. National Hurricane Center director Bill Read; deputy director Ed Rappaport; senior hurricane specialist Lixion Avila; Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch meteorologist Jorge Aguirre-Echevarria; and personnel from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the 403rd Wing.

“After a relatively quiet 2009 season, we don’t want people to get complacent. We want coastal residents to be ready for the next hurricane season, and that’s why we’re on this awareness tour before the season begins on June 1,” said Read. “We want to save lives through awareness and preparedness.”

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... icane.html

[Macrocane]

It's nice that they're going to visit us although I think that after last year we're very aware of the tropical hazards in both Pacific and Atlantic oceans, even a "weak" low pressure system can cause serious damage.

Changing the topic, yesterday morning was the coolest morning in several salvadoran cities since mid-January! although we didn't have northerly winds. Some examples:

Santa Ana 14.5 °C/58.1 °F, the average for March is 18 °C/64 °F
San Salvador 15.6 °C/60.1 °F, the average for March is 18.5 °C/65 °F
San Miguel 17.9 °C/64.2, the average for March is 20 °C/68 °F

I have posed observations from other Centralamerican cities on the last post of this thread http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=1971106#p1971106

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST WED MAR 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT OVR THE LEEWARDS WILL DISSIPATE BY
FRI. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE WEEKEND PROMOTING A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OVERCAST SKIES TODAY HAVE INHIBITED SHRAS FROM
DEVELOPING. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH
ISOLD SHRAS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF PR AND USVI
UNDER EASTERLY FLOW. A FEW MORE BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WRN HALF OF PR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW BRIEF SHRAS OTHERWISE
MAINLY DRY WITH STILL LOTS OF CLOUDS ESPECIALLY EAST.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE SHOWS SUFFICIENT DRYING FRI TO
ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON AFTER MORNING CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHRAS. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND
AND PROMOTE WARMER TEMPS WHILE ALSO PUTTING A STRONG LID ON
CONVECTION. SO A REAL NICE WARM AND DRY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED.
MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL HOLD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK KEEPING US DRY AND ANY FRONTS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF US.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT JSJ AND USVI AIRPORTS THROUGH THU MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED NEXT FIVE DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FT IN NNE SWELLS THROUGH SAT MAINLY
OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER
SAT ALL WATERS.

[cycloneye]

Updated discussion by NWS San Juan


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
938 PM AST WED MAR 10 2010

.UPDATE...A BAND OF PATCHY RAIN FORMED JUST AFTER SUNSET FOLLOWED
BY SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF MOST OF
PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER
TONIGHT...BUT FOR NOW THE CELLS ARE MOVING WITH THE FLOW TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST. THE 00Z SOUNDING REVEALS THAT THE FRONT IS ABOUT 5
THOUSAND FEET OVER SAN JUAN WHERE LOWER LEVEL EAST WINDS END AND
WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN. MOISTURE...HOWEVER ENDS AT JUST ABOVE
12 THOUSAND FEET AND THIS SOUNDING IS QUITE STABLE SO DO NOT
EXPECT VERY MUCH RAIN OVER LAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WRF MODEL SEEMS TO BE THE CLOSEST NUMERICAL SOLUTION
TO THE RAIN PATTERN THAT IS JUST NOW SETTING UP IN THE MONA
CHANNEL AND THE ATLANTIC AND EVEN THIS MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE RAIN
TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AND LACKS THE COVERAGE THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
SEEING. NEVERTHELESS THE WRF BRINGS THE RAIN INTO THE NORTH COAST LATE
IN THE NIGHT...OR EARLY MORNING SO FEEL JUSTIFIED IN RAISING THE
POPS...TO REFLECT THE FACT THAT SOME PEOPLE MAY SEE MEASURABLE
RAIN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND POSSIBLY THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AMOUNTS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL BE ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS IF RAIN FALLS AT ALL THERE. CHANGES TO THE LONGER TERM
GRIDS WERE MINOR AND CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA THAT MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST MORE LIGHT RAIN
COULD BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK BUT MODELS ARE NO LONGER RAPIDLY
DEEPENING A LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND HENCE THE FRONT THAT
WAS TO COME THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND IS NO LONGER A CLEAR
PRESENCE. THIS MAY CHANGE BACK AGAIN...BUT THAT IS LESS LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED AROUND 10 MILES NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT POSSIBLE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TJSJ
AND USVI AIRPORTS THROUGH THU MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...A RE-EXAMINATION OF THE SEAS SURROUNDING THE LOCAL
WATERS SHOWS VERY SMALL SWELL OF LESS THAN 2 FEET...WITH MAINLY
SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES OF 6 SECONDS. HAVE TAKEN DOWN ALL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...BUT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND PASSAGES.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Rain is falling while I type this post.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST THU MAR 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TODAY AND TOMORROW. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS INDUCING
AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MOISTURE
IN COMBINATION WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...BUT NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL FINALLY LOSE IDENTITY WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS BREAK IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON AND LATE
EVENING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LATEST TJSJ 11/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW UP TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTWARD AND STRONGER AT 5K FEET AND ALOFT. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY FRIDAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
WEEKEND...PRODUCING AGAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST SOME
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MOISTURE
IN COMBINATION WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...BUT NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL FINALLY LOSE IDENTITY WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS BREAK IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON AND LATE
EVENING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LATEST TJSJ 11/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW UP TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTWARD AND STRONGER AT 5K FEET AND ALOFT. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY FRIDAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
WEEKEND...PRODUCING AGAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST SOME
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY MID WEEK.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
757 AM AST THU MAR 11 2010

PRC029-031-087-119-127-111500-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0033.100311T1157Z-100311T1500Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
757 AM AST THU MAR 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...SAN JUAN...LOIZA AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 1100 AM AST

* AT 753 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE ADVISORY AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT UP TO
THREE INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN THE LOIZA AREA. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN
COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS...UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.

AN URBAN AND FLOOD STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS FLOODING OF
STREETS...UNDERPASSES...LOW LYING AREAS OR STORM DRAINS. THIS TYPE
OF FLOODING IS MAINLY AN INCONVENIENCE AND IS GENERALLY NOT LIFE
THREATENING.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
922 AM AST THU MAR 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
NAGUABO
CEIBA
FAJARDO

* UNTIL 1215 PM AST

* AT 912 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PARAISO AREA IN FAJARDO WITH
UP TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN ESTIMATED BY RADAR. IN ADDITION...USGS
GAGES ON THE FAJARDO RIVER INDICATE THAT THE RIVER IS RISING
RAPIDLY WITH THE RIVER LIKELY TO COME OUT OF ITS BANKS. PEOPLE
TRAVELING ALONG ROUTES 53...975...976 AND 977 IN THE PARAISO AREA
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO SUDDEN SURGES IN WATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC037-053-089-119-111815-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0005.100311T1518Z-100311T1815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1118 AM AST THU MAR 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
LUQUILLO
CEIBA
FAJARDO
RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 215 PM AST

* AT 1114 AM AST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED ROUTE 191 THAT GOES INTO THE
EL YUNQUE NATIONAL RAIN FOREST FLOODED. RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE
VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE AREA NEARLY STATIONARY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

[cycloneye]

Today,there have been more flood warnings than when the front moved thru Puerto Rico last Saturday.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
141 PM AST THU MAR 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
LUQUILLO
NAGUABO
CEIBA
FAJARDO
RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 134 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL FALLING OVER THE WARNED AREA WITH
MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY. FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE RIO
GRANDE AREA. THE FAJARDO RIVER HAS ALSO COME OUT OF ITS BANKS WITH
HIGHWAY 53 LIKELY TO BECOME IMPASSABLE SHORTLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

A drying trend is forecast for this weekend.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 PM AST THU MAR 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS CONTINUES TO LIFT
OUT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT...ELONGATED RIDGE SHOULD BECOME
THE DOMINANT WEATHER LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS WEST NORTHWEST TO JUST SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. APPARENT PROXIMITY OF TAIL END
OF OLD BOUNDARY TO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE...MID TO UPPER VENTILATION...WEAK
STEERING...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND NORMAL LOCAL EFFECTS...RESULTED
IN MANY HOURS OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF PUERTO
RICO TODAY...THAT RESULTED IN AREAS OF URBAN AND FLASH FLOODING.
BY EARLY AFTERNOON..."NORMAL" DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS DEVELOPED
IN OTHER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AND END BY ABOUT
11/23Z...LEAVING SOME CLOUDINESS AND NORMAL NOCTURNALLY INDUCED
SHOWERS AROUND.

THEN...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH AN OVERALL "DRIER"
PATTERN IS INDICATED...EXPECT DIURNALLY AND NOCTURNALLY INDUCED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EACH DAY...IN THE MORE FAVORED AREAS IN A
GENERAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED...
MAINLY OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO THROUGH
ABOUT 11/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT.

[tropicana]

While the most northern island of the Eastern Caribbean chain of islands had rainfall and flooding...
the most southern isle continued on in heat and drought conditions:

UPDATE: Thu Mar 11 2010

DAY NO 36
Feb 3-March 11 **and counting ... no measurable rainfall across trinidad and tobago

Intense heat continued to be the order of the day.
The high temperature at Piarco International Airport, Trinidad Thursday afternoon reached record territory yet again.

It hit 35.2C 95F at Piarco for the high as sunshine continued, only dimmed through Saharan dust haze and smoke from bushfires burning rampantly on the hillsides.
Since Feb 23, the temperature has reached or exceeded 33.7C 93F everyday, and many of those days reached between 94F to 95F..this is a period of at 17 days, quite unprecedented to maintain such heatwave conditions, even for the tropics.
The hottest temperatures in this spell have been:-
96F 35.7C Feb 24
97F 36.3C Feb 25
96F 35.7C March 8

The last time the temp failed to reach 90F was back on Feb 5...or 35 days ago.

-justin-

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 PM AST THU MAR 11 2010

PRC037-053-089-103-119-112145-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-100311T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LUQUILLO PR-NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-FAJARDO PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
350 PM AST THU MAR 11 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM AST FOR RIO
GRANDE...FAJARDO...CEIBA...NAGUABO AND LUQUILLO MUNICIPALITIES...

AT 336 PM AST...A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED
CONSIDERABLE LOW LYING INUNDATIONS IN THE AREA JUST WEST OF HACIENDA
MARGARITA NEAR HIGHWAY 3 OVER THE WARNED AREA. THE RIO FAJARDO IS
OUT OF ITS BANKS AT PARAISO AND WAS RISING WHERE THE FAJARDO RIVER
CROSSES HIGHWAY 9.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

FLOOD WATERS ARE MOVING DOWN RIO FAJARDO FROM THE HEADWATERS TO THE
CARIBBEAN. THE FLOOD CREST IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 5 PM
AST.

Thank you Justin for posting the data about the drought in the Southern islands of the Caribbean.Keep the information comming.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 AM AST FRI MAR 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS CONTINUES TO LIFT
OUT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT...ELONGATED RIDGE SHOULD BECOME
THE DOMINANT WEATHER LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SHOWERS
ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE LAST
FEW DAYS. WINDS HAVE SHIFT MORE EASTERLY TODAY...AND ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
SHIFT IN THE WINDS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S COAST...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...AND IS
EXPECTED BY COMPUTER MODEL TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM BY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AS AN ELONGATED RIDGE SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS
ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES
WITH NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATIONS DUE TO LOW CIG AND SHRA AFTER 12/17Z ESPECIALLY ACROSS
TJSJ...TJPS AND TJMZ. TJSJ 12/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY
WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 5K FEET...BECOMING WEST NORTHWESTERLY
AND STRONGER ABOVE 5K FEET AND ALOFT.

[tropicana]

TRINIDAD UPDATE
UPDATE: Fri Mar 12 2010

DAY NO 37
Feb 3-March 12 **and counting ... no measurable rainfall across trinidad and tobago

Light showers have gotten tantalizingly close to the south shores of Trinidad this morning, but a dry atmosphere has fizzled those showers.
Piarco International Airport, Trinidad didn't fail either to continue the heatwave trend, with Friday afternoon's top temperature at 34.7C 95F! Sounds like a broken record...and is another broken record...as the hottest March ever recorded, continues.
Since Feb 23, the temperature has reached or exceeded 33.7C 93F every day ( a string of 18 days consecutively) and most of those days, reached 94F and 95F....unusual, even by Caribbean standards.

[cycloneye]

Dry weather and warm temperatures return.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST FRI MAR 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN
WILL BUILD EWD DURING THE WEEKEND PROMOTING A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH MONDAY. A CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ATMS HAS DRIED OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AS EVIDENCED BY THE
LACK OF SHRA ACTIVITY. LATEST ACARS DATA ALSO SHOWS THAT A SUBSIDENCE
CAP CONTINUES TO STRENGHTEN/LOWER ACROSS THE AREA. ANTICIPATING
THAT CURR CLOUD CVR WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. KUDOS TO THE MODELS WHICH HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING THIS DRYING SINCE LAST WEEKEND.

MID UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN WILL BUILD EWD OVR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF MARCH...90F READINGS
BECOME MORE COMMON ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. SO I STILL CAN`T RULED
OUT AN ISOLD SHRA ACROSS THE NW BUT NO MORE THAN ISOLD CVRG IS
EXPECTED.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CDFNT THAT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA NEXT WED. LATEST NCEP GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FRONT TO THE
NORTH OF US WHILE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WED AND
LIFTS IT BACK TO THE NORTH THU. HAVE INCREASED POPS/SKY GRIDS DURING
THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BASED ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAVING THE FRONT
OR SHEARLINE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NO SIG WX NEXT FOUR DAYS.
CLEARING EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A CDFNT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA
WED WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 INDICATES 2-METER SEAS AND A 1428Z ASCAT PASS
INDICATED SOLID 20-KT WINDS OVR AMZ710. GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND WITH GRADIENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RELAX
THIS EVENING WILL FORGO A SCA FOR NOW AS SCA CONDITIONS VERY
MARGINAL AND EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF. DIMINISHING SEAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

[HUC]

Finally rain in my location ( 7mm ),and in several other places of Guadeloupe and also in Martinica...Hope that the humidity is slowly developping over the central and south caribbean...But march is climatologically the driest month .
As always:WAIT AND SEE

[Gustywind]

Finally rain in my location ( 7mm ),and in several other places of Guadeloupe and also in Martinica...Hope that the humidity is slowly developping over the central and south caribbean...But march is climatologically the driest month .
As always:WAIT AND SEE

It's terrific HUC only 7mm let's as you said wait and see

[tropicana]

Regional Roundup Fri Mar 12 2010

Piarco, Trinidad 34.7C 95F
Crown Point, Tobago 30.4C 86F
Point Salines, Grenada 30.0C 86F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.9C 87F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.1C 88F
Hewanorra, St Lucia 31.5C 89F
Le Lamentin, Martinique 29.9C 86F 6.6mm
La Raizet, Guadeloupe 29.5C 85F 10.8mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 30.1C 86F 0.2mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.4C 83F 0.4mm
West End, Anguilla 28.9C 84F
Charlotte Amalie, St Thomas 29.4C 85F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 27.8C 82F 5mm

Showers were confined today to the central Lesser Antilles and scattered across the Northern Leewards. Much needed rain fell in Guadeloupe and Martinque...but other islands continued to see dry conditions.
Isolated showers were noted in the waters south of Trinidad.

[Macrocane]

It's nice to see that some places have seen the much needed rain.

Here in El Salvador March is the third driest month with an average of only 9mm (0.35 inches), March is also on of the warmest months. This week had been cooler than normal but today was the warmest of the week even this night has been the warmest with 24 °C/75 °F the previous night we've had 21 °C/70°F at this hour. A cold front is approaching Central America tonight so maybe tomorrow night will be cooler and by next wednesday a stronger cold front will affect us so we're going to have a couple of cool days before the worst of the warm season begins.