Severe Weather possible May 10 - MDT risk issued

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the NWS in Houston (part of the discussion):

FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM CROCKETT TO BRENHAM MOVING SOUTH AT
AROUND 25 MPH. APPEARS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ASSISTING
THE CAP ERODE AND BROKEN LINE OF PRECIP IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. EXPECT IT TO FILL IN AND FURTHER INTENSIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST. ATMOS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS POTENTIALLY
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES >5000 AND LI`S -7 TO -11. SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE LINE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT. ASSUMING CURRENT MOVEMENT HOLDS...ANTICIPATE THE
LINE TO BE FROM ROUGHLY MOSS HILL TO DOWNTOWN HOUSTON TO EL CAMPO
AROUND 430PM AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPS POST FROPA TONIGHT.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just can´t follow.

On that map, there is nothing unusual visible: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/sat_tab.php

What area are you talking about ?

What are capes ?

Regards

Eike

here is a sight if you want to look at Houston radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

[Bunkertor]

Huu

I just can´t follow.

On that map, there is nothing unusual visible: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/sat_tab.php

What area are you talking about ?

What are capes ?

Regards

Eike

here is a sight if you want to look at Houston radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

[Extremeweatherguy]

Huu

I just can´t follow.

On that map, there is nothing unusual visible: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/sat_tab.php

What area are you talking about ?

What are capes ?

Regards

Eike

here is a sight if you want to look at Houston radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

That is a link to the radar out of Houston, Texas. It will show you what storms are developing in SE Texas right now.

[Bunkertor]

I just watched - that line is really impressive.

Thanks - i follow developments.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like the cold front itself will be a squall line. The tornadoes will be ahead of it.

[6SpeedTA95]

Cape is a measure of energy in the air. It's the amount of potential energy between the ground and the level of free convection. The more potential energy the more potential there is for severe weather...I hope I said that right.

[Extremeweatherguy]

well severe weather has broken out in many places (ESPECIALLY down toward Victoria)...but it looks like N. Houston may be spared this time. I will continue watching though.

[6SpeedTA95]

Official CAPE Def from NOAA:
Surface-Based CAPE/CIN (J/kg)

SBCAPE (Surface-Based Convective Available Potential Energy) is a measure of instability in the troposphere. This value represents the total amount of potential energy available to a parcel of air originating at the surface and being lifted to its level of free convection (LFC). No parcel entrainment is considered. The CAPE calculation uses virtual temperatures, but the CIN value does not. SPC forecasters have noted that non-virtual CIN calculations tend to define areas of weak cap more accurately than if the virtual temperature was considered.

[6SpeedTA95]

Some of the storms in MS look decent on radar, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a couple warnings.

[6SpeedTA95]

Warnings already out on those nevermind.

[Bunkertor]

Official CAPE Def from NOAA:
Surface-Based CAPE/CIN (J/kg)

SBCAPE (Surface-Based Convective Available Potential Energy) is a measure of instability in the troposphere. This value represents the total amount of potential energy available to a parcel of air originating at the surface and being lifted to its level of free convection (LFC). No parcel entrainment is considered. The CAPE calculation uses virtual temperatures, but the CIN value does not. SPC forecasters have noted that non-virtual CIN calculations tend to define areas of weak cap more accurately than if the virtual temperature was considered.

So this is a help tool for prediction. 1 kJ/kg = 1 kW, this Unit is used - i did that at the Uni, in calculating gas turbines and stuff.

[6SpeedTA95]

Yeah, its the amount of "potential" energy available.

[Bunkertor]

Yeah, its the amount of "potential" energy available.

Normal rates for air are something with around 3500, isn´t it ? It´s some years ago with me.

[Bunkertor]

Just in

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SAN AUGUSTINE COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

[SamSagnella]

wow:

AT 415 PM...ANGELINA COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED THREE TORNADOES OVER LAKE LIVINGSTON. IN ADDITION...GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN POLK COUNTY AT THE INTERSECTION OF FM 2457 AND HIGHWAY 190 ABOUT 4 MILES WEST OF LIVINGSTON.

[Bunkertor]

wow:

AT 415 PM...ANGELINA COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED THREE TORNADOES OVER LAKE LIVINGSTON. IN ADDITION...GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN POLK COUNTY AT THE INTERSECTION OF FM 2457 AND HIGHWAY 190 ABOUT 4 MILES WEST OF LIVINGSTON.

Is live coverage available ?

[6SpeedTA95]

Yeah, its the amount of "potential" energy available.

Normal rates for air are something with around 3500, isn´t it ? It´s some years ago with me.

No, 3500 is considered VERY unstable.

[6SpeedTA95]

Shernados!!!!!!!!!!!

I wonder how accurate that will turn out to be.

I wonder if NO is gonna get socked hard tonight, just a major rain event would be bad for them.

[BayouVenteux]

I wonder if NO is gonna get socked hard tonight, just a major rain event would be bad for them.

I assume "NO" means New Orleans and not NOrman?

Still appears to be a healthy cap over the area right now...there's currently barely a cloud in the sky. The Lake Charles NWS office reported that the cap was beginning to erode to the west in their afternoon soundings, but whether this part of the state sees any severe wx remains to be seen.