Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#41 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Apr 02, 2010 7:37 am

There was a period of hail (dime-sized) and gusty winds on the order of about 50mph as the storms rolled through my area.
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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#42 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 02, 2010 7:51 am

Stay Safe up there EWG. FWD Aviation Update gives some clues to the difficulties that forecasters are having with guidance and timing of the dryline/front...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
643 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF TSTM
ACTIVITY THAT LOOKS TO MOVE THRU TAF SITES TODAY. THE GRAVITY WAVE
THAT PROMPTED THE VEERING OF THE WINDS IN THE 09Z AMENDMENTS HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND THEREFORE REMOVED THIS GROUP FROM THE
BEGINNING OF THE 12Z TAFS. IN TERMS OF TSTM ACTIVITY...BASED ON
11Z LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF SCATTERED STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE METROPLEX AROUND
14Z. IF TSTM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LIKELY SOME FAIRLY
WEAK/UNORGANIZED TSTMS WILL MOVE THRU THE METROPLEX IN THE 14 TO
16Z TIMEFRAME AND THEN CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE HYBRID MOVES THROUGH NORTH TX. LOOKING AT THE
09Z RUC AND 06Z NAM BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS A STRONG UPPER VORT MAX
MOVES ACRS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY OCCUR IF TSTM ACTIVITY DIMINISHES OFF TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING. IF THE FRONT/DRYLINE SLOW DOWN...TSTM ACTIVITY JUST AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WOULD LIKELY BE MORE ORGANIZED IN NATURE AND HAVE
SOME POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SVR WX IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL OR
DAMAGING WINDS. AT FORECAST TIME IT WAS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH
SOLUTION WAS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE PLACED
VCTS IN METROPLEX TAF SITES FROM 15 TO 21Z AND THEN TEMPOED IN THE
17 TO 19Z TIMEFRAME ANTICIPATING SOME SLOW DOWN/RESPONSE TO THE
STRONG UPPER FORCING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BEHIND THE
DRYLINE VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO TAF SITES AND
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#43 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 02, 2010 7:57 am

Wind Damage Reports in OK so far...

1220 UNK 1 SE CUSHING PAYNE OK 3597 9675 ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOME AND ADJOINING CARPORT. REPORTED BY CUSHING EM. (OUN)
1225 58 3 NNE SPARKS LINCOLN OK 3565 9680 (OUN)
1226 UNK 4 N CHANDLER LINCOLN OK 3577 9688 SEVERAL SHEDS BLOWN OVER. SEVERAL POWER LINES WERE ALSO BLOWN DOWN. ONE DOWNED LINE CAUSED A SMALL GRASS FIRE. (OUN)
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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#44 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:05 am

SPC Update expands the Slight Risk Area...

Image

Image

Image

Image

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT FRI APR 02 2010

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR E
TX...ERN OK...MO...AR..AND WRN MS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE
NEWD FROM ERN SD TO WRN ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT AND REMNANT DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS...AS THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS EWD FROM ERN NM/W TX
THIS MORNING TO AR BY TONIGHT.

...N TX INTO CENTRAL/NE OK THIS MORNING...
AN ONGOING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS /ROOTED NEAR THE GROUND/ WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AND MOVE EWD THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE REMNANT DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SUPPORTED
BY A BELT OF ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH IS MOVING EWD PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE
BACKING/ STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT NOTED IN REGIONAL PROFILER PLOTS
ACROSS OK/TX. MEANWHILE...AN INFLUX OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF
60-65 F ACROSS TX/OK BENEATH THE REMNANTS OF A STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATE PLUME WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 1000-1500
J PER KG/ TO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING. DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND/OR
BOWING STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING WHILE THE LLJ REMAINS
QUITE STRONG ACROSS N TX AND CENTRAL/ERN OK.

...E TX/ERN OK/WRN AR/MO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
THE REMAINS OF THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY DURING
THE AFTERNOON FROM E TX NWD ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD...AND AS THE W TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH
REACHES CENTRAL TX AND DOWNSTREAM ASCENT STRENGTHENS. WARM SECTOR
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /MLCAPE VALUES AOB 1000
J PER KG/...BUT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
EMBEDDED BOWING/ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THIS CONVECTION WILL
THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS LA/AR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND
NWD/NEWD ACROSS MO/IL...THOUGH THE SEVERE STORM THREAT FARTHER N AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.

...LA/WRN MS OVERNIGHT...
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT EWD/ENEWD OVER NRN LA/AR
OVERNIGHT AND CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR. SOME CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL HELP
MAINTAIN INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ROOTED AT OR NEAR
THE GROUND. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS CONVECTION REACHES THE MS
RIVER IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 04/02/2010
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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#45 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:08 am

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
804 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

OKC037-111-113-117-143-021315-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-100402T1315Z/
OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-CREEK OK-TULSA OK-PAWNEE OK-
804 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN PAWNEE...TULSA...
EASTERN CREEK...SOUTHERN OSAGE AND NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE COUNTIES
CONTINUES...

AT 801 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM WESTPORT TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF KELLYVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WINDS NEAR
50 MPH WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MOUNDS...
SAPULPA AND KIEFER.
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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#46 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:09 am

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KSC019-049-073-125-205-207-021345-
/O.NEW.KICT.SV.W.0004.100402T1255Z-100402T1345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
755 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
EASTERN ELK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
SOUTHERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 845 AM CDT

* AT 751 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF SEVERY TO ELK
FALLS TO CHAUTAUQUA...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EUREKA...CANEY...FREDONIA...INDEPENDENCE...COFFEYVILLE...
NEODESHA...CHERRYVALE...YATES CENTER...LONGTON...HAVANA...ELK
CITY...FALL RIVER...TYRO...DEARING...TORONTO...LIBERTY...ALTOONA...
BUFFALO...NEOSHO FALLS AND NIOTAZE.
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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#47 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:20 am

Image

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT FRI APR 02 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021259Z - 021430Z

HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NE TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW
ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING ON HOW THE
SITUATION UNFOLDS THIS MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY INITIATING WEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX ALONG A COLD FRONT AND ON THE WRN EDGE OF A CORRIDOR OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS NE TX ARE STEADILY
INCREASING AND SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S F AHEAD OF THE STORMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN
EAST TX. MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THE LOW-LEVEL JET NNEWD ACROSS NE TX
THIS MORNING SUGGESTING LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY IF A LINE CAN ORGANIZE. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CORES.

..BROYLES.. 04/02/2010


ATTN...WFO...FWD...
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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#48 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:45 am

Image

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0828 AM CDT FRI APR 02 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN KS/WRN AND NRN MO/WRN AND CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021328Z - 021500Z

IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED...AT LEAST IN THE NEAR
TERM...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF APPROACHING LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND
15-18Z. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT FORCING WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT AS
IT DEVELOPS ACROSS AND AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN/LEADING EDGE OF A
NARROW PRE-FRONTAL TONGUE OF WEAK GULF MOISTURE RETURN.

..KERR.. 04/02/2010


ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#49 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 02, 2010 9:01 am

Perhaps a bit more daytime heating than previously thought as stratus deck is not that thick and a little destabilization could get things firing.

Image

Image
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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#50 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 02, 2010 9:05 am

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
846 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ALLEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
NEOSHO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT

* AT 841 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEOSHO FALLS TO THAYER...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUMBOLDT...IOLA...ERIE...ST. PAUL...LA HARPE...GAS...MORAN...
BASSETT...SOUTH MOUND...IOLA AIRPORT...STARK...SAVONBURG...ELSMORE
AND MILDRED.
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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#51 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 02, 2010 9:08 am

Wind Damage Reports from KS...

1250 70 HOWARD ELK KS 3747 9626 (ICT)
1255 UNK HOWARD ELK KS 3747 9626 ESTIMATED 70 MPH WINDS WITH DAMAGE TO A PRIVATE FENCE AND SHEET METAL DEBRI ON THE GROUND. (ICT)
1344 60 4 WSW CHANUTE NEOSHO KS 3766 9552 (ICT)
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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#52 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 02, 2010 9:14 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
904 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DOUGLAS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 930 AM CDT

* AT 859 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GLOBE...OR 11 MILES WEST OF BALDWIN CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 70 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLEASANT GROVE...
VINLAND...
CLINTON...
LAWRENCE...
EUDORA...
LECOMPTON...
PERRY...
WILLIAMSTOWN...
OSKALOOSA...
MCLOUTH...
WINCHESTER...

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 192 AND 206.
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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#53 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 02, 2010 9:30 am

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
918 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
LINN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
MIAMI COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
WESTERN BATES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
WESTERN CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT

* AT 915 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM RANTOUL TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLUE MOUND...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OSAWATOMIE...PLEASANTON...PAOLA...LA CYGNE...SPRING HILL...
LOUISBURG...LEAWOOD...BELTON...GRANDVIEW...PECULIAR...HUME...
FONTANA...DREXEL...CLEVELAND...FREEMAN...WORLAND...FOSTER...
HILLSDALE...AMORET AND WAGSTAFF.
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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#54 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 02, 2010 9:36 am

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
927 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

KSC091-107-121-MOC013-037-095-021445-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100402T1445Z/
JOHNSON KS-MIAMI KS-LINN KS-BATES MO-CASS MO-JACKSON MO-
927 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LINN...MIAMI
AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON...WESTERN CASS AND WESTERN BATES COUNTIES IN
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

AT 925 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM PAOLA TO MOUND CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLEASANTON...LA CYGNE...SPRING HILL...LOUISBURG...BELTON...
LEAWOOD...GRANDVIEW...PECULIAR...HUME...DREXEL...CLEVELAND...
FREEMAN...HILLSDALE...NEW LANCASTER...WORLAND...WAGSTAFF...
FOSTER...CHILES...AMORET AND AMSTERDAM.
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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#55 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 02, 2010 9:52 am

Image

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0238
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0935 AM CDT FRI APR 02 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN OK/WRN AR/NE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 42...

VALID 021435Z - 021530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 42
CONTINUES.

IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED IN THE NEAR
TERM...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES...NOW APPEARS TO BE LIFTING INTO PARTS OF THE
MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...PRE-FRONTAL LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION PROBABLY WOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS STORM
DEVELOPMENT EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AND THE
ARKLATEX LATE THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING...SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN AT LEAST AROUND 45-50 KT THROUGH 18-20Z. SO A CONTINUING
SEVERE THREAT IS A CONCERN. BUT...IT MAY BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS
BEFORE SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION IS ABLE TO
OCCUR. MOISTURE RETURN MAY NOT BE A PROBLEM...BUT CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO SLOW SURFACE HEATING.

..KERR.. 04/02/2010


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#56 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 02, 2010 9:53 am

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
946 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN MIAMI COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
BATES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
WESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
WESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT

* AT 944 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FREEMAN TO 6 MILES EAST OF HUME...AND MOVING EAST AT
60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PECULIAR...RAYMORE...RICH HILL...ADRIAN...BUTLER...HARRISONVILLE...
GREENWOOD...PLEASANT HILL...LAKE LOTAWANA...GARDEN CITY...HOLDEN...
ARCHIE...LAKE WINNEBAGO...EAST LYNNE...LONE JACK...CREIGHTON...
KINGSVILLE...MONTROSE...URICH AND PASSAIC.
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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#57 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 02, 2010 9:54 am

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
944 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
EASTERN WYANDOTTE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...
CLAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
PLATTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN RAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT

* AT 940 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM TRACY TO KANSAS CITY KANSAS TO GRANDVIEW...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SMITHVILLE...PLEASANT VALLEY...OAKVIEW AND GLADSTONE AROUND 950 AM
CDT.
TRIMBLE...EDGERTON...LIBERTY AND GLENAIRE AROUND 955 AM CDT.
LAKE TAPAWINGO AND BLUE SPRINGS AROUND 1000 AM CDT.
PLATTSBURG...MISSOURI CITY...KEARNEY AND HOLT AROUND 1005 AM CDT.
LATHROP AROUND 1010 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
OAKS...OAKWOOD...OAKWOOD PARK...HOOVER...RIDGELY...RANDOLPH...
MAYWOOD...UNITY VILLAGE...BIRMINGHAM AND PRATHERSVILLE.
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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#58 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:10 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1004 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CALDWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
WESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
EASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
DEKALB COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTH CENTRAL HARRISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
RAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 959 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH
.
THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CLARKSDALE TO KEARNEY TO LAKE
TAPAWINGO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE
HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS LINE OF STORM. SEEK SHELTER NOW!

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OAK GROVE...LATHROP...BUCKNER...EXCELSIOR SPRINGS...LAWSON...
MAYSVILLE...ODESSA...CAMERON...RICHMOND...LEXINGTON...
HIGGINSVILLE...HAMILTON...GALLATIN...SIBLEY...OSBORN...EXCELSIOR
ESTATES...CRYSTAL LAKES...LEVASY...WOODS HEIGHTS AND ORRICK.
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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#59 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:17 am

This is in the Kansas City Metro area...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1012 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

MOC025-033-047-049-061-063-081-095-107-117-177-021530-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-100402T1530Z/
DEKALB MO-JACKSON MO-LAFAYETTE MO-CLAY MO-RAY MO-CARROLL MO-
CLINTON MO-CALDWELL MO-LIVINGSTON MO-DAVIESS MO-HARRISON MO-
1012 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
HARRISON...DAVIESS...SOUTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON...CALDWELL...CLINTON...
WESTERN CARROLL...RAY...EASTERN CLAY...LAFAYETTE...EASTERN JACKSON
AND DEKALB COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT...

AT 1009 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR...TRAINED
SPOTTERS AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF MAYSVILLE TO LAWSON TO OAK
GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH AND HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. SEEK SHELTER NOW.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAYSVILLE...ODESSA...CAMERON...RICHMOND...LEXINGTON...HAMILTON...
HIGGINSVILLE...GALLATIN...WOODS HEIGHTS...ORRICK...WELLINGTON...
POLO...HENRIETTA...MAYVIEW...KINGSTON...COWGILL...PATTONSBURG...
HARDIN...BRAYMER AND NORBORNE.
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Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

#60 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:19 am

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1015 AM CDT FRI APR 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0958 AM TSTM WND GST 2 N LEES SUMMIT 38.95N 94.38W
04/02/2010 E70 MPH JACKSON MO NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE PIECE OF SHEET METAL BLEW ACROSS I-470 AND TWO CARS
BLOWN OFF THE ROAD
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