SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[srainhoutx]

Nice day today. I have heard that rain will be back next Thursday from Rick.

We shall see. Not spoiling a great weekend but keeping an eye on Rick.

[Ptarmigan]

We shall see. Not spoiling a great weekend but keeping an eye on Rick.

Yes, keeping an eye on Rick. It is the first Category 5 hurricane since Kenna in 2002. It gave our area rain.

[srainhoutx]

HGX Update today now mentioning Rick remnants...
FXUS64 KHGX 182019
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
319 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
1030 MB SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER SE TX TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE THEIR COOLEST
NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...WITH TEMPS AS LOW AS THE LOWER 40S
POSSIBLE OVER THE NE ZONES. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS ON MONDAY BUT
ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE GULF AIRMASS
MODIFIED BY THE RECENT FROPA. WILL SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS MONDAY
AFTN AND MUCH HIGHER MINS MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. LATE NIGHT/MORNING
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES REESTABLISHED.
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND WARM TEMPS ON TUESDAY BUT THE
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP.

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TUESDAY AND DEEPEN BEFORE PUSHING OUT ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30-35 KTS TUE NIGHT
WHICH PULLS MUCH DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE (PWS APPROACHING 2
INCHES) INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW BECOMES VERY
DIFFLUENT OVER THE AREA TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW COLUMN BECOMING NEARLY
SATURATED BY WED AFTN WITH A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE 70S WITH K-INDICES IN THE LOW
30S. WILL CONTINUE 20/30 POPS BEGINNING LATE TUE NIGHT FOR
STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL BLANKET HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA WED/WED NIGHT WITH ANTICIPATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH
OF A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS PERIOD...AS BOTH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR APPEAR TOO MARGINAL TOO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY WITH THE
MODELS NOW SHOWING THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE RICK BEING DRAWN INTO THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
OVERALL SLOWER GFS SOLUTION WITH THE FORECAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS
IT IS CLOSER TO THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST FOR HURRICANE RICK. THE
GFS SHOWS THE SFC FRONT STALLING JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY...WITH
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS TEXAS AND LIFTING THE
REMNANTS OF RICK FROM MEXICO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE OVERRIDES THE SHALLOW LAYER OF
COOL AIR NEAR THE SFC RESULTING IN AN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HPC DAYS 4-5 QPF FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 2+ INCHES OVER
ALL OF SE TX FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...WITH A
BULLS-EYE OF 2.8 INCHES OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES. WILL UPDATE THE
HWOHGX AND BEGIN TO TALK ABOUT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
THIS PERIOD. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE FINALLY EXITS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY WITH THE WHOLE MESS CLEARING OUT FRI NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER NICE WEEKEND ON TAP NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND
PLEASANT TEMPS AS SFC HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.

35

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff tonight...

Fall weather in SE TX does not get much better than this past weekend...but all good things must end and this nice weather will in fact by Tuesday.

Large 1030mb surface high responsible for the mild weekend and nearly cloudless skies with shift eastward Monday allowing the onset of SE low level winds and start of advection of deeper Gulf moisture northward. Powerful category 5 Hurricane Rick which peaked at 180mph this morning (becoming the second strongest hurricane in eastern Pacific history) will begin to feel the western extent of the sub-tropical high over Mexico and begin to turn NW taking aim at southern Baja.

Pieces of the puzzle coming together to allow deep tropical moisture to return to the area by Wednesday as a 35kt low level jet develops while the next upper trough approaches from the west. This upper trough will usher in the next frontal passage on early Thursday while at the same time hurricane Rick becomes captured by this trough and is sling-shotted NE into Mexico and then Texas. Will lean heavily toward the much wetter guidance solutions and given the interaction of a stalling frontal boundary with a very well defined EPAC hurricane...I am trending to go even wetter than what the guidance is suggesting given past experience with such events.

Will go with the front stalling just off the coast Thursday and then the remains of Rick come quickly out of Mexico Thursday night along and north of the frontal boundary....see NHC Day 5 forecast track below. Tremendous tropical moisture will overrun the shallow cool dome at the surface with strong vorticity center of the remains of Rick comes across early Friday. Will show rains starting Wednesday as the Gulf becomes fully open and then continuing into midday Friday. Periods of heavy to at times excessive rainfall appear possible given the nearly saturated air column, a surface boundary, and the entrainment of Rick's moisture and instability aloft.

Current HPC progs of widespread 2 inches Wed-Fri appear OK for now, but given the set-up I would not be surprised to see some significant increases in QPF values this week as the track of Rick and its associated moisture become better defined. Bears close watch!

[southerngale]

What a beautiful weekend! We've been going bike riding every day lately, going to the park, working in the yard, and just spending a lot of time outdoors. It feels great outside!
A little chilly tonight... it's already 45° which was Sunday morning's low here. Brrrr.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff...

Moisture from Tropical Storm Rick will combine with an approaching upper level trough and surface cold front to produce a good chance of rains across the region.

Once powerful hurricane Rick has rapidly weakened over the last 24 hours as 15-25kts of WSW shear and strong dry air entrainment as disrupted the once very well defined inner core. Mid and high level moisture plume is being pulled NE ahead of a digging upper trough over E CA/S NV this morning and is clearly noted in the increase in PW on the Del Rio sounding. Well respected GFDL and HWRF hurricane forecast models insist Rick will re-intensify has he approaches mainland Mexico and both make the system a hurricane again. Will disregard these models in favor of the more modest and weaker solutions given continued wind shear and unfavorable thermodynamic profiles surrounding the system. Regardless the impacts downstream over TX will be nearly the same as deep moisture in the mid and upper levels spills across the state.

Trough over the western US will swing eastward into the SW US today/tonight and into the plains on Wed sending a cold front southward. SE low level winds on the backside of the large surface high over the SW ATL will return Gulf moisture to the region today with surface dewpoints currently near 60 rising into the mid to upper 60’s by Wednesday morning. Dry PWS this morning will rapidly increase into the 1.5-1.75 inch range by early Wednesday and be near 2.0 inches by late Wednesday. Should begin to see streamers develop over the NW Gulf under increasing low level jet profile and increasing moisture by midday Wed.

Main event slated for Wednesday night through late Thursday as short waves from Rick, his associated moisture, lift from the upper trough, and surface cold front all come together over the region. Strongest PV from Rick and deepest moisture look aimed at SC and S TX into the coastal bend while the best upper dynamics with the upper trough appears aimed just north of this region…so they may not be completely in tune and this may save someone along with the fast progressive nature of this system a serious flooding event. Similar events in the past have produced some of the most devastating floods in TX history (Oct 1994, Oct 1998, Oct 2002, Oct 2006)…however this event seems slightly too progressive in nature to mount a significant flooding event…with that said we can see some hefty rainfall with such events and it is a little early to suggest flooding will not be an issue.

GFS is hammering away with large QPF bombs and will try and temper those somewhat as the model is suffering convective feedback. HPC guidance shows widespread 1-3 inches with isolated 3-5 inches possible. Such rainfall can be handled, although significant rises on area watersheds would be likely. Will need to closely monitor the meso scale ongoings early Thursday morning as there is the potential for an outflow boundary the possibly be in the region and help focus convective activity. Short term rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour would support urban/street flash flooding.

Hydro:

Excessive rainfall over N TX last week has produced flood waves reaches the middle and lower portions of the rivers that pass through our region. Flood wave on the Brazos has passed through all the forecast points while on the Trinity the water from N TX is just reaching areas above Lake Livingston. Will see rises along the lower Trinity both above the lake and below the lake as this flood wave is passed downstream. Rivers to the west have recovered from heavy rains earlier this month and have returned to near normal flow conditions. Heavy rainfall this week may result in rises on area watersheds.

[JenBayles]

<sigh> Another Bear Watch for Bear Creek area.

[vbhoutex]

<sigh> Another Bear Watch for Bear Creek area.

Yep and parts of Spring Branch too because they haven't done anything to alleviate the flooding here yet either. Quite a few homes in the flooded area up for sale now. Flooded twice in 5 years.

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff lends hope to no flooding issues.

Strong upper trough clearly noted on water vapor images south of the 4 corners moving E toward TX while TS Rick heads for western Mexico.



Radar is already active this morning as deep moisture and short waves from Rick move ENE across TX ahead of the approaching upper trough. Regional radars show numerous showers moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico in a strong warm air advection regime. Moisture (dewpoints and PWS) will increase today with PWS rising to near 2.0 inches by this evening. Strong short wave will cross Mexico from Rick and approach SW TX by early afternoon and then into the coastal bend and SE TX after dark.



Will see isolated to scattered rains this morning become increasingly heavier and more concentrated throughout the day. Cold front slated to arrive into our NW counties around daybreak Thursday and will combine with Rick’s mid and upper level moisture to produce a good chance of widespread rains. Models have come in slightly drier overnight and as I mentioned yesterday the timing of the front and main thrust of Rick’s moisture really do not line up….additionally the entire system is fast moving and storm motions should remain greater than 10kts throughout the event. Main concern will be any cell training this afternoon into the overnight ahead of the frontal boundary. For now until any kind of meso scale boundary can become established do not see this being a serious threat.



Will keep the widespread 1-2 inches across the area with isolated 3-4 inches possible especially E of I-45 and N of I-10. Amounts around Matagorda Bay may be closer to 1 inch. This is of some concern for the already swollen Trinity River. Short term rainfall rates under the stronger convection may approach 2-3 inches per hour leading to urban flooding issues.



As for the severe weather threat…low level shear does increase this afternoon as the warm front moves northward across the area. W Gulf buoys show warm sector air mass of upper 60 to low 70 degree dewpoints heading for Matagorda Bay and these will spread inland across nearly all of SE TX by late afternoon. However forecast soundings show little instability with only 500 J/kg of CAPE predicted over the region a result of extensive cloud cover and lack of solar heating. Low level wind shear does increase this afternoon with hodographs showing enough deep layer shear for supercell structures to develop with a low threat of an isolated tornado. Threat generally will shift ENE toward W LA by late evening as the warm front retreats northward.



Friday-Weekend:



Models trying to throw a kink into an otherwise carbon copy weekend of last weekend with clear skies and cool conditions. Latest runs try and develop a secondary short wave over Baja and then bring it E across the southern parts of the state Saturday night-Sunday. For now will go with the drier solutions and the GFS as opposed to the much cloudier and wetter ECMWF. Still looks like very nice conditions Friday –Sunday with lows back into the 40’s-50’s and highs in the 60’s-70’s, but will go ahead with scattered mid level clouds by Saturday afternoon.

Edit(2pm)-We've had some sunshine in West Houston, which could destabilize things a little. Radar returns are increasing and point to a possible convergence area on the NW side of Houston from Cypress NEwd imo. Time will tell. Overall it doesn't look like any of the city will escape rains. The question is when will they occur. East side in some places has already had some heavy rains.

[srainhoutx]

No rain yet David, but the Mid Level Moisture returns via radar from Rick may get a bit interesting on the current track for later tonight.

Edit @ 3:00PM Rainfall at my location.

[southerngale]

70% chance of thunderstorms today and so far, nothing. It looks like the best chance is later tonight and tomorrow, though. I'm headed out so I'm sure it will rain soon.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
339 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-212345-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
339 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW UP GULF MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...PACIFIC
MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES ROTATING OFF OF WEAKENING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION RICK WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY
ALONG THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS...FEEDER ROADS...SECONDARY
ROADS.

MANY OF THE RIVER SYSTEMS ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED IF THESE RAINS DO MATERIALIZE.

[JenBayles]

So far it's been a bust on the rain. Fine by me. The bulk of it keeps heading north before it gets here. Hoping it'll just stay that way...

[vbhoutex]

So far it's been a bust on the rain. Fine by me. The bulk of it keeps heading north before it gets here. Hoping it'll just stay that way...

Unfortunately all of that in West and SW TX is slowly moving East. I am glad we haven't had much rain today though. If it had been as wet as was earlier indicated all over the area, instead of just a few spots, then I think we would be looking at flooding issues beyond street ponding tomorrow. Hopefully this plays out without anyone getting flooding out of it.
Fortunately less than 1/4" so far.

[vbhoutex]

From HPC:

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
911 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2009

...VALID 03Z THU OCT 22 2009 - 00Z FRI OCT 23 2009...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 WNW GLE 10 SSW ADH 25 WNW MLC MLC 35 ESE AQR 10 NW SLR
10 SW CRS 20 ESE PWG 10 N GTU BMQ 30 SSE BWD 25 N 7F9 20 ENE RPH
20 WNW 1F9 30 WNW GLE.


THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS OVR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TX FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHERE THE INTERACTION OF CNVCTV
CELLS COULD RESULT IN INTENSE RNFL RATES OVR LOCALIZED AREAS.
COMBO OF STG MID LVL DYNAMICS..FAVORABLE UPR JET DYNAMICS..FNTL
CNVGNC AND A VRY MOIST AMS PER PWS NEAR 2.00 INCHES WILL SUPPORT
THE ACTVTY. AMTS OF 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR SO AND/OR
AMTS APCHG 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR STORM TOTALS IN
THE OUTLOOK AREA.


...SERN TX NEWD THRU LWR MS VLY...

MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF RICK WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY NEWD AND ITS
INTERACTION WITH THE FRONTAL BAND COULD RESULT IN A STRIPE OF VERY
HVY RAINS FM SERN TX NEWD THRU THE LWR MS VLY DURING THE DAY TMW.
ECMWF AND CMC MODELS STGLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO AND THE
VERY HI PWS AND STG NWD MSTR FLUX IN PLACE THERE ARE ALSO
IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER FFG NUMBERS ARE VERY HIGH SUGGESTING LIMITED
THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. COULD SEE QUICK 2.00 INCH RNFL TOTALS
HERE WITH 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES FOR STORM TOTALS BEING POSSIBLE.

KORTY

[JenBayles]

Rain got going around 5:00 this morning. Heavy at times, but with enough breaks that runoff is still OK. Taking my mom to the doc at Memorial City for a 10:00 appointment, so I hope we get a decent break between Rick remnants and rain associated with the front. Mom doesn't like riding in our pickup truck, but she's going to have to deal this time. No way am I driving her little Focus in this mess.

Everyone on the east side doing OK this morning? It's been looking pretty rough on radar.

[southerngale]

We've gotten rain on and off from last night until this morning. Mostly light to moderate, but it got kinda heavy at times. Like last night when I was loading groceries into my car. It was raining pretty heavy, but the wind was just awful. That was making it seem harder since it was all coming down sideways. I had one of those large "wind-proof" umbrellas with the extra wind layer... the rain was blowing and getting me and everything in my cart anyway. Everything was soaked. Then at my next stop, I opened my umbrella to discover a big hole in the top and it was raining on top of my head. LOL That extra "layer" that is supposed to be wind-proof had ripped off on one side, leaving a hole in the umbrella. Well, I got soaked and the umbrella is in the trash can. I went back to my car and got my mini one that fits in my purse. I think I'm going to leave it there from now on.
Btw, all that mess was moving north from the Gulf last night.

It looks like we're getting the heaviest stuff thus far this morning. It's been raining for a while and I keep hearing spurts of heavy rain, but the main enchilada is still approaching from the west.

There was a tornado warning about 7am in Liberty County, but I don't know if there was actually a tornado.

We're in a tornado watch until 1pm.

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 771
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

TORNADO WATCH 771 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC005-071-167-199-241-245-291-347-351-361-373-403-405-419-457-
221800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0771.091022T1055Z-091022T1800Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANGELINA CHAMBERS GALVESTON
HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON
LIBERTY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON
ORANGE POLK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER
$$

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
530 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-222100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
530 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

...HEAVY RAIN EVENT SETTING UP FOR TODAY...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW UP GULF MOISTURE
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCES ROTATING OFF OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RICK
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA. RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY AFTERNOON. AREA AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO
5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREATS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH
DRIER COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

[southerngale]

Wow. It's coming down in buckets, sheets. VERY heavy rain & really windy! In just a short period of heavy rain, the ditches are full and little ponds all over the yard. I just talked to my sister, who went through flooded water on the feeder road, trying to get on the freeway to get to work. She was already late, trying to wait for it to let up. It got worse after she left and she couldn't turn around. She's now on the freeway,going 6mph, looking at flooded out cars on the feeder road. The water has risen over the doors of cars and is entering the cars. I'm on the phone with her now (she has it on speaker) and she can't see a thing! I told her to pull over, but everyone is moving very slowly. It's bad here too, but I'm not driving!

[southerngale]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
856 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PORT NECHES...PORT ARTHUR...
NEDERLAND...HAMSHIRE...GROVES...CENTRAL GARDENS...BEAUMONT...
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...VIDOR...MAURICEVILLE...BRIDGE CITY...

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT 829 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MOVING OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MOST OF JEFFERSON AND ORANGE
COUNTIES.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. TURN AROUND DONT DROWNED.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN LAKE
CHARLES.

LAT...LON 2989 9438 2989 9439 3009 9442 3018 9416
3016 9411 3021 9408 3024 9397 3024 9379
3000 9379 2995 9385 2983 9394 2978 9392
2971 9395 2967 9411 2957 9434

[southerngale]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
903 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WILDWOOD...THICKET...SOUR LAKE...
SILSBEE...SARATOGA...LUMBERTON...KOUNTZE...
JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...KIRBYVILLE...JASPER...EVADALE...
BUNA...
NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TOLEDO BEND DAM...NEWTON...
DEWEYVILLE...CALL...BURKEVILLE...BON WEIR...
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MAURICEVILLE...
TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WOODVILLE...WARREN...TOWN BLUFF...
ROCKLAND...FRED...COLMESNEIL...CHESTER...

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT 829 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO VILLAGE
MILLS...WIERGATE...SPURGER...SAM RAYBURN DAM...ROGANVILLE...MT
UNION...MAGNOLIA SPRINGS...JAMESTOWN...IVANHOE...HONEY ISLAND...
HOLLY SPRINGS...HILLISTER...FARRSVILLE...BROOKELAND AND BLEAKWOOD.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER
GROUND.

LAT...LON 3050 9455 3102 9466 3103 9447 3112 9405
3115 9401 3120 9354 3101 9357 3083 9355
3055 9373 3044 9370 3041 9375 3034 9376
3025 9370 3016 9411 3019 9420 3017 9427
3010 9438 3012 9461 3048 9473

[Diva]

Orange County is getting it now! Heavy, heavy rain with thunder and lightning.