SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[jasons2k]

I was at the Med Center this morning. Drove home around 11 when the front rolled through. I estimate gusts in the 50mph range along the Hardy Toll Road (hit the gust front near Airline). Dark squall line with sideways rain for a bit. After I got home, it was a few hours of intermittent mod-heavy rain, now just a light rain. Pretty much what I expected...

Good soup weather

[CajunMama]

The temp dropped 18.5 degrees in an hour! We went from 89.5 down to 70.8 in an hour! I'm totally enjoying this!

[southerngale]

There's been a whole lot more post frontal rain than I thought there was going to be. I've gotten a lot more rain after the initial line went through than I did with the line itself. And it's still raining!

I also just wanted to say that I love my new house. I had a tiny porch at my old house and even though we had added a deck, it wasn't covered. I had no patio. I have a large covered patio now, where we put porch rockers. I absolutely love to sit out there and watch it rain. I also have a covered porch with a chair out there, but the patio is bigger and we have other stuff out there as well. I just love it. And it feels so good outside right now.

[srainhoutx]

Down to 57 degrees at 6:15 PM. Not too shabby from the 81 degrees when I woke up this morning.

[vbhoutex]

Down to 57 degrees at 6:15 PM. Not too shabby from the 81 degrees when I woke up this morning.

Same here on the temps. Still raining lightly. We have had almost or just over an inch today which works fine for me. Hopefully tomorrow will at least partly cloudy and dryer so we can take our Granddaughter to the pumpkin patch.

[JenBayles]

Is the front still stalled in the Gulf, or has it barely begun moving back our way? What's with the blow-up just off Brownsville?

[vbhoutex]

Is the front still stalled in the Gulf, or has it barely begun moving back our way? What's with the blow-up just off Brownsville?

I haven't looked at anything, but the blow up off of B'ville is probably the coastal low that was progged to happen with this stall. It was expected to either be a low or a trough.

BTW, it never got above 63ºf today here in my neighborhood.

Found this in Talkin tropics by wxman57

Just a natural wave on the cold front off the lower TX coast.

[JenBayles]

Thanks David. I'm keeping an eye on that radar - don't want any rain late tomorrow morning. I'm speaking in church and can just imagine a lightning bolt hitting just as I open my mouth...

[vbhoutex]

Thanks David. I'm keeping an eye on that radar - don't want any rain late tomorrow morning. I'm speaking in church and can just imagine a lightning bolt hitting just as I open my mouth...

Why? Have you been a bad girl?

[JenBayles]

Thanks David. I'm keeping an eye on that radar - don't want any rain late tomorrow morning. I'm speaking in church and can just imagine a lightning bolt hitting just as I open my mouth...

Why? Have you been a bad girl?

No! It's part of the annual stewardship campaign. The pastor asked me to do the "spoken witness" part of the service. Seeing that radar lit up this morning isn't helping my nerves either!

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like it will be a rainy night and Monday. I don't see much on radar as of right now. I think there will be some development later on.

Overnight: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 60. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Columbus Day: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff...

After a refreshing yet dreary weekend the warm and humid weather will make a strong return over the next 24 hours.

Cold front that passed through the region on Friday provided IAH with two consecutive days in the 60’s breaking record low maximums. This was the first time since October 2002 that IAH recorded two consecutive October days in the 60’s. Front is very slowly returning northward as a warm front this morning and currently extends from near Lake Charles to Galveston Island to offshore of Matagorda Bay and then turns southward as a coastal trough to offshore of SPI and is moving NW at less than 5mph. Widespread light rain and fog blanket the areas north and west of this boundary as a 30kt low level jet pumps Gulf moisture over the top of the cooler near surface air mass. Stronger convection has been developing offshore and right along the coast where the boundary currently resides. Models want to push the front northward fairly quickly today and then stall it tonight from near Victoria to Huntsville. Given the fact that the front has moved very little since yesterday…I do not see such a rapid northward advancement especially given the fog and rainfall north of the boundary helping to keep it locked in place. Will likely see a gradual erosion of the surface cool dome as warm southerly feed erodes it from south to north.

Models are fairly aggressive with rain chances today and Tuesday, but besides the northward moving boundary there appears little to focus convection on. So far the convection has been scattered and QPF fairly small. Models peg our southern counties this afternoon south of the warm front for more widespread convection, but I am not sure this is going to pan out especially if the front is still bogged down on the coast. Will continue with high rain chances through the next 36 hours however amounts should remain under an inch for most locations.

Upper high builds across the Gulf into coastal TX for mid week helping to limit convection. Temperatures will return to the upper 80’s/lower 90’s with dewpoints back into the uncomfortable upper 70’s Wed-Thurs. PWS will remain in the 1.9-2.2 inch range so daily scattered convection will be possible although not as widespread as today or Tuesday.

Late Week:

Strong polar cold front will plow into TX early Thursday and enter SE TX Thursday afternoon. Large 1030mb Canadian high pressure system will drop almost due south down the front range of the Rockies supplying a direct shot of cold air deep into Texas and the Gulf of Mexico as the upper air flow changes from moist SW to dry NW. Forecast soundings show a very unstable air mass Thursday afternoon with CAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg across a large part of the area however moisture levels start to decrease and there will likely be some degree of capping creeping NE from the coastal bend. Will go with highest rain chances over our N counties and taper down to 30% for our southwest counties. Given the amount of CAPE being generated would not be surprised if a few storms did go severe.

Front plows off the coast with strong cold air advection in its wake as 1030mb high builds into TX. Very strong offshore flow will develop on Friday as cold air strikes the warm Gulf waters. Will easily see high end SCA conditions and possibly low end gale conditions across the coastal waters Friday. Inland winds will run 20-30mph out of the NW Friday. Front will sweep well into the Gulf with rapid clearing behind the boundary Thursday night. Secondary shot of cold air arrives early Saturday helping to keep winds out of the NW through the entire weekend. Dewpoints tank into the 40’s on Saturday and with clear skies and winds weakening Saturday night…the area appears to be in for some of the coldest weather since last spring. Widespread 40’s appear likely at most inland sites by Sunday morning. Given still high October sun angle…this will help offset some of the cold air advection Friday-Saturday allowing afternoon highs to still reach into the 70’s, but it will be a cool 70’s with the much lower dewpoints in place.

[jasons2k]

I measured .06" overnight.

Edited: and after reading Jeff's email, looks like a gorgeous weekend with the windows open

[southerngale]

I don't get measurements as accurate as Jason as I'm still using my el-cheapo rain gauge, but I dumped about 1.30" out Saturday morning, from Friday's rains. Yesterday, I just got some mist/drizzle and maybe light rain briefly, but nothing measurable. I got some pretty heavy showers this morning, though. I just checked my rain gauge and I picked up a quick .60 or so this morning, and it looks like more could be on the way later. I'm sure everyone is interested in how much rain I got.

Rain chances went up for tomorrow. NWS now has 60% for tomorrow and KFDM has 90%! Wow. We'll see.

[jasons2k]

The sun is out here (@ home today) and the DP is 70F...I think the warm front came through after all.

[gboudx]

I can't remember the last time the sun was out. It's been almost non-stop cloudy for at least a week.

[jasons2k]

7:30AM email from Jeff. Wet day ahead...

Warm front currently stalled across our northern and western counties this morning. Elsewhere very moist air mass has invaded from the Gulf of Mexico. Soundings show extreme level of moisture have returned with PWS up to 2.33 inches at CRP and close to 2.5 inches at BRO. Short wave moving into SW TX is enhancing lift along the lower TX coast/coastal bend this morning where s cluster of showers and thunderstorms has developed along I-37 between CRP and SAT. Additional activity has developed over our SE and E nearshore waters…but most of this activity is staying off the coast. Have recently seen a few showers develop further down the coast and over our NW counties suggesting increasing moisture and lift from approaching short wave are starting to do their thing.

With skies mainly clear over the inland sections, trigger temps. in the upper 70’s, and high dewpoints, do not think it will take much time to set things off today in this very moist and unstable air mass. Should see a round of storms possibly from the convection over SC TX make it way into our area, or additional/new development over the region late this morning as heating kicks into full swing.

Main threat today will continue to be heavy to at times excessive rainfall given the tremendous amounts of moisture in place and possibility for cell training. Fell that most of the rains will remain disorganized enough to preclude any serious flash flood threat.

Strong cold front still marked in for Thursday afternoon although guidance is trending slightly faster with the boundary. Large 1030-1035mb high straight out of NW Canada will be the driving force behind this early season cold air intrusion. Moisture start to decrease on Wednesday and fall even more on Thursday resulting in only a modestly favorable air mass for thunderstorms along the front. Will favor our N and NE counties with the SW counties likely seeing only a thin line of showers if even that given WSW boundary layer winds prior to frontal passage and a building mid level capping inversion off the higher terrain of NE Mexico. One thing is for sure…temperatures will be headed quickly downward. Strong cold air advection will onset Thursday evening with temps. falling into the 50’s under gusty north winds. Highs Friday under sunny skies will only reach the low to mid 70’s. Secondary cold shot arrives early Saturday helping to keep offshore flow locked in place. Will go with lows falling into the upper 40’s/low 50’s Sunday morning under clear skies with highs around 70 both Saturday and Sunday…fairly impressive cold shot for mid October and given the expected sunny skies helping to offset the cold air advection.

Gulf flow begins to return early next week with warm and muggy conditions to return. However this front is progged to sweep deep into if not clear the entire Gulf…so it will take a little time for deep tropical moisture to get pulled back into the region.

[srainhoutx]

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/13/09 1414Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1400Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...SE OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...CRP...
ATTN WFOS...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MID TX COAST...ORGANIZING HVY RAIN EVENT
CENTRAL TO NE TX INTO ARKANSAS...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN WAS CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER THAT WAS MOVING THRU THE AREA CENTERED ON VICTORIA COUNTY AND
HAS THE ALMOST UNHEARD OF 2.8" PWAT VALUES (RECORD BREAKING FOR OCTOBER
FOR CORPUS CHRISTY) HEADING NORTH FOR SE TX AND BOUNDARY SETTING UP
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NE TX INTO AR. AND THEN THERE IS THE CONDITIONS
SETTING UP FOR A POTENTIAL PREDECESSOR HVY RAIN EVENT THRU TONIGHT.
PATRICIA MOISTURE FLOWING FROM ITS CENTER JUST SOUTH OF BAJA AND CRITERIA
OF THAT HVY RAIN EVENT IS MORE THAN 4" IN A 24HR PERIOD AT LEAST 600
MILES FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER. AND WITH BAROCLINIC BAND FURTHER
DEVELOPING CENTRAL TO NE TX INTO AR AND COLD TOP CONVECTION BEGINNING
TO POPULATE THE BANDFROM HILL COUNTY TX TO UNION COUNTY AR...THIS AND
AREAS NEARBY PRIME FOR HVY RAIN BURSTS NEXT
12-18HRS AND WILL BE EYING SPECIFIC AREAS WITHIN HERE FOR TRAINING HVY
RAIN BURSTS. ALSO EYEING SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTH AND NE THRU WESTERN
AND SW TEXAS THAT WILL GIVE FURTHER LIFT WITH A MINOR CONTRIBUTION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL JET THAT IS CENTERED MEXICO TO THE
TX PANHANDLE TO MO. AND IF THAT WAS NOT ALL ENOUGH...ADDITIONAL DEEP
MOISTURE IN WESTERN GULF HAS BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY WEST AND NW AS PER
LATEST BLENDED TPW LOOP AND 200 PER CENT OF NORMAL AREA WITH ANOMALY
PRODUCT WAS EXPANDING NICELY IN TYPICAL FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
N TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SEE LATEST HPC FF OUTLOOK GUIDANCE FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

[southerngale]

We had some really strong thunderstorms last night into overnight. Lots of thunder and lightning, almost nonstop for a good while, including a few claps that rattled the windows, and some heavy rain. Since I didn't lose power, it was actually nice to listen to/watch a good old fashioned thunderstorm. If my electricity had gone out, I would have been ticked, though. Radar estimates put me in the 2 - 2 1/2 inch range, but I only dumped a little less than 2 inches from my rain gauge this morning, so something around there. It was a good bit and I think it's safe to say that the drought, at least here, is over. We don't need anymore rain.

Currently, the sun is shining brightly.

[JenBayles]

Looking forward to the end of the week! I've enjoyed all the humidity I can stand. It's also time to start cooking again. Cold weather always makes me want to stay in and experiment in the kitchen.

The Bear Creek Dome held up well yesterday - we only saw a few sprinkles as the storms passed just to our east. Current radar suggests we'll get some storms today, but you never know. Maybe they'll do the usual split when they get to western Harris County...