Severe weather outbreak - June 12-13 - Midwest, Mid-Atlantic

[Bunkertor]

O Oh

[Bunkertor]

486
WFUS53 KDMX 122139
TORDMX
IAC069-122215-
/O.NEW.KDMX.TO.W.0015.130612T2139Z-130612T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
439 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 436 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF
BELMOND...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHEFFIELD...HAMPTON...LATIMER...GENEVA AND HANSELL.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 167 AND 177.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

[CrazyC83]

I disagree with the PDS Severe watch...I would have gone with a Tornado Watch, at least covering Chicago and across Lake Michigan, I think the tornado threat is high enough personally.

[CrazyC83]

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
LAKE ERIE
LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM
400 PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
NUMEROUS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST OF FINDLAY
OHIO TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF RACINE WISCONSIN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 298...WW 299...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
A COMPACT BUT PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACTS ON A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. ONGOING
CONVECTION NEAR A SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT...FROM IOWA EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...EXISTS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND ASCENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW MORE HOURS OF TORNADO POTENTIAL IN WATCH 298.
EVENTUALLY STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION WITH
ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE DERECHO OR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT. THIS TRANSITION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA AND SRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO EARLY EVENING.
PRIOR TO THIS EVOLUTION THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO POSSIBILITIES
WILL BE GREATEST WITHIN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF WATCH 300. WITH
TIME...MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP AS THE
MCS RACES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MI/NORTHERN IND...AND INTO NORTHWEST
OH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28045.


...CARBIN

[MGC]

Cell west of Chicago is showing some rotation. Lookout Chicago!.....MGC

[Bunkertor]

6 dots ( counties ) under Torwarn simultanuously.

Things are picking up rapidly. I suggest to post only Confirmed.

[Cyclenall]

Now 8 TOR warnings at once, some of them were in ID though.



That line of storms that likely will become the potent MCS/Derecho later, is it just me or is it breaking up into more discrete cells now? I know that the south flank of the line is just forming and has cells that are going TOR warned rapidly but even the main part looked to be more fragmented.

TOR warning still on supercell heading in Chicago's direction.

[Bunkertor]

Moin

http://whotv.com/weather/iowas-weather-channel/

[brunota2003]

Looking at the storms firing, that lake breeze may be a fly in the ointment. It will kick the storms around it, question is, will all the general storms in that complex take a SE component and stay on that heading? If it does, the line could impact areas further SW than originally thought?

[brunota2003]

New tornado watch:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0301.html

Looks like they're thinking about flipping the PDS Severe watch to a tornado watch...as it is sandwiched between two TOR watches now.

[brunota2003]

Warning that covers the radar site KLOT near Lake Michigan...looks like it might be beginning:

* AT 526 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH AURORA TO 7 MILES NORTH OF MORRIS...AND
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THE ROTATION WITH THESE STORMS HAS SHOWN
SIGNS OF WEAKENING...HOWEVER THE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE LOOKING
MORE SIGNIFICANT.

THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 80 MPH WIND GUSTS.

[CrazyC83]

Probs are 50/30 on the new watch.

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 301
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MARYLAND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO
SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 630 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
MANSFIELD OHIO TO 25 MILES EAST OF MORGANTOWN WEST VIRGINIA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 298...WW 299...WW 300...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING OVER CENTRAL OH ALONG A
WEAK WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL..DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
THROUGH THE EVENING. 21Z ILN SOUNDING VERIFIED VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE...AND WILL ONLY
STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.


...HART

[cycloneye]

Oh boy.

BREAKING: City of Chicago cancels all outdoor activities, including events at Millennium Park due to #SevereWeather -

[Cyclenall]

Oh boy.

BREAKING: City of Chicago cancels all outdoor activities, including events at Millennium Park due to #SevereWeather -

Yes, oh boy is right for the riots that might start as a result of all that being canceled for some rain. A whole baseball game in a stadium cancelled for thunder-showers and rain, first I've seen this happen .

[CrazyC83]

Transition to a QLCS/bow echo underway?

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...IA...SE MN...SRN WI...IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 298...

VALID 122340Z - 130115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 298 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 298 OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADOES...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1002 MB LOW OVER NW IL
WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NE
IL INTO NRN IND. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED SW OF CHICAGO
WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AND A CLUSTER OF SEVERE
STORMS IS ONGOING. STORM COVERAGE HAS MARKEDLY INCREASED ACROSS NRN
IL AND SE WI OVER THE LAST HOUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE HRRR HAS SHOWN THIS
INTENSIFICATION AND GRADUALLY MOVES A DEVELOPING LINEAR MCS ESEWD
TOWARD LAKE MI OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME TORNADOES.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS ONGOING IN NE IA
EXTENDING NWD INTO FAR SE MN AND SW WI. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED TO
NORTH OF A SFC LOW AND IS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CNTRL
IA. IN SPITE OF THIS...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70 F AND MLCAPE
VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE ROTATING STORMS.

..BROYLES/HART.. 06/12/2013


ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON 40858984 41409229 42209420 43749378 44069167 43458859
42318793 41148800 40738899 40858984

[brunota2003]

I don't know...it looks like the cells near the tip of Lake Michigan are trying to become isolated again. They were lining up, but.

[Cyclenall]

I don't know...it looks like the cells near the tip of Lake Michigan are trying to become isolated again. They were lining up, but.

Yeah it seems like that keeps happening. I haven't ever seen that type of behavior up near the Great Lakes like that, linear systems seem to always take over and mess the tornado potential up. This is a discrete mode.

[Ntxw]

Well we're starting to lose max heating of the day and most of the TOR warnings are ahead of the complex in Ohio and Indiana, one in Illinois for the lone cells. Hopefully the max event for today is behind us and we look towards tomorrow. I'm not sure the high risk was really met today but it wasn't really for tornadoes so I guess the wind factor did materialize.

[brunota2003]

Oh I think today is just beginning. There are a bunch of storms firing up down in the direction of ILX...and there is a LOT of untapped energy left all across the region.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

No more high risk.