2008 Severe Weather Thread
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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HarlequinBoy
- Category 5
- Posts: 1400
- Age: 34
- Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:57 am
- Location: Memphis
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Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
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HarlequinBoy
- Category 5
- Posts: 1400
- Age: 34
- Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:57 am
- Location: Memphis
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: SVR WX: MDT risk/SE Texas/15%H Tornado/30%H Hail/45% Wind
Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
LAC037-077-125-161315-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0025.080216T1244Z-080216T1315Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
644 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...
CENTRAL POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ST. FRANCISVILLE...
* UNTIL 715 AM CST
* AT 639 AM CST...LAW ENFORCEMENT IN POINTEE COUPEE PARISH REPORTED
A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR MORGANZA...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW
ROADS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SEEK SAFE
SHELTER NOW!
LAT...LON 3086 9121 3070 9125 3068 9166 3083 9168
TIME...MOT...LOC 1244Z 266DEG 33KT 3076 9153
TORNADO WARNING
LAC037-077-125-161315-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0025.080216T1244Z-080216T1315Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
644 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...
CENTRAL POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ST. FRANCISVILLE...
* UNTIL 715 AM CST
* AT 639 AM CST...LAW ENFORCEMENT IN POINTEE COUPEE PARISH REPORTED
A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR MORGANZA...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW
ROADS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SEEK SAFE
SHELTER NOW!
LAT...LON 3086 9121 3070 9125 3068 9166 3083 9168
TIME...MOT...LOC 1244Z 266DEG 33KT 3076 9153
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 161050
LAZ000-TXZ000-161845-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS
SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...EASTERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW APPROACHING WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK EAST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE LOW...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF TEXAS AND MUCH OF
LOUISIANA.
A BAND OF JET STREAM WINDS...WITH SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH...
WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST TEXAS LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
EASTWARD.
THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS...DAYTIME HEATING
AND RICH MOISTURE INFLOW WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-LIVED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS KNOWN AS
SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS LIKELY WILL ORGANIZE INTO AN EXTENSIVE
NORTH-SOUTH LINE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS LATER TODAY...BEFORE CONTINUING EAST INTO LOUISIANA TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DESTRUCTIVE OUTFLOW WINDS AND VERY LARGE
HAIL.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..CORFIDI.. 02/16/2008
$$
WOUS40 KWNS 161050
LAZ000-TXZ000-161845-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS
SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...EASTERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW APPROACHING WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK EAST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE LOW...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF TEXAS AND MUCH OF
LOUISIANA.
A BAND OF JET STREAM WINDS...WITH SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH...
WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST TEXAS LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
EASTWARD.
THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS...DAYTIME HEATING
AND RICH MOISTURE INFLOW WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-LIVED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS KNOWN AS
SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS LIKELY WILL ORGANIZE INTO AN EXTENSIVE
NORTH-SOUTH LINE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS LATER TODAY...BEFORE CONTINUING EAST INTO LOUISIANA TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DESTRUCTIVE OUTFLOW WINDS AND VERY LARGE
HAIL.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..CORFIDI.. 02/16/2008
$$
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Re: SVR WX: MDT risk/SE Texas/15%H Tornado/30%H Hail/45% Wind
This is a dangerous weather event. Take actions when warnings are issued
0 likes
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Weatherfreak14
- Category 5
- Posts: 1383
- Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
- Location: Beaufort, SC
- Contact:
Re: SVR WX: MDT risk/SE Texas/15%H Tornado/30%H Hail/45% Wind
This is certianly going to be a very long day.
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Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
New SPC outlook continues MDT risk, but has diminished the tornado threat to 10% instead of 15% (but still hatched). According to the discussion, there will be the possibility of a few strong tornadoes across the upper TX coast this afternoon before the main storm mode transitions quickly into a squall line with widespread damaging winds as it heads eastward. All in all, it still looks like a very interesting and very stormy day ahead.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
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Re:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:New SPC outlook continues MDT risk, but has diminished the tornado threat to 10% instead of 15% (but still hatched). According to the discussion, there will be the possibility of a few strong tornadoes across the upper TX coast this afternoon before the main storm mode transitions quickly into a squall line with widespread damaging winds as it heads eastward. All in all, it still looks like a very interesting and very stormy day ahead.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Not much of a difference when it comes to tornadoes.
0 likes
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Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
SVR T-STORM WATCH now in effect for parts of central Texas until 7pm...
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 57
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST OF NEW
BRAUNFELS TEXAS TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF SHERMAN TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS WW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF VERY STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM NOW MOVING ACROSS SWRN TX. DESPITE COOL AND STABLE SURFACE
CONDITIONS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ASCENT WILL
MAINTAIN A FEW STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 57
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST OF NEW
BRAUNFELS TEXAS TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF SHERMAN TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS WW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF VERY STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM NOW MOVING ACROSS SWRN TX. DESPITE COOL AND STABLE SURFACE
CONDITIONS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ASCENT WILL
MAINTAIN A FEW STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...WRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 162000Z - 162130Z
A TORNADO WATCH APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN...AND PERHAPS INTO WRN LA...WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AND EXPAND EWD FROM
PARTS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL TX TO SERN TX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A
STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS NEWD FROM THE BIG BEND AREA. POTENT
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS...CHARACTERIZED BY 70-90KT SWLY 500MB
FLOW...WILL SPREAD EAST ATOP CONFLUENT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF
30-40KT TO RESULT IN A VERY FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR
ROTATING STORMS/MESOCYCLONES. GIVEN INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING.
AT PRESENT...MUCH OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED AS
INDICATED IN 18Z CRP SOUNDING. THIS CAPPING IS ALSO EVIDENT IN
WIDESPREAD SC CLOUD DECK OBSERVED IN SATL IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FORCING ALONG THE STRONGLY CONVERGENT SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE INTERSECTION...OVER WILSON COUNTY...AND
APPROACH OF MID/UPPER TROUGH...WILL EFFECTIVELY ERODE THE CAP AND
LEAD TO SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN DEGREE
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR/HELICITY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...INITIALLY
DISCRETE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP MESOCYCLONES. TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING PRIOR TO MORE LINEAR
STRUCTURE EVOLVING AS COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS EAST.
..CARBIN.. 02/16/2008
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
32769473 32649428 32229386 30929347 30029375 29529420
29209492 28759572 28109714 28289798 28959856 29339823
29879729 30259676 30749647 31349620 31759615 32269583
32849504
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...WRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 162000Z - 162130Z
A TORNADO WATCH APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN...AND PERHAPS INTO WRN LA...WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AND EXPAND EWD FROM
PARTS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL TX TO SERN TX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A
STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS NEWD FROM THE BIG BEND AREA. POTENT
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS...CHARACTERIZED BY 70-90KT SWLY 500MB
FLOW...WILL SPREAD EAST ATOP CONFLUENT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF
30-40KT TO RESULT IN A VERY FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR
ROTATING STORMS/MESOCYCLONES. GIVEN INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING.
AT PRESENT...MUCH OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED AS
INDICATED IN 18Z CRP SOUNDING. THIS CAPPING IS ALSO EVIDENT IN
WIDESPREAD SC CLOUD DECK OBSERVED IN SATL IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FORCING ALONG THE STRONGLY CONVERGENT SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE INTERSECTION...OVER WILSON COUNTY...AND
APPROACH OF MID/UPPER TROUGH...WILL EFFECTIVELY ERODE THE CAP AND
LEAD TO SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN DEGREE
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR/HELICITY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...INITIALLY
DISCRETE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP MESOCYCLONES. TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING PRIOR TO MORE LINEAR
STRUCTURE EVOLVING AS COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS EAST.
..CARBIN.. 02/16/2008
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
32769473 32649428 32229386 30929347 30029375 29529420
29209492 28759572 28109714 28289798 28959856 29339823
29879729 30259676 30749647 31349620 31759615 32269583
32849504
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 58
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
VICTORIA TEXAS TO 35 MILES NORTH OF TYLER TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 57...
DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL PERSIST ACROSS DESTABILIZING
WARM SECTOR IN E TX LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WITH DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND MOVE QUICKLY
NEWD ACROSS WW. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...EVOLUTION INTO A LARGER LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY WITH
ATTENDANT INCREASE IN DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
...EVANS
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 58
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
VICTORIA TEXAS TO 35 MILES NORTH OF TYLER TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 57...
DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL PERSIST ACROSS DESTABILIZING
WARM SECTOR IN E TX LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WITH DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND MOVE QUICKLY
NEWD ACROSS WW. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...EVOLUTION INTO A LARGER LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY WITH
ATTENDANT INCREASE IN DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
...EVANS
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 162023
WOU8
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 58
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
TORNADO WATCH 58 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TXC001-005-015-021-039-041-051-055-057-071-073-089-123-145-149-
157-161-167-175-177-183-185-201-213-225-239-255-257-285-287-289-
291-293-313-321-331-339-347-349-373-379-395-401-407-423-455-459-
467-469-471-473-477-481-499-170300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0058.080216T2025Z-080217T0300Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN
BASTROP BRAZORIA BRAZOS
BURLESON CALDWELL CALHOUN
CHAMBERS CHEROKEE COLORADO
DEWITT FALLS FAYETTE
FORT BEND FREESTONE GALVESTON
GOLIAD GONZALES GREGG
GRIMES HARRIS HENDERSON
HOUSTON JACKSON KARNES
KAUFMAN LAVACA LEE
LEON LIBERTY LIMESTONE
MADISON MATAGORDA MILAM
MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO
POLK RAINS ROBERTSON
RUSK SAN JACINTO SMITH
TRINITY UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
VICTORIA WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WHARTON WOOD
GMZ235-330-335-350-355-170300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0058.080216T2025Z-080217T0300Z/
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O CONNOR
MATAGORDA BAY
GALVESTON BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM
ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...CRP...SHV...EWX...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 58 TORNADO TX CW 162025Z - 170300Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20SSE VCT/VICTORIA TX/ - 35N TYR/TYLER TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /28WSW PSX - 42NW GGG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
LAT...LON 28579802 32849669 32849411 28579555
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 58 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 58
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
VICTORIA TEXAS TO 35 MILES NORTH OF TYLER TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 57...
DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL PERSIST ACROSS DESTABILIZING
WARM SECTOR IN E TX LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WITH DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND MOVE QUICKLY
NEWD ACROSS WW. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...EVOLUTION INTO A LARGER LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY WITH
ATTENDANT INCREASE IN DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
...EVANS
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 58
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
VICTORIA TEXAS TO 35 MILES NORTH OF TYLER TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 57...
DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL PERSIST ACROSS DESTABILIZING
WARM SECTOR IN E TX LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WITH DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND MOVE QUICKLY
NEWD ACROSS WW. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...EVOLUTION INTO A LARGER LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY WITH
ATTENDANT INCREASE IN DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
...EVANS
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 162023
WOU8
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 58
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
TORNADO WATCH 58 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TXC001-005-015-021-039-041-051-055-057-071-073-089-123-145-149-
157-161-167-175-177-183-185-201-213-225-239-255-257-285-287-289-
291-293-313-321-331-339-347-349-373-379-395-401-407-423-455-459-
467-469-471-473-477-481-499-170300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0058.080216T2025Z-080217T0300Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN
BASTROP BRAZORIA BRAZOS
BURLESON CALDWELL CALHOUN
CHAMBERS CHEROKEE COLORADO
DEWITT FALLS FAYETTE
FORT BEND FREESTONE GALVESTON
GOLIAD GONZALES GREGG
GRIMES HARRIS HENDERSON
HOUSTON JACKSON KARNES
KAUFMAN LAVACA LEE
LEON LIBERTY LIMESTONE
MADISON MATAGORDA MILAM
MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO
POLK RAINS ROBERTSON
RUSK SAN JACINTO SMITH
TRINITY UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
VICTORIA WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WHARTON WOOD
GMZ235-330-335-350-355-170300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0058.080216T2025Z-080217T0300Z/
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O CONNOR
MATAGORDA BAY
GALVESTON BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM
ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...CRP...SHV...EWX...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 58 TORNADO TX CW 162025Z - 170300Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20SSE VCT/VICTORIA TX/ - 35N TYR/TYLER TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /28WSW PSX - 42NW GGG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
LAT...LON 28579802 32849669 32849411 28579555
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 58 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
0 likes
-
HarlequinBoy
- Category 5
- Posts: 1400
- Age: 34
- Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:57 am
- Location: Memphis
-
Ed Mahmoud
Re: SVR WX: MDT risk/SE Texas/10%H Tornado/30%H Hail/45% Wind
I have a feeling we may escape without the kind of tornado threat we saw yesterday. Notice it is an ordinary watch. The big show, especially here in the HOU metro, I suspect, will be the squall line. Lots of wind damage, but lessened injury risk.
0 likes
-
Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
Re:
If it would have been a 60% tornado chance, then it would have been. However, they only put a 50% tornado chance..10% away from PDS criteria..so this watch didn't quite make the cut. This is about as close as you can get to a PDS without officially having one though, so it is still a very dangerous situation.HarlequinBoy wrote:Mod tornado probs, high wind probs.. no PDS watch though.
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
HarlequinBoy wrote:Mod tornado probs, high wind probs.. no PDS watch though.
The 50% overall tornado probability is too low for a PDS (usually needs to be 70% if the strong tornado risk is 50%).
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