-Springfield, MO Tornado Outbreak, Miss Valley/G'Lakes

[HarlequinBoy]

Something to watch, especially for January.

[Ed Mahmoud]

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CST SAT JAN 05 2008

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE
MID MS VALLEY...

...NERN TX/ERN OK/SERN KS/NRN LA/AR/SRN MO/SRN IL...
05/00Z NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE E/NEWD
PROGRESSION OF A DYNAMIC AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO
TRACK FROM THE SWRN STATES TO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN MOVE NEWD INTO THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS BY 12Z TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SRN PLAINS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH
THE LOW DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NE TOWARD IL MONDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND EWD
MOVEMENT OF ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY...MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE RETURN /UNDERWAY DURING DAY 1
AND 2/ WILL CONTINUE AND SUPPORT FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.
ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE MODEST...THE MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000
J/KG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX TO 500 J/KG
NEWD INTO SRN MO/SRN IL.

AT 12Z MONDAY...TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER NRN MO INTO IL WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. MODELS SUGGEST CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX INTO MO SHOULD WEAKEN INHIBITION FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD
ACROSS THIS REGION...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WITH
INCREASING DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS EARLY ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SERN KS/MUCH OF ERN OK AND THEN SWD INTO NERN TX MONDAY
EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH/
SURFACE LOW SPREADS NEWD. A FURTHER INCREASE IN LLJ FROM THE
ARKLATEX TO IL WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS. A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS IS EXPECTED FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
PERIOD.

..PETERS.. 01/05/2008

Looks like the followed the 0Z WRF fairly closely.



Looking at the 12Z WRF, still looks like the best combination of instability and shear will be Northeast Texas, North Louisiana and Arkansas



But a 1000 J/Kg, and 25 knots deep layer shear might produce a healthy t-storm around HOU, but I'm not sure if that is enough shear for severe storms.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Severe wx looks mostly to be between Southern Missouri and Northern Louisiana Monday, per 18Z WRF

Monday late evening


Early Tuesday morning


Tuesday morning
Narrow line of probably non severe storms into Texas with front, best shear and isntability getting further separated further East


Maybe severe storms later Tuesday Southern Missisippi and Alabama




0Z WRF now dribbling out...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, the "Holy Tornado Outbreak, Batman" title turns out to be more bark than bite.


But still a decent shot at severe weather in Eastern Ok, NE Texas, North Louisiana and a good part of AR.

0Z WRF




Later, Tuesday morning, WRF shows showers/storms developing right on the front down into SE Texas, but isolated severe, at best, looking at the WRF.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Texas isn't even in the SWODY2 outlook. Arkansas and Missouri look to be the center of this.


Not surprised based on model trend.

relevant snips...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST SAT JAN 05 2008

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SWD INTO
THE ARKLATEX...

...

...MID MS VALLEY SWD INTO THE ARKLATEX...

06/00Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS OVER THE TX COAST INTO LOWER MS VALLEY
INDICATE THAT A MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWEST MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 9-11 G PER
KG/ HAS ALREADY BECOME ESTABLISHED ONSHORE. PERSISTENT...SLY/SWLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF THIS AIR MASS
NWD THROUGH THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE
50S MONDAY INTO PARTS OF IL/IND AND LOWER 60S AS FAR N AS THE MO
BOOTHEEL. THE STEEPEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN LARGELY
DISPLACED TO THE N/NW OF THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WITH AIR MASS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF LESS
THAN 1000 J/KG.

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING OR DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE DAY INVOF RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF
IL/SERN WI INTO LOWER MI AS WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE ALONG
AND N OF BOUNDARY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE
MARGINAL AND NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

POTENTIALLY MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU SWD
INTO THE ARKLATEX AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING...MIDLEVEL JET STREAK BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD WRN EDGE OF
PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE TO THE E OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE OR
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN PORTIONS
OF SLIGHT RISK AREA /I.E. CNTRL MO INTO W-CNTRL IL/ MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WITH LARGE HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. FARTHER S FROM SRN MO INTO THE
ARKLATEX...STORMS SHOULD BE SURFACE-BASED WITHIN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. THIS SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT EWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER AS STORMS GROW
UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MULTIPLE LINES.

..MEAD.. 01/06/2008

[Ed Mahmoud]

I lied, Texas North and East of about GGG are in the slight risk area...

[RL3AO]

15% hail/15% wind

[Ed Mahmoud]

I am picking Springfield, MO as my tornado pick city, during the evening hours today

[Ed Mahmoud]

I am picking Springfield, MO as my tornado pick city, during the evening hours today

OK, I was about 500 miles off from a week ago, but I wouldn't rule out an upgrade to moderate, for Southern MO and Northern Arkansas.


WRF trickling out now, we shall see...

[CrazyC83]

First watch of 2008 issued.

[CrazyC83]

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
PARTS OF MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 900
PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
JOPLIN MISSOURI TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF QUINCY ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE
ACROSS WATCH AREA AHEAD OF STRONG WRN U.S. TROUGH. VERY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AS LEAD JET MAX MOVES ACROSS AREA FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE
REMAINING CINH...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.


...HALES


SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
PARTS OF MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 900
PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
JOPLIN MISSOURI TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF QUINCY ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE
ACROSS WATCH AREA AHEAD OF STRONG WRN U.S. TROUGH. VERY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AS LEAD JET MAX MOVES ACROSS AREA FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE
REMAINING CINH...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.


...HALES


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 071948
WOU1

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

TORNADO WATCH 1 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ILC001-009-013-017-057-061-067-109-125-129-137-149-169-171-
080300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0001.080107T1955Z-080108T0300Z/

IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS BROWN CALHOUN
CASS FULTON GREENE
HANCOCK MASON MCDONOUGH
MENARD MORGAN PIKE
SCHUYLER SCOTT


KSC001-011-021-037-099-107-125-133-080300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0001.080107T1955Z-080108T0300Z/

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN BOURBON CHEROKEE
CRAWFORD LABETTE LINN
MONTGOMERY NEOSHO


MOC001-007-011-013-015-019-027-029-033-037-039-041-045-051-053-
057-059-073-077-083-085-089-097-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-
121-125-127-131-135-137-139-141-151-159-163-167-169-173-175-185-
195-197-199-205-217-219-225-080300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0001.080107T1955Z-080108T0300Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR AUDRAIN BARTON
BATES BENTON BOONE
CALLAWAY CAMDEN CARROLL
CASS CEDAR CHARITON
CLARK COLE COOPER
DADE DALLAS GASCONADE
GREENE HENRY HICKORY
HOWARD JASPER JOHNSON
KNOX LACLEDE LAFAYETTE
LAWRENCE LEWIS LINCOLN
LINN MACON MARIES
MARION MILLER MONITEAU
MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN
OSAGE PETTIS PIKE
POLK PULASKI RALLS
RANDOLPH SALINE SCHUYLER
SCOTLAND SHELBY ST. CLAIR
VERNON WARREN WEBSTER


ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DVN...EAX...ICT...ILX...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW1
WW 1 TORNADO IL KS MO 071955Z - 080300Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10SSW JLN/JOPLIN MO/ - 45NNE UIN/QUINCY IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /31ESE OSW - 46NNE UIN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.

LAT...LON 37009593 40549230 40548944 37009320

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.


Watch 1 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

Also no MDT, but SLGT expanded to Chicagoland...

[Cyclenall]

I'm getting thunderstorms in southern Ontario. It's January 7th, and this is the 3rd time in a row that each year for me had a thunderstorm in the middle of winter (Feb.16 2006, Jan.1 2007, and now Jan.7 2008!!). I never remember this ever. The storms also hit upper MI.

Along with this topic and ideas, I knew there was a good chance for Ontario to get normal thunderstorms a week and a half ago. The lightning data from TWN is pretty impressive for southern Ontario.

[snoopj]

I need to see about a screenshot, but that cell in Missouri with the current Tornado Warning was pushing 77dbz on the reflectivity. For a brief period there, it sure had some intensity inside of it. That's for sure.

--snoopj

[RL3AO]

I got to school and saw a SVR warning for So. Wisconsin. I looked at the cities in the path and it was in the mid-30's. Couldn't believe it.

[RL3AO]

Code: Select all

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 2
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   235 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
          PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA
          MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS
          SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST INDIANA
          LAKE MICHIGAN
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL 900
   PM CST.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PEORIA
   ILLINOIS TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MEIGS FIELD ILLINOIS.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1...
   
   DISCUSSION...WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS WATCH AREA AND THE VERY STRONG SHEAR
   ENVIRONMENT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NRN IL.  IN ADDITION
   TO THE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THREAT...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
   ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE DISCRETE UPDRAFTS NOW DEVELOPING
   NERN MO AND NWRN IL.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
   
   
   ...HALES

--------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
242 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

MOC015-072130-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080107T2130Z/
BENTON MO-
242 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CST FOR BENTON
COUNTY...

AT 239 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
RACKET...OR NEAR WARSAW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LINCOLN BY 250 PM CST.
COLE CAMP BY 300 PM CST.

THE TOWNS OF EDMONSON AND CROCKERVILLE ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
TORNADO.

ST. CLAIR COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCH
DOWN WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION TO A POSSIBLE TORNADO...LARGE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST MONDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3854 9324 3854 9308 3841 9307 3839 9308
3828 9308 3818 9351 3821 9353 3852 9351
3851 9329 3855 9327
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 235DEG 54KT 3825 9343

$$

CRAMER

First reported tornado of the year.

[CrazyC83]

I'm getting thunderstorms in southern Ontario. It's January 7th, and this is the 3rd time in a row that each year for me had a thunderstorm in the middle of winter (2006, 2007, and now 2008!!). I never remember this ever. The storms also hit upper MI.

Along with this topic and ideas, I knew there was a good chance for Ontario to get normal thunderstorms a week and a half ago. The lightning data from TWN is pretty impressive for southern Ontario.

Even up north, thunderstorms are expected this evening. Temperatures could get up in the 50s up here as well...amazing considering the normal high here is around 20.

Thunderstorms in January here are quite rare but by no means unheard-of, the last time there was one here was in January 2005...

[Cyclenall]

UPDATE: A caller in TWN just said he had hail somewhere in southern Ontario!!! Insane, hail is not common here even in the heat of the summer let alone the middle of winter.

[CrazyC83]

UPDATE: A caller in TWN just said he had hail somewhere in southern Ontario!!! Insane, hail is not common here even in the heat of the summer let alone the middle of winter.

Looking at radar, that would have most likely been somewhere between Goderich and Bracebridge somewhere...

They did have isolated severe hail in Wisconsin this morning - probably related to those storms.

Back to the cold front, that is sure firing up fast! Maybe an outbreak could happen out of nowhere? I would have gone 10% tornado personally but held off on the MDT...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I am picking Springfield, MO as my tornado pick city, during the evening hours today

OK, I was about 500 miles off from a week ago, but I wouldn't rule out an upgrade to moderate, for Southern MO and Northern Arkansas.


WRF trickling out now, we shall see...

I thought 'Moderate' wasn't out of the question...

[RL3AO]

Central Missouri