Tornado outbreak - February 10-11, 8+ dead

[RL3AO]

And we have the first warning.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN DE BACA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
NORTHWESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO

* UNTIL 415 PM MST

* AT 336 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL DE BACA COUNTY TO
SOUTHEASTERN DE BACA COUNTY TO EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL CHAVES
COUNTY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT
SUMNER TO 23 MILES SOUTH OF FORT SUMNER TO 33 MILES SOUTH OF FORT
SUMNER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL NORTHERN CHAVES COUNTY AROUND 350 PM MST...
RURAL EASTERN DE BACA COUNTY AROUND 350 PM MST...
RURAL NORTHEASTERN CHAVES COUNTY AROUND 400 PM MST...

[srainhoutx]

Looks as if a Watch is coming shortly from SPC

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just an appetizer for Tuesday, I suspect.

See my post previous page. DFW area forecast skew-T from both GFS and WRF look favorable for multiple modes of severe.


Speaking of...

snip of NWS FWD AFD

THE NEXT...AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AND BRING A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TO
NORTH TEXAS. STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL CREATE ROBUST WIND FIELDS AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES.
SHEAR OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS COMMON WITH SYSTEMS IN THE COOL
SEASON...HOWEVER THEY USUALLY HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE THIS TIME. RICH
MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES...WILL
CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES PROGGED OVER 1000 J/KG BY
SEVERAL MODELS AND SREF MEMBERS. SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN
PLACE FOR A TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT/TORNADIC EVENT...DEPENDS
ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PLAYS OUT...WHICH JUST CANT BE DEDUCED YET.

[RL3AO]

A lot of the ingredients are there for something big on Tuesday. Lets see if it all pans out.

[srainhoutx]

Just an appetizer for Tuesday, I suspect.

See my post previous page. DFW area forecast skew-T from both GFS and WRF look favorable for multiple modes of severe.


Speaking of...

snip of NWS FWD AFD

THE NEXT...AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AND BRING A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TO
NORTH TEXAS. STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL CREATE ROBUST WIND FIELDS AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES.
SHEAR OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS COMMON WITH SYSTEMS IN THE COOL
SEASON...HOWEVER THEY USUALLY HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE THIS TIME. RICH
MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES...WILL
CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES PROGGED OVER 1000 J/KG BY
SEVERAL MODELS AND SREF MEMBERS. SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN
PLACE FOR A TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT/TORNADIC EVENT...DEPENDS
ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PLAYS OUT...WHICH JUST CANT BE DEDUCED YET.

Ed, the 12Z NAM soundings were very impressive concerning Tuesday, but will wait as the event gets a bit closer to speculate beyond that. Stay Tuned Folks, a parade of storms looks very likely this coming week into the weekend.

[RL3AO]

Two more warnings as a nice line has popped up quick in far eastern New Mexico.

[brunota2003]

Look for some hail reports shortly from that line...quite impressive purples on gr.

[CrazyC83]

Today it seems hail is the big threat. I don't see many, if any, tornadoes happening from today's activity.

[RL3AO]

No SVR watch yet.

[RL3AO]

There we go.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 6
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
515 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
PARTS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 515 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
WINK TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ERN NM. WITH
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH ROTATING NEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THE INITIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND THEN
TRANSITION INTO A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS AND
MOVES EWD.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.

...HALES

[CrazyC83]

The dynamics for the next few days:

This afternoon/evening - Not much

EHI - around 0.25 (low levels) / around 0.50 (mid-levels)
Helicity - around 300
CAPE - around 500
LI - around -4

Tomorrow - Some low-topped tornadic activity possible in the Midwest

EHI - around 1.00 (low levels) / around 1.50 (mid-levels)
Helicity - around 500
CAPE - around 500
LI - around -5

Tuesday - MAJOR tornado outbreak possible in the late afternoon and evening, southern Plains/Mississippi Valley

EHI - over 4.00 (low levels) / over 5.50!!! (mid-levels)
Helicity - around 550 (increasing late evening/overnight)
CAPE - peaking over 2,000 (large area over 1,000)
LI - around -10

Wednesday - Squall line and remnant spin-up tornadoes along a long swath

EHI - around 0.50 (low levels) / around 1.25 (mid-levels)
Helicity - around 800
CAPE - around 750
LI - around -5 (decreasing throughout the day)

[brunota2003]

What are we looking at for here near Lawton, OK for Tuesday?

[CrazyC83]

What are we looking at for here near Lawton, OK for Tuesday?

You're likely in the initiation area. The bullseye for activity should be along and east of I-35 in my opinion.

[Bunkertor]

Tuesday - MAJOR tornado outbreak possible in the late afternoon and evening, southern Plains/Mississippi Valley

EHI - over 4.00 (low levels) / over 5.50!!! (mid-levels)
Helicity - around 550 (increasing late evening/overnight)
CAPE - peaking over 2,000 (large area over 1,000)
LI - around -10

I´m a little out of the business. Can you post a map/table, where those values are shown, please ?

[RL3AO]

Heres the 3km helicity from the WRF.


SB CAPE GFS

[Bunkertor]

Thank you, RL

[RL3AO]

The cell in Roosevelt Co., NM is entering that small area of 500 to 1000 j/kg CAPE. I'm thinking if anything will try do develop, it will be in the next 15 minutes. Unlikely though.

[RL3AO]

They issued an SVR on that cell. It had 60kts of rotation a few minutes ago, but thats weakening now. Looks like we are coming to an end of the appetizer. Main course starts Tuesday.

[Bunkertor]

Heres the 3km helicity from the WRF.


SB CAPE GFS

Those maps are easy to read, but i got stuck at the wrf. Can you provide me a link ?

[RL3AO]

Its one of those sites where you can't provide a direct link, so I'll explain to you how to get there.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Along the top, you can select the diffent models. In the RUC, WRF, and GFS you can select zoomed in areas of the country. If you select "SP" (for Southern Plains) in the GFS or WRF, it opens the latest model run zoomed on the southern part of the country.

EDIT: Or you could just use the drop down menus in the middle. I missed that.

Once you choose the model, on the left side it opens all the different images and times. Its an amazing site for models.