Texas Spring 2012

[weatherdude1108]

Front just blew through North Austin. Windy! Some rain here and there.

[Rgv20]

A little preview of today's afternoon discussion from Brownsville..

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012/

..FROM SPRING TO WINTER IN JUST A FEW HOURS...

SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WIND IS THE WORD IN THE LOWER VALLEY AND
SOME MIX OUT OF CLOUDS HAS BROUGHT GUSTS FREQUENTLY ABOVE 40 MPH
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 30 MPH FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. WINDS HAVE BEEN A SHADE LESS OF LATE IN
CENTRAL HIDALGO COUNTY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO TRIM BACK ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK FOR THE HOT FORECAST ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS...LOWER 90S LOOKS GOOD...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT ON THE BEACH.

BIG CHANGES ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW BUT STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS
INTO SOUTH TEXAS AFTER SUNSET AND REACHES THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AROUND MIDNIGHT. FRONT CONTINUES A STEADY MARCH INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS IT DRIVES TOWARD THE LOWER VALLEY
BORDER...GFS/NAM INDICATE A `WIGGLE` ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS WHICH MAY
BE RELATED TO APPROACH OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WOULD TEND TO
SLOW FRONT JUST A HAIR. NAM HAS MUCH MORE OF A BEND...AND HAVE
DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION SHOWN BY
IMPRESSIVE ISOTHERM PACKING. TRICK TO THE FORECAST IS TIMING OF THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE INCREASED TIMING BY AN HOUR OVER A
LESS-BENDING NAM SOLUTION...AROUND 4 AM IN MCALLEN AND JUST AFTER 6
AM IN BROWNSVILLE.

TEMPERATURES MAY DROP 15 DEGREES IN AN HOUR...CRASHING FROM THE
WARM/HUMID 70 RANGE TO THE MID 50S. AS FOR WEATHER ALONG THE
FRONT...NOT TOO BULLISH ON CONVECTION BUT GFS HAS A BRIEF PERIOD
WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND COLUMN DESTABILIZES SO HAVE LEFT
THUNDER IN FORECAST UNTIL IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERTOP OF THE SHALLOW
NORTHWEST CHILLING WINDS WILL MAKE FOR YET ANOTHER RAW DAY. ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND RANCH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER 40S...WHILE THE VALLEY DIPS TO AROUND
50 OR SO AND HOLDS TIGHT UNDER A LOW OVERCAST PUNCTUATED BY
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE 40 TO 45...PRETTY CHILLY THIS FAR INTO MARCH.

REGARDING THE WINDS...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO 40
MPH IN THE ISOTHERMAL PACKING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW
WILL NOT TRIGGER ANY ADVISORIES. WE MAY ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER THE
SHARP CHANGE AND STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME AREAS WILL BE UP
TO 40 DEGREES COLDER FRIDAY AT 4 PM THAN TODAY AT 4 PM!

[txwxpirate]

I GUESS THIS SAYS IT ALL - HOUSTON GLX NWS DISCO


BASED ON THE MANY PHONE CALLS TODAY...THERE SEEMS TO BE QUITE A
BIT OF CONFUSION AND/OR MISCOMMUNICATION REGARDING RAINFALL &
FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LET`S SEE IF WE CAN BEGIN
CLEARING SOME THINGS UP. I BELIEVE MANY PEOPLE ARE SEEING POTENTIAL
4-DAY RAIN TOTALS BEING ADVERTISED AND POSSIBLY CONFUSING THAT
WITH THAT OF RAINFALL OCCURRING ON A SINGLE DAY OR SHORT TIME
PERIOD. THEY ARE DIFFERENT ANIMALS.

WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTING 2...AND POSSIBLY 3 ROUNDS...OF MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL EPISODES BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY
NIGHT:

1. TONIGHTS FRONT WILL BE ROUND NUMBER ONE.
2. MAY SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSH SW-NE ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PASS CLOSE TO (AND MORE LIKELY
JUST NORTH) OF THE NORTHERN PARTS OF SE TX.
3. EXPECT PROBABLY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EPISODE TO OCCUR
ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA.

SO...THE GROUND WILL PROGRESSIVELY BECOME WETTER WITH TIME WITH
EACH SUBSEQUENT RAINFALL EPISODE. THE LOCATIONS THAT SEE THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLY WILL BE MORE PRONE TO RUNOFF AND
FLASH FLOODING DURING THE LATER TIME PERIODS. AT THIS TIME
LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 59 APPEAR TO BE IN
THE MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO SEE THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FORECASTING PRECISE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS 3 TO 4 DAYS OUT ARE
JUST AN EDUCATED GUESS AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY EVOLVE WITH TIME.
SLIGHT DEVIATIONS OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES, TIMING AND
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY COULD ALTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONE WAY OR THE
OTHER. AVERAGE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE WEEKEND (ADDING UP
#1-3 ABOVE) WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE ONE TO THREE INCHES. DUE TO
FORECAST UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...LOCALIZED 4-7" AMOUNTS (AGAIN
ADDING UP #1-3) ARE A POSSIBILITY DUE TO TRAINING.

AT THE CURRENT TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAYS EVENT MAY CAUSE THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND WOULD BE THE DAY MOST CONCERNED ABOUT
POTENTIAL FLOODING - DUE TO POTENTIALLY SATURATED GROUNDS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND EVALUATE
THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES, ETC.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY BRINGING
AN END TO THE RAINFALL AND SETTING UP A WARM SPRING BREAK WITH
JUST A SLIGHTLY POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISO DAYTIME SHOWERS.

[Snow Deprived365]

Sounds like a busted Houston forecast for the most part. Doesn't look like we will get squat from the front tonight. I was looking forward to this all week in the hopes of Conroe gaining some water. 3-6 inches! 4-8 inches! Ha!

[Ntxw]

Looks like Canadian was the model to follow. 5h Low is stalling in NM and will reform in Northern Mexico and swing across West Texas this weekend. First round of rain done (except for far east Tx). Next heaviest wave should be middle of this weekend along and maybe even just west of I-35 as the main low pressure finally lifts. This is where training could occur from south to north.

[Rgv20]

Some impressive severe thunderstorms have develop across south texas!



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 70
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
900 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 900 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
COTULLA TEXAS TO 130 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF COTULLA TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS /INCLUDING A SUPERCELL/ HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITHIN A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. CAP OBSERVED ON 00Z CRP/BRO SOUNDINGS IS
LIKELY BEING OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY THE STRENGTHENING SLY/SELY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WHICH IS ENHANCING INFLOW INTO THE ONGOING STORMS.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 50-60 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH ATTENDANT THREATS
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28020.


...MEAD



Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
932 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

TXZ248>250-252-253-090445-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-STARR-HIDALGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...
WESLACO
932 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO UPPER VALLEY
NOW...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
BROOKS...HIDALGO...JIM HOGG...STARR AND ZAPATA COUNTIES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OF UP TO 70 MPH. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

$$

54/64

[wxman57]

Sounds like a busted Houston forecast for the most part. Doesn't look like we will get squat from the front tonight. I was looking forward to this all week in the hopes of Conroe gaining some water. 3-6 inches! 4-8 inches! Ha!

Best rain chances were not with the frontal passage. Sunday is the best bet for heavy rain.

[Rgv20]

Yesterday we had a high of 91 and currently this morning we are sitting at 46 with clouds and drizzle....That's a 45 degrees difference!!!

[Portastorm]

The rain is happening pretty much like the models indicated, at least for us in south central Texas.

Not the best day to be flying either, eh?!

I feel for my teenaged son. He and his class were coming back from a school trip to Boston. After a relatively uneventful ride into IAH ... they had to fly on a Dash-8 from IAH to AUS in this weather. Multiple reports of students losing their breakfast/lunches. My son texted me when they landed with a "Aye Carumba." I asked him if they were on the ground and he wrote "Much to my surprise, yes." He then added that he got a plane ride and a trip to Six Flags all in one deal!

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Already close to half an inch here in Frisco, and lots of yellow filling in on the radar all the way down to Brownwood/Waco. Get the ground all nice and soaked for the larger amounts tonight:)

[weatherdude1108]

1.2 inches in my backyard gauge in Cedar Park, TX since this all started. One inch is apparently the benchmark for ponding in my yard.

[jasons2k]

So far I've measured 1.54" from the last two days. The next round is starting-up now...

[Portastorm]

A little more than 1.9 inches at the Portastorm Weather Center in the last 48 hours.

I saw a tweet earlier from JB about how the Texas rains will have big implications on spring/summer weather. I'm guessing this rain should really help us avoid a cockroach death ridge over our heads or at least one which is impossible to break. Sure we'll have our 90s/100s because this is Texas and that is what we do in the summer ... but I'm encouraged that we won't have drought begating drought and intensifying summer high pressure.

[vbhoutex]

A little more than 1.9 inches at the Portastorm Weather Center in the last 48 hours.

I saw a tweet earlier from JB about how the Texas rains will have big implications on spring/summer weather. I'm guessing this rain should really help us avoid a cockroach death ridge over our heads or at least one which is impossible to break. Sure we'll have our 90s/100s because this is Texas and that is what we do in the summer ... but I'm encouraged that we won't have drought begating drought and intensifying summer high pressure.

I find that encouraging in some ways and problematic in another. If we don't have the cockroach death ridge we are more open to the tropics, but that doesn't mean we will have tropical trouble. I don't want another summer like last summer and I don't want tropical trouble either. Can I have my cake and eat it too?

2.01" in the last 48 hours with I'65" of that in the first 24 hrs.

[Portastorm]

This last round of convection dropped another .35 inches of rain on the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County. Because that appears to be the last of it for this event, we ended up with about two and a quarter inches of rainfall. Very nice!

Kudos to the NWS for the forecasts earlier this week of 2-3 inches for the event. They were spot on.

Hope everyone is enjoying this wonderful rainfall, including YOU wxman57!

[KatDaddy]

Awaiting the last round of rainfall to move across the Upper TX Coast. So far the storm total is just over 2" Perhaps some clearing and sun later this afternoon if we are lucky.

[weatherdude1108]

1.65 inches grand total from this event. Sun's out and Spring's greenery/buds/blooms galore. Nice, but bummed about a blurb I saw on our river basin . I know things take time to get us back to normal lake levels, especially after a year like last year. It would require a tropical or El Niño type of pattern for the water deficit to zero itself out:

"The rainfall totals from this system have not translated into any significant runoff anywhere in the Colorado River basin."

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/river_report.html

[vbhoutex]

A little more than 1.9 inches at the Portastorm Weather Center in the last 48 hours.

I saw a tweet earlier from JB about how the Texas rains will have big implications on spring/summer weather. I'm guessing this rain should really help us avoid a cockroach death ridge over our heads or at least one which is impossible to break. Sure we'll have our 90s/100s because this is Texas and that is what we do in the summer ... but I'm encouraged that we won't have drought begating drought and intensifying summer high pressure.

I find that encouraging in some ways and problematic in another. If we don't have the cockroach death ridge we are more open to the tropics, but that doesn't mean we will have tropical trouble. I don't want another summer like last summer and I don't want tropical trouble either. Can I have my cake and eat it too?

2.01" in the last 48 hours with I'65" of that in the first 24 hrs.

Final from this event appears to be right around 3.5"(too lazy to empty the gauge now) with another 1"+ coming this am during church in a good old fashioned "frog strangler" that probably put down over 2" in about 45 minutes while I was in worship at church. It put down over an inch at my house. Love catching the drought and wiping it out or almost out, but we do need some drying out now. It is so weird to see water standing in my yard after last year.

edit 3/12-final was 3.49"

[jasons2k]

I've had another 2.73" since yesterday. That brings my storm total up to 4.27" so far.

[wxman57]

This last round of convection dropped another .35 inches of rain on the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County. Because that appears to be the last of it for this event, we ended up with about two and a quarter inches of rainfall. Very nice!

Kudos to the NWS for the forecasts earlier this week of 2-3 inches for the event. They were spot on.

Hope everyone is enjoying this wonderful rainfall, including YOU wxman57!

Yeah, GREAT weather for bicycling - with pontoons. Only 4.21" of rain over the weekend and almost 22" for the year. At least now we're back on DST so I can bike after work during the week when it's always warm and sunny.