Here we go again in southern California

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

Yup, I know. IF they could surface we could get something. Ill do my analysis here on this. We are in the Right section of the trough today. The main compact dynamics have passed us, and are to the east. They brought bow echos events here. Let me break it down. The Best chance for Tornadoes, and Supercells look the best between 11am, and 5pm in the LA Basin. Reason im seeing this is the vort lobe looks forecasted to move into the ventura area by 11am. As it moves through Los angeles, it will weaken a bit, but still enough to cause problems. The low level jet is at 25knts, so its OK. The jet stream forecasted to reach 110 mph possible over the LA Basin upon this. CAPES look like they will reach near 1000, or even higher. helicity levels look good enough for rotation as well. 500mb Temps will near 24C. With daytime heating, this will create steep lapse rates that will form these cells. the 500mb level will also have some strong winds coming into the storms. This will aid in the severe potential somewhat. CINH levels look normal, so a cap could be in place, but it will bust nearing 12pm PDT, so after could see something. m expecting them to weaken in severe intensity after 5pm as lapse rates go down, the vort values go down to a marginal value, and the dynamics move off to the east. This is what im expecting in the LA Basin Today.

Tornado Chaser

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

Air is getting unstable over the waters off Southern California, and this area may reach ther LA Basin shortly today. Already seeing Hail in this cell as indicated by moderate VIL levels. heres a radar capture!

[aveosmth]

It looks like this impulse is going to hit LA County right at the peak time of instability....do you think that the threat will be isolated to certain areas of LA county or is it something that most everyone will be effected by....also, hailstones seem to be the biggest threat right now....do you think that damaging hail will be a possibility....thanks in advance for all your work, youve helped a lot of people.

Aveo

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

National Weather Service says Surface Based Instability has decreased in the models, however, i am not beliveing that one bit. The models are computer yes. Weather is complicated, like fluid. It goes everywhere anytime. Currently right now, there is -4 LI's off the LA county coast. Also some 500 cape, the models are not seeing. Lapse rates already are at 7.0 there. I believe that during the day, daytime heating will cause the LI Levels to skyrocket, to maybe even over -7 to -8, with capes over 1000. Lapse rates nearing 8.5 This should be enough to cause thunderstorms to form. The 500mb level temps are already at -22c over this area. The latest radar shows echos are moving to the North in LA County. This really means one thing. They were stationary for 2 hrs this morning. now they are speeding up to the north. This means the Low Level winds at 950mb are moving ashore, that possibly the models couldnt not see. This is a small scale wind area. This will stick around and get a bit stronger as the day wears on. When the area of convection it sthe area, it should sprak off numerous thunderstorms, even possibly severe hail, hail over 3/4 inch diamter, which is very rare, and very dangerous for this area. This should not be confined to LA county as Low Level Jet winds looks like it is spreading over the entire SW Califonria area. Isolated weak tornadoes look more possible now. If I didnt see the radar image with the echos racing from the south, I wouldnt warrent this chance. But it is, so I will see to it, Tornado threat should be there, but marginal of course. That is basically my analysis. Everything comes together this early afternoon into this late afternoon. Should be interesting I will update latest LI, CAPE, etc on this, and analysis

Tornado Chaser

[aveosmth]

I'm in Santa Monica right now and there are very ominous clouds to our north & west right now over the Santa Monica mountains....there is already good lift associated w/these clouds, however, there may be too much cloud cover right now...the reason I say that is because the clouds may inhibit diurnal heating which will destablize the atmosphere further....we will see.

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

Just as I predicted lapse rates are spreading over LA County of 7.0, and will only steepen as the day goes on. MUCAPE jumped over the 250 mark SPC had, and is nearing 1000 near the Coast, so the threat of Supercells is in for sure. CAPE levels aer spreading as well. LI levels are at -5 off the coast with -1 and -2 already inland.

[aveosmth]

There is an impulse strenghtening off the coast....I'm watching this one real close because its headed right for us...the last hazardous weather outlook said that nickel sized hail could be possible w/this storm....that would be insane!!! Looks like cells are popping up in Orange County as well...right near El Toro AFB....

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

I see that to, expect it to get stronger as it gets near the coast. Take a look at this. This look familiar? nearly stationary over Watts and compton? yup last year november 12, 2003 giant hail storm area. Expect move of these as the day wears on. wow, its hot here already! btw, heres the image. you are in the magenta circle.

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

15 minutes ago this cell near malibu produced what is known as the classic eagle shape for a supercell! Look at the radar image i captured below. The Radar is really lighting up now, as the dynamics move in. Alot of action is going to happen.

[tronbunny]

I was just talking to my co-workers at my home office in Burbank.
They have water damage in the office! the roof and coming in near a window.
Sounds like our hurricane damage.
Worse yet, no one out there knows how to drive in rain.

[aveosmth]

I can tell you about that Malibu Cell....it looks absolutely awesome from here!!! Its been awhile since I've seen a cell like that!! Do you think it will continue to intensify??

Last year's storm was a once in 100yr event..I work in Santa Monica & live in the South Bay, so after work, I headed home & couldn't believe my eyes....it was absolutely amazing...I didnt catch the worst of it, but it was very intense....so if this is shaping up like that, I hope the NWS puts out warnings ASAP!!!

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

to the NWS, they care about their jobs and reputations it seems. If I were them, Id be putting out warnings for these dangerous storms. I think it could intensify, the malibu storm I mean. Also a shift to the east in your area looks likely soon from that storm, so watch out, and have fun with it! It will only get worse as the day wears on! its only 1pm, lol not even height of the storm cell developements.

[aveosmth]

AT 1227 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS SHOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED FROM SANTA BARBARA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA. INDIVIDUAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVNING NORTHEAST AND ONSHORE AT 10
KT.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT WATERSPOUTS...WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KT...BRIEFLY
INCREASED SEAS...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BOATERS
SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR UNITED
STATES COAST GUARD. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN OXNARD

Tornado Chaser, youre right on it.....this will be the first, & certainly not the last warning of the day.

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

Latest LIs and Cape have dropped across the basin due to cloud cover shield. The atmosphere is not destabilizing fast enough for super huge severe developments that this system could have. Im noticing an area of clearing coming ashore. If this area comes sashore as a clear sector during peak heat of the afternoon, it could very well be enough for the servere supercell potential in the pink shaded area I marked in this satellite photo. Its followed by what looks like a strong thunderstorm.

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

Aveo, I am not certain, but from the latest radar images, it looks like some strong winds will accompany the cell that you will be getting shortly. it looks like a small bow echo effect. all levels show the sign, but very small. the Thunderstorm SW of Catalina island is also rotating at 3km it looks like.

[aveosmth]

Winds have definitely picked up in the last half-hour or so....we had a clear pocket over us for approx an hour(11-12) and I think that aided the Malibu cell....I just looked outside and it is absolutely pitch black to the west & north....I think we will still see some severe outbreaks across socal this afternoon.

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

Just had a Tornado Vortex Signature South of me. 144k/s shear! from 600 feet to 6000. rotation was pretty amazing for a second.

[aveosmth]

We just had the first bolt of lightning & accompying thunder a minute ago....winds are getting very high and the rain is starting to falll....yeah, its getting pretty hectic.

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

looks like dynamics are starting to weaken. If the cloud shield held off till now, we would have had severe hail, and possible alot of tornadoe touchdowns. But it didnt/. In the LA Basin, it looks like its over for now, and the action moves on to Orange County, and Riverside County, where I am. This area of convection is still going, as it slams into Orange County. Hoping this would trigger something near me. I want to note I did report a possible tornado north of my house to the NWS today. This tornado looking thing couldnt have been anything else. It rotated very fast, the base of the cloud rotated with it very fast, as it went northeast. It was some 5 miles north of me, awesome structure in the base, and anvil, which had low topped supercell characteristics. Picturesd below is a zoom in on the supercell that was north of me. It was pretty big, and nice lookingl like I said. Taken the time of the Tornado Sighting. The white arrow is the Low Level Inflow.

[riverratmike]

well so far here in LHC, AZ I recorded 0.83 inches of rain in a 24hr period. Not as much as last weeks storm