Caribbean - Central America Weather

[tropicana]

yup, 1.2mm has fallen at Grantley Adams, Barbados! A little is better than nothing

[Gustywind]

yup, 1.2mm has fallen at Grantley Adams, Barbados! A little is better than nothing

Yeah hopefully ! Let's hope that this trend will continue at Barbados...

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST SUN MAR 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
MID WEEK AND MAINTAIN A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN. RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BREAK DOWN BY FRIDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH PR AND USVI NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OF MOVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AT AROUND SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST GENERATING SOME PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A
FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS.

BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE ON EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO REACH OUR
NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS. THESE SWELLS WILL GENERATE LARGE
BREAKING WAVE AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
PASSING SHRA...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST
AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH ABOUT 28/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...THE BUOY 41047 THAT IS ABOUT 620 MILES NNW FROM PUERTO
RICO IS ALREADY REPORTING SEAS OF 12 FEET AT AROUND 12 SECONDS.
THIS SWELL WILL BE REACHING OUR LOCAL WATERS AT AROUND 26
HOURS...MUCH EARLIER THAN THE WW3 SUGGESTED THEREFORE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS ON MONDAY MORNING AND THE NEAR ATLANTIC WATERS...INCLUDING
ALL LOCAL PASSAGES...ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. MARINERS AND BEACH
GOERS SHOULD MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SWELL AS HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED TO BE ISSUE FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL
SECTIONS BETWEEN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

[tropicana]

TRINIDAD UPDATE: Sun Mar 28 2010

DAY # 34 of Heatwave
Feb 23-Mar 28 *and counting... daily highs at or over 33.7C 93F, an unprecedented hot spell unusual even for the tropics

More heat, as temperatures soared again to 34.3C 94F at Piarco Airport , Central Trinidad Sunday afternoon. Generally fair weather continues across the Caribbean today, as a ridge of high pressure continued to inhibit shower development. A few spotty showers were detected across Barbados overnight. High clouds continued to stream off of the South American mainland and across Trinidad but were not rain-producing.

Since Feb 23, the temperature at Piarco Airport has reached or exceeded 33.7C 93F everyday, a period of 34 days, unprecedented even for the tropics.

[Macrocane]

A late season cold front will reach Central America and will produce weak to moderate northerly winds on Tuesday. Here's what the TWD says:

GAP WINDS...
WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN THE GULFS OF
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA MON MORNING...A NEW COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL USHER
IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N TO NE WINDS
WILL REACH NEAR STORM FORCE MON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE BY TUE AFTERNOON. THIS SAME COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA ON TUE AND BRING
WINDS BACK TO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO.

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Summary
Sun Mar 28 2010

Today's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, Trinidad 34.3C 94F
Crown Point, Tobago 31.0C 88F
Point Salines, Grenada 29.7C 86F 2.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.9 C 88F 1.2mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 30.9C 87F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.6C 87F 3.8mm
Hewanorra, St Lucia 30.9C 88F 0.3mm
Vigie, St Lucia 31.7C 89F 0.6mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 30.0C 86F 15mm
Canefield, Dominica 32.1C 90F 11.8mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.0C 88F 0.8mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 31.7C 89F 0.4mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 29.8C 86F 0.6mm
West End, Anguilla 30.6C 87F
VC Bird, Antigua 30.2C 86F 0.2mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.1C 88F

[cycloneye]

Small Craft Advisory in effect

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
423 PM AST SUN MAR 28 2010

...NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS ON
MONDAY MORNING...

.MARINE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE ON MONDAY AS A
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO REACH OUR NORTHERN EXPOSED COAST
INCLUDING ALL LOCAL PASSAGES. ALTHOUGH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM AST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM AST
WEDNESDAY.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE ON MONDAY AS A
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO REACH OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning fellow Caribbean and Centralamerican friends.

It looks like the beaches will not be the best place to be in the comming days as the swells and rip currents will be the rule.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
359 AM AST MON MAR 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
MID WEEK AND MAINTAIN A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN. RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BREAK DOWN BY FRIDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH PR AND USVI NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH H7-H5 HIGH PARKED
OVER THE AREA. EVEN UNDER THIS DRY PATTERN...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS LIKE THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLD AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVR WRN PR.
ANTICIPATING LESS COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON THAN YDAY AS PWAT VALUES
REMAIN VERY LOW (AROUND AN INCH) FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH A
NORTHWARD SHIFT ON THE CONVECTION AS WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY
AND PERHAPS A SLIGHT NORTH OF DUE EAST.

MODELS STILL SHOW A SMALL SURGE IN MOISTURE FOR MID WEEK BUT THEY
CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN TIMING. LOOKS LIKE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
FOR WED DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE AND A WEAKER CAP BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT.

BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY AS RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND CDFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. CDFNT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA FRI NIGHT WITH A COOLER MUCH DRIER AIR MASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 29/16Z. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH ABOUT 29/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WITH SCA
CONDITIONS AND LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION EXPECTED. BUOY 41043
INDICATING A 15-SEC SWELL AROUND 4.5 FT. WILL ISSUE HSA STARTING
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU.

[Macrocane]

Good morning. Higher than normal minimum temperatures have been registered today in El Salvador thankfully the northerly winds have begun earlier than expected and are already blowing in Central America and they will bring lower temperatures on the next couple of days. The minimum temperatures this morning in some salvadoran places:

Santa Ana 23.2°C/73.8°F
San Salvador 21.8°C/71.2°F
Las Pilas 13.7°C/56.7°F
San Miguel 24°C/75.2°F

In other centralamerican cities:

Guatemala, Guatemala 16°C/61°F
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C/61°F
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C/75°F
San Jose, Costa Rica 18°C/64°F

And the excerpt from the TWD that talks about the cold front and northerly winds:

WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN AROUND 20 KT
IN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA THROUGH WED MORNING...A NEW
COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS
USHERED IN NLY GALES THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N TO NE
WINDS WILL REACH NEAR STORM FORCE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY TUE AFTERNOON. THIS SAME
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
FONSECA ON TUE AND BRING WINDS BACK TO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TUE.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

High Surf advisory in effect

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
128 PM AST MON MAR 29 2010

...LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-VIZ001-300130-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.Y.0010.100329T2300Z-100401T2200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
128 PM AST MON MAR 29 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM AST THURSDAY...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM AST THURSDAY.

LARGE NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT BREAKING WAVE ACTION
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TOMORROW
BUT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THE ATLANTIC / CARIBBEAN WATERS ALONG THE NORTH / SOUTH FACING

...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL ATLANTIC /
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ALL OPEN PASSAGES...

THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL PRODUCE LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO
12 FEET OR HIGHER ALONG THE LOCAL REEFS...BEACHES AND SHOALS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT
PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE
BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE
THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO
SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING
WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES
INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY
OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH EROSION
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 8:47 PM AST TONIGHT AT 1.7 FEET. MAGENS BAY ST
THOMAS: 8:46 PM AST TONIGHT AT 1.0 FEET.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
343 PM AST MON MAR 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME THROUGH MID WEEK AND WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HELP SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE AIR MASS CONTINUE. THERE WILL STILL BE PATCHES/BANDS OF
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME AND
INTERACTING WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS...BUT NO REAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL SEEMS DESTINED TO
MOVE RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...BUT NO LONG LASTING...HEAVY RAINFALL
IS FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
PASSING SHRA...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST
AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH ABOUT 29/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
TONIGHT...PEAKING ON TUESDAY AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS AT 6 PM AST THIS
EVENING.

[cycloneye]

With the High Surf Advisory in effect another tragedy has occured in the north coast of Puerto Rico where a man was swept away by rip currents on Sunday and still as I type this post,he has not been found.

http://www.elnuevodia.com/fotogaleria/692801/

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Summary
Mon MAR 29 2010

Today's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, Trinidad 34.8C 95F
Crown Point, Tobago 30.8C 88F trace
Point Salines, Grenada 30.6C 87F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.1C 88F 0.5mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.4C 86F
Hewanorra, St Lucia 31.0C 88F 1.0mm
Vigie, St Lucia 31.5C 89F trace
Melville Hall, Dominica 30.5C 87F 0.2mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.7C 89F
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 31.7C 89F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.4C 86F
West End, Anguilla 30.6C 87F
VC Bird, Antigua 30.1C 86F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.1C 88F trace

Hato, Curacao 32.1C 90F 0.5mm
Flamingo, Bonaire 31.0C 88F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 32.4C 90F

Freeport, Grand Bahama 47mm * up til 2pm with at least 2 tornadoes touching down in the NW Bahamas late this morning. This was the same weather system that impacted Central and South Florida Sunday night and Monday morning

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

Beaches continue to be unsafe today as the rip currents continue.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST TUE MAR 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BREAK DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. THIS HELP PUSH A
CDFNT THROUGH PR AND THE USVI FRI NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY KEEPING
THINGS FAIRLY DRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INCREASING MOISTURE
STARTING WED AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRI HOWEVER LATEST TPW IMAGERY
DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL SIG MOISTURE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE TROP
ATLC. AS RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN THU AND CAP WEAKENS WE SHOULD
SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. STILL APPEARS BEST
CHANCE WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DEEP
CONVECTION POSSIBLE. CDFNT PLOWS THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS FOR SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL
TAFS SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
PASS OVER TNCM AND TKPK DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEREFORE...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THEN AFTER 18Z...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER TJBQ AND
TJMZ THROUGH ABOUT 30/21Z.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE MODELS UNDERESTIMATING SWELL HEIGHTS BY AS MUCH
AS 1.5 FEET PER LATEST OBS FROM BUOY 41043 WHICH SHOWS 8.5 FT SWELLS.
HOWEVER...LOOKING AT SWELL HEIGHT CHANGE NOMOGRAM THIS DOES NOT
RESULT IN A SIG CHANGE IN OUR WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST. SO 7-9 FT FOR
TOTAL SEAS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS. SWELLS
WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE OVR THE
NEXT SVRL DAYS. SO HAZARDOUS SEAS AND SIG BREAKING WAVE ACTION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory continues in effect

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1250 PM AST TUE MAR 30 2010

...LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-VIZ001-310200-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-100401T2200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
1250 PM AST TUE MAR 30 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY.

LARGE NORTH SWELLS WILL PEAK ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BREAKING WAVE ACTION POSING A
THREAT TO LIFE WITHIN THE SURF ZONE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS ALONG THE NORTH FACING BEACHES AND OPEN
PASSAGES

...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND ALL OPEN PASSAGES...

BREAKING WAVES OF 9 TO 13 FEET WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE LOCAL
REEFS...BEACHES AND SHOALS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY.

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT
PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE
BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE
THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO
SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING
WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES
INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY
OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH EROSION
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 8:56 AM AST TUESDAY AT 1.2 FEET AND 9:42 PM AT
1.7 FEET.

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 7:58 AM AST TUESDAY AT 0.5 FEET AND 9:45 PM AT
1.1 FEET.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST TUE MAR 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME THROUGH MID WEEK AND WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FLATTEN AND BREAK DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED
TO HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY THURSDAY ALSO...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS CONTINUE. THERE WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT MORE FREQUENT PATCHES/BANDS OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME AND INTERACTING WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...BUT
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL SEEMS DESTINED TO MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME AND SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS...BUT NO LONG LASTING...HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORESEEN. A
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS AGAIN INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN JUAN LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED A SCORCHING 93 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS READING FELL SHORT OF THE RECORD FOR
THIS DATE OF 95 DEGREES SET IN 1984.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
ABOUT 30/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS HAVE PEAKED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...BUT WILL BE
VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MAINTAINING
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...
WAVE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT ANOTHER 5 TO 7 FOOT...MODERATE TO
LONG PERIOD...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WITH THE ONGOING SWELL EVENT STILL IN PROGRESS...WE
DECIDED TO LEAVE THESE SWELLS OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW AND ALLOW
MODELS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.

HOWEVER...ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE REMINDED THAT THESE
LONG PERIOD...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
VERY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...AND SHOULD BE
TAKEN VERY SERIOUSLY. BEFORE GOING INTO THE WATER THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE CHECK
WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS AND HEED ALL ADVISORIES AND RECOMMENDATIONS.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DURING THIS LONG SPELL OF VERY DRY WEATHER...ALL
LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE AGAIN REMINDED...TO PLEASE USE
EXTRA CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR FIRES AND SAFELY DISCARD ANY
FLAMMABLE MATERIALS. LOCAL FIRE DANGERS ARE STEADILY INCREASING.

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Summary
Tue Mar 30 2010

Today's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, Trinidad 34.4C 94F
Crown Point, Tobago 31.5C 89F 1.6mm
Point Salines, Grenada 30.4C 86F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.1C 88F 0.4mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.3C 88F 2.8mm
Hewanorra, St Lucia 32.5C 91F trace
Vigie, St Lucia 32.2C 90F trace
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.7C 86F 4.0mm
Canefield, Dominica 32.0C 90F 1.5mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.8C 89F 1.6mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 31.5C 89F 0.6mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 32.0C 90F 0.2mm
West End, Anguilla 31.2C 88F
VC Bird, Antigua 30.9C 87F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 33.9C 93F

Hato, Curacao 31.7C 89F
Flamingo, Bonaire 32.3C 90F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 32.5C 91F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 27.1C 81F
Kingston, Jamaica 31.0C 88F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.8C 87F 43.0mm
Nassau, Bahamas 23.5C 74F 2.8mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 19.5C 67F 11.7mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST WED MAR 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL MAINTAIN AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY FAIR AND A MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS TODAY. THE RIDGE IS HOWEVER EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN AND ERODE ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC...AND SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY SURFACE
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY
WHILE WEAKENING...WITH THE TAIL END/SHEARLINE...AND FRONTAL REMNANTS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC. THIS IN TURN WILL BRING
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY TO HELP INDUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS THE PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD STEER THE CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IF ANY ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A GRADUAL
SHIFT IN THE OVERALL WIND FLOW WITH THE APPROACH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. DURING
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK EXPECT THE WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE TO SPREAD
FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE
THE EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...EXCEPT FOR THE SHIFT
IN WIND FLOW NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...OTHER THAN BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ISLANDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME EARLY MORNING PASSING SHRA AND PATCHES OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLDS LYRS BTW 018-100K FT WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE FLYING AREA BETWEEN PR AND THE USVI AT LEAST UNTIL
31/12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE FCST MAINLY OVER TJBQ AND TJMZ FM
31/18Z-31/22Z.

[cycloneye]

I recieved this message via twitter from the National Hurricane Conference and it relates to one nation in the Caribbean that is trying to come back after the earthquake.



NHC dir Bill Read says his #1 concern for this season is for Haiti. Will issue heightened briefings for that nation this season.