Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 160149
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
949 PM AST MON MAR 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS FA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...AS
THE COMBINATION OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...AND A FEW
SHOWERS...ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AS IT APPROACHES TO THE REGION...LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A BAND OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF THIS FEATURE AND THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND A GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL THEN RESUME
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY...IF ANY...AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BAND OF MOISTURE
WILL BRING VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITION MAINLY ACROSS TKPK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.That area of clouds that affected the Windwards with some needed rain will arrive here later today.But not a big rain event is expected with this.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST TUE MAR 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA WITH SHORT WAVES RUNNING THROUGH STRONG NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW NORTH OF THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SHIFTS TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY AS MID LATITUDE TROUGHS PUSH INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CAUSE LOCAL FLOW TO BECOME SOMEWHAT SOUTHWESTERLY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN 30 AND 40 NORTH
WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. BY SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE
WEEKEND. BY THE FOLLOWING MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE HAS GROWN TO COVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT ARE SLOWLY MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AT OR
ABOVE 5 THOUSAND FEET IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD PUERTO RICO FROM
ITS CURRENT POSITION AT AND SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS AREA WERE NOT DETECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND A
CLOUD SIGNATURE EMANATING FROM THE AREA AT SUNSET LAST NIGHT
INDICATED THAT AN AREA OF DRY AIR IS STILL IN PLACE OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY WITH THE GFS BEING THE WETTER SOLUTION TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THE NAM IS STILL OVER-ESTIMATING CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE ISLAND AS IT HAS IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO WILL GO WITH THE
DRIER NAM SOLUTION MINUS THE CONVECTION WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND POPS TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN SOUTH AT 850 MB NOW IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS AND MUST TAKE THIS AS A POSITIVE SIGN THAT THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND THAT ONLY THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL AFFECT US. AMOUNT OF RAIN IN THE AREA OF MOISTURE NOW MOVING
TOWARD SAINT CROIX AND...LATER THIS MORNING...PUERTO RICO...IS
UNCERTAIN AND FLAGGED AS VERY LIGHT IN THE GFS...SO EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS ONLY THE NAM
BRINGS IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BEFORE 17/00Z. AFTER 16/22Z EXPECT
AREAS OF SHOWERS TO GROW. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WERE FORECAST TO
TURN NORTHERLY AND MID-CLOUDS AROUND THE FRONT NEAR HISPANIOLA ARE
INCREASING...SO PATCHES OF RAIN SHOULD COME ONSHORE ON THE NORTH
COAST THIS EVENING AND MAY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY THE
NAM IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE GFS ABOUT LOW RAIN CHANCES. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON THURSDAY AND STAYS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
MOISTURE EXPECTED ON MONDAY IS NOW BEING HANDLED IN A MUCH MORE
MUTED MANNER AND SO HAVE MADE LITTLE OR NO CHANGES TO GRIDS FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLOUDINESS AND SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJBQ...TJSJ...TIST...AND TISX AFTER 16/22Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VARIABLE DURING THE DAY...BUT SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AFTER 17/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS SWELL FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH REACH THE LOCAL AREA WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
GOING UP FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS IN THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY. SEAS
THEN RELAX UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN SEAS RISE AGAIN DUE TO MORE
LOCAL EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEAS GENERALLY
INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 8 DAYS...BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

[tropicana]

TRINIDAD UPDATE: Tue March 16, 2010

DAY # 41 of the dry spell
DAY # 22 of the heatwave

Feb 4 -March 16 **and counting ... no measurable rainfall at Piarco International Airport

Piarco Airport has never gone more than 30 days consecutively without rainfall, prior to 2010.


Very blistering hot conditions continued on Trinidad today, and temperatures reached a high of 35.5C 96F at Piarco International Airport Tuesday afternoon

Since Feb 23, the temperature has reached or exceeded 33.7C 93F every day ( a string of 22 days consecutively) and most of those days, reached 94F and 95F

[cycloneye]

The maximun 92F has been reached for three consecutive days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST TUE MAR 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A BAND OF MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWESTWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA HAS
STALLED ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A BAND OF MOISTURE
APPROACHING SAINT CROIX FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN THEREAFTER NOT LIKELY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS...ESPECIALLY AROUND TISX AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WATERS IN PASSING SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE MONTSERRAT
SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO REMAINS MAINLY QUIET...A FAINT PLUME OF
LIGHT ASH OR STEAM CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES. GIVEN CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND FLOW...THIS SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF TKPK AND TNCM TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE MERCURY REACHED 92 DEGREES AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW...BUT
THIS READING FELL ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
FOR THIS DATE OF 93 DEGREES SET IN 1983.

[Macrocane]

The high temperatures have continued in Central America, some cities experienced today some of the highest temperatures of the year. Some maximum temperatures registered today:

Santa Ana, El Salvador 35.6°C/96.1 °F
San Salvador, El Salvador 33.1°C/91.6 °F
San Miguel, El Salvador 39°C/102.2 °F
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 33°C/91 °F
Guatemala, Guatemala 31°C/88°F
Managua, Nicaragua 37°C/99°F

Warm minimum temperatures have continued too, some minimum temperatures registered this morning:

Santa Ana, El Salvador 21.7°C/71.1 °F
San Salvador, El Salvador 22.1°C/71.8 °F
San Miguel, El Salvador 25.3°C/77.5 °F
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 21°C/70 °F
Guatemala, Guatemala 18°C/64°F
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C/77°F

Thankfully tomorrow a high pressure system will bring some cooler air and will increase the wind speed bringing a relief at least to Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador.

[cycloneye]

Light rain is falling while I am typing this post.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
941 PM AST TUE MAR 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS SOME SMALL BANDS OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
AREA...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO HISPANIOLA WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AT LEAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
SLOPES.

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Round up Tue Mar 16 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 35.5C 96F
Crown Point, Tobago 30.4C 86F
Point Salines, Grenada 30.2C 86F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.5C 89F
Hato Airport, Curacao 31.4C 88F
Queen Beatrix Airport, Bonaire 33.1C 92F
Hewanorra, St Lucia 32.2C 90F
Melville Hall, Dominica 32.0C 90F
Le Lementin, Martinique 34.1C 93F
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 31.6C 89F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.8C 87F
VC Bird, Antigua 32.0C 90F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 33.3C 92F

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Not as warm today for a change.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST WED MAR 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TWO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE AFFECTING THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE IS NOW LOCATED AT AROUND
40 N AND 33 W WITH AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT NOW LOCATED
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE IS NOW LOCATED AT
AROUND 36 N AND 58 W...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED TO THE FIRST LOW CLOSER TO
OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTED THE NORTHERN
COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE
SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED TO A PREFONTAL FEATURE THAT IS NOW
LOCATED EAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AFFECTING A FEW PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...DRY
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WESTERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 17/18-22Z ACROSS TJBQ...AND TJMZ.


&&

.MARINE...THE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL BEGAN TO AFFECT THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE BUOY 41043 REPORTED SWELLS OF AROUND
6.8 TO 7.2 FEET FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THEREFORE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FRO THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM LIGHT TO MODERATE FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
REST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

[Macrocane]

Good morning! Something unusual happened around midnight in El Salvador, heavy rainfall was registered in some parts of the country, actually it was the most widespread and heaviest rainfall since December 20. In San Salvador the rain started around midnight and lasted for about 3 hours, I still don't have observations of accumulated precipitation but as soon as I have them I will post them here. Thanks to the rain we have had a cooler dawn/morning than on the previous days.

Some IR images:

March 17 2010 00:15


March 17 2010 5:45 am


And changing the topic, at 03:09 am a 4.6 earthquake was felt, this is the third earthquake since saturday that has been felt in the country, the three of them have had their epicenter in the subduction zone offshore El Salvador.

[Macrocane]

Like I've mentioned before, March is the 4th driest month in El Salvador with an average of 14 mm (0.55 inches) for the whole country and 10 mm (0.39 inches) for San Salador, but with the rains that we had earlier today those averages has been surpassed. The national average was 16 mm (0.69 inches) and the accumulated precipitation in San Salvador was 50 mm (1.97 inches) that's 5 times the average. The highest amount was registered in El Boqueron (San Salvador volcano) with a value of 78.2 mm (3.08 inches).

In this graphic you can see the distribution of the precipitation in 24 hours from 7:00 am yesterday to 7:00 am today:

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST WED MAR 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
TO JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON... WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
FRAGMENTS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST
OF THE EVENING WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHEAST
SURFACE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A GRADUAL SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
REESTABLISHES ITSELF...AND BUILDS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FROM THEN ON...AND INTO THE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH SINKS SOUTH OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS... LIMITED
RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH...WITH ONLY A FEW
DIURNAL AND LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARDS WHILE DISSIPATING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THEREAFTER...
AND INTO THURSDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY FAIR WEATHER
AND MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE PREVAILING WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IF ANY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO AND THE REST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...
LATEST GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA...AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE ON NEXT
WEEK...THEREFORE LOOK FOR AN ENJOYABLE AND PLEASANT WEATHER
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 17/23Z ACROSS
TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ FROM 17/18Z-17/22Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLY OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ESE BY 18/14Z.

[tropicana]

wow, lots of rain over there in el salvador! great news im sure for them

Regional Weather Round-up Wed Mar 17 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 35.4C 95F
Crown Point, Tobago 30.3C 86F trace
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.5C 89F
Hato, Curacao 32.3C 90F
Queen Beatrix, Bonaire 33.0C 91F
Flamingo, Aruba 31.1C 88F
Canefield Airport , Dominica 32.8C 91F
Le Lementin, Martinique 32.3C 90F
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 32.0C 90F
VC Bird, Antigua 32.1C 90F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.7C 87F
West End, Anguilla 31.0C 88F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 29.4C 85F

[Macrocane]

Yes, it's nice to have some rain especially after the previous warm nights.
This afternoon some rains were registered in the eastern third of the country that hadn't seen rain earlier today also a "northerly winds" event has begun and according to the SNET they could reach 45 km/h (28 mph) tomorrow. Thanks to those relatively cool and drier winds tonight has not been as warm as on the weekend and earlier this week and actually is cooler than last night. Here is the lated TWD that is very interesting:

GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND TIGHTENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DROP BELOW 20 KT FRI AFTERNOON. TO THE S...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY JUST BEFORE SUNSET SHOWED THE BEGINNINGS OF AN ARC CLOUD
FORMING SW OF THE GULF OF FONSECA. THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAD BEEN
SLOW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG WINDS IN TEHUANTEPEC LAST
NIGHT...AND THEY SEEM TO BE HAVING SIMILAR PROBLEMS THIS EVENING
ASSUMING THIS ARC CLOUD IS THE BEGINNING OF 20 KT N WINDS IN THE
GULF OF FONSECA AND THAT THE 26 KT OBSERVATION FROM SHIP ZCDG4
NEAR THE COAST OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FROM 1700 UTC IS STILL
REPRESENTATIVE. AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SHIFTS E THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...LOOK FOR WINDS TO
DIMINISH IN FONSECA BUT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM W OF 90W FROM PAPAGAYO
AS THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS MORE EASTERLY.

Here is the latest IR image where you can see the arc cloud they're talking about:

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.A warm and dry weekend ahead.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 AM AST THU MAR 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW LOCATED NEAR 38 N AND
40 W WILL MOVE EAST...THIS WILL HELP THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
LOCATED OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION. STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTED THE MONA
PASSAGE...INCLUDING MONA ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED TO
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW LOCATED OVER THE PUERTO RICO AND USVI.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE INCOMING
WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLY OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ESE BY
18/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...THE NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. ANOTHER
PULSE WILL BE REACHING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE WAVE WATCH 3 SUGGEST THE SWELL TO PEAK AROUND 1.6
METERS WITH A PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS. THIS SWELL WILL START TO
QUICKLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY. AFTER THIS PULSE MODELS DO NOT SHOW
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ON WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS SUGGESTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ON THE EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AFTER TUESDAY...IF THIS OCCURS EXPECT
DANGEROUS CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

[Macrocane]

Good morning.

For the first time in a week the temperature minimum temperature was below 20 °C/68 °F in San Salvador thanks to the cool northerly winds. Other cities from El Salvador and Central America experienced their lowest tempeartures in a week too. Some observations:

San Salvador, El Salvador 19.2 °C/66.6 °F
Santa Ana, El Salvador 18.5 °C/65.3 °F
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.1 °C/75.4 °F
Guatemala, Guatemala 13 °C/55 °F
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17 °C/63 °F
Belize, Belize 19 °C/66 °F

[tropicana]

TRINIDAD UPDATE: Thu March 18, 2010

93F 34.0C today!
DAY # 43 of the dry spell
DAY # 24 of the heatwave

Feb 4 -March 18 **and counting ... no measurable rainfall at Piarco International Airport
This is now the longest dry spell on record.
Piarco Airport has never gone more than 30 days consecutively without rainfall, prior to 2010.


Brief, very light sprinkles failed to produce more than just a trace of rain at Piarco International Airport on Thursday.
The hot spell continued onward, with the mercury hitting 34.0C 93F at Piarco.
Water vapor imagery depicts very dry air just to the east of the Caribbean, and this will play a part in continuing the dry weather trend for days to come. As HIGH pressure intensifies, easterly winds will strengthen over the next 24-48 hours, and this will cause seas to become rough and very choppy especially on east and north coast exposed areas. Caution is strongly advised. Small craft operators should not venture far from port.

Since Feb 23, the temperature has reached or exceeded 33.7C 93F every day ( a string of 24 days consecutively) and most of those days, reached 94F and 95F

[cycloneye]

Very warm today and it looks like it will continue this way for the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST THU MAR 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOWER LEVEL
REFLECTIONS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES LOCALLY
AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MAINLY SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS...SHOULD
RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT NORTH COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

THUS FAR...THE TEMPERATURE AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN MADE IT TO 91 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER A
RATHER SHORT-LIVED AND FEEBLE SEA BREEZE. THIS READING WAS 3
DEGREES BELOW THE RECORD OF 94 DEGREES. WE EXPECT AT LEAST 91
DEGREES FOR FRIDAY THE 19TH (THE RECORD IS A SCORCHING 96 SET IN
1983) AND SATURDAY THE 20TH (RECORD IS A REACHABLE 92 SET IN
1981.) ANYWAY...RECORDS OR NOT...THE COMBINATION OF IMPRESSIVE
DAYTIME HEAT AND ABOVE NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...(NORMALS ARE
83/72)...CONTINUES TO RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND SOMETIMES
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE
URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND TAKE IT EASY IN THESE CONDITIONS AND ARE
REMINDED TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
A MAINLY SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
OFF SHORE WATERS TONIGHT.

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Roundup
Thu Mar 18 2010

High temps and rainfall (if any)

Piarco, Trinidad 34.0C 93F Trace
Crown Point, Tobago 31.8C 89F
Point Salines, Grenada 30.8C 87F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.5C 89F
Hato, Curacao 31.9C 90F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 32.5C 91F 1.2mm
Flamingo, Bonaire 31.1C 88F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.3C 88F
Hewanorra, St Lucia 32.2C 90F
Vigi, St Lucia 32.6C 91F
Canefield, Dominica 33.0C 91F
Le Lamentin, Martinique 32.1C 90F
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 32.0C 90F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 29.8C 86F
VC Bird, Antigua 30.7C 87F
Charlotte Amalie, St Thomas VI 30.6C 87F
Juliana, Saint Maarten VI 29.4C 85F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 32.8C 91F

-justin-

[Macrocane]

Good evening, the cool northerly winds persist in Central America and thanks to them the maximum temperatures were not as high as on the previous days this week, at least in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and the western 2/3 of El Salvador. The max temperatures in some cities:

San Salvador, El Salvador 31.8 °C/89.2 °F
Santa Ana, El Salvador 31.9 °C/89.4 °F
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27 °C/81 °F
Guatemala, Guatemala 25 °C/77 °F
Belize, Belize 28 °C/82 °F

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.A warm and dry weekend is on tap for Puerto Rico.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST FRI MAR 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES LOCALLY AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER AND SATELLITES IMAGES REPORTED LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TODAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE...A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
GENERATING A EAST SOUTHEAST WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
TODAY THEREFORE EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE....MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHERN SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. ANOTHER PULSE OF NORTHERN SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
LATE SATURDAY...THIS SECOND PULSE WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY.
OVERALL...SEAS EXPECTED 3 TO 5 FEET MOST OF THE TIME.