Severe weather threat 5-9-06

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

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6SpeedTA95
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#41 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Tue May 09, 2006 9:14 pm

I think its probably worth the $$$ for AE.
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#42 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue May 09, 2006 9:18 pm

How much is AE?
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#43 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue May 09, 2006 9:21 pm

This is so turning into November 15, 2005 all over again...it seems everything is the same...
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#44 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Tue May 09, 2006 9:24 pm

AE is 250 bucks, if you have the regular Level2 then its 170.
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#45 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue May 09, 2006 9:25 pm

OK thanks, I just noticed it after getting a link elsewhere. My system cannot sustain it anyway and I am in no hurry to buy a new computer (likely won't for at least another 18-24 months).

Anyway, what are the chances of this sustaining itself overnight? That could be critical as it could set up tomorrow...
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#46 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue May 09, 2006 9:28 pm

Storm count so far:

2 tornadoes reported - 36 severe wind reports (0 hurricane force) - 82 large hail reports (8 very large) - 120 total

Seems like the high-end Slight Risk verified and the Moderate Risk was overdone as it is widespread in nature.
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#47 Postby Gorky » Tue May 09, 2006 9:38 pm

Err.. tonight isn't nearly finished... I'm not sure how you can start arguing over whether the spc was right reupgrading to a moderate risk yet.
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#48 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Tue May 09, 2006 9:44 pm

Gorky wrote:Err.. tonight isn't nearly finished... I'm not sure how you can start arguing over whether the spc was right reupgrading to a moderate risk yet.


I doubt we're gonna have a significant tornadic threat into the evening. The next wave is shaping up to be an MCS event. An isolated tornado is definately possible but I think the majority of the justification for an MDT could come by way of hail/wind as the MCS moves through into the early morning hours. Cape values are decent for this time of night and LI's are still impressive.
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#49 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue May 09, 2006 9:50 pm

Does overnight activity have an impact at all on what happens tomorrow?
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#50 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Tue May 09, 2006 9:51 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Does overnight activity have an impact at all on what happens tomorrow?


Absolutely, I briefly mentioned it in your thread earlier. If things hold together all night like they did last night it can have a mixing affect on the atmosphere. It basically decreases the instability and decreases the significant threats of severe weather tomorrow. Odds of it holding together seem rather small though. Also an MCS can create various outflow boundaries that can fire up storms. The storms in OK earlier this evening fired along remaining boundaries from the storms this morning.
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#51 Postby SamSagnella » Tue May 09, 2006 10:02 pm

Tornado moved through Childress (pop. 6500) about half an hour ago with another report of a tornado (maybe the same one, although the storm appeared to cycle between the two towns) moving into Kirkland (pop. unk) 15 minutes ago. No word on damage yet.

Image
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#52 Postby SamSagnella » Tue May 09, 2006 10:22 pm

Oh crap -- Reports are coming in now that this tornado has significantly damaged the city of Childress. Looking for more info...

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLUB/0605100301.nwus54.html
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#53 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue May 09, 2006 10:25 pm

WOW! An isolated bad tornado!
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#54 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue May 09, 2006 10:36 pm

there is also a tornado currently reported on the ground well north of Dallas. The storm has a nice hook too.
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#55 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue May 09, 2006 10:37 pm

The Hardeman County tornado has a spectacular hook...73 knots of shear too
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#56 Postby SamSagnella » Tue May 09, 2006 10:39 pm

Tornado on the ground with the Collin County TX storm as of 1029CT; power flashes just north of Anna. SVS says it's heading toward Westminster.

Image

EDIT: latest update indicates a spotter-indicated large tornado on the ground in association with this cell.
Last edited by SamSagnella on Tue May 09, 2006 10:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#57 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue May 09, 2006 10:41 pm

The Collin County tornado got impressive fast! Hard to see too with the radar beam clutter within 10-20 miles of the radar dish...

Chillicothe tornado has 80 knots of shear now...
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#58 Postby Bunkertor » Tue May 09, 2006 10:50 pm

Where do you get all these informations from ?
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#59 Postby SamSagnella » Tue May 09, 2006 10:53 pm

http://kamala.cod.edu/svr
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#60 Postby Bunkertor » Tue May 09, 2006 10:57 pm

OK, but how can you know how strong tornadic developments are ?
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