Wet Times Ahead In SE Texas.Good Discussion

Extremeweatherguy · #41 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 5:27 pm

the weird thing is that by looking at the radar right now and looking outside it doesn't look very ominous at all. It is amazing to think such bad flooding could occur tomorrow.

Extremeweatherguy · #42 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 5:34 pm

Houston Chan. 11 and 13 are REALLY underplaying this event. Most are just saying 3-5" west of I-45 and 1-3" east of I-45. Neither channel has mentioned the possibility of amounts over 10". Hopefully they will do so in their "main" forecast or else many may be caught off guard tomorrow.

#43 Postby **Houstonia** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 5:40 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:the weird thing is that by looking at the radar right now and looking outside it doesn't look very ominous at all. It is amazing to think such bad flooding could occur tomorrow.

That's what my mother said after looking at the radar. She thinks it's going to dissapate.

But we've all been through this before - the set-up is there - everything is in place. We just have to sit and see what exactly happens!

#44 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 7:07 pm

This is about the same set up as 2 weeks ago when we had the 10-15" in spots. Moisture this deep, it will happen. We'll see where it forms Monday morning.

Yankeegirl · #45 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 8:42 pm

SO this is going to be like last time when the rain mostly fell after mindnight? I can understand how people who dont know weather would question all the flooding thats supposed to happen tomorrow...

TexasSam · #46 Postby **TexasSam** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 8:42 pm

I was just outside, light rain out of a mostly clear sky. Very strange, had some HIGH clouds from a dark cloud to our SE, but nothing directly overhead. Then again as humid, and totaly still as it is here just now, I guess the rain could be from way HIGH up? The base radar shows nothing over Baytown, but the composit does... :roll:

#47 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 9:39 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:SO this is going to be like last time when the rain mostly fell after mindnight? I can understand how people who dont know weather would question all the flooding thats supposed to happen tomorrow...

That is what the mets are saying. I know there is basically little if anything on radar right now, but I've seen it like this before and awakened to flooding rains hours later. Too many indicators are pointing to this happening. I pray they are wrong and that all the mets in this area have a huge bust of the current forecast!!!

southerngale · #48 Postby **southerngale** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 9:41 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
Yankeegirl wrote:SO this is going to be like last time when the rain mostly fell after mindnight? I can understand how people who dont know weather would question all the flooding thats supposed to happen tomorrow...

That is what the mets are saying. I know there is basically little if anything on radar right now, but I've seen it like this before and awakened to flooding rains hours later. Too many indicators are pointing to this happening. I pray they are wrong and that all the mets in this area have a huge bust of the current forecast!!!

I think I'm gonna go with that. 4th of July BBQ back on! 8-)

Extremeweatherguy · #49 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 9:42 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
927 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES...

.DISCUSSION...AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TWO INCHES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TX AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST LA COAST. WITH THE 500MB LOW ACROSS WEST
TX AND A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TX COAST...BELIEVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT LIKELY TO
UNFOLD LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LATEST NAM MODEL RUN PROGS
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND SPREADING NORTHWARD MON MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTING NORTHWARD TONIGHT...BELIEVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEREFORE...FLOOD
WATCH TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF
RAINFALL LIKELY TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF FIVE TO TEN INCHES
POSSIBLE WHERE VERY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
DEVELOP. WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO MENTION PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
ALSO...WILL REMOVE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND ADJUST
POPS SLIGHTLY LOWER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL WORD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. 32

#50 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 9:43 pm

southerngale wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:
Yankeegirl wrote:SO this is going to be like last time when the rain mostly fell after mindnight? I can understand how people who dont know weather would question all the flooding thats supposed to happen tomorrow...

That is what the mets are saying. I know there is basically little if anything on radar right now, but I've seen it like this before and awakened to flooding rains hours later. Too many indicators are pointing to this happening. I pray they are wrong and that all the mets in this area have a huge bust of the current forecast!!!

I think I'm gonna go with that. 4th of July BBQ back on!

I've got some filets left over from Father's day I am hoping to cook as well as some chicken too. Gotta be optimistic!!

Johnny · #51 Postby **Johnny** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 9:43 pm

I want to see a pic of your jacked up golf cart!

I would if I knew how to post pictures on here? Is there a way to post pictures directly from my hard drive?

CajunMama · #52 Postby **CajunMama** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 9:53 pm

Johnny wrote:
I want to see a pic of your jacked up golf cart!

I would if I knew how to post pictures on here? Is there a way to post pictures directly from my hard drive?

You must upload your pics to a place like imageshack.com or webshots.com

Extremeweatherguy · #53 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Jul 02, 2006 11:45 pm

10:30pm HWO for Houston:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-032100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON

VERY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE STREAMING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEGIN MOVING
INLAND LATE TONIGHT TOWARD MORNING. THE THREAT OF FLOODING RAINFALL
WILL BE INCREASING NEAR THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. SEE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

EXTREMELY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN LONGER.

FOR MONDAY: MOISTURE VALUES WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER AND
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. VALUES OF THESE MAGNITUDES ARE KNOWN TO
PRODUCE TORRENTIAL 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. ANY SLOW
MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT CAN CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR IN LOW LYING AND URBANIZED
AREAS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERNS HAVE BROUGHT LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES. IT APPEARS THAT AREAS SOUTH AND WEST WILL
SEE THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN ON MONDAY...BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. AGAIN...SEE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

MOISTURE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

#54 Postby **Houstonia** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 12:23 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:10:30pm HWO for Houston:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

T

I keep seeing all the warnings - but it's hard to believe anything is going to happen seeing as how there is NOTHING on the radar.

Extremeweatherguy · #55 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 12:26 am

Houstonia wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:10:30pm HWO for Houston:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

T

I keep seeing all the warnings - but it's hard to believe anything is going to happen seeing as how there is NOTHING on the radar.

I agree; it is hard to believe. However, I am now starting to notice a few isolated coastal cells popping up which could be the start of a WET morning.

#56 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 1:03 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Houstonia wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:10:30pm HWO for Houston:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

T

I keep seeing all the warnings - but it's hard to believe anything is going to happen seeing as how there is NOTHING on the radar.
I agree; it is hard to believe. However, I am now starting to notice a few isolated coastal cells popping up which could be the start of a WET morning.

Going to be an active week. Upper Low west of the SE TX area stays around all week. Flooding is likely in some areas this week.

southerngale · #57 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 3:26 am

The radar cleared up in the evening hours last night, but it's lighting up again. I'm getting a pretty heavy thunderstorm at the moment.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
254 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2006

...HEAVY RAIN EVENT EXPECTED TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...
CAN NOT STRESS ENOUGH HOW DANGEROUS TODAY LOOKS WITH REGARD TO
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. PW`S ARE PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2.41 AND 2.66 INCHES. HAVE NEVER SEEN THESE
VALUES SO HIGH! BOTH MODELS SHOW SURFACE COVERGENCE AS SURFACE
STREAMLINES MERGE ALONG THE COAST. AT 250 MB...CENTRAL AND SE
TEXAS LIE IN A RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A DEPARTING JET AND UPPER LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN DIVERGENT AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS. 850 MB DEW POINTS ARE BETWEEN 14 AND
16C AND THE SOUNDINGS AT LCH/CRP ARE SATURATED. THERE IS A GLIMMER
OF GOOD NEWS...STORM MOTION HAS BEEN AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT STORM MOTION OF 5 KNOTS. MAYBE THE STORMS
WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE FLOOD THREAT. WINDS OFFSHORE
HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING...CREATING GREATER INFLOW AND AND
ENHANCING CONVECTION WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE. 88-D IS LIGHTING OFF
THIS MORNING AND A FETCH OF MOISTURE STRETCHES SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE. THE EAST SIDE OF OF THIS MOISTURE FETCH HAS NOT MOVED
AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO HOUSTON AND POINTS NORTH.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TUESDAY. PW`S DROP ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 2.3
INCHES AND STORM MOTION DECREASES. ANOTHER VERY WET DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION WITH MORE FLOODING LIKELY. IN ALL
HONESTY...THIS WEEK LOOKS LIKE A MESS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN EVERY DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS TO OUR
WEST AND PW`S REMAIN AOA 2.3 INCHES. PW`S ACTUALLY HAVE A
SECONDAY PEAK OF 2.55 INCHES ON FRIDAY.

WILL UPDATE THE FFA AND HWO BY 5 AM. THE FFA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FFA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS LONGER. AT THIS TIME...
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL EXCEED 2 TO 3 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY
AND AS PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT FORECASTER MENTIONED...SOME LOCALIZED 10
INCH TOTALS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 74 87 75 89 / 100 60 80 50 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 85 76 87 76 88 / 100 60 80 50 70
GALVESTON (GLS) 86 80 88 81 87 / 100 60 80 50 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...
BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN
JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND
WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Extremeweatherguy · #58 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 8:21 am

rain has started on radar, but is not filling into the Houston area yet.

KatDaddy · #59 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 8:33 am

Looks like Houston may be spared at this point. Has Joe B given any updates?

Extremeweatherguy · #60 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 03, 2006 8:51 am

KatDaddy wrote:Looks like Houston may be spared at this point. Has Joe B given any updates?

this morning he said to expect some rain totals over 10" with this system. He also said that those totals may once again be close to Houston.

Wet Times Ahead In SE Texas.Good Discussion

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