Severe weather/outbreak? - April 23-25

[Category 5]

Might be trying to get going again.

[Bunkertor]

OK, i can´t imagine how mass can correlate to a square measure, but you´ll be on the right side. I´ll have to figure that out tomorrow.

[Bunkertor]

integration

OK, so it must be m^2

[RL3AO]

Imagine putting a piece of tape on the ground make one square meter. VIL in the measurement of the weight of the water in the column above that one square meter. So its measuring the water in that 1m x 10km column.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The third dimension that would make it a volume, is the height of the box that has an area of a square meter. The radar is sampling over a 10 km high column, so the volume would be orders of magnitude more than a cubic meter.

[Bunkertor]

Imagine putting a piece of tape on the ground make one square meter. VIL in the measurement of the weight of the water in the column above that one square meter. So its measuring the water in that 1m x 10km column.

OK, that would be 75 kg in 10000 m^3. Thats not much. It must have something to do with integral maths

OK. poor weather knowledge combined with rusty english and vintage math makes less understanding. I´ll have to rework that

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like the tornado threat is decreasing.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
836 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008


.UPDATE...
MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AS COLD POOL INTENSIFIES FROM TREMENDOUS
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. BOW ECHO NOW FORMING SOUTHWEST OF THE
METROPLEX AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST WITH WIND DAMAGE
THE PRIMARY THREAT. TRAILING LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH
EASTLAND COUNTY. EXPECT THAT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES...LINE
OF STORMS WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CWA AND HAVE RAISED
POPS THERE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CWA WHERE MERGER OF STORMS OVER GRANDBURY REMINISCENT OF
THE MAYFEST STORM. CLEARED THE TOR WATCH FROM THE NW CWA...BUT
OTHERWISE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. TR.92

[KatDaddy]

You have to look hard to see the funnel. I was working with our Shamrock, TX plant and checking out the plant CAMs. Storm chasing via INet cams is very cool.

http://smg.photobucket.com/albums/v338/ ... _Cloud.jpg

[CajunMama]

Katdaddy...love the "There it is"

[CrazyC83]

The moderate risk sure verified yesterday for hail...

Similar weather it looks like today, farther north.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'll admit, living in Texas and having done most of my oilfield work in Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana, I'm sort of Texas centric.


The 8 am CDT SWODY1 has Texas only in a "SEE TEXT" area, with mention that convective initiation is too low to outlook more than 5%, and I can see why, but it looks like low clouds will mix out, and the 7 am CDT sounding shows good instability above the cap already, and very impressive low level shear.

If anything does bust the cap, it should go severe quickly, and have a decent risk of tornadoes.

[Ed Mahmoud]

TWC had chaser video of the Lamesa, TX tornado last night. I went to weather.com, found the link for the video, watched it, and the idiots there had mis-linked to a different video, of Mark Mancuso talking about rain prospects in the South.


I tried.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Western Kansas and Nebraska still look very quiet, but they should be getting a decent amount of daytime heating.

[Ed Mahmoud]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0714
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT THU APR 24 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/WCENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241949Z - 242215Z

ISOLATED TO SCT SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BY 22Z OVER WCENTRAL/SWRN TX.
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TX BIG BEND AREA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
FIELDS AND SFC TEMPERATURES INDICATE LESS THAN 50 J/KG OF MLCINH
EXISTED AHEAD OF A STATIONARY DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ABI SWWD
TO BETWEEN DEL RIO AND SANDERSON. ALTHOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE IS
GENERALLY WEAK...TSTM INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT
1-2 HRS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ALONG A SEPARATE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY THAT EXISTS OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG COMBINED WITH MODEST
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR /500 MB FLOW AROUND 35 KTS PER THE RECENT FCST
SOUNDINGS/ WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION AND SVR HAIL/DMGG WIND WITH
ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP.

..CROSBIE.. 04/24/2008

[Ed Mahmoud]

TCU between SJT and ABI


Liberal, KS has a dewpoint of 37ºF, with a SW wind, so they are on the dry side of the dryline.

But radar is showing some light showers developing in Colorado, well back in the dry air, so I suspect something mid-level is approaching, and the dry line will pop soon.

[Bunkertor]

You expect something mid level ? Means MDT ? - I just wanted to write, that i expect nothing. But soundings for OKC and Dodge city are pretty ominous.

[Ed Mahmoud]

You expect something mid level ? Means MDT ? - I just wanted to write, that i expect nothing. But soundings for OKC and Dodge city are pretty ominous.

By mid level, I mean a feature that is producing elevated showers with drier surface air, but SPC still has that area in a moderate risk, so when the dryline starts to fire up (and there is a bit of cu now near it in Western Kansas), the storms should be pretty healthy.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just checked, no Kansas meso discussion, I expected one with increasing cu development and showers developing on the dry side of the dryline.

[Bunkertor]

I wondered why they remained at MDT but a surprise also remains on the schedule. But i don´t think we´ll witness day2 phenomena.

Severe weather or not. The risk for me to abandon my computer is elevated.

[RL3AO]

The first thunderstorm has developed along the WY/KS border. Its probably getting ready to take off.