IF you live in the Northeast and want warm wx...

[wxguy25]

Well, I hope that we have some good storms this winter down here. Im waiting on *looks around to see if SF is peaking* "THE WEDGE". but seriously I hope that in about a month or so Im sitting here with Ice Storm Warnings about or Snow advisories or something .

Not sure if he is, but I can tell you this, NOBODY KNOWS CAD SITUATIONS LIKE SF! He is probably the best CAD forecaster on the board. First to see it, and usually the most accurate.

My biggest concern is a major DEC ice storm for the SRN Appalachians at some point during the month.

[yoda]

Well, I hope that we have some good storms this winter down here. Im waiting on *looks around to see if SF is peaking* "THE WEDGE". but seriously I hope that in about a month or so Im sitting here with Ice Storm Warnings about or Snow advisories or something .

Not sure if he is, but I can tell you this, NOBODY KNOWS CAD SITUATIONS LIKE SF! He is probably the best CAD forecaster on the board. First to see it, and usually the most accurate.

My biggest concern is a major DEC ice storm for the SRN Appalachians at some point during the month.

SF is the best CAD person on here. No doubt about it. Would this big ice event include snow east of the apps?

[wxguy25]

Well, I hope that we have some good storms this winter down here. Im waiting on *looks around to see if SF is peaking* "THE WEDGE". but seriously I hope that in about a month or so Im sitting here with Ice Storm Warnings about or Snow advisories or something .

Not sure if he is, but I can tell you this, NOBODY KNOWS CAD SITUATIONS LIKE SF! He is probably the best CAD forecaster on the board. First to see it, and usually the most accurate.

My biggest concern is a major DEC ice storm for the SRN Appalachians at some point during the month.

SF is the best CAD person on here. No doubt about it. Would this big ice event include snow east of the apps?

Impossible to say right now of course until it happens (assuming that it will), but the analog event that im looking at was a snow event mostly north of the PA/MD border and inland from the big cities.

[Brent]

BTW, KC...I anticipate 1-4 inches of snow in Atlanta this winter. temperatures 3+ Below normal.

[yoda]

Well, I hope that we have some good storms this winter down here. Im waiting on *looks around to see if SF is peaking* "THE WEDGE". but seriously I hope that in about a month or so Im sitting here with Ice Storm Warnings about or Snow advisories or something .

Not sure if he is, but I can tell you this, NOBODY KNOWS CAD SITUATIONS LIKE SF! He is probably the best CAD forecaster on the board. First to see it, and usually the most accurate.

My biggest concern is a major DEC ice storm for the SRN Appalachians at some point during the month.

SF is the best CAD person on here. No doubt about it. Would this big ice event include snow east of the apps?

Impossible to say right now of course until it happens (assuming that it will), but the analog event that im looking at was a snow event mostly north of the PA/MD border and inland from the big cities.

Which analog year are you looking at? If that is correct.. and I know its WAY out there... but that would mean rain in the Big Cities.. and leaves me open to believe that I95 is the R/S line.

[Wnghs2007]

BTW, KC...I anticipate 1-4 inches of snow in Atlanta this winter. temperatures 3+ Below normal.

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. Brent has arrived

[wxguy25]

BTW, KC...I anticipate 1-4 inches of snow in Atlanta this winter. temperatures 3+ Below normal.

Yep...The idea there is that a Supressed pattern may set up for a time in FEB.

Give me you location and ill figure out what your seasonal totals will be

[Brent]

BTW, KC...I anticipate 1-4 inches of snow in Atlanta this winter. temperatures 3+ Below normal.

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. Brent has arrived

Anytime the word snow and a city near me is mentioned I must chime in.

[wxguy25]

Which analog year are you looking at? If that is correct.. and I know its WAY out there... but that would mean rain in the Big Cities.. and leaves me open to believe that I95 is the R/S line.

Now yoda, would A football Coach discuss openly which plays he plans to run in the team's next game? I don't think so. Why? B/c the opposing team could use that against them. The same thing applies to long range forecasting and the use of analogs.

I believe the core of the above normal snow this winter will be located over interior portions of the northeast, but that doesn’t mean that the big cities are always going to be on the rn/sn line all the time.

In that particular event in that specific year, the I-95 cities started out as ice and changed over to rain. the snow fell inland across far NE PA, NW NJ and C NY into Interior New England but was mostly the result of dynamics rather than sufficient cold air being in place.

The SRN apps ICE event was a snowstorm from the big cities but nothing to really crow about.

[yoda]

Which analog year are you looking at? If that is correct.. and I know its WAY out there... but that would mean rain in the Big Cities.. and leaves me open to believe that I95 is the R/S line.

Now yoda, would A football Coach discuss openly which plays he plans to run in the team's next game? I don't think so. Why? B/c the opposing team could use that against them. The same thing applies to long range forecasting and the use of analogs.

I believe the core of the above normal snow this winter will be located over interior portions of the northeast, but that doesn’t mean that the big cities are always going to be on the rn/sn line all the time.

In that particular event in that specific year, the I-95 cities started out as ice and changed over to rain. the snow fell inland across far NE PA, NW NJ and C NY into Interior New England but was mostly the result of dynamics rather than sufficient cold air being in place.

The SRN apps ICE event was a snowstorm from the big cities but nothing to really crow about.

Ah ok thanks. I look forward to seeing your outlook in Nov.

[wxguy25]

Ah ok thanks. I look forward to seeing your outlook in Nov.

The winter outlook will be out as soon as I can get it online. if its tomorrow then it will be out tomorrow, if its next week, then its next week. There is no set date. it was intended to go out on OCT 18, and that deadline is long gone.

[yoda]

Ah ok thanks. I look forward to seeing your outlook in Nov.

The winter outlook will be out as soon as I can get it online. if its tomorrow then it will be out tomorrow, if its next week, then its next week. There is no set date. it was intended to go out on OCT 18, and that deadline is long gone.

Ok. Thanks for all the time you put into it.

[wxguy25]

Ah ok thanks. I look forward to seeing your outlook in Nov.

The winter outlook will be out as soon as I can get it online. if its tomorrow then it will be out tomorrow, if its next week, then its next week. There is no set date. it was intended to go out on OCT 18, and that deadline is long gone.

Ok. Thanks for all the time you put into it.

It didn't take alot of time--only about 4 days to complete. in total its about 21 pages long in MS word format.

[deguy50]

looking forward to your outlook

[wxguy25]

Thanks. It will be out soon.

BTW looks like the cool pool is shrinking and weakening in the GOA as the positive SSTA shift eastward. Check out the SSTA analysis from Environment Canada for today

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/sais ... _gl_sd.gif

It also looks like things are warming somewhat over the eastern Equatorial Pacific.

[Wnghs2007]

Thanks. It will be out soon.

BTW looks like the cool pool is shrinking and weakening in the GOA as the positive SSTA shift eastward. Check out the SSTA analysis from Environment Canada for today

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/sais ... _gl_sd.gif

It also looks like things are warming somewhat over the eastern Equatorial Pacific.

LOL. What will this mean in terms of the overal pattern of things?

[wxguy25]

LOL. What will this mean in terms of the overal pattern of things?

it means the current pattern w/ a trough in the west and ridge over the central and EUS in the means will reverse if that warm water gets into the Gulf Of Alaska. It signals the negative phase of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and the Onset of a mostly Positive PNA pattern.

[Stormsfury]

ECMWF has quite a potent s/w ... SFC low developing in South Dakota moving ENE ... potential SVR WX threat, with +SN on the back side of low ... another potent s/w into MT and into South Central Canada ... mighty cold air building in Northern Canada ... and pooling hardcore in Siberia ... seeping and creeping ever so slowly ...

[yoda]

ECMWF has quite a potent s/w ... SFC low developing in South Dakota moving ENE ... potential SVR WX threat, with +SN on the back side of low ... another potent s/w into MT and into South Central Canada ... mighty cold air building in Northern Canada ... and pooling hardcore in Siberia ... seeping and creeping ever so slowly ...

Agree. NE AFD's have picked up on this. It looks interesting... but I can't see the snow staying long.

[wxguy25]

Notice also on the 12z EC on D8-10 average the PV is pretty strong and back on our side of the pole.