Next big severe outbreak starts Monday?
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Next big severe outbreak starts Monday?
Most of DFW just outside MODERATE RISK and hatched tornado probabilities...
.
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
FTW ACT 20 NW AUS 10 WSW SAT 35 SW HDO 45 ESE DRT 30 NNE DRT 30 ESE
SJT 20 ESE ABI 45 NE ABI 20 NNW MWL 10 SE FTW.
.
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Ed Mahmoud
Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:It's quite possible the Day 2 will also be upgraded.
Yup, forecast HOU area soundings, even if discrete cells don't form and it is a QLMCS, with 60 knot winds less than a kilometer up, almost every storm in the line would produce severe wind gusts, and enough low level shear for tornadoes even in a squall line.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 171652
TXZ000-180045-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS
SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...THE LIKLIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL STEADILY INCREASE
ACROSS TEXAS. IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD
FRONT...INITIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION AND
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR
AND WEST OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX. WITH INCREASINGLY
STRONG JET STREAM WINDS AND A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS IN
PLACE...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...WITH A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. THE STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE SQUALL LINES LATE TONIGHT...WITH
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTING MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..GUYER/HALES.. 03/17/2008
$$
WOUS40 KWNS 171652
TXZ000-180045-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS
SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...THE LIKLIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL STEADILY INCREASE
ACROSS TEXAS. IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD
FRONT...INITIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION AND
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR
AND WEST OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX. WITH INCREASINGLY
STRONG JET STREAM WINDS AND A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS IN
PLACE...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...WITH A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. THE STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE SQUALL LINES LATE TONIGHT...WITH
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTING MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..GUYER/HALES.. 03/17/2008
$$
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Indeed a MDT, but too small IMO:
SPC AC 171730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN AND SE TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...
...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD
INTO THE RIO GRAND VALLEY AND ACCELERATE NEWD TUESDAY EVENING AS A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MS
VALLEY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM ECNTRL TX
EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS SERN MO...NRN AR AND EAST TX TUESDAY. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP BY TUESDAY EVENING MOVING ACROSS
THE MID-MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE TN VALLEY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AN IMPRESSIVE 90 TO 100 KT
MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ENEWD OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CREATING STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
BOW ECHOES. A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WITH A LARGE MCS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL TX
EXTENDING NEWD TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD MO. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ALSO EXIST IN EAST TX AND ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAINS
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS A WELL-FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES NWD INTO
THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 15Z TO 18Z TUESDAY
ACROSS THIS HOUSTON AREA SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 400
TO 500 M2/S2 WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS SE TX EXTENDING NEWD TO NEAR THE
SABINE RIVER. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS WITH ACCESS TO LOCALLY GREATER INSTABILITY.
THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND NEW CELLS INITIATE
FURTHER EAST. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 7.5 C/KM SUGGEST
LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS...BOW ECHOES AND ORGANIZED LINE
SEGMENTS. A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS A
SQUALL-LINE ORGANIZES AND MOVES INTO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME
ENHANCED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS LA AND WRN MS. THE MODERATE RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
ENEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ONCE THE EXTENT OF THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
..BROYLES.. 03/17/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1736Z (1:36PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC AC 171730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN AND SE TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...
...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD
INTO THE RIO GRAND VALLEY AND ACCELERATE NEWD TUESDAY EVENING AS A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MS
VALLEY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM ECNTRL TX
EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS SERN MO...NRN AR AND EAST TX TUESDAY. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP BY TUESDAY EVENING MOVING ACROSS
THE MID-MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE TN VALLEY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AN IMPRESSIVE 90 TO 100 KT
MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ENEWD OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CREATING STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
BOW ECHOES. A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WITH A LARGE MCS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL TX
EXTENDING NEWD TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD MO. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ALSO EXIST IN EAST TX AND ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAINS
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS A WELL-FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES NWD INTO
THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 15Z TO 18Z TUESDAY
ACROSS THIS HOUSTON AREA SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 400
TO 500 M2/S2 WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS SE TX EXTENDING NEWD TO NEAR THE
SABINE RIVER. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS WITH ACCESS TO LOCALLY GREATER INSTABILITY.
THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND NEW CELLS INITIATE
FURTHER EAST. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 7.5 C/KM SUGGEST
LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS...BOW ECHOES AND ORGANIZED LINE
SEGMENTS. A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS A
SQUALL-LINE ORGANIZES AND MOVES INTO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME
ENHANCED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS LA AND WRN MS. THE MODERATE RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
ENEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ONCE THE EXTENT OF THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
..BROYLES.. 03/17/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1736Z (1:36PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST OK AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 171802Z - 171930Z
MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE RISK ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK INTO NORTH TX
EAST OF CHILDRESS. ALTHOUGH BACKGROUND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
SEEMINGLY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...AMPLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE INVOF
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OK INTO NORTH TX. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 750-1000 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING THE
MAGNITUDE/EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.
..GUYER.. 03/17/2008
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
35319914 35259816 34109735 32519936 33120058
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST OK AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 171802Z - 171930Z
MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE RISK ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK INTO NORTH TX
EAST OF CHILDRESS. ALTHOUGH BACKGROUND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
SEEMINGLY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...AMPLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE INVOF
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OK INTO NORTH TX. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 750-1000 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING THE
MAGNITUDE/EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.
..GUYER.. 03/17/2008
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
35319914 35259816 34109735 32519936 33120058
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANGELO
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM SWRN OK TO W OF SJT.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. STORMS PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DRY
LINE COULD DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS ENHANCING SEVERE THREAT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...HALES
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANGELO
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM SWRN OK TO W OF SJT.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. STORMS PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DRY
LINE COULD DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS ENHANCING SEVERE THREAT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...HALES
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 171827
WOU4
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
OKC011-015-017-031-033-039-051-065-067-075-137-141-149-180000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0124.080317T1830Z-080318T0000Z/
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN
COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER
GRADY JACKSON JEFFERSON
KIOWA STEPHENS TILLMAN
WASHITA
TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-093-095-133-143-151-155-197-207-
235-237-253-275-307-333-337-353-363-399-411-417-429-441-447-451-
485-487-503-180000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0124.080317T1830Z-080318T0000Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN
CALLAHAN CLAY COKE
COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO
EASTLAND ERATH FISHER
FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL
IRION JACK JONES
KNOX MCCULLOCH MILLS
MONTAGUE NOLAN PALO PINTO
RUNNELS SAN SABA SHACKELFORD
STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON
TOM GREEN WICHITA WILBARGER
YOUNG
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 124 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 171830Z - 180000Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NW OKC/OKLAHOMA CITY OK/ - 40ESE SJT/SAN ANGELO TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /32SSW END - 33N JCT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
LAT...LON 35849709 31139886 31130088 35849923
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 124 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANGELO
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM SWRN OK TO W OF SJT.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. STORMS PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DRY
LINE COULD DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS ENHANCING SEVERE THREAT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...HALES
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANGELO
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM SWRN OK TO W OF SJT.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. STORMS PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DRY
LINE COULD DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS ENHANCING SEVERE THREAT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...HALES
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 171827
WOU4
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
OKC011-015-017-031-033-039-051-065-067-075-137-141-149-180000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0124.080317T1830Z-080318T0000Z/
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN
COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER
GRADY JACKSON JEFFERSON
KIOWA STEPHENS TILLMAN
WASHITA
TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-093-095-133-143-151-155-197-207-
235-237-253-275-307-333-337-353-363-399-411-417-429-441-447-451-
485-487-503-180000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0124.080317T1830Z-080318T0000Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN
CALLAHAN CLAY COKE
COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO
EASTLAND ERATH FISHER
FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL
IRION JACK JONES
KNOX MCCULLOCH MILLS
MONTAGUE NOLAN PALO PINTO
RUNNELS SAN SABA SHACKELFORD
STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON
TOM GREEN WICHITA WILBARGER
YOUNG
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 124 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 171830Z - 180000Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NW OKC/OKLAHOMA CITY OK/ - 40ESE SJT/SAN ANGELO TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /32SSW END - 33N JCT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
LAT...LON 35849709 31139886 31130088 35849923
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 124 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
228 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
TXC353-171945-
/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080317T1945Z/
NOLAN TX-
228 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR NOLAN
COUNTY...
AT 223 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION
OF HIGHWAY 70 AND RANCH ROAD 53...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF
SWEETWATER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE SWEETWATER AND SWEETWATER BY 235 PM CDT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
228 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
TXC353-171945-
/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080317T1945Z/
NOLAN TX-
228 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR NOLAN
COUNTY...
AT 223 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION
OF HIGHWAY 70 AND RANCH ROAD 53...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF
SWEETWATER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE SWEETWATER AND SWEETWATER BY 235 PM CDT...
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228 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
Must be that little cluster...NWS hasn´t issued a warning... ? Is that right ?
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SPC AC 171949
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND
SOUTHWEST TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND OZARK PLATEAU...
...SRN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WCNTRL TX WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE AROUND 60 F. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS SRN OK AND NCNTRL TX AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY
EXPAND IN COVERAGE. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S F ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND WCNTRL TX. ALTHOUGH A
CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SOUTHWEST
TX...SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP AND DEVELOP
MODERATE INSTABILITY NWD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO NORTH TX BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A LARGE MCS TO ORGANIZE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 80 TO 90 KT
MID-LEVEL JET OVER NRN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EWD INTO WEST
TX THROUGH THIS EVENING REINFORCING THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
ALREADY IN PLACE. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW LINEAR ORGANIZATION
OCCURRING ALONG A COLD FRONT IN WRN OK. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINES WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WHERE GAPS
IN THE LINES EXIST. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA
WHERE THE EML IS MORE PRONOUNCED...THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS APPEARS HIGHER. IN THIS AREA...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A 50 TO
60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTH TX. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS SUPERCELLS MATURE AND MOVE EWD INTO
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST
IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME FROM DEL RIO NNEWD ACROSS THE TX HILL
COUNTRY TO AREAS WEST OF FORT WORTH WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN OK WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT AND
LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
SUGGESTING THE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE RED RIVER SSWWD TO THE RIO GRAND VALLEY WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST A
TRANSITION TO A LINEAR-STRUCTURED MCS SHOULD OCCUR SUGGESTING A MORE
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR IN ECNTRL AND SOUTHWEST TX. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE RESULTANT MODERATE INSTABILITY.
...OZARK REGION/CNTRL PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS SE KS AND SRN MO
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...MODEL FORECASTS INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE LINES THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH...INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN BY RUC ANALYSIS
AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND
SOUTHWEST TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND OZARK PLATEAU...
...SRN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WCNTRL TX WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE AROUND 60 F. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS SRN OK AND NCNTRL TX AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY
EXPAND IN COVERAGE. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S F ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND WCNTRL TX. ALTHOUGH A
CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SOUTHWEST
TX...SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP AND DEVELOP
MODERATE INSTABILITY NWD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO NORTH TX BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A LARGE MCS TO ORGANIZE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 80 TO 90 KT
MID-LEVEL JET OVER NRN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EWD INTO WEST
TX THROUGH THIS EVENING REINFORCING THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
ALREADY IN PLACE. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW LINEAR ORGANIZATION
OCCURRING ALONG A COLD FRONT IN WRN OK. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINES WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WHERE GAPS
IN THE LINES EXIST. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA
WHERE THE EML IS MORE PRONOUNCED...THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS APPEARS HIGHER. IN THIS AREA...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A 50 TO
60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTH TX. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS SUPERCELLS MATURE AND MOVE EWD INTO
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST
IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME FROM DEL RIO NNEWD ACROSS THE TX HILL
COUNTRY TO AREAS WEST OF FORT WORTH WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN OK WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT AND
LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
SUGGESTING THE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE RED RIVER SSWWD TO THE RIO GRAND VALLEY WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST A
TRANSITION TO A LINEAR-STRUCTURED MCS SHOULD OCCUR SUGGESTING A MORE
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR IN ECNTRL AND SOUTHWEST TX. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE RESULTANT MODERATE INSTABILITY.
...OZARK REGION/CNTRL PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS SE KS AND SRN MO
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...MODEL FORECASTS INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE LINES THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH...INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN BY RUC ANALYSIS
AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL.
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN OK AND NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124...
VALID 172053Z - 172230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124
CONTINUES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124 CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z ACROSS WESTERN OK
AND NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL TX...WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OK...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX...AND
A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. PREVIOUSLY WARNED
STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TX WEST OF ABILENE HAVE EXHIBITED A DISTINCT
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT AT THIS TIME...THE LIKLIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL/WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNCERTAIN THROUGH SUNSET OWING TO EXISTING
CIRRUS CANOPY. FARTHER NORTH...THE RELATIVELY MOST
ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
INTO CENTRAL OK AND PERHAPS FAR NORTH TX. IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT...A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO QUICKLY NOSE INTO OK AHEAD OF CURRENT STRONG/SEVERE CLUSTER OF
STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK. THESE STORMS COULD REACH
PORTIONS OF THE OKC METRO AREA BEFORE 2230Z/530 PM CDT...WITH A RISK
OF LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..GUYER.. 03/17/2008
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
31359855 31380035 33879919 36249760 35179635 33229711
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN OK AND NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124...
VALID 172053Z - 172230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124
CONTINUES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124 CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z ACROSS WESTERN OK
AND NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL TX...WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OK...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX...AND
A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. PREVIOUSLY WARNED
STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TX WEST OF ABILENE HAVE EXHIBITED A DISTINCT
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT AT THIS TIME...THE LIKLIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL/WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNCERTAIN THROUGH SUNSET OWING TO EXISTING
CIRRUS CANOPY. FARTHER NORTH...THE RELATIVELY MOST
ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
INTO CENTRAL OK AND PERHAPS FAR NORTH TX. IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT...A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO QUICKLY NOSE INTO OK AHEAD OF CURRENT STRONG/SEVERE CLUSTER OF
STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK. THESE STORMS COULD REACH
PORTIONS OF THE OKC METRO AREA BEFORE 2230Z/530 PM CDT...WITH A RISK
OF LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..GUYER.. 03/17/2008
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
31359855 31380035 33879919 36249760 35179635 33229711
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-
SamSagnella
- Category 2
- Posts: 630
- Age: 38
- Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:02 pm
- Location: Westport, CT
- Contact:
Re: Next big severe outbreak starts Monday?
This was posted on ST a little while ago; a photo of a small tornado that touched down earlier in Nolan County TX.
http://bigcountryhomepage.com/content/f ... /?cid=7319
http://bigcountryhomepage.com/content/f ... /?cid=7319
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0441
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX INTO CENTRAL/NRN OK AND PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL/SERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124...
VALID 172151Z - 172215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124
CONTINUES.
WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO N/NE OK TO SERN KS.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD
NWD WITHIN WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH
EXTENDED FROM SW OK INTO SERN KS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTING MUCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 500 J/KG.
STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING.
ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THEY TRACK
NNEWD AND DEEPER INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR MASS LOCATED WITH NWD
EXTENT AWAY FROM THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND E OF
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS.
CURRENT TSTMS LOCATED TO THE SW AND W OF OKC APPEAR TO BE TIED TO
ASCENT WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS NEWD INTO NRN OK/SERN KS... ASCENT
SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE SRN EXTENT OF WW 124 INTO NRN/WEST CENTRAL
TX...PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 440.
..PETERS.. 03/17/2008
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
34929713 34909767 35779764 36429749 37019710 37609550
36819521 36009575 35109645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX INTO CENTRAL/NRN OK AND PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL/SERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124...
VALID 172151Z - 172215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124
CONTINUES.
WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO N/NE OK TO SERN KS.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD
NWD WITHIN WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH
EXTENDED FROM SW OK INTO SERN KS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTING MUCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 500 J/KG.
STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING.
ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THEY TRACK
NNEWD AND DEEPER INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR MASS LOCATED WITH NWD
EXTENT AWAY FROM THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND E OF
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS.
CURRENT TSTMS LOCATED TO THE SW AND W OF OKC APPEAR TO BE TIED TO
ASCENT WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS NEWD INTO NRN OK/SERN KS... ASCENT
SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE SRN EXTENT OF WW 124 INTO NRN/WEST CENTRAL
TX...PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 440.
..PETERS.. 03/17/2008
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
34929713 34909767 35779764 36429749 37019710 37609550
36819521 36009575 35109645
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-
Ed Mahmoud
Re: Next big severe outbreak starts Monday?
New MD for NE Texas into Oklahoma and SW Arkansas, and radar suggests dryline may becoming active near ABI
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 550 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF POTEAU
OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TYLER TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 124...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS THAT HAVE FORMED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR OVER NE TX
APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO HEATING AND TO CHANGES IN LOW-LEVEL
JET/CONVERGENCE FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-LEVEL
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER ERN KS. GIVEN 50+ KT SSWLY DEEP
SHEAR...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INVOF WARM FRONT ATTM
LOCATED JUST S OF THE RED RIVER...AND INCREASING MOISTURE
INFLOW...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE
TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...CORFIDI
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 550 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF POTEAU
OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TYLER TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 124...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS THAT HAVE FORMED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR OVER NE TX
APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO HEATING AND TO CHANGES IN LOW-LEVEL
JET/CONVERGENCE FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-LEVEL
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER ERN KS. GIVEN 50+ KT SSWLY DEEP
SHEAR...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INVOF WARM FRONT ATTM
LOCATED JUST S OF THE RED RIVER...AND INCREASING MOISTURE
INFLOW...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE
TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...CORFIDI
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 172247
WOU5
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
TORNADO WATCH 125 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC019-051-057-059-061-081-083-091-097-099-105-109-113-127-131-
133-149-180600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0125.080317T2250Z-080318T0600Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK GARLAND HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD LITTLE RIVER
LOGAN MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA PERRY PIKE
POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN
SEVIER YELL
OKC005-013-023-061-077-079-089-121-127-180600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0125.080317T2250Z-080318T0600Z/
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
MCCURTAIN PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA
TXC037-063-067-119-139-147-159-183-203-213-223-231-257-277-315-
343-349-379-387-397-423-449-459-467-499-180600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0125.080317T2250Z-080318T0600Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
DELTA ELLIS FANNIN
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
HENDERSON HOPKINS HUNT
KAUFMAN LAMAR MARION
MORRIS NAVARRO RAINS
RED RIVER ROCKWALL SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
WOOD
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...TSA...OUN...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 125 TORNADO AR OK TX 172250Z - 180600Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NE RKR/POTEAU OK/ - 25SW TYR/TYLER TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /4E FSM - 52WSW GGG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
LAT...LON 35369284 32099441 32099698 35369551
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 125 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 550 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF POTEAU
OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TYLER TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 124...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS THAT HAVE FORMED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR OVER NE TX
APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO HEATING AND TO CHANGES IN LOW-LEVEL
JET/CONVERGENCE FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-LEVEL
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER ERN KS. GIVEN 50+ KT SSWLY DEEP
SHEAR...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INVOF WARM FRONT ATTM
LOCATED JUST S OF THE RED RIVER...AND INCREASING MOISTURE
INFLOW...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE
TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...CORFIDI
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 550 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF POTEAU
OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TYLER TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 124...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS THAT HAVE FORMED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR OVER NE TX
APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO HEATING AND TO CHANGES IN LOW-LEVEL
JET/CONVERGENCE FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-LEVEL
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER ERN KS. GIVEN 50+ KT SSWLY DEEP
SHEAR...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INVOF WARM FRONT ATTM
LOCATED JUST S OF THE RED RIVER...AND INCREASING MOISTURE
INFLOW...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE
TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...CORFIDI
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 172247
WOU5
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
TORNADO WATCH 125 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC019-051-057-059-061-081-083-091-097-099-105-109-113-127-131-
133-149-180600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0125.080317T2250Z-080318T0600Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK GARLAND HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD LITTLE RIVER
LOGAN MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA PERRY PIKE
POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN
SEVIER YELL
OKC005-013-023-061-077-079-089-121-127-180600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0125.080317T2250Z-080318T0600Z/
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
MCCURTAIN PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA
TXC037-063-067-119-139-147-159-183-203-213-223-231-257-277-315-
343-349-379-387-397-423-449-459-467-499-180600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0125.080317T2250Z-080318T0600Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
DELTA ELLIS FANNIN
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
HENDERSON HOPKINS HUNT
KAUFMAN LAMAR MARION
MORRIS NAVARRO RAINS
RED RIVER ROCKWALL SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
WOOD
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...TSA...OUN...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 125 TORNADO AR OK TX 172250Z - 180600Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NE RKR/POTEAU OK/ - 25SW TYR/TYLER TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /4E FSM - 52WSW GGG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
LAT...LON 35369284 32099441 32099698 35369551
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 125 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
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TORNADO WARNING
TXC231-172345-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0002.080317T2304Z-080317T2345Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HUNT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT
* AT 604 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR QUINLAN...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTH OF
GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CADDO MILLS BY 610 PM CDT...
GREENVILLE BY 620 PM CDT...
CAMPBELL BY 625 PM CDT...
NEYLANDVILLE BY 630 PM CDT...
COMMERCE BY 635 PM CDT...
TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT...OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME IN AN
INTERIOR CLOSET OR BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS FOR COVER.
EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES FOR A STORM SHELTER OR PERMANENT BUILDING. IF
NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.
LAT...LON 3299 9629 3303 9629 3339 9604 3340 9592
3341 9591 3341 9587 3313 9586 3300 9594
3285 9612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 210DEG 38KT 3297 9616
$$
DUNN
TXC231-172345-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0002.080317T2304Z-080317T2345Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HUNT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT
* AT 604 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR QUINLAN...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTH OF
GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CADDO MILLS BY 610 PM CDT...
GREENVILLE BY 620 PM CDT...
CAMPBELL BY 625 PM CDT...
NEYLANDVILLE BY 630 PM CDT...
COMMERCE BY 635 PM CDT...
TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT...OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME IN AN
INTERIOR CLOSET OR BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS FOR COVER.
EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES FOR A STORM SHELTER OR PERMANENT BUILDING. IF
NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.
LAT...LON 3299 9629 3303 9629 3339 9604 3340 9592
3341 9591 3341 9587 3313 9586 3300 9594
3285 9612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 210DEG 38KT 3297 9616
$$
DUNN
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