Severe weather outbreak - May 29-31

[wbug1]

Severe cells redeveloping in Kansas, Minnesota. Somewhat intense line in New York. Heavy cells continue to move through Heathsville to Ocean City, Maryland. TS developing west of Philadelphia. Strong cell to NE of Richmond, VA.

[KWT]

000
WFUS51 KAKQ 312110
TORAKQ
VAC097-312145-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.TO.W.0047.080531T2110Z-080531T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
510 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL KING AND QUEEN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 508 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
STEVENSVILLE...OR NEAR KING WILLIAM...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
KING AND QUEEN COURTHOUSE BY 515 PM EDT...
LITTLE PLYMOUTH BY 525 PM EDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3776 7677 3775 7676 3773 7675 3760 7680
3767 7691 3769 7693 3769 7694 3773 7700
3778 7697
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 285DEG 38KT 3772 7694

$$

WAMSLEY

[KWT]

000
WUUS51 KBGM 312130
SVRBGM
PAC069-127-312230-
/O.NEW.KBGM.SV.W.0019.080531T2130Z-080531T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
530 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LACKAWANNA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 527 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
DICKSON CITY...MOVING EAST AT 38 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ARCHBALD...MAYFIELD AND 7 MILES SOUTH OF CARBONDALE BY 535 PM
EDT...
MOUNT COBB BY 540 PM EDT...
TRESSLARVILLE AND 9 MILES SOUTH OF WAYMART BY 545 PM EDT...
LAKE ARIEL AND 8 MILES NORTH OF STERLING BY 550 PM EDT...
ARLINGTON BY 555 PM EDT...
HAWLEY BY 605 PM EDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MEANS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING
OR IS IMMINENT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE ALL LIKELY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE STORM
MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

LAT...LON 4148 7576 4163 7572 4163 7506 4146 7519
4142 7525 4137 7527 4136 7529 4137 7534
4137 7535 4134 7534 4133 7532 4128 7533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 280DEG 33KT 4148 7560

$$

[wbug1]

Some storms in Florida. I can't access the west radars.

[KWT]

000
WUUS51 KBOX 312156
SVRBOX
MAC011-013-015-312300-
/O.NEW.KBOX.SV.W.0020.080531T2156Z-080531T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
556 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
CENTRAL HAMPDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SPRINGFIELD...CHICOPEE...
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NORTHAMPTON...AMHERST...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 553 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NORTHAMPTON TO 8 MILES WEST OF WEST SPRINGFIELD...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORTHAMPTON TO 12 MILES WEST OF
CHICOPEE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
NORTHAMPTON AND EASTHAMPTON BY 600 PM EDT...
HATFIELD...WEST SPRINGFIELD AND HOLYOKE BY 605 PM EDT...
SOUTH HADLEY AND HADLEY BY 610 PM EDT...
AMHERST...SPRINGFIELD AND GRANBY BY 615 PM EDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. GO INDOORS NOW...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
GO INDOORS NOW...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4245 7240 4205 7249 4210 7274 4248 7266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 282DEG 30KT 4238 7274 4212 7278

$$

EKSTER

[HarlequinBoy]

There hasn't been any tornadoes reported today. I don't think the MOD is going to verify.

[KWT]

No the warnings are fairly infrequant though plenty of severe thunderstorm warnings. Personally I'd have stuck with slight.

000
WUUS51 KBOX 312220
SVRBOX
MAC011-013-015-027-312315-
/O.NEW.KBOX.SV.W.0021.080531T2220Z-080531T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
620 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL WORCESTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
EASTERN HAMPDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
SOUTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 616 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PELHAM TO HAMPDEN...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM AMHERST TO SPRINGFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 41
MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
PALMER BY 625 PM EDT...
WARE AND MONSON BY 630 PM EDT...
WARREN...WALES...HARDWICK AND BRIMFIELD BY 635 PM EDT...
WEST BROOKFIELD AND NEW BRAINTREE BY 640 PM EDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. GO INDOORS NOW...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. GO
INDOORS NOW...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDIN AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

LAT...LON 4240 7209 4203 7215 4204 7250 4242 7241
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 282DEG 36KT 4241 7240 4207 7245

$$
MEKSTER

[wx247]

I do feel the Moderate risk will verify in Kansas and Oklahoma. This is going to be a very big wind/hail event, I feel, rather than a tornado situation. Further east, which is what I assume you are referring to... that is a different story.

[RL3AO]

Minneapolis is under a tornado warning.

[KWT]

00
WFUS53 KDLH 312255
TORDLH
MNC021-035-312345-
/O.NEW.KDLH.TO.W.0006.080531T2254Z-080531T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
554 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CROW WING COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTH CENTRAL CASS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 551 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LAKE
SHORE...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRAINERD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

* THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
EAST GULL LAKE AND LAKE SYLVAN BY 600 PM...
RED SAND LAKE AND NORTH LONG LAKE BY 610 PM...
BAXTER BY 615 PM...
BRAINERD AND BARROWS BY 620 PM...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE...OR A BASEMENT
STAIRCASE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

LAT...LON 4618 9435 4630 9434 4645 9461 4659 9445
4639 9392 4617 9418
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 309DEG 26KT 4645 9441

$$

LILES

[RL3AO]

A lot of people on the lakes this weekend in Northern Minnesota.

[Bunkertor]

Min warning will expire. But that´s not the end of the line

[Bunkertor]

SAW7
WW 407 TORNADO KS OK 312325Z - 010600Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40S AVK/ALVA OK/ - 45SSE CNU/CHANUTE KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /38WSW END - 5SSE OSW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.

LAT...LON 36909866 37799516 36349516 35479866

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.

[Bunkertor]

Tornado Watch 407

WW0407 Radar
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 407
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 625 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH OF ALVA
OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 403...WW 404...WW
405...WW 406...

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DEEPENING CUMULUS
CONVECTION ALONG AND N OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS BY ABOUT 00Z. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FEED THIS
CONVECTION FROM THE S...AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F AND SOMEWHAT
ENHANCED SRH ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD ALSO SUPPORT A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE AN
INITIAL THREAT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SMALL
MCS ACROSS SE KS/NE OK WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like today's storms all remained elevated enough to preclude tornadic activity, at least those related to the outbreak. (The storms in Minnesota are a separate system, while the Oklahoma storms appear to be semi-related)

[wx247]

Storm spotters in Barton County, MO are reporting transformer flashes. Tornado likely on the ground just west of Liberal... *wedge shaped*

[Category 5]

I'm waiting for it.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1058 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

PAC017-091-010315-
/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-080601T0315Z/
MONTGOMERY PA-BUCKS PA-
1058 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL BUCKS AND EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 1054 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRITTANY FARMS-HIGHLANDS...OR 19 MILES
NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 34 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
IVYLAND...WARMINSTER HEIGHTS AND HATBORO BY 1105 PM EDT...
RICHBORO AND NEWTOWN GRANT BY 1110 PM EDT...
CHURCHVILLE...VILLAGE SHIRES...FEASTERVILLE AND LANGHORNE BY 1115
PM EDT...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 4021 7480 4015 7493 4013 7502 4025 7528
4033 7507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 304DEG 29KT 4026 7514

$$

RNS

[KWT]

000
WUUS55 KPUB 010759
SVRPUB
COC061-010930-
/O.NEW.KPUB.SV.W.0027.080601T0759Z-080601T0930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
159 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 330 AM MDT...

* AT 155 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING LARGE...DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL
SIZE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EADS...OR ABOUT
27 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAMAR...AND WAS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
AT 29 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SWEETWATER RESERVOIR.

IF POSSIBLE...WITHOUT RISKING YOUR SAFETY...PROTECT PROPERTY BEFORE
THE WEATHER HITS. GET IN A STURDY STRUCTURE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...OR A BASEMENT CAN OFFER THE BEST
PROTECTION.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM MDT SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3841 10217 3827 10217 3827 10242 3826 10269
3852 10306 3859 10289
TIME...MOT...LOC 0758Z 303DEG 25KT 3842 10283

$$

[HarlequinBoy]

Slight chance of severe here. Nothing too significant. The chance for southern outbreaks will be minimal, or dwindling, until October/November.

[brunota2003]

Well, yesterday's severe weather (or in general, any storms at all) was held off because the Cap was too strong.

Today is another slight risk day, however the pops have been scaled back from 50% to 30% because, once again, of the Cap (quick look outside supports a strong cap, most of the cumulus clouds are flat).

MHX Near Term Discussion:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MINOR GRID UPDATE FOR SKY CONDITION THIS MORNING BUT NO ZFP UPDATE
NEEDED. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER AREA THIS AFTN BUT MAY HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER SO KEPT ONLY CHC POPS FOR
NOW AND DELAYED START UNTIL 18Z AS CONVECTIVE TEMP IS 90. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN COULD EASILY BECOME SVR. MODIFIED MHX 12Z
SOUNDING FOR TEMP/DEW PT OF 90/70 GIVES CAPE OF 3100...LI
-8...WINDEX 59 KTS. WBZ OF 10500 FT AND 500 MB TEMP OF -10C
INDICATES VIL OF DAY AROUND 55...WHILE FRZG LVL AROUND 13500 FT
RESULTS IN 50-55 DBZ HGT ON 31500 FOR SVR.