Severe Weather Potential Friday the 13th and MLK Day?

[mike815]

yup very active night even more tomorrow

[Brent]

Derecho mentioned...



...TN VALLEY/SOUTH...
STRONGLY FORCED PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE HAS EVOLVED AS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS REGIONS AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY
EAST ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN
INTENSE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...AND
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS SPREADING EAST INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE...SEVERE WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST
ACROSS TN/AL/GA...AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE... THROUGH AFTERNOON.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED RETURN FLOW/MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF
THE SQUALL LINE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED INSTABILITY. DESPITE LOW
CAPE...STRONGLY FORCED SLAB ASCENT WITHIN MOIST ADIABATIC
ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE LINE SHOULD SUPPORT LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL
MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE LAYER /MAUL/. CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
WITHIN THIS LAYER WILL LEAD TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REACHING THE
SURFACE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED DERECHO PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN
THE LINE...OR ANY CELLULAR CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
LINE...WILL BE LOCATIONS FAVORED FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION
AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH WRN SC BY EVENING AND MAY BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER
SLIGHT DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WITH EWD EXTENT.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN
RAPID EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LINE AND STRONG FORCING.
THUS...DAMAGING WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
LATE EVENING.

[Brent]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1219 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006

...THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUES TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY. THE TIME OF
GREATEST THREAT IS BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM. WHILE ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL HAVE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...THERE IS AN ENHANCED
RISK ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT IS
FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
OVER THE ARKLATEX. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH WEST ALABAMA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS
CONDITIONS WARM UP FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY INTENSIFY AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED. SOME MAY
GROW STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY ALSO BEGIN TO ROTATE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES.

THE EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE CAN WARM AND MOISTEN UP EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE
THE STORMS ARRIVE. IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND IF HUMIDITIES ARE ABLE TO INCREASE...THEN THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL INCREASE. IF OVERCAST CONDITIONS KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 50S...THEN THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE
LESS.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND USHERS IN MORE STABLE AIR.

EVERYONE ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WHEN MAKING THEIR PLANS FOR FRIDAY. REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY PLANS WITH FAMILY MEMBERS AND COLLEAGUES...AND KNOW WHAT TO
DO IN THE EVENT THAT WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

[Tyler]

Brent,

Looks like you are in for a rough time! Stay safe!

[WaitingForSiren]

Doesnt look like things are going so well right now, the squall line is rather choppy and doesnt have a "serial derecho" look to it at all. If it can organize later on then maybe SPC is right, but my hunch is that SPC will cancel the moderate risk.

[mike815]

it will get nasty later on today i think it will become better orginized last night was really bad lots of hail

[mike815]

The tornado threat is now increaseing!!!

[Skywatch_NC]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
530 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-141030-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
530 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP RAPIDLY EAST...REACHING THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THIS FRONT...AFFECTING CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TRIAD AND AREAS SOUTH...
INCLUDING LEXINGTON...ALBEMARLE AND WADESBORO...AROUND SUNSET. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...AROUND 10 PM.

[mike815]

interesting day here as well
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS A
STRONG WINTER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DOWNBURST
WINDS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL BE LOW BUT NOT ZERO.

[WaitingForSiren]

SPC has already backed off on the coverage of the MDT risk.

[mike815]

yes they have but the tornado threat is currently incresing and a pretty good squall line is going. still going to be interesting.

[WaitingForSiren]

I dunno, looks like a bust is going down to me. Total bust.

Theres still hope for next Monday, but the trend is for a weaker storm system and further north, so that might very well be a bust as well.

[mike815]

TORNADO WARN. NEW ORLEANS AREA!

[mike815]

this is not a bust at all the squall line is getting stronger and is really digging down now looks very strong to me

[wxmann_91]

I dunno, looks like a bust is going down to me. Total bust.

Theres still hope for next Monday, but the trend is for a weaker storm system and further north, so that might very well be a bust as well.

Yeah, I concur with both. Unlike last time, it will be the moisture problem that leads to today's bust. And interestingly, today's bust might lead to a bust on Monday, since the strong cold front will likely scour out much of the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for minimal return flow ahead of the next system.

[WaitingForSiren]

Yeah a tornado warning is out, but there have been no severe reports so far today, and judging by the history of this thing it may evry well remain that way. My bet is SPC downgrades to Slight in the next outlook. Only hope looks like across georgia later this afternoon when the squall line MIGHT intensify, but that isn't a sure thing.

[WaitingForSiren]

Yep, wxmann seems to be on the same page as me.

[mike815]

bust ok maybe i dont know what a bust to you is but it will become more active last night was very active with hail reports and such. the squall line is quite healthy and there are tornado warn. in effect right now no its not an outbreak but still. mon will be crap though i agree about that

[wxmann_91]

bust ok maybe i dont know what a bust to you is but it will become more active last night was very active with hail reports and such. the squall line is quite healthy and there are tornado warn. in effect right now no its not an outbreak but still. mon will be crap though i agree about that

Just checked and skies are clearing to the east of the main line. If this trend continues and the line slows down a bit, then we could see the line reintensify a bit. Though I do agree that SPC will likely downgrade this, probably at the 20Z outlook.

[mike815]

im excited my area may be under a watch later today!

10:26 discussion from MELB
FORWARD PROGRESSION OF SQUALL LINE UPSTREAM ARGUES FOR A GOOD CHANCE
OF A CONVECTIVE WATCH BECOMING NECESSARY OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA
BY THIS EVENING. PERSONS SHOULD MONITOR CHANGING CONDITIONS CLOSELY
AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SQUALL LINE SPREADING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION WILL HIGHLIGHT WEEKEND HAZARDS INCLUDING WIND
CHILL...FREEZE WATCH AND POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY ON SATURDAY