Texas Summer 2016

[TheProfessor]

these tropical rains never fail to impress me with their intensity.

[Ntxw]

DFW has been getting pounded the past couple of hours. And ground truth is verifying what FW has been posting. Even if the radar reflectivity isn't impressive, they are very efficient rainfall makers.

[jasons2k]

I'm concerned about flooding across many parts of Texas tonight. I've been studying surface observations, radar, satellite and especially the water vapor loop, I notice three key features to watch this evening and overnight:

1) At the surface in Southeast Texas, we have cooler E and SE winds, mostly south and east of US 59. To the west and southwest, the air has been heated - 88 in Wharton, 87 in Victoria, etc. This is setting up a convergence line with storms possibly firing along this boundary. We need to watch for training tonight from any bands that setup from these surface convergence zones. There is another such boundary/outflow south of San Antonio as well, pushing south. You can see it on the San Antonio radar loop.

2) On Water vapor, you can see a plume of moisture coming in from the SW, near Corpus, with the next approaching short wave. That is poised to move across Southeast Texas this evening and into tonight.

3) The Upper Level Low is moving into Texas, near Del Rio, and is moving off to the east. Expect bands of rain to wrap around it overnight, with flooding rains under the feeder bands and core of the ULL.

In summary, keep a close watch out. All the ingredients appear to be in place for some flooding rains across Central, SC, & SE Texas and adjacent areas this evening and tonight.

[gboudx]

What is over the DFW area? Spin is very evident on radar. If the ULL is still out west, I'm wondering what has been meandering over this area. Looks like an elongated circulation from about Brownwood to south of Dallas county.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Surface low maybe? That is the area where uper level divergence is greatest.

[Brent]

Most likely it's the surface low:

[Brent]

Breaking News at Fort Hood:

WFAA-TV @wfaachannel8 9m9 minutes ago
Fort Hood officials say 3 soldiers were killed and 6 are missing after their vehicle overturned in floodwaters

[wxman57]

Not much of a "summer" in Houston. It's June 2 and we've yet to hit 90 degrees, which happens to be our AVERAGE high for this time of year. Could do with a lot less rainfall, too. Not good biking weather. Relief is in sight for at least Sunday-Thursday. More flooding the next few days, though.

[gboudx]

This MCV over Dallas county is making the weather very tropical like here in Rockwall.

[Ntxw]

This MCV over Dallas county is making the weather very tropical like here in Rockwall.

I agree. Very little thunder or lightning just a steady rain and even though it's in the 70s it's humid. But for June 2 I'll take it!

We have to watch the area that keeps building in place especially with nighttime hours approaching near the vicinity of the surface low. If it indeed has gone warm core.

[TarrantWx]

The radar loop over DFW looks pretty impressive right now. It looks almost like a tropical storm centered directly over Dallas county with bands feeding around it. If that goes warm core over DFW overnight there could be some big problems.

[Brent]

The radar loop over DFW looks pretty impressive right now. It looks almost like a tropical storm centered directly over Dallas county with bands feeding around it. If that goes warm core over DFW overnight there could be some big problems.

I really wish we could save some of this rain for August... this is pretty ridiculous.

Good news... even when it dries out next week... temps don't look to be any worse than average and will be mostly a little below average. No signs of any heat waves.

[1900hurricane]

Not sure there is much risk in this thing dropping mega totals anymore, at least in the near term. Low level flow has to go around a long way for it to get to the center. It actually looks pretty close to being in cyclostrophic balance.

With that said, the 18Z TTU WRF does get pretty aggressive with totals again late tomorrow night across the hardest hit areas of SE TX (Brazos and San Jacinto watersheds).

[Ntxw]

Everybody now is above normal in both annual rainfall and month to date. Going to be difficult to get feedback heat waves at least for the next month.

[Brent]

GFS 0.03" of rain total at DFW after today through 384 hours... pattern flip anyone?

people are gonna be wishing for rain before long...

[gpsnowman]

GFS 0.03" of rain total at DFW after today through 384 hours... pattern flip anyone?

people are gonna be wishing for rain before long...

Yeah give it a hot week. I'm wishing for rain now!! Looks like it is over for now. The inevitable is coming and we all know it. Like Ntxw said, all the rain could keep June somewhat "mild", but prolonged dryness will make the rest of the summer miserable. All the rain and cooler temps have been great. One thing this weather pattern has produced that I will miss is the incredible cloud formations. From dawn to dusk the tropical clouds have made for a gorgeous sky the last few weeks. Gray bottoms with flowering cotton caps is a sight to behold for weather lovers. Now for the approaching heat........

[Ntxw]

That disturbed gyre in the Carib 93L? Is probably why our rain chances dwindle. Rarely is good if there is a gulf system and not heading for us. They bring subsidence. Hopefully it passes quick and we can shift formation over to the EPAC

In ENSO news, trades have weakened thus significant strengthening of La Nina is not likely soon. The natural cycles and how strong Ninas start fast and hard, we're likely looking at a weak to lower end moderate event.

[JDawg512]

How are the last 2 weeks of June looking in the models? I haven't had a chance to look lately.

[weatherdude1108]

We had 2 inches of rain yesterday evening in about 4 hours. Had another 0.2 today with passing heavy showers. Looks like sunshine all the way through next Saturday to dry us out a bit. It will give me time to wax the cars. I'm hoping we get normal rains the rest of Summer.

[1900hurricane]

Northern parts of Harris County have seen a year's worth of rain in the past 90 days (ending today).