Another wet week for Southeast, Texas.....Any thoughts?

[stormcloud]

I would not be surprised to see a few isolated 8" before the weekend. There is still some disagreement between models about the low actually developing and moving up the coast, but if the GFS is anywhere close, then some areas may be in trouble. The HPC has totals of a foot of rain over southeast Texas between now (Tuesday) and Sunday morning. Let's hope that it's WAY over done....

[vbhoutex]

I would not be surprised to see a few isolated 8" before the weekend. There is still some disagreement between models about the low actually developing and moving up the coast, but if the GFS is anywhere close, then some areas may be in trouble. The HPC has totals of a foot of rain over southeast Texas between now (Tuesday) and Sunday morning. Let's hope that it's WAY over done....

YIKES!!! We are in major trouble if that comes to fruition!!! 8" will be bad enough!!!! I think a foot of rain would cause major flooding in many areas of SE TX!!!

[Suzi Q]

I've had 3.75" inches since yesterday. 2" of that has been since 8:00 last night. I don't even wanna think about another 8 inches! Hopefully I didn't get my flood insurance too late!

[KatDaddy]

Wow this is crazy.

http://itg1.meteor.wisc.edu/wxp_images/mrf/

This could eventually become a very serious and widespread flood event.
Imagine adding a tropical system to our saturation level after 10 days of rains.

[KatDaddy]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
601 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-241100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
601 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SATURATED
SOILS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. RIVERS
AND LARGE STREAMS REMAIN SWOLLEN FROM PREVIOUS RAINS...MEANING THERE
IS A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR RIVER FLOODING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE FLASH
FLOODS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A WET TROPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND.THE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.

[KatDaddy]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
600 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH
EFFECTIVE TODAY AND TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO WILLIS TO CORRIGAN. THE WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN
JACINTO...WALLER...AND WHARTON.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAVE
AVERAGED 1 TO 3 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...
WITH SOME TOTALS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF JACKSON...
MATAGORDA...BRAZORIA...AND GALVESTON COUNTIES.

THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF
5 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS RAINFALL...THESE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

[Yankeegirl]

It was nice last night.... It rained, drizzled for the most part of last night... It was also rumbeling from the distant thunder, and every now and then some flashes... Nice and relaxing sleeping weather! The local met just said we have a 70% chance of rain today and and 80% chance of rain tonight and tomorrow... So I guess we arent done with this mess... Well at least I dont have to water the grass!!

[PTrackerLA]

We've had some rain overnight and it's raining right now with lots more on the way. We now have a flash flood watch in effect and our chances of rain stay above 60% through Sunday ! Our forecast discussion sounds pretty ominous as well.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
338 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING
ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG LOW LEVEL COASTAL TROF AND AIDED BY
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING NORTHWEST ALONG COAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING SW-NE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEAR TEXARKANA TO AUSTIN.
AFOREMENTIONED TROF POSITIONED ALONG TEXAS COAST WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE INDICATED BY MSAS. REGION REMAINS UNDER A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH RIDGING
ACROSS GULF AND MODEST POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROF EXTENDING
FROM MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THOUGH EAST TEXAS INTO OLD MEXICO. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE...MRH'S HAVE RISEN TO 70 PERCENT PLUS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT-TERM...PRECIPITABLE WATER SIMILARLY PROGGED BY MODELS TO
MAINTAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WITH HIGH
PW'S...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E RIDGE IN PLACE...AND
INCOMING SHORTWAVE/S...WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY. WITH THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINS IN TROPICAL AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY LOW FFG FROM RECENT
RAINS...HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
ENTIRE AREA. SIMILARLY HIGH POPS AHEAD FOR THURSDAY AS WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WITH POSSIBILITY OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG BOUNDARY PER GFS. ALSO
NOTED SIGNIFICANT UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING THURSDAY WITH FEATURE.

&&

.LONG-TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVER-ALL WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. DEEP MOISTURE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH CHANCES OF RAIN REMAINING WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS.

[GalvestonDuck]

I don't get email weather alerts at home since I'm not on the computer constantly like I am here at work. So sorry this is late, but I thought the Hou/Galv Skywarn group might be interested:

WWUS54 KHGX 222320
SVSHOU
TXC071-167-201-230000-

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
619 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

AT 610 PM CDT THE PUBLIC AND LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
AT FM 517 AND FM 646 IN DICKINSON. THE STORM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
FUNNEL CLOUD WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. RESIDENTS ON THE
WEST END OF GALVESTON BAY FROM SEABROOK TO LA PORTE AND ALONG THE
NORTH END OF TRINITY BAY SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER FOR
POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUDS.

FUNNEL CLOUDS SOMETIMES TOUCH DOWN AND BECOME TORNADOES WITH LITTLE
OR NO WARNING. RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED
TO SEEK SHELTER IF FUNNEL CLOUDS OR TORNADOES ARE OBSERVED.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2958 9522 2955 9513 2946 9496 2988 9460
2989 9510

[FWBHurricane]

Corpus Christi, Tx is having some major flooding. Hundreds of cars are stalling, the water is covering most of the streets. They had some bad thunderstorms last night.

[GalvestonDuck]

Shortly after I hit the sack last night (around 10:30 or so), the torrential stuff hit...and hard. I woke up a few times during the night to loud thunder and cracks of lightning. And the power flickered off twice.

Nothing now but sprinkles although there's another heavy band moving into the area in about an hour or so.

Time to get out the cans of mosquito repellant because now they're gonna be hatching!

[GalvestonDuck]

Hou/Galv rainfall totals:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/FWR/HYDHOU

[vbhoutex]

When I left my house this morning we were at 2.10" for the system so far. That is well above the 0.40" reported at the apparently faulty Bunker Hill station in that report which isn't very far from my house.

[crazy4disney]

7.4 inches at Cowart Creek certainly doesn't surprise me...
*wrings out her tennis shoes*

And more rain coming? Yay. I have a question about the forecast... the tropical outlook mentions a wave over the central Caribbean moving WNW. Development isn't expected, but could this cause more problems for us, especially in light of the closed low off of Brownsville that some of the models are forecasting? I'm not sure of what the steering currents are or are supposed to be later in the week, and I'm just curious and trying to better understand how it all works.

-gina-

[vbhoutex]

The closed off low off of Brownsville, IF it develops, will be the first one we need to worry about. The one over the Central Caribbean would be later than that by a little IF it survives to make it that far, which imo is doubtful at this time.

[crazy4disney]

Okay, gotcha. So what is the deal with this closed off low? How many models are calling for that, and what could it mean to us here?

Sorry for so many questions...

[PTrackerLA]

Hmmm...where is all the rain? All I see on the radars right now is light rain and drizzle from south Louisiana to west of Houston. Seems like all the storms offshore that have tried to make it onshore have just fizzled and with extensive cloud cover and a temp of only 78 I'm starting to wonder whether or not we'll see the 100% chance of rain today. Could this be another way overforecasted system? We shall see but I'll be watching the radars this afternoon for redevelopment.

[vbhoutex]

Okay, gotcha. So what is the deal with this closed off low? How many models are calling for that, and what could it mean to us here?

Sorry for so many questions...

So far the only one I know of is the GFS, which means it may be way overblown. I have not had a chance to check others yet.

If it happens and if it moves up the coast as progged, it could mean a lot more rain for us because we would be on the NE side(the wet or dirty side) of it as it moves up the coast.

[stormcloud]

Re: Tropical Wave. The HPC maps have a tropical wave coming out of the Caribbean moving northwestward toward Texas next week. If that does indeed verify, then coastal areas of Texas will be in for a whole lot more rain early next week.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

P.S. Why did this thread go into the 'Cinemascope' mode?

[crazy4disney]

And to think I was recently complaining about my yard being all dry... Here's the latest discussion:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
230 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

.DISCUSSION..
KHGX RADAR BEGINNING TO GET MORE ACTIVE AS A CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SW ZONES AND IS SLOWLY ADVANCING N/NE. THERE IS SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED JUST NW OF THE AREA AS WELL. A COUNTER CLOCKWISE SPIN IS VERY APPARENT ON VIS SAT LOOP...CENTERED JUST SW OF THE AREA AND SHOWS THE LOCATION OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WHICH IS AIDING THE ABOVE MENTIONED CONVECTION. AS HEATING CONTINUES AND THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO RECOVER FROM THE EARLY MORNING RAIN...WE SHOULD BE IN FOR INCREASING SHWR/TSTM COVERAGE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFT AND INTO THE EVE HOURS.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING HIGH POPS AND HIGHEST QPF OVER SE TX THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AM CONCERNED THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL EXTEND INTO THE NW ZONES BASED ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE VERY HIGH PW AIR AND MODEL FORECAST OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES TONIGHT.

ALL OF THE CWA IS SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT AND THEREFORE SUBJECT TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. STILL THINK THAT THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON LINE. SET-UP IS NOT EXACTLY THE SAME AS YESTERDAY EVE AS THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST TO PROVIDE CONVERGENCE ALONG A COASTAL TROF. AVG AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THIS AFT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS WHAT IS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.

AM UNSURE IF THE FLOOD THREAT WILL EXTEND MUCH INTO THU MORN. WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAKE THE DECISION ON WHETHER TO EXTEND THE WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN GOOD CHCS FOR RAIN ON FRI AND SAT AS
THE AREA WILL BE PLENTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE POSITIONED WEST OF THE AREA.